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HPQ

HPQ - HP Stock Technical and Fundamental Analysis Technical Analysis - Hold Before buying - There are some concerns around the Printing Business (Loss of 19%) Prices are moving inside a channel, wait to check if the support will be tested again before buying. Fundamental Analysis There was good news for HP (ticker: HPQ) in PCs, with flat revenues in notebooks year over year. But the printing business was badly hurt by the wholesale shutdown of offices, with revenues down 19%, including a 31% decline in commercial hardware and a 15% drop in printer supplies. The company expects continued weakness in printers and supplies in the July quarter. From a fundamental point of view, there is an emerging concern that HP’s printer business simply won’t recover to pre-Covid levels in an environment when many workers spend less time (or no time) working from offices. With fewer workers in the office, there will be less need for printers and printing supplies.
NYSE:HPQ
by Mauriello
1
THE WEEK AHEAD (PART II): HPQ, CRM, COST, GDXJ/GDX, USO/XOP, EWZEARNINGS: ... with June monthly at-the-money short straddle price as a function of stock price shown: HPQ (38/62), 14.3%: Announces Wednesday before market open. CRM (54/46), 8.7%: Announces Thursday before market open. COST (35/32), 6.5%: Announces Thursday before market open. Notes: Ordinarily, I screen potential earnings announcement volatility contraction plays by rank and for 30-day greater than 50%, but we've had a volatility pop in the last 52-weeks such that implied rank or percentile isn't necessarily as informative as it was. Where this happens, I look at whether the underlying is going to objectively pay or be worthwhile, using the at-the-money short straddle price relative to the stock price in a potential evaluation of that (i.e., the HPQ June at-the-money short straddle is paying 14.3% of the price of the stock). A good rule of thumb is that anything paying below 10% of the stock price is probably not worth it as a volatility contraction play in single name, so HPQ would probably be the only earnings play I'd consider putting on here, with the June 19th 17 short straddle paying 2.42 at the mid price and the skinny June 19th 15.5/19 paying 1.09, although the markets are wide here, so would look to recheck setup pricing running into Tuesday close if you're keen on putting that play on. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY AND ORDERED BY RANK WITH JULY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SHOWN: SLV (48/38), 10.8% EWW (44/42), 11.6% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% GDX (40/48), 14.5% XBI (38/41), 11.8% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% XLE (35/47), 13.2% SMH (31/28), 11.4% XOP (24/57), 17.1% USO (23/86), 21.8% ... AND ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE SCREENED FOR >15%: TQQQ (41/87), 24.3% USO (23/86), 21.8% GDXJ (43/61), 17.7% XOP (24/57), 17.1% EWZ (36/55), 15.2% GDX (40/48), 14.5% Notes: Here, TQQQ looks to provide the best bang for your buck, but I generally shy from leveraged products unless I can't resist doing something in the direction of the way the fund is set up. (See, TQQQ Post Below). Secondarily, USO/XOP have some juice, as do GDXJ/GDX, with the hammered EWZ rounding out the top five. Pictured here is a GDXJ July 17th (53 Days 'Til Expiry) 40/56 short strangle paying 2.75 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -1.52/5.55. BROAD MARKET, ORDERED BY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (47/40), 10.9% QQQ (29/29), 8.3% EFA (29/26), 6.8% SPY (28/29), 7.8% Notes: Here, the juice is in small caps, with the IWM July 17th, 16 delta strike 115/151 short strangle paying 3.39 at the mid price and delta/theta of -.1/8.27. IRA DIVIDEND PAYERS ORDERED BY RANK: EWA (47/39), 36.8% above 52 week lows; IYR (44/36), 31.5% above 52 week lows. XLU (38/25), 30.3% above 52 week lows. EWZ (36/55), 25.1% above 52 week lows. HYG (31/17), 20.5% above 52 week lows. EFA (29/26), 24.6% above 52 week lows. SPY (28/28), 35.4% above 52 week lows. EMB (22/18), 24.6% above 52 week lows. TLT (20/18), 29.2% above 52 week lows. Notes: I'm sticking the "above 52 week lows" out there just to show how much of everything has bounced, so it wouldn't have taken a genius to wade into the market, sell some out-of-the-money short puts in high implied and made out in some fashion. (See IYR, EFA, HYG Short Put Ladder Posts, Below). Conversely, that bounce means that things weren't as cheap as they were at the lows, so it may be time to sit back and wait for another sell-off or high implied event to wade back in with acquisitional setups, with the general elections in November being the next possible opportunity. In the mean time, I'll continue to work the call side in the covered calls I've got on now.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
I’ve got a FEVER, the only script is more $HPQIve got a hunch that there was a substantial jump in home printer purchases and it’s possibly not baked into the BCBA:HPQ stock price. This is a “No Look Pass” pass.. 1. trends.google.com it’s Google search trend of the phrase “Home Printer”.. Notice the DOUBLING of searches in March. 2. “Ok, we get it Geno.. Everyone was forced to work from home early March and had to buy all this office sh!t so they could work from home. Why would NYSE:HPQ be a trade?” Answer: Because it’s the 1st thing i realized i needed. This is the market share breakdown in the Printer world; 1. HPQ, by and landslide share of 34%. 2. Canon CAJ, 19.5%. They reported on 4/23 and just modestly beat both revenue & earnings, for the first time in a while. 3. Epson, at 17%. It trades under the ticker SEKEY, which is Seiko Epson COR/ADR, it’s a pink sheet stock (think: Wolf of Wall Street hookers), that’s traded in the OTC over the counter market. I’m prohibited from trading OTC, but if you got access, awesome-sauce! 👍 For the HP-izzel though, there's 2 tickers.. HPQ, the computer/printer stock.. Not HPE, Bad Bad Bad. 3. HPQ reports on May 21, in a week.. and they missed pretty bad in Feb (Pre Quarentined to work from home) and lowered their estimates for this current Quarter (the Quarentine Quarter). Its the QQ son! Canon CAJ, already reported on 4/23 and beat estimates and Epson is over the counter pink sheets.
NYSE:HPQLong
by jgeno
5
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, HPQ EARNINGS; ASHR, GDXJ, EEM PREMIUMEARNINGS: HD (33/24) announces earnings on Tuesday before market open; HPQ (68/38), Thursday after market close. Although the rank/implied metrics are less than stellar, pictured here is an HD June 21st 180/185/200/205 iron condor paying 2.13 (1.06 at 50 max), expected move break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -2.22/2.96. Alternative Trades: June 21st 180/205 short strangle, 2.48 credit (1.24 at 50 max), one standard deviation move break evens, 4.33/9.35 delta/theta metrics. HPQ is a bit hard to work with given its size, which imply that the only way you'll get paid to play is via short straddle. The June 21st 19 is paying 1.60 (.40 at 25 max), with expected move break evens and delta/theta metrics of -5.00/2.23. Alternative Trades: June 21st 18 short put (bullish assumption; potential acquisition play), .45 credit, 29.78 delta, cost basis of 17.55 if assigned (a 7.9% discount over where the stock was trading at Friday close). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SORTED BY RANK/IMPLIED Top 5 By Rank: ASHR (57/30), GDXJ (50/28), EEM (41/21), GDX (40/34), SMH (37/29). Top 5 By Implied: OIH (34/34), EWZ (27/34), XOP (22/31), XBI (35/31), ASHR (57/30). We're a bit close in time for June setups (33 days) and a bit far out for July (61), so would probably wait until the July monthly is closer in time in the absence of absolutely desperation to pile on theta to burn ... .
NYSE:HD
by NaughtyPines
3
HP - Look for signs of strenght. Good day everyone, HPQ just lost about 18% of this value on a single week, 8 weeks of bullish progress ERASED! PANIC AND BLOOD ON THE STREETS! Ok, no. Check daily chart, see how to volume on the selling bars is decreasing? This means the panic is slowly getting absorbed. "Hey, this mean its time to BUY BUY BUY RIGHT?" Answer: No, at least, not YET. Panic absorbed is a good sign yes but this just mean the market will stop panic selling ... For buying we need panic absorbption + bullish/demand signs As we can see the 19 usd level was a previous resistance and recently a good support level , and now the recent daily bars looks like some demand has arrived. I'll keep an eye of the price action behaviour on this stock and IF it show demand signs i'll update it. Enjoyed? leave a like, thanks. This Trading Idea is to be used for educational purposes only. This idea does not represent financial advice and its NOT a signal. You should trade based only on your own technic and knowledge.
NYSE:HPQ
by MarcelMartins
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM, ANF, HPQ EARNINGS; XOP, NFLX, FCX, EEMEARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50: CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy. ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close; the 25 delta 14/19 short strangle, 1.19. HPQ (85/41): Announces Thursday after market close. The Dec 21st 22/23 skinny short strangle is paying 1.45, which makes for a near nominal trade at 25% max (.36 profit). Look for background implied to ramp up to 50 plus; otherwise, pass on a play. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH A RANK >50/IMPLIED >35: USO (100/66): I tend to use this more as of oil volatility indicator than anything (although you can naturally look at that more directly with OVX). Here, it's saying "Sell premium in petro underlyings," which for me means XOP, XLE, or OIH. UNG (96/104): With UNG, I'm waiting for a seasonality short, but think putting on something in December is likely to be too early. January, however, is coming into range (currently 54 DTE). XOP (85/45): A smidge early to go out to January, but the 29/36 is paying a 1.52 in that expiry; the 32/33 "skinny," 3.58. SINGLE NAME WITH A RANK OF >70/IMPLIED >50/EARNINGS IN REAR VIEW: NFLX (78/59): It's still got juice ... . The Jan 18th 25-delta 220/225/300/305 iron condor's paying 2.13 at the mid (but the platform's showing wide markets, so that may not be as hot at NY open). FCX (71/55): The Jan 18th 11 short straddle is paying 1.73. BROAD MARKET: EEM (71/27) QQQ (66/28) IWM (62/24) SPY (39/21) EFA (13/20)
NYSE:CRM
by NaughtyPines
HPQ covered strangle Rather than just holding HPQ stock with hope that it may go higher this year, collecting a 2.5% yield while waiting, I instead plan to sell options premium this week against my $22 cost basis for a higher return on capital. Implied volatility on HPQ is over 30% and rising as we near the earnings report date of May 29 after the close. Of the past 8 quarterly earnings reports, the stock has ended a few percent lower on only 3 occasions. I could sell the stock for a tidy gain around 24 where it reached a couple times already this year. The 24 strike at 21 delta means almost an 80% chance the call will expire worthless and I keep the credit of 25, or about 1.1% of the cost. Because after transaction fees, this credit is small, I'd want to instead A) sell the lower 23 strike at 36 delta for $50 credit, or B) also sell an 'out of the money' put for additional credit (forming a covered strangle) if I'm willing to add to the stock position at a lower price on pullback, or C) both. The trade order for a covered strangle would be something like : SELL -1 STRANGLE HPQ 100 20 JUL 18 23/21 CALL/PUT @1.00 Selling a covered strangle on HPQ is attractive for several reasons: although it means a higher chance of assignment fees at the 30 delta strikes, it brings in nearly 100 credit, which is 4.5% of the current spot price of HPQ (27% annualized). The HPQ daily options volume is only about 8,000 so the 'at the money strikes' closer to the current stock price are the most liquid and easiest orders to fill. At 21 a share adding another lot is a small commitment. Fundamentally, I believe the stock fair value is higher so I'm willing to risk adding another 1 lot of stock if the stock drops or holding if HPQ trades sideways. The price support around 21 looks solid on the stock going back almost a year. The current Trefis fair price estimate for HPQ is around $25. Based on the 2018 EPS estimate of 1.96, and a long term 5% EPS growth over next 3-5 years, my DCF model suggests a current fair value of $25.50- $27 range.
NYSE:HPQLong
by dime
THE WEEK AHEAD: HPQ, COST, XOP, OIH, EWZ, IWMHPQ announces tomorrow after market close; COST on Thursday after market. Neither underlying's rank/implied vol metrics are particularly compelling, however, with the former's implied at 29.6%, the latter at 23.5%. Even so, the 68% probability of profit, ~20 delta COST June 15th 188/207.5 short strangle's paying 2.31; managed early (<50% max), that could make for a nice winner. The only thing that makes remote sense in HPQ is a short straddle, with the June 15th 22 paying a paltry 1.29; early management at 25% max would yield a .32 winner. As far as non-earnings single name plays are concerned, here are the top five underlyings ranked by background implied volatility: TSLA (47.8%; rank 31.1%), P (47.5%; rank 1.4%), RIG (46.2%; rank 11.1%), X (43.2%; 19.9%), and TWTR (40.5%; 15.2%). TSLA, with the highest background implied of the bunch, is paying out 9.38 for the 69% probability of profit July 20th 235/325 short strangle camped out at the 17 delta strikes, with its defined risk counterpart, the 225/235/325/335 paying 2.57 at the mid, with a less than ideal payout of less than one-third the width of the wings. In the exchange-traded fund arena: XOP, OIH, and EWZ round out the top-implied volatility symbols, coming in at 34.8%, 31.8%, and 31.5%, respectively. The XOP July 20th 37/45 short strangle is paying 1.24 with a probability of profit of 68% with break evens at 35.75/46.25; the 41 short straddle -- 3.97 with break evens at 37.03/44.97. With the short strangle, I'd be shooting for 50% max (.62); the short straddle, 25% max (.99). The EWZ July 20th 37 short straddle* is paying 3.47 with break evens at 33.53/40.47; the corresponding iron fly with the longs camped out at ~10 delta -- the 31/37/37/43, pays 3.14 with risk one to make one metrics (max loss of 2.86 versus 3.14 credit received). Lastly, a directional short idea in IWM, pictured on the chart. The setup is a Poor Man's Covered Call or "downside put diagonal." Here are the metrics: 7.23 debit, max loss on setup: 7.23, max profit on setup: 4.77/contract, break even on setup: 161.77, debit paid/spread width ratio: 60.25%. Max profit is realized on finish below the short at expiry, but I'd look to take profit early at 20% of what I put the trade on for (.2 x 7.23 = 1.44), rolling the short put out "as is" on significant decrease in value. * -- My recent tendency has been to go with the short straddle/iron fly in underlyings <$50, bringing in more credit at the door and then proceeding to "manage early" (at 25% max).
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
HPQ Covered Call This covered call play in HPQ is partially an earnings play as well as longer term investment into October. HPQ reports earnings tomorrow after the bell, and currently has an inflated IV rank of 69%, IV 32.9% At the moment, the expected move is +/- 0.9 or 4.7%. Most of the previous 8 earnings reports the stock moved a wider range than this. (Half gaining and half losing). The October 20 covered call at the 32 delta, $20 strike filled instantly for 18.70. This gives a max profit of $130 above $20 by expiry or total return of 6.95% over cost of 18.70. If the call expires worthless, the call premium returns almost 2% on the current stock price (at 59 D.T.E. yields 12% annualized) and I'll aim to continue selling calls against it. With a stock price of 19, a round lot of the stock uses a small part of the portfolio buying power. HPQ as a stock has been improving lately, and some of the fundamentals I'm bullish on are: - Free cash flow yield of 5.4% should support the price of the stock - 2.85% dividend yield (payout ratio under 50%) should support the price of the stock. - Trading below it's year end fair value of $22 based on 1.63 operating E.P.S. and 5.5% long term growth. - Average analyst 12 month target of 21.50, with favorable ratings of 4/5 by CFRA & outperform by C.S. Trefis suggests 'fair value' at 18. - Technically the chart may also suggests a bullish cup and handle pattern. Additional Notes: - Alternatively I considered selling the 18/20 strangle at 30 deltas for $78 credit. This only would have used $555 buying power. - Earnings plays are often considered like a 50/50 coin toss. At a risk 1 : win 1 ratio, the stock must remain above 17.46 by expiry.
NYSE:HPQ
by dime
HPQ Bullish SwingRetest gap. Not enough reward to play the hourly break that's forming. I want it to pull back to the short term resistance level. We barely have enough room for a 2R gain before the longer term resistance level if it works. There are probably better setups out there. That being said, if we do get a retest to the entry level with a bounce, I could see it breaking through the resistance at 18.44 due to the more than a month of sideways action it broke out of today.
NYSE:HPQLong
by Federman19
HP IncHP Inc. is a provider of products, technologies, software, solutions and services to individual consumers, small- and medium-sized businesses, and enterprises, including customers in the government, health and education sectors. The Company provides personal computing and other access devices, imaging and printing products, and related technologies, solutions and services. Its segments include Personal Systems, Printing and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment provides Commercial personal computers (PCs), Consumer PCs, workstations, thin clients, Commercial tablets and mobility devices, retail point-of-sale systems, displays and other accessories, software, support and services for the commercial and consumer markets. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, media, solutions and services, as well as scanning devices. The Corporate Investments segment includes the operations of HP Labs and certain business incubation projects.
NYSE:HPQShort
by karl.media99