Wait for an accumulated 30% drop and BUY at 20286.9 for HSIThe recent drop for HSI started on 20 Jan 2020 at 29174.9.
It would be a good level and good narrative to buy after seeing it dropped for 30% or -8,888 from the last top.
Buy at 20286.9, accumulate below 23631.5.
We would expect the market to stabilize and have a rally before US Election 2020.
Hang Seng HSI
China BottomLooks like China finally realized they're headed for a recession if the rest of the world goes into one. Hang Seng still has a way to go until it hits bottom, and at the rate this is going, probably next week.
Maintaining bearishness until end of next week, even though I expect an up day on Friday as shorts cover before the weekend.
Note that MFI is not oversold yet on the daily or my usual 4 hr chart. I had to post the daily chart just to find teh next support.
Trade Ideas Analysis: USDJPY Check-BackIf a break below and close below of the current candle happens, I will engage a short trade.
Trading at C is not what I advocate traders to do. The reason is that it is not a pattern until it completes and reverses at point D.
In this case, it is possible because it has a Bearish Gartley Pattern that was ahead of it and a check-back to the HSI Arrow and a relatively acceptable reward: risk.
Trade Ideas Position: GBPUSD CrabA bullish deep crab pattern setup and went into consolidation after the HOP level.
Would you see this as a fail deep crab?
The deep crab pattern is still valid, watch closely.
The HSI arrow shows a potential entry for a check back, no doubt the candle has a lower price, but it didn't break and close below the candle that has HSI candle.
Trade Ideas Analysis: EURJPY MA double top pattern with an RSI divergence has shown up. I'm waiting for a checkback to engage for the shorting opportunity.
Some may ask, "Hey Rayn. You just got stop out on this, will you still enter?" My answer to that will be, "Hell YES! Only on the trading strategy that I've tested and currency pairs, I'm familiar with."
Fear cannot block my way up! HSI CALL!
HSI only breaks the previous bottom a little bit while the US market drops 15% and alot more around the globe!
another round of 4 trillion money printing from China and another round of rate dropping coming soon from the Fed will eventually return the whole.
Here, from the chart, Weekly!
assume
BOLD GREEN C = 1.618A and
BOLD BLUE 5 = (1 to 3) x 1.618
light blue is wave 12345 where 5 is in bold blue which is the points from 1-3 times 1.618
both target are around HSI 32800 which is about 7000 points above current level.
There'll be a time study idea indicating a top on OCT(probably 29th like the old date) this year.
The HSI Inverted Weekly Chart - BearishWhile everyone is trying catch a bottom, the HSI Inverted Weekly Chart gives a bearish view on the Hang Seng Index.
The candles from the last three weeks are bearish:
1) A Reversal Red Candle
2) A Gap with Solid Long Red Candle
3) Green Candle with Long Wick
In the coming two weeks it may hit and test the weekly support line at around 25180.
Let's see how the market reacts to the support level.
If selling is strong, it may break below 24000.
The last stand for Hang SengAs the coronavirus outbreak plaques the global markets, Chinese equities have posted an optimistic V-shaped recovery but we've yet to see similar bullish sentiments from the H-shares. With the market testing the critical 26000 support again over the past week, the price actions looks like buyers are struggling to defend the 26000 level. Times are critical as a break below the 26000 support would see a breach of the key trendline support and complete the head and shoulders pattern. I am keeping my eyes peeled.
Trade Ideas Position: GBPUSD GartleyA trend trading setup presents itself, and it has six signs of a potential bearish move.
1. The market is back to the sell zone.
2. Bearish Gartley setup within the sell zone(supply zone)
3. AB=CD pattern setup within the sell zone
4. Arrow showing selling opportunity and market check-back to the arrow
5. Candle consolidate on the top of the band
6. Crab Pattern Target Profit Reversal Zone
I've already engaged the trade and use the stretch technique on this trade.
Hong Kong Stock Index (Dead Cat Bounce)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (3 March 2020)
We are in the rebound mode and it will likely take some time.
HSI is in the grind support region and it can climb up slowly. 26,800 shall be reachable, soon.
But I see the whole thing as a dead-cat bounce phenomenon.
Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account.
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Hang Seng testing supportI fell like all of the bulls are celebrating a bit early because the market finished at the top for the day, futures are determined by global trading and I haven;t seen anything from the Asians or Euros that indicate that they are done selling.
Hang Seng testing support and DAX broke through....
This is why I'm suspecting a double bottom with a lower bottom like Feb 2018. Also the reason why I'm mostly cash over the weekend.
HSI rebounce c in process. CALL
4 hours chart, it should run a week to 3 depends on the market.
wait 28400-28800 for it to fulfill the wave target
by the way, I'm not going to hold overnight over weekend. I don't like the uncertainty on weekend when trumps post a twist and HSI drops over a K points on monday.
What happened when more money is injected into markets ?Take a look at this 3 line charts - SHCOMP, CN50 and HSI respectively. When 1.2 trillion yuan were injected into the markets, the 3 indices did a V shaped recovery almost instantly!
Currently, SHCOMP is in the lead, followed closely by CN50 and HSI with a fairly strong pullback.
The whole world is now watching how China central government will react on its monetary policies as being the world's 2nd largest economy, its action or inaction will have a severe impact on the global economy. The Chinese are the world's largest spenders when they travel and many hotels, restaurants, theme parks even properties are suffering (with some bemoaning they can only withstand for 3 months before they closed shops). This black swan event caught many by surprise and its pervasive and seemingly difficult to control has kept many world's leaders sleepless night.
If you are like me ,a long term investor of China and buy into the China story of it overtaking US in time to come, already with its technologies, this drop is a good opportunity to buy the indices or individual companies at a cheaper price.
We have yet to really see the impact of how these markets will be until the Q1 2020 GDP results are released. Many analysts are hoping this epidemic be contained and number of cases begin to reduce so that business can return to normal.
There are many lessons that we can learn from this event
1. How integrated and connected the global world has become and the importance of collaborating with one another to fight a common battle
2. Business Continuity Plan - When this event is over, I think more meetings will be held in boardroom to discuss how to prevent a disaster like this again. Eg. when business are overly concentrated in China, with 60-70% revenue generating from it will suffer drastically.
Other examples include the businesses that depend on China tourism - Cambodia casino , overseas hotels, restaurants, luxury properties, etc
3. Emerging opportunities - How the tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and others are leveraging on AI to help combat some of the challenges they faced in this crisis. Will this technology become an emerging trend that can be scale up in the future ?
Next, working from home - a yet to catch on concept in Asia, especially China - will it be the catalyst for change in the traditional 9 to 5 working environment ? If the government support this policy, then employees need to purchase properties that is near to subway or close proximity to their offices thus reducing on hefty mortgage loan. Working from home also introduce a whole set of new changes such as video conferencing, screen sharing, encryption of files sharing,etc. We can take a leaf from the European countries and adopt this work from home culture.
In short, as trader and investor, we must remain stay open to opportunities and not miss the woods by focusing too much on the trees within.