Howtotrade
EURJPY TRADE UPDATE AND ANALYSISIn this video i share a quick recap on the trade i took from the previous analysis (link in description), after seeing the daily candle close bullish above the high if the last bearish day which confirmed a break of structure on the 4hr timeframe and i went long at the pullback to 157.500 and 38.2 fib area (confluence)
EUR/USD 15M Short Trade IdeaI’m looking to short EUR/USD again on the 15M chart , with expectations of continued bearish momentum carrying into the next day of trade.
Price is showing consistent weakness, and the downtrend remains intact, making this an ideal setup to capture further downside. I’ll be watching for the market to maintain this structure and will adjust if any significant shifts occur. Let’s see if the bears remain in control!
Hidden Costs of Trading You Must Know
In this educational article, we will discuss the hidden costs of trading.
1 - Brokers' Commissions
Trading commission is the brokers' fee for opening a trading position.
Usually, it is calculated based on the size of the trade.
Though most of the traders believe that trading commissions are too low to even count them, the fact is that trading on consistent basis and opening a couple of trading positions weekly, the composite value of commissions may cut a substantial part of our profits.
2 - Education
Of course, most of the trading basics can be found on the Internet absolutely for free.
However, the more experienced you become, the harder it is to find the materials . So you typically should pay for the advanced training.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that the course/coaching that you purchase will improve your trading, quite often traders go through multiple courses/coaching programs before they become consistently profitable.
3 - Spreads
Spread is the difference between the sellers' and buyers' prices.
That difference must be compensated by a trader if one wished to open a trading position.
In highly liquid markets, the spreads are usually low and most of the traders ignore them.
However, being similar to commissions, spreads may cut the substantial part of the overall profits.
4 - Time
When you begin your trading journey, it is not possible to predict how much it will take to become a consistently profitable trader.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that you will become one.
One fact is true, you should spend a couple of years before you find a way to trade profitably, and as we know, the time is money. More time you sacrifice on trading, less time you have on something else.
5 - Swaps
Swap is the fee you pay for transferring a position overnight .
Swap is based on a difference between the interests rates of the currencies that are in a pair that you trade.
Occasionally, swaps can even be positive, and you can earn on holding such positions.
However, most of the time the swaps are negative and the longer you hold your trades, the more costly your trading becomes.
The brokers' commissions, spreads and swaps compose a substantial cost of our trading positions. Adding into the equation the expensive learning materials and time spent on practicing, trading becomes a very expensive game to play.
However, knowing in advance these hidden costs, the one can better prepare himself for a trading journey.
Beware of Trading on Public Holidays!
In this educational article, we will discuss why is it recommendable not to trade during the public holidays. I will explain to you how banking holidays affect the financial markets and how it may impact your trading.
WHY???
🏦 The main source of problems comes from the fact that the big market players like:
banks,
hedge funds
investing firms
are absent.
Similarly to ordinary people, bankers and investors prefer to spend the holidays with their relatives and friends instead of staring at charts on Holidays.
HOW???
But how does it affect the market?
Big players are the main source of the market liquidity.
The liquidity itself is the measure to which an asset can be quickly bought or sold in the market at a price of its quotes.
Therefore, when the big players are missing, the market liquidity drops.
WHAT???
1️⃣ That fact instantly reflects in the market spreads.
They become substantially bigger, directly increasing the costs of each trade and making it problematic to open a position at a desired price.
2️⃣ Secondly, low liquidity leads to a decrease in volatility.
The market becomes weak and indecisive.
As traders, we make the money on market moves. Our goal is to catch a bullish or a bearish wave. Their absence deprives us of profits or, at least, dramatically decreases them.
Look at a chart above, it is EURJPY on a 4H time frame. Look how weak and boring the pair was in US Independence Day - official US banking holiday.
And here is how weak and slow was Gold during US Independence Day on an hourly time frame .
3️⃣ Thirdly, when the liquidity is low, even small market participants can move the market.
It dramatically increases the probabilities of false signals. Relatively low trading volumes may manipulate the market, substantially decreasing the efficiency of technical and fundamental analysis.
Look at a density of false breakout on Dollar Index DXY on 15 minutes time frame the 19th of June - Juneteenth National Independence Day in US.
All these breakouts were the manipulations and false signals.
The increased costs of trading, low volatility and manipulations should have convinced you to stay from charts during the holidays season.
However, the main reason to not trade on holidays is much simpler.
Holidays give you an opportunity to stay with your family, to take a break, to recharge and relax. Even a part-time trading is very exhausting and requires a constant attention. Let yourself be distracted and return after holidays.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Forex Trade Management Strategies. Techniques For Beginners
I am going to reveal 4 trade management strategies that will change the way you trade forex.
These simple techniques are aimed to minimize your losses and maximize your gains.
1. Trading Without Take Profit
Once you spotted the market that is trading in a strong bullish or bearish trend, there is one tip that will help you to benefit from the entire movement.
If the market is bullish, and you buy it expecting a bullish trend continuation, consider trading WITHOUT take profit.
Take a look at USDJPY on an hourly time frame.
The market is trading in the bullish trend, and we see a strong trend-following signal - a bullish breakout of a current resistance .
After the violation, the price went up by more than 1000 pips, and of course, trading with a fixed target, most likely you would close the trade too soon.
The same trade management strategy can be applied in a bearish trend.
Above is a price action on GBPUSD. The pair is very bearish, and we see a strong bearish signal on an hourly time frame.
The market dropped by more than 1000 pips then, and of course, trading with the fixed take profit, you would miss that bearish rally, closing the trade earlier.
Even though the trends do not last forever, the markets may easily fall or grow sharply for weeks or even months and this technique will help you to cash out from the entire movement.
2. Stop Loss to Breakeven
Once you open a trading position and the market starts going in the desired direction, there is a simple strategy that will help you to protect your position from a sudden reversal.
Above is the real trade that we took with my students in my trading academy. We spotted a very bearish pattern on USDCAD and opened short position.
Initially we were right, and the market was going to our target.
BUT because of the surprising release of negative Canadian fundamental news, the market reversed suddenly, not being able to reach the target.
And that could be a losing trade BUT we managed to save our money.
What we did: we moved our stop loss to entry level, or to breakeven, before the release of the fundamentals.
Trade was closed on entry level and we lost 0 dollars.
Moving stop loss to entry saved me tens of thousands of dollars.
It is one of the simplest trade management techniques that you must apply.
3. Trailing Stop Loss
Once you managed to catch a strong movement, do not keep your stop loss intact.
As we already discussed, your first step will be to protect your position and move your stop loss to entry.
But what you can do next, you can apply trailing stop loss.
Above is a trend-following trade that we took with my students on GBPCHF.
Once the market started moving in the desired direction, we moved stop loss to breakeven.
As the market kept setting new highs, we trailed the stop loss and set it below the supports based on new higher lows.
We kept trailing the stop loss till the market reached the target.
Application of a trailing stop will help you to protect your profits, in case of a sudden change in the market sentiment and reversal.
4. Partial Closing
The last tip can be applied for trading and investing.
Remember that once you correctly predicted a rally, you can book partial profits, once the price is approaching some important historical levels or ahead of important fundamental releases.
Imagine that you bought 1 Bitcoin for 17000$.
Once a bullish market started, you can sell the portion of your BTC, once the price reaches significant key levels.
For example, 0.2 BTC on each level.
With such trade management technique, you will book profits while remaining in your position.
Even though, these techniques are very simple, only the few apply them. Try these trade management strategies and increase your gains and avoid losses!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to Identify Candlestick Strength | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will discuss
Please, note that the concepts that will be covered in this article can be applied on any time frame, however, higher is the time frame, more trustworthy are the candles.
Also, remember, that each individual candle is assessed in relation to other candles on the chart.
There are three types of candles depending on its direction:
🟢 Bullish candle
Such a candle has a closing price higher than the opening price.
🔴 Bearish candle
Such a candle has a closing price lower than the opening price.
🟡 Neutral candle
Such a candle has equal or close to equal opening and closing price.
There are three categories of the strength of the candle.
Please, note, the measurement of the strength of the candle is applicable only to bullish/bearish candles.
Neutral candle has no strength by definition. It signifies the absolute equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
1️⃣ Strong candle
Strong bullish candle signifies strong buying volumes and dominance of buyers without sellers resistance.
Above, you can see the example of a strong bullish candle on NZDCHF on a 4H.
Strong bearish candle means significant selling volumes and high bearish pressure without buyers resistance.
On the chart above, you can see a song bearish candle on EURUSD.
Usually, a strong bullish/bearish candle has a relatively big body and tiny wicks.
2️⃣ Medium candle
Medium bullish candle signifies a dominance of buyers with a rising resistance of sellers.
You can see the sequence of medium bullish candles on EURJPY pair on a daily time frame.
Medium bearish candle means a prevailing strength of sellers with a growing pressure of bulls.
Above is the example of a sequence of medium bearish candles on AUDUSD pair.
Usually, a medium bullish/bearish candle has its range (based on a wick) 2 times bigger than the body of the candle.
3️⃣ Weak candle
Weak bullish candle signifies the exhaustion of buyers and a substantial resistance of sellers.
Weak bearish candle signifies the exhaustion of sellers and a considerable bullish pressure.
Usually, such a candle has a relatively small body and a big wick.
Above is the sequence of weak bullish and bearish candles on NZDCHF pair on an hourly time frame.
Knowing how to read the strength of the candlestick, one can quite accurately spot the initiate of new waves, market reversals and consolidations. Watch how the price acts, follow the candlesticks and try to spot the change of momentum by yourself.
Demo Account Will Not Make You a PRO TRADER
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss demo account trading .
We will discuss its importance for newbie traders and its flaws.
➕ Pros:
Demo account is the best tool to get familiar with the financial markets . It gives you instant access to hundreds of different financial instruments.
With a demo account, you can learn how the trading terminal works . You can execute the trading orders freely and get familiar with its types. You can get acquainted with leverage, spreads and volatility.
Trading on paper money, you do not incur any risks , while you can see the real impact of your actions on your account balance.
Demo account is the best instrument for developing and testing a trading strategy , not risking any penny.
The absence of risk makes demo trading absolutely stress-free.
➖ Cons:
The incurred losses have no real impact , not causing real emotions and pressure, which you always experience trading on a real account.
Your performance (positive or negative) does not influence your future decisions.
Real market conditions are tougher. Demo accounts execute the orders a bit differently than the real ones. That is clearly felt during the moments of high volatility, with the order slippage occurring less often and trade execution being longer.
Trading with paper money allows you to trade with the sums being unaffordable in a real life, misrepresenting your real potential gains and providing a false confidence in success.
Even though we spotted multiple negative elements of demo trading, I want you to realize that it still remains the essential part of your trading journey and one of the main training tools. You should spend as much time on demo trading as you need to build confidence in your actions, only then you can gradually switch to real account trading.
Profitable Triangle Trading Strategy Explained
Descending triangle formation is a classic reversal pattern . It signifies the weakness of buyers in a bullish trend and bearish accumulation .
In this article, I will teach you how to trade descending triangle pattern. I will explain how to identify the pattern properly and share my trading strategy.
⭐️ The pattern has a very peculiar price action structure :
1. Trading in a bullish trend, the price sets a higher high and retraces setting a higher low .
2. Then the market starts growing again but does not manage to set a new high, setting a lower high instead.
3. Then the price drops again perfectly respecting the level of the last higher low, setting an equal low .
4. After that, one more bullish movement and one more consequent lower high , bearish move, and equal low .
Based on the last three highs , a trend line can be drawn.
Based on the equal lows , a horizontal neckline is spotted.
❗What is peculiar about such price action is the fact that a set of lower highs signifies a weakening bullish momentum : fewer and fewer buyers are willing to buy from horizontal support based on equal lows.
🔔 Such price action is called a bearish accumulation .
Once the pattern is formed it is still not a trend reversal signal though. Remember that the price may set many lower highs and equal lows within the pattern.
The trigger that is applied to confirm a trend reversal is a bearish breakout of the neckline of the pattern.
📉Then a short position can be opened.
For conservative trading, a retest entry is suggested.
Safest stop is lying at least above the level of the last lower high.
However, in case the levels of the lower highs are almost equal it is highly recommendable to set a stop loss above them all.
🎯For targets look for the closest strong structure support.
Below, you can see the example of a descending triangle trade that I took on NZDCAD pair.
After I spotted the formation of the pattern, I was patiently waiting for a breakout of its neckline.
After a breakout, I set a sell limit order on a retest.
Stop loss above the last lower high.
TP - the closest key support.
90 pips of pure profit made.
Learn to identify and trade descending triangle. It is one of the most accurate price action patterns every trader should know.
How to Apply a Position Size Calculator in Forex Trading
In this educational article, I will teach you how to apply a position size calculator in Forex and calculate a lot size for your trades depending on a desired risk .
Why do you need a position size calculator?
Even though, most of the newbie traders trade with the fixed lot , the truth is that fixed lot trading is considered to be very risky .
Depending on the trading instrument, time frame and a desired stop loss, the risks from one trade to another are constantly floating .
With the constant fluctuations of losses per trade, it is very complicated to control your risks and drawdowns.
A lot size calculation , however, allows you to risk the desired percentage of your capital per trade , limiting the maximum you can potentially lose.
A lot size is calculated with a position size calculator .
How to Measure Lot Size for Trades?
Let's measure a lot size for the following trade on EURUSD.
Step 1:
Measure a pip value of your stop loss.
It is the distance from your entry level to your stop loss level.
In the example on the picture, the stop loss is 35 pips.
Step 2:
Open a position size calculator
Step 3:
Fill the form.
Inputs: Account currency, account balance, desired risk %, stop loss in pips, currency pair.
Let's say that we are trading with USD account.
Its balance is $10000.
The risk for this trade is 1%.
Step 4:
Calculate a lot size.
The system will calculate a lot size for your trade.
0.28 standard lot in our example.
Taking a trade on EURUSD with $10000 deposit and 35 pips stop loss , you will need 0.28 lot size to risk 1% of your trading account.
Learn to apply a position size calculator. That is the must-use tool for a proper risk management.
Learn How to Apply Top-Down Multiple Time Frame Analysis
In this article, we will discuss how to apply Multiple Time Frame Analysis in trading .
I will teach you how to apply different time frames and will share with you some useful tips and example of a real trade that I take with Top-Down Analysis strategy.
Firstly, let's briefly define the classification of time frames that we will discuss:
There are 3 main categories of time frames:
1️⃣ Higher time frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames
Higher Time Frames Analysis
1️⃣ Higher time frames are used for identification of the market trend and global picture. Weekly and daily time frames belong to this category.
The analysis of these time frames is the most important .
On these time frames, we make predictions and forecast the future direction of the market with trend analysis and we identify the levels , the areas from where we will trade our predictions with structure analysis .
Above is the example of a daily time frame analysis on NZDCAD.
We see that the market is trading in a strong bullish trend.
I underlined important support and resistance levels.
The supports will provide the safest zones to buy the market from anticipating a bullish trend continuation.
Trading Time Frames
2️⃣ Trading time frames are the time frames where the positions are opened . The analysis of these time frames initiates only after the market reaches the underlined trading levels, the areas on higher time frames.
My trading time frames are 4h/1h. There I am looking for a confirmation of the strength of the structures that I spotted on higher time frames. There are multiple ways to confirm that. My confirmations are the reversal price action patterns.
Once the confirmation is spotted, the position is opened.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to Support 1 on 1H time frame on NZDCAD pair, I spotted a strong bullish confirmation - a triple bottom formation.
A long position is opened on a retest of a broken neckline.
Lower Time Frames
3️⃣ Lower time frames are 30/15 minutes charts. Even though these time frames are NOT applied for trading, occasionally they provide some extra clues . Also, these time frames can be applied by riskier traders for opening trading positions before the confirmation is spotted on trading time frames.
Before the price broke a neckline of a triple bottom formation on an hourly time frame on NZDCAD, it broke a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle formation on 15 minutes time frame. It was an earlier and riskier confirmation to buy.
Learn to apply these 3 categories of time frames in a combination. Start your analysis with the highest time frame and steadily go lower, identifying more and more clues.
You will be impressed how efficient that strategy is.
The Wisdom of Pro Traders vs. Newbie Naivety
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the perception of trading by individuals .
We will compare the vision of a professional trader and a beginner - trading vs gambling.
Most of the people perceive trading performance incorrectly. There is a common fallacy among them that win rate is the only true indicator of the efficiency of a trading strategy.
Moreover, newbies are searching for a strategy producing close to 100% accuracy.
Such a mindset determines their expectations.
Especially it feels, when I share a wrong forecast in my telegram channel.
It immediately triggers resentment and negative reactions.
Talking to these people personally and asking them about the reasons of their indignation, the common answer is: "If you are a pro, you can not be wrong".
The truth is that the reality is absolutely different. Opening any position or making a forecast, a pro trader always realizes that there is no guarantee that the market will act as predicted.
Pro trader admits that he deals with probabilities , and he is ready to take losses . He realizes that he may have negative trading days, even weeks and months, but at the end of the day his overall performance will be positive.
Remember, that your success in trading is determined by your expectations and perception. Admit the reality of trading, set correct goals, and you will take losses more easily.
I wish you luck and courage on a battlefield.
WHAT IS TRADING ACCOUNT DRAWDOWN | 3 Types Of Drawdown Explained
In my videos, I frequently use the term "trading account drawdown ".
Many of you asked me to explain the meaning of that term and share some examples.
What is Trading Account Drawdown?
The account drawdown is the highest observed loss from the highest
value of the deposit to the lowest value of the deposit at
a certain period of time.
Imagine you started to trade with 10,000$ account.
At the end of the year, your account size reached 15,000$ .
However, at some point through the year the deposit value dropped to 6,000$ . It was the absolute minimum for the one-year period.
At some point, your net loss was -4,000$ or 40% of your account balance.
The account drawdown is 40% .
❗️Knowing the account drawdown is very important for the risk assessment of the trading strategy. Usually, 50% and bigger drawdown signifies an extremely high risk.
3 Types of Drawdown
1. Current drawdown - a temporary drawdown associated
with the negative total value of opened trading position(s)
at present.
Once you start trading with 10,000$ deposit, you open several trading positions. Being opened, with the constant price movements, your potential gains fluctuates from positive to negative.
For example, with 3 active trades :
EURUSD ( -500$ at present);
GBPUSD ( +200$ at present);
GOLD ( -100$ at present)
Your current account drawdown is -400$ or 4% of your deposit.
2. Fixed drawdown - the negative value of the closed trading
position(s) at present for a certain period of time.
While some of your trades remain active, some are already closed .
Imagine the same deposit - 10,000$ .
On Monday you opened 6 trades,
2 still remain active ;
4 are already closed .
Your total loss from your closed trades is -500$. Your fixed Monday's drawdown is 5%.
3. Maximum Drawdown - the maximum observed loss from
the highest value of the deposit before a new maximum
is reached.
Starting to trade with 10,000$ you are already trading for 5 years .
Your account were growing rapidly and at some moment it reached 25,000$ . Then the recession started. You faced a dramatic loss of 12,500$ before you started to recover.
That was the maximum observed loss for the period.
Your maximum account drawdown was 50% .
❗️Different types of drawdown give a lot of insights about a trading strategy. Its proper assessment will help to spot a high risk strategy and to find a conservative one.
Constantly monitor your account drawdown and always check the numbers.
What is your highest account drawdown?
The ONLY Strategy You Need to Identify The Market Trend
In this article, we will discuss a proven price action based way to identify the market trend .
❗️And let me note, before we start, that no matter what strategy do you use in your trading, you should always know where the market is going and what is the current trend . Your judgement should be based on strict and objective rules that proved its accuracy.
There are a lot of ways to identify the market trend. One of the simplest and efficient ones is price action based method .
This method relies on impulse legs .
The market never goes just straight up or down, the price action always has a zigzag shape with a set of impulses and retracements.
The impulse leg is a strong directional movement , while the retracement is the correctional movement within the boundaries of the impulse.
UPTREND
📈The market is trading in a bullish trend if 3 conditions are met:
1️⃣the price forms an initial bullish impulse ,
2️⃣ retraces , setting a higher low ,
3️⃣then starts growing again and sets a new high with the second bullish impulse .
Once these 3 conditions are met, we consider the market to be bullish, and we expect a bullish continuation in such a manner.
Take a look at a price action on USDCAD. According to the trend-analysis rules, the pair is trading in a bullish trend.
DOWNTREND
📉The market is trading in a bearish trend if 3 following conditions are met:
1️⃣the price forms an initial bearish impulse ,
2️⃣ retraces , setting a lower high ,
3️⃣then drops lower and sets a new low with the second bearish impulse .
Once these 3 conditions are met, we consider the market to be bearish, and we expect a bearish trend continuation.
According to the rules, NZDUSD is trading in a bearish trend on the chart above.
CONSOLIDATION
➖The third state of the market is called consolidation . The market is trading in a consolidation if the conditions for bullish or bearish trend are not met . The price chaotically forms bullish and bearish impulses, usually trading within the range .
Above is the example of a sideways, consolidating market, where the price sets equal or almost equal highs and lows and conditions for bullish/bearish trend are not met.
Knowing the current trend, one always knows whether a current trading position is trend-following or counter trend, or it is a sideways consolidation trade.
Learn these simple rules and try to identify the market trend with them.
Mastering the Trader Skillset: Building a Strong PyramidIn the dynamic world of trading, success hinges on a robust skillset. Imagine this skillset as a pyramid, with each level representing a crucial component that traders must master to achieve consistent profitability. At the base, we have Technical Analysis, followed by Risk Management in the middle, and Discipline and Patience at the top. Additionally, Automation plays a pivotal role, integrating seamlessly across the entire structure. Let's delve into each of these elements and understand how they contribute to a trader's success.
The Base: Technical Analysis
The foundation of the trader's pyramid is Technical Analysis. This involves studying price charts, patterns, and various indicators to make informed trading decisions. Mastering technical analysis is crucial because it:
1. Identifies Trends and Patterns: Recognizing market trends and chart patterns allows traders to predict future price movements, making it easier to enter and exit trades at optimal times.
2. Utilizes Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and Bollinger Bands provide insights into market momentum, volatility, and potential reversals.
3. Supports Strategy Development: Technical analysis forms the basis for creating and refining trading strategies, whether they are short-term or long-term.
The Middle: Risk Management
Sitting at the middle of the pyramid is Risk Management, a critical component that ensures long-term survival in the market. Effective risk management includes:
1. Position Sizin: Determining the appropriate size for each trade to limit exposure and avoid catastrophic losses.
2. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders to automatically close losing positions before they can significantly impact the trading account.
3. Diversification: Spreading investments across different assets or markets to reduce risk.
By prioritizing risk management, traders can protect their capital and remain in the game, even during periods of market volatility.
The Peak: Discipline and Patience
At the pinnacle of the pyramid are Discipline and Patience, the traits that distinguish successful traders from the rest. These qualities are essential for:
1. Adhering to Strategies: Sticking to predetermined trading plans and strategies, even in the face of emotional challenges and market noise.
2. Avoiding Overtrading: Exercising restraint to prevent impulsive decisions and overtrading, which can erode profits and increase risk.
3. Waiting for the Right Opportunities: Having the patience to wait for high-probability setups, rather than forcing trades.
Discipline and patience ensure that traders remain consistent and rational, avoiding the pitfalls of emotional trading.
The Integrative Element: Automation
Automation in trading acts as an integrative element that enhances every level of the pyramid. It involves using algorithms and trading bots to execute trades based on predefined criteria. Automation benefits traders by:
1. Eliminating Emotional Bias: Automated systems follow strategies without being influenced by fear or greed, ensuring objective decision-making.
2. Enhancing Efficiency: Automation can analyze vast amounts of data quickly and execute trades with precision, improving overall trading efficiency.
3. Consistence: Automated strategies maintain consistency in trading, sticking to the plan without deviation.
By incorporating automation, traders can optimize their technical analysis, streamline risk management, and uphold discipline and patience.
The trader skillset pyramid provides a comprehensive framework for achieving trading success. Technical Analysis forms the sturdy base, enabling traders to understand market behavior and develop strategies. Risk Management, positioned in the middle, safeguards their capital and ensures longevity. Discipline and Patience, at the top, are the hallmarks of professional trading, allowing traders to execute their plans effectively. Automation, interwoven throughout, enhances each component, providing a modern edge in the fast-paced trading environment.
By mastering each level of this pyramid, traders can build a resilient and profitable trading career, equipped to navigate the complexities of financial markets with confidence.
3 Best Fibonacci Tools For Forex Trading
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss 3 classic Fibonacci tools you must know for trading different financial markets.
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement
Fib.Retracement is my favorite fib.tool. It is aimed to identify strong horizontal support and resistance levels within the impulse leg .
We draw this tool based on the high and low of the impulse (from wick to wick) and it shows us POTENTIALLY strong structure levels determined by Fibonacci numbers .
Common Fib.Retracement levels are: 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of an application of a fibonacci retracement tool based on a bearish impulse leg on EURUSD.
2️⃣ Fibonacci Extension
Fib.Extension indicates strong horizontal support and resistance levels beyond the impulse . Similar to Fib.Retracement tool, Fib.Extension is drawn relying on impulse's high and low (from wick to wick) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong structure levels where the consequent impulses may complete based on Fibonacci number.
Common Fib.Extension levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of fibonacci extension tool based on USDJPY based on a bullish impulse leg.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Channel
Fib.Channel shows strong vertical supports and resistances (trend lines) within the channel . The tool is drawn based on the trend line of a valid parallel channel (based on wicks) and it shows POTENTIALLY strong trend lines from where the market may retrace .
The trend lines within Fib.Channel rest on 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786 Fib.Levels .
Once one of the levels is reached, wait for a confirmation before you open a trading positions.
Above is the example of a fibonacci channel on USDCHF.
Remember that Fibonacci's are simply tools in a toolbox. In order to use them properly, you need to build a trading system around them, test it and confirm its efficiency.
Be greedy when others are fearful - © Warren BuffettAs the cryptocurrency market gears up for a potential alt season, savvy investors are positioning themselves to capitalize on the gains of altcoins. This article will explore six promising altcoins and the significance of sector diversification in maximizing returns.
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful, Fearful When Others Are Greedy:
This timeless adage by Warren Buffett highlights the importance of contrarian investing. During alt seasons, when the market is euphoric and prices are rising, it's crucial to maintain a level head and avoid overextending. Conversely, when the market is in a downtrend and fear is prevalent, it's an opportunity to accumulate undervalued assets.
Top 6 Altcoins for Alt Season:
Dogecoin (DOGE): Forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, DOGE is poised for a breakout. The triangle's squeeze indicates a potential surge in price. Respecting the ascending trend and avoiding new lows suggests an upward breakout.
Sector: Meme Coin
Chainlink (LINK): With an accumulation period spanning 518 days, LINK is primed for a significant pump. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the potential breakout, adhering to the golden rule of accumulation. The ideal shakeout beneath the accumulation range followed by price appreciation reinforces the bullish outlook.
Sector: Oracle
Optimism (OP): Trading within an ascending channel and consistently respecting the lows, OP exhibits strong bullish momentum. The pattern and price action suggest a continuation of the uptrend.
Sector: Layer 2 Scaling Solution
Immutable X (IMX): Breaking above local highs and retesting the upper resistance trendline, IMX confirms a trend reversal to the bullish side. This price action signifies a shift in market sentiment.
Sector: NFT Marketplace
Avalanche (AVAX): Coiling within a descending wedge (bullish pattern), AVAX experienced a shakeout below a crucial support level ($9) before resuming its upward trajectory. Respecting old support levels is essential.
Sector: Layer 1 Blockchain
VeChain (VET): Epitomizing a textbook bullish run, VET adheres strictly to the ascending trend. Each cycle consists of price appreciation, accumulation, and further growth.
Sector: Supply Chain Management
Sector Diversification:
Diversifying across sectors is crucial, as different sectors tend to perform differently based on market trends and events. For instance, during periods of DeFi dominance, DeFi-focused altcoins may outperform. Conversely, when NFT mania takes hold, NFT marketplace tokens could surge.
How to Start Forex Trading. Step-by-Step Learning Plan
Hey traders,
If you are wondering how to start Forex trading, or you just started to trade, I suggest a 12 weeks intensive learning plan.
Each week will be dedicated to a specific topic. Starting from the basics you will gradually mature and by the end of the intensive you will have a complete trading strategy.
✔️Week 1 - Practice market trend identification
Learn to identify the direction of the trend. Master the recognition of a bullish trend, bearish trend and sideways market.
✔️Week 2 - Practice support and resistance.
Learn to identify key levels. Master support & resistance recognition.
✔️Week 3 - Learn candlestick patterns.
Study classic candlestick formations and practice their recognition.
✔️Week 4 - Learn price action patterns.
Study classic price action patterns: trend-following patterns, reversal patterns and consolidation pattern and learn to recognize them.
By the end of the first month, you will mature the basics of candlestick chart analysis.
✔️Week 5 - Practice supply and demand zones.
Learn to identify supply and demand zones. Learn to combine candlestick analysis with support and resistance to identify the potential reversal zones.
✔️Week 6 - Practice multiple time frame analysis.
Master top-down analysis. Learn to apply all the techniques studied previously on multiple time frames.
✔️Week 7 - Learn different entry strategies.
With all the knowledge being obtained, you can practice different entry techniques. You can try trading candlesticks patterns or price action patterns, or simply key levels. Search what works for you.
✔️Week 8 - Learn risk management.
Of course, entry strategies are not enough for profitable trading. Learn how to set stop loss and how to manage your risks properly.
By the end of the second month, you will have a foundation for a strategy building.
✔️Week 9 - Practice trade management.
Knowing how to enter the trade and how to manage the risks, the next step is to learn how to manage the active position (stop loss trailing, position protection, manual closing, etc.)
✔️Week 10 - Create a trading plan.
Combine all the knowledge that you gained in a structured trading plan.
✔️Week 11 - Follow the strategy.
Be disciplined and follow your rules. Test them and learn to be consistent.
✔️Week 12 - Review your plan.
Following your strategy, you will inevitably find its flaws. Learn to constantly improve it.
By the end of the third month, you will have a complete rule-based trading strategy. Of course, that won't be a perfect strategy, but you will have broad knowledge in technical analysis.
The next 3 months alone should be sacrificed on polishing and improvement of your trading plan.
Try this intensive, traders. I strongly believe that you will see a dramatic improvement in your trading upon its completion.
Let’s Compare INVESTING, TRADING and GAMBLING
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing, trading and gambling .
📈 Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱 Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰 Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
27 Articles That Helps You to Avoid MONEYGONE PatternAre you tired of feeling like your money disappears into thin air? Say goodbye to the ' MONEYGONE ' pattern with our collection of 27 articles packed with tips and tricks to keep your finances on track.
In #VestindaTips we've put together this big guide all about how prices move and patterns in trading.
Whether you're new to trading or you've been doing it for a while, we want to give you helpful info to understand the ups and downs of the financial world. So, let's learn together and get ready to navigate those tricky markets!
Dynamics of Bull Market Cycles:
Understanding the ebbs and flows of bull markets is essential for capitalizing on upward trends. Dive into the intricacies of bull market cycles to identify opportunities and optimize your trading strategies.
Dynamics of Bear Market Cycles:
Conversely, bear markets present unique challenges and opportunities.
Explore the dynamics of bear market cycles to mitigate risks and maximize profits during downward trends.
Diamond Pattern: How-To Guide:
Uncover the secrets of the diamond pattern and learn how to recognize and interpret this rare yet powerful formation in trading.
Drawing Trendlines: A Practical Guide:
Master the art of drawing trendlines with precision and accuracy. This practical guide offers valuable tips and techniques to identify trends and make informed trading decisions.
Think You Know Candlestick Patterns?
Delve deeper into the realm of candlestick patterns and refine your understanding of these fundamental tools for technical analysis.
What is a Bearish Pennant Pattern?
Decode the mysteries of the bearish pennant pattern and discover how to spot this bearish continuation formation in the market.
Market Gaps: Strategies, Types, Fills, and Crypto:
Explore the phenomenon of market gaps and uncover effective strategies for navigating these price discontinuities across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
Three White Soldiers:
Learn to recognize and interpret the significance of the three white soldiers pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals a potential shift in market sentiment.
Bullish Pennant Pattern:
Gain insights into the bullish pennant pattern and harness its predictive power to identify lucrative trading opportunities in the market.
How to Island Reversal Pattern:
Navigate the waters of the island reversal pattern and understand its implications for trend reversal and market sentiment.
The Triangles: With Real-Life Examples:
Explore the various types of triangle patterns, including symmetrical, ascending, and descending triangles, with real-life examples illustrating their significance in technical analysis.
Cracking the Short Squeeze:
Demystify the phenomenon of short squeezes and learn how to capitalize on these explosive market dynamics for potentially substantial gains.
Hammer of Trend Change:
Discover the hammer candlestick pattern and its role as a potent signal for trend reversal, providing traders with valuable insights into market dynamics.
Basics of Elliott Wave Theory:
Unlock the foundational principles of Elliott Wave Theory and leverage this powerful tool for predicting market cycles and trends.
The Core Confirmations Every Trader Must Know:
Equip yourself with essential trading confirmations to validate your analysis and make well-informed trading decisions with confidence.
What are Tweezer Top and Bottom Patterns?
Unravel the mysteries of tweezer top and bottom patterns and learn how to interpret these candlestick formations for identifying potential trend reversals.
How to Altseason Cycle || Cheat Sheet || Bitcoin Dominance:
Navigate the altseason cycle with ease using this comprehensive cheat sheet, complete with insights into Bitcoin dominance and its implications for the broader cryptocurrency market.
Rising and Falling Wedges Explained:
Understand the characteristics of rising and falling wedges and learn how to effectively trade these patterns for profit.
How to Head and Shoulders:
Master the head and shoulders pattern, a classic reversal formation that can provide valuable insights into market trends and potential trend reversals.
Double Top vs. Double Bottom Patterns:
Distinguish between double top and double bottom patterns and learn how to identify and trade these reversal formations effectively.
Triple Top vs. Triple Bottom Patterns:
Explore the nuances of triple top and triple bottom patterns and their implications for market trends and price action.
DIVERGENCE CHEATSHEET:
Decode divergence patterns with this comprehensive cheat sheet, providing invaluable insights into market dynamics and potential trend reversals.
Supply and Demand Zones: Buying Low, Selling High:
Master the art of identifying supply and demand zones to capitalize on optimal entry and exit points in the market.
Ascending Channels: The Guide:
Navigate ascending channels with confidence using this comprehensive guide, complete with strategies for trading within these bullish formations.
Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution:
Unlock the secrets of Wyckoff accumulation and distribution phases and learn how to spot these market manipulation tactics for profitable trading opportunities.
The Cup and Handle Pattern in Trading:
Discover the cup and handle pattern, a classic bullish continuation formation that can signal significant uptrends in the market.
The ABCD Pattern: from A to D:
Explore the ABCD pattern and its role in identifying potential entry and exit points in the market, providing traders with a structured approach to trading.
With all the cool stuff you've learned from our guide on price action and patterns, you'll be ready to tackle the twists and turns of the financial world like a pro! It doesn't matter if you're just starting out or you've been at it for a while, getting the hang of these basic ideas is super important for making good trades and winning big. So, go ahead and dive in! Happy trading, everyone!
Here is WHY You Must Learn TRADE MANAGEMENT
Hey traders,
In this post, I will share with you my tips for trade management in Forex trading .
But first, let me elaborate on what is exactly a trade management .
Trade management is the set of rules and techniques applied for managing of an already active position.
Trade management is a very important element of any trading strategy that should never be neglected.
1. Never remove a stop loss
Being in a huge loss, many traders refuse to admit that they are wrong. Instead, watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss, they remove stop loss hoping on a coming reversal.
The alternative situation may happen when the price is going sharply in the desired direction. Watching the increasing profits, traders remove a stop loss (and occasionally take profit), being afraid to miss bigger profits.
Both situations may lead to substantial, higher than initially planned losses. Driven by many factors, the market can easily burn all gains and move against the desired direction much longer than traders stay solvent.
Take a look at this long trade on Gold. When the price comes closer and closer to a stop loss, many traders can not take a psychological pressure and remove stop loss, being afraid to take the loss.
However, most of the time, stop loss will help you to limit your losses. You can see that after Gold reached stop loss, the price dropped much lower. Removing the stop loss, you would inquire bigger losses.
Never remove a stop loss. It must be always set.
2. Never modify your stop loss if a position is in loss
Watching how the price moves closer and closer to a stop loss is painful. Instead of removing stop loss, some traders move it and give the market more space for reversal.
Even though such a technique is safer than the complete stop loss removal, it is still a very bad habit.
Each stop loss adjustment increases the potential loss, not giving any guarantees that the market will reverse.
It is highly recommendable to keep your stop loss fixed and let the price hit it and admit the loss.
Above is one more example, why the earlier you close the trade in a loss, the better. Modifications and adjustment of your stop loss will most of the time lead to even bigger losses.
3. Know in advance your profit protection strategy
Where do you take your profit?
Do you have a fixed tp level or do you apply trailing stop?
You should always know the answers.
Coiling around take profit level but not being able to reach it, the price makes many traders manually close the trade or move take profit closer to current price levels.
Another common situation happens when the market so quickly reaches the desired TP level so the traders remove TP hoping to make bigger than initially planned profit.
Such emotional interventions negatively affect a long-term trading performance. TP removal may even burn all profits.
Do not let your greed intervene, and always follow your rules.
Above is the example of trade management rules in Forex trading. After GBPUSD reached a key support, a long position was opened from that. Once the price moves up by a certain distance, stop loss will be moved to entry. Take profit will be the closest key resistance.
4. Never add to a losing position
Watching how the price refuses to go in the intended direction and cutting a partial loss, many traders add to a losing trade in hopes that the market will reverse and all the losses will be recovered.
Again, such a fallacy usually leads to substantial losses.
Remember, you can add to a position only AFTER the market moved in the desired direction, not BEFORE.
Just imagine what could happen with your trading account, if you kept adding to a losing short position in a recent crazy bullish market on Gold.
5. Close the trades manually only following rules
Quite often, newbie traders manually close their trades because of some random factors:
they saw someone's opposite view, or they simply changed their mind.
Remember, that if you opened a trade following your trading plan, you should always have strict rules for a position manual close. Do not let random factors affect your trading.
Above is the example how you could easily miss a lot of pips on Gold, simply because the market temporarily stuck on some resistance.
Following these 5 simple tips, your trading will improve dramatically. Remember, that it is not enough to spot and accurate entry. Once you are in a trade, you should wisely manage that, following your plan.
How I Shorted the NY top on EUR/GBP **Educational** 4/26/24First thing I did was identify the trend.
The market is clearly locally in a downtrend, so I was looking for a short today.
The next step was to wait for New York's Initial Balance (NY IB) to form.
(The NY IB is the high and low of the first hour of NYs open.)
Once the IB is formed we wait to see how price interacts with it in order to make an educated decision.
In this case price broke above the IB and failed to find enough buyers to push higher, so price simply re-entered the IB, and formed a failed auction.
The Next thing I look for is confluence to support my idea.
You can see just above the IB high, we had the Fib golden pocket and the VWAP.
(The golden pocket is the 0.618 to 0.66 fib retracement, and the VWAP is the Volume Weighted Avg Price)
One of the final things I look at is Volume and footprint.
You can see here when I zoom in there is alot of buying into the resistance level.
And that buying is followed by even heavy selling that is causing price to reject from the resistance.
You can even see the delta is heavily negative as price moves away.
It is obvious bears are in control here
Now that everything is aligned, and I have a plan, the last part is to enter the trade.
This is simple, price gets acceptance back inside of the IB, and I entered on the backtest of the IB.
Stoploss above the high and I look to take profit at the IB low.