Hang Seng (HSI1!) closed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in a month and confirmed the rejection of August 30. That was a Lower High within the established Channel Down pattern that started on the May 20 High. This Channel Down is so far following a similar structure with the one that covered the entirety of 2023. The August 30...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern and since the start of this week, it's sideways around the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) remains intact, we continue to be bearish within this pattern, targeting 16000 next (Support 1), expecting this to be the start of the new Bearish...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been consolidating on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 4 straight days. Technically it is an attempt to form a bottom, which includes also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the April 19 Higher Low. The last time a trend both the 1D MA50 and 0.5 Fib was on December 28 2023 and 2 days later. As you can see that was a...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) has started a technical pull-back after getting rejected at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Bullish Megaphone. The minimum correction within this 4-month pattern has been -5.29%, so we are looking to buy after such a dip, potential 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (19700). This is the standard target...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) is trading within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Down and as long as the 1D MA200 holds as a Resistance, we will continue selling every Lower High. The structure of the pattern is similar to the 2021/22 Channel Down. Once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will have a confirmed sell...
Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Channel Down throughout the whole year. As the rice hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) on December 11 and the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new Bullish Leg towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend trend-line) and the to (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. The average rise within this pattern has...
Today, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018...
This is a short update to HSI. I will expect that the burst up today is a corrective wave 4 and for the next 2 weeks, a correction down to 15000.
Exemplarily, Hang Seng has thumbed our target zone and turned upwards from there. Thus, we classify wave 2 in turquoise as complete. Now, wave 3 in turquoise should carry Hang Seng above the resistance at 21 056 points. The counter movement of wave 4 in turquoise should then push the index back toward this mark before the ascent can be resumed once again. However,...
HSI went oversold again. China goes down, Bitcoin goes down. BTC seems like it's trading along with China for the past month. Probably a weak bounce tonight, China has been very bearish lately.
In this update we review the recent price action in the Hang Seng and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives tot a
Hang Seng is still busy in the magenta-colored zone between 20 867 and 18 707 points. On the one hand, the index has slowed the descent and could very well have completed wave (4) in magenta by now, readying itself to take off. After all, the requirements for the current movement’s conclusion have already been met by touching at the magenta-colored zone. On the...
I said yesterday afternoon that I was bearish on China, look at MFI on this chart. It's basically at support now so I flipped my puts this morning. At least I found one index where indicators still work, lol. US/Euro markets in a complete melt up.
Oversold on monthly RSI but it's also in no man's land as far as support. For some reason, I think this can go down even more, maybe until MFI gets oversold? Probably hits bottom when they invade Taiwan. They're just waiting for Russia to escalate knowing the US can't fight 2 wars.
In case you're wondering why everything is red, China tanked last night Oversold on every time frame, 3 hr, daily, and weekly but I ain;t touching this one.
Hang Seng looks to be in a C wave which means a bottom near 11000 support level is likely. After that flush I would say China is probably a long term hold, especially once it gets back over the monthly trendline. Monthly RSI is about to close at it's lowest levels ever.
My boldest predition: Are we going to break this balance area? If yes, based on "balance rules", we may see new low of year 16,000~ish within 1 to 2months Please feel free to comment!
Above 676, target 762/824 Below 570, target 517/487/404 #marketprofile #volumeprofile #orderflow #chartanalysis #chartporn $HSI ***** I use this platform as a way to organize my thoughts and plan for my personal trading for the sessions to come. Do not misconstrue this newsletter as actionable trading advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts as a market operator...