Get started

Housing_market

USHPI / US House Price Index US House Price Index (USHPI) Analysis: The chart indicates that after a prolonged period of growth, the US housing market is approaching a critical point. The index is currently at its peak, but there are strong indications of an impending decline. Short-Term Outlook: As we approach early 2025, the chart suggests a major downturn in housing prices. The red arrow points to the anticipated decline, with the index potentially dropping to a range between 259.36 and 299.29 points. This decline reflects a significant correction in the housing market, which could be driven by various factors, including rising interest rates, reduced consumer affordability, and broader economic challenges. Mid to Long-Term Outlook: Following this decline, the chart predicts a recovery period starting around 2027, with a potential rebound in housing prices, as indicated by the green arrow. This recovery is expected to continue into the 2030s, with the market gradually regaining strength. Key Considerations: Economic Conditions: The projected downturn coincides with a period of economic instability, possibly driven by higher interest rates and a strained economy. This could result in decreased demand for housing, leading to lower prices. Market Timing: For those looking to invest in real estate, the period from 2027 onwards might present an excellent buying opportunity, as prices begin to recover from the expected lows. Long-Term Strategy: The long-term outlook suggests that the market will eventually recover, but the initial phase of the 2025 downturn could be severe, with a prolonged period of lower prices.
ECONOMICS:USHPIShort
by trushkovskiy
US HOUSING MARKET CRASHUS Real Estate Price Index Analysis: The chart illustrates a long-term upward trend in the US real estate market, with prices consistently climbing over the years. However, we are now approaching a critical phase that requires close attention. Pre-Election Period and Mid-2025 Outlook: As we move towards the upcoming elections and into mid-2025, real estate prices in the US are expected to continue their ascent. This trend will be heavily influenced by consumer purchasing power and interest rates on loans, which individuals should monitor separately. The continued growth is driven by demand, but this is likely to face significant headwinds soon. Impending Crisis in 2025: As we enter 2025, the real estate market is on the brink of a major crisis. Prices are predicted to plummet, potentially falling to an average of $380,000 per home. If prices break below this level and sustain, we could see a further drop, possibly revisiting the 2020 price levels where the average home price ranged between $280,000 and $300,000. Market Correction and Future Growth: The market is expected to correct by approximately 30%, after which it should resume its growth trajectory. This correction will be tied to the growing unaffordability of new homes for the average family, as credit interest rates rise to levels beyond the reach of many. Consequently, more people will opt to rent rather than buy, leading to an oversupply in the market as homeowners struggle to keep up with mortgage payments. With the increasing number of properties flooding the market and demand not keeping pace, the imbalance will push prices down. Additionally, global military conflicts and the policies of the Democratic Party, should they win the election again, will likely lead to a prolonged two-year recession from early 2025 to the end of 2026. Real estate will be one of the last sectors to recover from this crisis. Strategic Buying Opportunity: Given this outlook, I anticipate a market bottom by the end of 2026, making early 2027 the optimal time to purchase real estate in the US. This period should offer the best prices before the market stabilizes and begins its next growth phase.
ECONOMICS:USSFHPShort
by trushkovskiy
Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders, Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
MACRO MONDAY 21~NAHB Housing Market IndexMACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate their current single-family sales, sales prospects over the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. The NAHB Builders consists of more than more than 700 state and local associations with 140,000 members. According to the NAHB these builders account for some 80% of the new homes built in the U.S. Correlation with U.S. Housing Starts The HMI displays a close correlation with “U.S. Housing Starts”. U.S Housing starts are a broader measure of new residential construction for privately owned homes which includes multi-family housing (units & apartment complexes). U.S. Housing Starts is supplied monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau from surveys conducted and is considered a key economic indicator of the overall housing sector. The release of U.S. Housing Starts is the day after the HMI, so the HMI gives us a day head start on the 11thbusiness day of each month (16th Nov), with Housing Starts released on the 12th business day (17th Nov). The correlation between the HMI and the U.S. Housing Starts: The NAHB release on Thurs 16thNov (11th Business Day) came in at 34 ▫️ HMI readings above 50 reflect a generally favorable market view and outlook in the housing sector whilst a reading below 50 indicates weakness in the housing sector. ▫️ Since July 2023 the HMI has fallen from 56 down to 34. ▫️ The HMI registered an all-time high reading in November 2020 at 90 and since then has made a series of lower highs over 32 months. These lower highs combined with a reading below 50 do not bode well on the recession front as you can see from the below chart (red arrows). Similar to recent months, from May – Aug 1989 the HMI peaked its head above the 50 level for these four summer months before tanking down to 20. From May – Aug 2023 the HMI briefly rose above the 50 level in similar fashion and appears to now be reducing at a rapid rate. An interesting level to watch will be the diagonal support line at approx. 31 (dashed line). If held it would be a higher low and could indicate a pause in the decline. A level to keep an eye on because if lost it means we have consistently made lower lows and lower highs. Not a good look at all and we would be eyeing the 20 level in such a scenario. US Housing Starts ▫️ US Housing Starts release on Friday 17th Nov (12th Business Day) which provides for Octobers figures came in higher than expected at 1,372K vs the 1,350K estimate. Building Permits came in higher than expected at 1,487K vs the 1,450K estimate. ▫️ Given that the HMI is in less than favorable territory at 34 (HMI only accounts for single family homes), the higher than expected US Housing Starts could be an indication that larger multi-family housing (units and apartments) are being built at a greater rate than single-family houses. In any event US Housing Starts has been in decline since April 2022 In summary the charts suggest the long term trend for both the NAHB and US Housing Starts are in decline with multi-unit properties (Apartments) being more rapidly built in recent months than individual homes. We will keep an eye on the these metrics going forward and are now aware we can get a days advance indication from NAHB ahead of US Housing Starts being released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by PukaCharts
4
House Prices have likely reached a topParty's over. Now comes the bill. Housing prices have experienced an artificial inflated price surge from march 2020 that needs to be corrected. RSI sell signal MACD just crossed the signal and it's bound to change direction. Stochastic RSI at virtual 0 also signals a possible change to a bear market that is still yet to occur, which often happens at a second bounce to a lower high. First target is 345. Using 2008 as reference price index can go as low as 310, to the 0.38 retracement, however back then - from the shock reaction to the bubble bursting - we didn't experience the recession we would have had if the Fed didn't eased the economy, quantitatively speaking, if you know what I mean. If the Fed lets the house market drive its natural course, and if we experience a deflationary economy in the mean time, I wouldn't be surprised if we went as low as 290 or 260 on a longer term. DYOR
ECONOMICS:USHPIShort
by Zerkaalo
U.S. Building Permits U.S Building Permits Rep: 1.495m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅ Exp: 1.480m Prev: 1.467m This chart is very similar to the Housing Starts chart I just shared in that it is in a long term uptrend since March 2009 (slightly before above charts April 2009). However there are a few differences. The drop in permits now versus 1998-2000 period is much much sharper. Like the U.S Housing Starts chart, lets watch the diagonal support and see IF we get a change of trend. What are U.S. Building Permits U.S. building permits are official approvals granted by local government authorities that authorize the construction, alteration, or demolition of structures within a specified jurisdiction. Worth noting that I shared the below chart earlier this week that seems to illustrate a sharp drop in New Home Sales which coincides with the sharp drop in permits above. Interestingly Existing homes sales appear to be increasing with this drop new home sales. Potentially with more existing homes (old supply) coming onto the market this may present a headwind for new permits and new homes going forward. With existing supply coming onto the market, you would think that this might help lower house prices, however demand and lower interest rates could offset this. Fascinating to watch this all play out Happy Thursday PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBP
by PukaCharts
U.S. Housing Starts U.S. Housing Starts Rep: 1,460m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅ Exp: 1.426m Prev: 1.525m (revised down from 1.560m) The chart illustrates that we are on a long term uptrend since April 2009 and this looks like a pull back similar to the pull back from 1998 - 2000 but on a large scale. If we lose the diagonal support I think this would show a real shift in the structure and trend. What’s included in U.S. Housing Starts? U.S. Housing Starts refer to the number of new residential construction projects on which construction has begun during a specific period, usually reported on a monthly basis. The data includes Single-Family homes, Multifamily homes (apartments), Building Permits (houses approved with construction not necessarily started by likely imminent) and house build completions. HAVE A FUPPIN GREAT DAY PUKA
ECONOMICS:USHST
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
Editors' picks
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
30Y: Housing Cost Jumps Amid Falling Headline InflationCBOT: 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) As a result of runaway inflation and rising interest rates, US home buyers are confronted by high home prices, high down payments, and high monthly mortgage payments. A sneak peek into official housing market data between 2021 and 2023: • Median sales price of houses sold in the US ( FRED:MSPUS ) was $436,800 in the first quarter of 2023, per Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED); • The median home price was $433,100 in Q1 2022 and $369,800 in Q1 2021. In the span of merely two years, home price jumped 18.1%; • Thirty-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.81% on July 6th ( FRED:MORTGAGE30US ); • The same mortgage was quoted at 5.30% a year ago and only 2.90% in July 2021. A typical family of four living in the State of Illinois earned a median income of $113,649 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s survey data. The example cited below illustrates the dramatic rise in housing cost from a family perspective: • If a 30-year-fixed mortgage is taken with a 20% down payment, the upfront cost is $87,360 (20% of FRED:MSPUS at $436,800), which is up $13,400 or 18.1% from two years ago; • Assuming the family’s take-home pay is 75% of gross income, their after-tax income would be $85,237 per year, or $7,103 per month; • Down payment already exceeded annual income. Adding in closing fees, moving cost, appliances and new furniture, upfront home investment could be well over $100K; • Using a mortgage calculator, we find that monthly mortgage payments were $1,724 if the home was bought two years ago; this equates to 24.3% of take-home pay; • New monthly payments would be $2,682, up sharply by 55.6%; mortgage expense now takes up 40.3% of the family’s after-tax income! This shows that an average US family these days can’t afford a median-price new home. A Tale of Two Cities The sharp increase in housing cost flies in the face of official US inflation data. June CPI report will be released on Wednesday. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0% from 4.0% and core CPI to be lowered to 5.0% from 5.3% in May. The subset of inflation data shows Shelter cost growing at 8.0% annual rate in May. This doubles the headline CPI but is still a vast understatement for the soaring housing cost. So, where is the disconnection? Here is my theory. High mortgage rates have a bigger impact on mortgage payments than home price appreciation. Based on my calculation, each 1% increase in interest rate would translate into 9% more in monthly mortgage payments. In our example, mortgage rate grew about 4% from 2021 to 2023, and a mortgage is taken on a home priced at 18% higher. The resulting monthly payments jumped 55.6%. The compounding effect of higher prices and higher rates is fatal. I do not foresee either dropping in a meaningful way by next year. Therefore, do not expect the lower inflation to provide immediate relief to home buyers. Housing Market is not likely to crash US new home sales ( ECONOMICS:USNHS ) peaked at 1 million units in October 2021. Since then, it has nosedived and almost cut in half to 550K units by September 2022. Existing home sales ( ECONOMICS:USEHS ) followed a similar trend. It topped out at 6.6 million units in August 2020, and dropped to 4.0 million units in January 2023. Despite the hurdles facing home buyers, the US housing market appears to have recovered. New home sales reached 763K units in May, up nearly 12% from April. Existing home sales were 4.3 million units, up 300K from the beginning of the year. How could the housing market hold up? Isn’t homeownership already beyond reach? According to the National Association of Realtors, 65.5% of US families are homeowners. We could say that those with a “lock-in” rate are insulated from rising housing costs. Homeowners are “trapped” in their home in a rising interest rate environment. If they sell their houses and buy new ones, they will forfeit their 3% mortgage. This explains why existing home sales recovers at a much slower pace than new home sales. Low inventory and fewer sellers relative to buyers, together keep the housing market going strong. Prospective home buyers are not so lucky. But they have options. First is to lower their expectation and buy a smaller home; Second is to downgrade from single family home to townhouse or condominium. Finally, postpone home purchases and continue to rent. Several Economists predicting a housing market crash as big as the 2008 Subprime crisis. I think the Big Shorts would be disappointed this time. Prior to 2008, up to one third of homeowners had adjustable-rate mortgages. They survived rate-reset only because their house value went up. When it didn’t, they couldn’t refinance and defaulted on their loan. These days, adjustable-rate accounts for just 5% of all mortgages. The housing market is healthier now. FRED data shows the mortgage delinquency rate at 1.73% in Q1 2023, and the rate has been declining consistently for seven quarters. How Is This Relevant for Trading? I hold the view that the US housing market is very resilient. As long as the job market does not deteriorate, it could weather significant challenges including higher interest rates, indicating that the demand for home mortgages would stay strong. Whether you buy a new home or an existing one, a single-family home, a townhouse, a condo, or a trailer home, chances are you need a mortgage. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the most popular type of home loans in the US. Hence, this is where we should find solutions to manage interest rate risk. Interest rate data shows that the 30-year fixed rate is not closely correlated to the Fed’s interest rate decisions. In the past 12 months, the Fed Funds rate gained 130%, while the 30-year Fixed only moved up 28%. Since last November, the Fed raised interest rates five times, but the 30-year Fixed stayed relatively unchanged. My theory is that the decline in home sales countered the effect of rising funding cost, putting the mortgage rates in sideway moves. Now that the housing market recovers, 30-year Fixed could be on the way up. The July FOMC meeting could provide a boost if the Fed raises 25 bp as the market predicts. There is no liquid financial instrument on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. However, it is closely correlated to the 30-year Treasury yield. The mortgage rate currently is priced at 2.8% above the Treasury yield. The spread appears to be stable over time. If we are bullish on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, we could consider the following: One, to set up a short position on CBOT Treasury Bond Futures ( $ZB ). Remember that bond price and yield are inversely related. Rising yield would cause the bond to lose value. Each Treasury Bond futures contract has a face value of $100,000. The price quotation is based on $100 par value. The minimum tick is 1/32 of one point (0.03125), or 1,000/32 = $31.25. SEP contract (ZBU3) is quoted $123 and 22/32 on Monday July 10th. Two, to set up a long position on CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( $30Y ). On July 10th, the August contract is quoted 4.029%. Each 30Y contract has a notional value of interest rate times 1000 index points. A move by a minimum tick of 0.001 index point would result in a gain or loss of $1 per contract. What’s the difference between these two? Treasury bond futures are very liquid. It traded 387,170 contracts and had an Open Interest of 1.25 million on July 7th. Micro Yield Futures are more intuitive. If yield goes up, futures price goes up too. The contract is catered to individual investors. Its margin requirement is $290, compared to $4,200 for the bond futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Home Depot - Pump to $327 incoming🐂 Trade Idea: Long - HD 🔥 Account Risk: 1.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Knockout / Option 🔍 Entry: +/- 306.27 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 284.29 (or 294.65 for aggressive trade) 🎯 Take-Profit: 327.27 (50%) 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨 If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button! — Home Depot is in a larger uptrend since Oct. 2016 (yellow trend line) but consolidates sideways since Feb 2023 despite a take-off situation in the housing market - at least when it comes to permits. Home Depot is considered as a stock that should benefit from those situations. Technically we can see that the bottom support of the current consolidation zone (big green box) was breached only one time immediately retracing in the consolidation box with high volume. This indicates a stronger support there. Since beginning of June we now entered into a much smaller consolidation box (little green box) on the upper right corner of the bigger zone. Those multiple tests of the upper resistance and the share price remaining ever closer to resistance indicate an upward breakout. If you’re a pre break-out trader you might want to jump in with a tight stop around 294. All others should wait for daily confirmation outside the box possible at 306. Don’t forget earnings in August if you take the trade. — Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only. Nevertheless, no liability can be assumed for the correctness in each individual case. Should visitors to this site adopt the content provided as their own or follow any advice given, they act on their own responsibility.
NYSE:HDLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
BLDR (Long) - lovely chart, lovely fundamentalsFundamentals Builders FirstSource is in a robust financial situation and very cheaply valued (P/E = 4.6, P/S = 0.6) Since the start of 2011, its revenue has tripled and earnings grew by almost 900%! Even last year when the market was puking, its earning grew by 60% Their profitability is also good with ROE = 55.4% (Industry = 17.9%) and net profit margins at 12.5% The stock is very much tied to the housing sector (which is also the main caveat), so if the housing market were to absolutely fall off the cliff (which is not completely unlikely), the stock would suffer. However, estimates already show BLDR's earnings falling in the next two years (meaning they have already been priced) and the stock is still rising, suggesting a lot of internal strength Additionally, the managers announced a share buyback program and we might see them buying 10% of the public shares by the end of 2023, which would serve as a strong tailwind for the stock price However, be mindful of the housing market (I suggest watching the chart of house builders - ticker: XHB) Technicals Technicals look like from a textbook On a weekly we can see a massive rounding base , suggesting a long-term accumulation; the break was not the cleanest, but the price action of the last few days suggest a follow-through in price Relative strength to the overall industry is also pretty impressive and the stock clearly outperforms the rest of its industry Trade The stock has gone a bit further from the breakout point , but it pulled back today and it is yet not too far as for it to be unprofitable to enter As a stop-loss , I would use the most recent low on a daily The stock seems very suitable for a short-term trade as well as a longer term investment As i mentioned before, be mindful of the housing market and commodity prices (lumber, copper etc.). The stock is correlated to both Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
NYSE:BLDRLong
by jurajholik
1
How a Housing Market Crash Equals New Stock Market HighsTraders, I believe this chart is so important it warrants revisiting the data. Indeed, the fed has to be cognizant of this same data and is most certainly is watching it closely. Therefore, we must do the same. In this video, I am going to explain why the housing market data, even though it's week, supports my thesis of a blow-off top in the stock markets this summer. Stew ⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️ My Housing Market Chart: www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by stewdamus
1
HOUSING MARKET BOTTOM? I think so, such a beautiful chart. I noticed Reits having their largest trades EVER in the darkpools yesterday. This is a beautiful chart of Cubesmart and look at it. Housing broke resistance from 2007 in April and has now comeback to test it in Sept-Dec all while institutations are putting out paid ads to spread the doom and gloom. Everyone and their mother is repeating the housing shock. Well if this support holds which I think it will we're in for another housing boom until we get another blowoff top. Everything here just lines up so well for a market bottom in general, I think the markets as a whole should rise for at least a couple years.
NYSE:CUBELong
by ghengiskahnspermshot
DRV - Short Real Estate NowMortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices. Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. DRV is an easy ETF symbol to broadly short the real estate market with - I recommend sitting on the thing for several months. Shorting bonds directly works, but will vary by your broker for availability. AMEX:DRV
AMEX:DRVShort
by NordicVetMBA
XHB ! US housing market Burst- Upcoming Recession-BTC 100K+I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and stayed in a bear market 511-595 days. After the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble US great recession started from December 2007 to June 2009. XHB dumped 73% and bottomed at 8$ in 2009. I think the current situation is the same and the same scenario will play out if XHB loses previous swing low and key support/50-52$/. It has already dumped and lost key trendline 60-61$ then pumped 32%. I putted alarm at 50-52$ zone and waiting for break down in coming months, I history repeats the same way, XHB will break down in Q2-2023 /approximately in April-June 2023/ and 140 days later a big recession starts. I think at the same time SPX and BTC will top as well. But before that my best case and most bullish scenario for BTC is new ATH and even 120-145K top target. I'm sure BTC has already topped at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 based on my analysis. You can check them looking at bellow attached files. Later I will post my other scenarios for BTC.
AMEX:XHBLong
by ergal91
2008 vs 2022 I found a lot of similarity's between this crash and the 2008 financial crisis stock market crash. Quick TA summary: 1. We have the same kind of downwards parallel channel 2. The chart of the 2022 crash so far fits pretty well into the 2008 crash, the chart of the 2008 crash fits pretty well into today's chart. Quick Fundamental summary: There are so many reasons why the economy could have a meltdown. I wrote about it last year in November in my previous post, but there are other things to talk about now: 1. The FED changing the definition of a recession. The US GDP came in at -0.9% for Q2, which is the second consecutive quarter in a row that the FED published negative GDP growth. Here is how we actually define a recession, like we have always done: "Experts declare a recession when a nation’s economy experiences negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising levels of unemployment, falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time. Recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle—or the regular cadence of expansion and contraction that occurs in a nation’s economy". I mean come on guys, these terms/indicators exists so that governments and central banks can change their policy's on time. But instead of actually changing their policy to a recession policy, they simply deny the recession and even try to change the definition of it. We have heard the "this time is different" enough times and it has so far always lead to real problems. This has to do with the fact that there are going to be new elections soon, so denying the recession is a convenient thing for them to do. 2. The biggest drop in Average and Median New US Home prices since 2008. April Median: $457,000 and June Median: $402,400 this is a decline of 11.95% in the past 2 months. April Average: $569,300 and June Average: $456,800 this is a decline of 19,76% in the past 2 months. 3. 40% of Americans Are Struggling to Pay Their Bills Right Now. "More Americans are struggling to pay their bills now more than any other time in 2022 — and possibly even since the pandemic began.For more than 91 million U.S. adults, affording typical household expenses is “somewhat difficult” or “very difficult,” according to data released this week by the Census Bureau. That accounts for 40% of the Americans who responded to the bureau's survey between June 29 and July 11. (If you include folks who took the survey but did not respond to that particular question, the portion is 36%.)" 4. Unfortunately inflation is not coming down, even though the FED is raising it's interest rates pretty aggressively. They told us that inflation was going to be temporary, but it wasn't. They have clearly underestimated the situation. 5. 80% of all US dollars in existence were printed in the last 22 months (from $4 trillion in January 2020 to $20 trillion in October 2021 (honestly what were they thinking, this isn't monopoly guys...) 6. US OIL en UK OIL have both dropped below $100. Every time this has happened we have gone into a recession, and most of the time the stock market had pretty significant losses. Gasoline prices are still abnormally high, as you noticed when you are refilling your car with fuel. 7. A lot of company's have been beating their EPS lately. However the expectations for EPS are like half of what the company's had been reporting from 6 to 9 months ago. 8. We are heading into September next month, which is statistically the worst month for stocks. The biggest crashes have happened in November. PE ratio's are still high so they have to come down. As of 4:00pm EDT Fri Aug 5, The current Shiller PE Ratio is 31.10. Mean: 16.96 Median: 15.88 As you can see we still have a long way down to go... 9. Food shortages for the following products: (1). Chickpeas 2. Wheat 3. Sugar 4. Avocados 5. Paper Goods 6. Canned Goods 7. Eggs and Meat 8. Pet Food 9. Baby Formula 10. Liquor Why Are These Items in Short Supply? "It’s because of labor shortages and supply-chain issues, from food manufacturers to grocery stores. There simply aren’t enough people to “make the goods, move the goods and sell the goods,” says Jim Dudlicek, a representative for the National Grocers Association. According to Parade, the recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia plays a role, with supply chains from Europe heavily disrupted. Labor shortages also continue, with people still out due to COVID-19 or resigning due to low wages and poor work conditions. In addition, supply is affected by more people cooking and eating at home, a trend that started at the onset of the pandemic. “Demand has been very, very high,” Denis says. Still, she doesn’t think there’s a reason for people to stockpile. She pointed to lumber as an example of a product that was extremely hard to get for a while, but has become more plentiful in recent months, and the food supply chain likely will rebound in a similar fashion, although it may take time." 10. Micheal Burry wrote: "Dead cat bounces are the most epic. 12 of the top 20 nasdaq 1-day rallies have happened during the 78% drop from 2000's top. 9 of the top 20 S&P500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top. Micheal Burry also wrote: RE: paradigm shifts/speculative peaks, the SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002's bottom in 2009, 17% lower than 1998's LTCM crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970's low in 1975. 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX at $1862. - Shiller PE of 16, nominal PE of 9. In historic range.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
11
Housing Market Boom / Crash Statistical AnalysisHousing market's median home value (for new homes) peaked 2 months ago at $457k. Total growth leading up to that point over the last 59 years, since 1963, was $439.3k. The last two years accounts for a significant portion of all growth, while the last two growth periods displayed more growth than all of which occurred during the 44 year period between 1963 and 2007 12.4% of all growth has been lost in the last 61 days, or 37% of what was gained in the last 2 years. Following the bailouts in 2008 we began to see recovery across markets, but starting around 2010 an exaggerated period of growth began. After the covid pandemic flash crash, that exaggerated growth skyrocketed, leading to an unsustainable market economy, especially in housing. The losses we've seen over the last 61 days may indicate the beginnings of an extended period of severe loss if markets are left to correct naturally, if not artificially bailed out yet again.
FRED:MSPNHSUSShort
by dudebruhwhoa
1