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Timing The Housing Market, Patterns Always (Win / Win Strategy)For over 2 years we've heavily referenced the NAIL ETF ( Provided by Direxion ) to get a better sense of the overall housing market. As a measure of context, our experience / trading background included heavy exposure in supporting MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) and ABS (Asset Backed Securities) reference data providers. This is in no-way investment advice. Needless to say, that with the right view, this particular security has been a pretty strong indicator on how the general housing and construction market will perform both in the short and long term. One question that we are constantly asked, is whether the support price has already been reached. Well, historically speaking the support price hovers around US$20 and then bounces to over US$95. As part of our general methodology, we focus on generating a high volume of trades with automation, this allows for compounded returns (huge fan of pyramiding). So, buying at the support price, could well be one long-term strategy once the price reaches the US$20 support (if one can manage the stress associated with short-term risk), should the price drop even further one could increase the position to average down for a more preferable price. On the other hand, we recommend that traders consider using two timeframes of reference for a guide on support and resistance levels. As an example, one could look at the long-term trend with 2–4-hour candlesticks across a large volume of ticks and then move to a shorter time-frame (such as the 15-minute candles) once a direction is established, to focus on directionally advantageous positions (either bullish or bearish outlook). This allows a swing-trader to remain in a position during times of volatility with a strong resolve based on back-tests that the future outcome will have some predictability. The reason for this post is that we find that many "newly minted" retail swing-traders are focused on the short-term gain and tend to have stop-losses triggered fairly quickly. If one where to consider the approach above, a more loosely defined (%) stop-limit would allow for improved returns contingent on one using the long-term outlook as a guide. Final Thoughts Regardless of your strategy, we recommend one always trades with stop-limits and profit targets (this can be established with the tradingview strategy-tester), and more importantly focus on consistency. There is no such thing as a silver bullet, but historical trends on etfs certainly do help with timing.
AMEX:NAILLong
by UltraAlgo
4
A Fork in the Road: How Will the Recession Affect Crypto?The more positive way of looking at LUNA, and other crypto disasters in general, is that these sorts of systemic problems eventually all get caught as the foundation falls underneath. In fiat, these sorts of issues get covered up, bailed-out, and hidden behind tools like quantitative easing as people get pushed out into the streets through inflation and housing scarcity and such. It's a more socially acceptable form of exploitation in a way - with the worst of them actually dipping into taxpayer money and public funds. Just ask the exploited classes about this stuff - they know all about it. Keep in mind that Bernie Madoff was able to get away with his racket for 17 years because the market generally always kept on going up. When the recession hits, we're going to start seeing the ugly undersides of what's been going on in fiat, too. Ponzi schemes are not exclusive to crypto, and there's a lot of pot calling the kettle black arguments floating around, especially in finance. The guilty conscience often attacks what they themselves are doing. The big question for crypto holders is what happens when the recession hits - there's primarily two different types of outlooks in the space right now. The pessimistic outlook is that when fiat goes down, so does crypto, as it has typically done for most of its runs. The optimistic outlook is that Bitcoin itself was born out of the recession and controversy of 2008, where it has experienced the biggest of its returns. Both are true, but how 2022 turns out will largely depend on how secure people are feeling about their money in general. A couple of things that make the economy of the US today unprecedented, compared to recessions in the past: - A historic 8%+ inflation rate which has not yet shown signs of slowing down. - Interest rates will likely be raised to the highest it's been in recent history (possibly 3%, but likely higher). - A massive 36% increase in money supply since 2020, mostly gone to government spending relating to COVID. - High costs of living and new remote work options driving record amounts of people out of the cities (where the housing prices are the most inflated). - The US government has been in massive debt for a while and have been using "fixes" like quantitative easing to kick the can down the road. It's been relying on money printing and taxing capital gains in order to pay off its bills but if the economy goes into a recession, that will no longer be an option. Some people say that this is the "day of reckoning" for the US economy coming that has long been overdue. Which way will the tides swing for crypto and Web3? Time will tell.
Long
by RyanTanaka
1
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole. What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RyanTanaka
2
How Developing Countries Predicted the Rise of the MetaverseThe market is down right now but these are also good times to take a look at what might be the "next big thing". Had you got into the metaverse a year ago, you will most likely be up right now. Otherwise, you're probably in the red. (Yes, even Bitcoin and Ethereum.) The metaverse is this year's clear winner in terms of performance, and it's not too surprising that a lot of big name brands have decided to try to get in on it, too. A lot of people claim that Zuckerberg's "Meta" was what sparked the metaverse craze, but if you look at AXS's chart it's pretty clear that the coin was climbing way before the media gave the idea any attention. A lot of innovations and early-adoption activities happen in lesser-known (often non-English speaking and developing) countries before making its way into the "mainstream", so to speak. Predicting long-term trends is not magic - you just need to know where to look.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
The Housing Market is About to Pop. How Does This Affect Crypto?The US Census Bureau recently published population numbers for cities across the US, and the numbers don't look too good: most large urban centers in the country have taken significant population losses in 2020-2021. Politicians and media pundits typically blame COVID and supply chain woes, though these trends were already happening even before the pandemic - the lockdown only accelerated what was already there. Los Angeles lost around 1% of its total population - which is already significant - but San Francisco and New York lost a staggering 6.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Most US urban centers have been struggling with a housing shortage crisis in the last few decades as housing costs, rents, and costs of living have been outpacing both inflation and wage growth exponentially since the financial crisis "recovery" in 2008. (This was around the time Bitcoin was invented, coincidentally.) In addition to rising crime, homelessness, and loss of quality of life, the well-paying jobs are also leaving the state citing high taxes and unfavorable business policies - giving people less reason to be there as well. The housing market is no different than other markets in that it operates on supply and demand . Housing advocates typically propose building more housing units (increase the supply) to bring costs down, but most cities have opted for the other "solution" - which is to bring costs down by decreasing the desirability of the city itself. (It's an unfortunate series of events, but it is what it is.) Nominal vs real pricing charts of US housing shows that listed prices are vastly inflated compared to its "real" value, which is contributing both to the bubble and the loss of quality in housing construction itself. San Francisco's Case-Shiller Index was chosen since it's objectively the most housing-inflated area right now, objectively speaking. The housing bubble is most likely to pop there, then cascade downwards onto other markets as people's faith in its growth starts to stagger. The reasons above (combined with the Fed's interest rate hikes this year) are why even Wall Street and big companies have taken an interest in crypto, NFTs, and metaverse assets lately, since they see it as a hedge against a weakened dollar and a recession (potentially a depression) looming in the horizon. At this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when". For crypto/metaverse investors, the thing to keep an eye on is the level of trust that the general public has in the banking system right now. When the housing bubble pops, it could potentially lead to a liquidity event of a magnitude never before seen, since technically there would be a lot cash sitting in people's hands, looking for places to invest. - The pessimistic outcome for crypto investors is the "money running scared" scenario - where panicked money runs back to the banks and other "conservative" investments assets (bonds, cash) that are seen to have less volatility overall. This may lead people to cash out and leave the crypto ecosystem altogether, causing a downturn in the asset class overall. Keep in mind, though, that housing, cash, and bonds have *traditionally* been seen as "reliable" investment choices, but in recent years those are the exact assets that have been inflating - which has lead many experts to question if they are functioning in the way it was originally intended overall. If that perception becomes shattered, a lot could change overnight. - The optimistic outcome for crypto investors is if the money that was intended for buying housing or other related assets becomes "free", potentially going into alternative assets, which includes crypto. Since a major housing bubble at this scale hasn't happened here there's not much data to show one way or another but we do know that the Evergrande crisis in China has had basically no (arguably inverse) effects on the crypto market as a whole. Panicked money may flow into crypto in ways never before if it's seen as a safe-haven against the turbulence of the housing market and the USD as a whole. Realistically, there will probably be a little bit of both going on, but being that the size of the US housing market is much bigger than the size of the crypto market cap, crypto needs much less of a % of money flowing inwards in order for it to grow. The housing market, on the other hand, has nowhere to go but down. Time will tell, but it would be advisable for people to be prudent about where to put their money this year, because a lot could happen very quickly as the United States faces its biggest financial crisis in decades in the near future.
FRED:SFXRSALong
by RyanTanaka
The Housing Market is About to Pop. How Does This Affect Crypto?The US Census Bureau recently published population numbers for cities across the US, and the numbers don't look too good: most large urban centers in the country have taken significant population losses in 2020-2021. Politicians and media pundits typically blame COVID and supply chain woes, though these trends were already happening even before the pandemic - the lockdown only accelerated what was already there. Los Angeles lost around 1% of its total population - which is already significant - but San Francisco and New York lost a staggering 6.7% and 6.9%, respectively. Most US urban centers have been struggling with a housing shortage crisis in the last few decades as housing costs, rents, and costs of living have been outpacing both inflation and wage growth exponentially since the financial crisis "recovery" in 2008. (This was around the time Bitcoin was invented, coincidentally.) In addition to rising crime, homelessness, and loss of quality of life, the well-paying jobs are also leaving the state citing high taxes and unfavorable business policies - giving people less reason to be there as well. The housing market is no different than other markets in that it operates on supply and demand. Housing advocates typically propose building more housing units (increase the supply) to bring costs down, but most cities have opted for the other "solution" - which is to bring costs down by decreasing the desirability of the city itself. (It's an unfortunate series of events, but it is what it is.) Nominal vs real pricing charts of US housing shows that listed prices are vastly inflated compared to its "real" value, which is contributing both to the bubble and the loss of quality in housing construction itself. San Francisco's Case-Shiller Index was chosen since it's objectively the most housing-inflated area right now, objectively speaking. The housing bubble is most likely to pop there, then cascade downwards onto other markets as people's faith in its growth starts to stagger. The reasons above (combined with the Fed's interest rate hikes this year) are why even Wall Street and big companies have taken an interest in crypto, NFTs, and metaverse assets lately, since they see it as a hedge against a weakened dollar and a recession (potentially a depression) looming in the horizon. At this point it's not a matter of "if", but "when". For crypto/metaverse investors, the thing to keep an eye on is the level of trust that the general public has in the banking system right now. When the housing bubble pops, it could potentially lead to a liquidity event of a magnitude never before seen, since technically there would be a lot cash sitting in people's hands, looking for places to invest. - The pessimistic outcome for crypto investors is the "money running scared" scenario - where panicked money runs back to the banks and other "conservative" investments assets (bonds, cash) that are seen to have less volatility overall. This may lead people to cash out and leave the crypto ecosystem altogether, causing a downturn in the asset class overall. Keep in mind, though, that housing, cash, and bonds have *traditionally* been seen as "reliable" investment choices, but in recent years those are the exact assets that have been inflating - which has lead many experts to question if they are functioning in the way it was originally intended overall. If that perception becomes shattered, a lot could change overnight. - The optimistic outcome for crypto investors is if the money that was intended for buying housing or other related assets becomes "free", potentially going into alternative assets, which includes crypto. Since a major housing bubble at this scale hasn't happened here there's not much data to show one way or another but we do know that the Evergrande crisis in China has had basically no (arguably inverse) effects on the crypto market as a whole. Panicked money may flow into crypto in ways never before if it's seen as a safe-haven against the turbulence of the housing market and the USD as a whole. Realistically, there will probably be a little bit of both going on, but being that the size of the US housing market is much bigger than the size of the crypto market cap, crypto needs much less of a % of money flowing inwards in order for it to grow. The housing market, on the other hand, has nowhere to go but down. Time will tell, but it would be advisable for people to be prudent about where to put their money this year, because a lot could happen very quickly as the United States faces its biggest financial crisis in decades in the near future.
FRED:SFXRSALong
by RyanTanaka
Short Real EstateMonthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction. ------Technicals------------ Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008. Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1! ------Macro----------- Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a deflationary era where high prices start to be rejected by the consumer. This fall, foreclosures and evictions may resume. Just as the housing market has absorbed all the buyers at high prices, a flood of supply will enter the market and crush prices. Demographics are NOT in favor of the market in general - Japan has been suffering this issue for 30 years. Yields are falling because demand is falling - all of the buyers have already entered the market and bought....all that is left are sellers. ------Methods----------- Best way to play a Real Estate crash is to short the market. Buy a inverse leveraged ETF like AMEX:DRV (-3x housing market) and buy. It's coming sooner or later - housing prices are cyclic and we haven't "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
AMEX:REZShort
by Baero-Trading
1
RED HOT! When is the housing market going to crash?I didn't say that this post is 'red hot'. And I don't know if or when the housing market is going to crash. The captioned question in a popular search engine rose 2,450% in the past month! That must be super red hot! What's the RSI on that? 😄😂 Expand the chart by pressing the + icon, for a clearer view. There is extreme chatter in the blogosphere about housing bubbles and crashes. Some want to understand why all the interest in that. After all if something doesn't make sense what's the point of paying any further interest. Oh - except if it's US Equities and Bitcoin - right? I get it - some see sense in Bitcoin and Stock indices going north so they're ploughing their money into those two. The 'sense' is ' The FED has my back.. I'll hedge against a crashing US Dollar! '. That's all people know - I'm often told. Has the FED got your back on the price of your house? I don't think so. But I could be wrong. I'm actually wrong about 60% of the time. And nothing here is advice, anyway. So nothing I say seeks your belief. Ahhh.. so what's that crazy spike in searches on the question? Could some be worried? Oh yes the 'some' are probably those who made a killing; now looking for signs of a true peak, to dump on those looking to buy into a superheated market. They're in the search engines checking out carefully for news and early signs of a reversal. Some are nervously watching for potential rises in interest rates and hyper-inflation. Those sort of folk probably know little about technical and fundamental analysis. Is there a peak as yet in the housing market? Nobody can know because there is no dip and no double top at the leading edge, to define the peak (as yet). That means it can still go far more north - to dah Moon, for example. 😉🤐 So for those who need to understand what's going on with house prices, I speculate the following: 1. The parabolic end of the curve up suggests to me this is a stampede of competitiveness among many who think that all bearish sentiment in the economy has been crushed. These are not the likely to be a large proportion of the people searching madly the captioned question. 2. People with cheap credit have jumped on a bandwagon, thinking perhaps " A new dawn is ahead..we've beaten the virus. We have vaccines. Time to git going! Things can only get better. " You know the song? 3. Some believe that the rise in equities plus virtually unlimited monetary and fiscal stimulus means ' They've saved the economy. ' 4. Housing property prices took a leap because there was more demand for homes in the pandemic period. But that's not the only reason. Anyway the initial pump got the bull market going. Then came the stampede with some false peaks as jitters set in for shorter periods. I'm not a housing sector analyst. Now compare what happened in the CONSTRUCTION, PROPERTY & REAL ESTATE INDEX (chart below). Hmmm.. construction? Yeah.. that's nothing to do with housing - right? Think harder. Sound traders and investors know that the best moves they can make in any market involves 90% of their time spent thinking! Is the housing market in the US a bubble? You and I won't know until after the sound of a POP! If you have other ideas, do share. Let's get that discussion going. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:HGX
by Captain_Walker
MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market: Synopsis: Underlying Conditions: Federal Deficit: Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP): Business Inventories will fall: Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery: Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall: Supply: The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY: The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery: Capacity Utilization has some downside: Demand: As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market! Targets for REIT Campaign: EQR - High-Value Residential: BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease: RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate: SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards: Watching: Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete! GLHF - DPT
AMEX:XLREShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
$FNMA/$FMCC Riding On Momentum From 2 Catalysts;Long Road AheadBoth Fannie Mae ( FNMA ) and Freddie Mac ( FMCC ) are rocking and rolling. Mnuchin's interview paired with the court of appeals' move against the Gov't have sparked more interest here. This is great and another potential catalyst today could add fuel to the fire. HOWEVER, is there a motion likely before the election? I think the jury is still out on that front. We've got the election year to think about as well. My guess is short term momentum and hopefully, it retraces back to a higher support than its previous resistance range. " So, are FMCC stock and FNMA stock penny stocks to buy or should you avoid them like the plague? In my opinion, there still needs to be some diligence had right now and don’t throw caution to the wind either...Should a Democrat beat the current incumbent, this whole “to do” may be scrapped entirely. Even though things are exciting now, make sure to keep tabs on the underlying risks and learn how to manage should those materialize...At the end of the day, if an overhaul does happen, Congress will lead negotiations. All these points mentioned would be up for discussion. Some of the more conservative ideas would most likely get taken out of the running. So, keep in mind that there are many unknowns, still. The fact of the matter is that these two penny stocks will remain under close scrutiny for the foreseeable future; this week being the next potential milestone to keep an eye on. " Source - The Best Penny Stocks To Buy This Month? FMCC & FNMA
OTC:FNMA
by PennyStocks101