Hopes crushed?? Is Bitcoin Bearish??Over the last week we've seen a lot of optimism in our markets, but are we getting faked out?
Please refer to the charts below, there is no technical analysis whatsoever on the chart posted above.
It is worth noting that SPY has shown signs of relief and earnings are not as bad as anticipated...
With that being said a relief bounce was expected, but have we met our end regarding BINANCE:BTCUSDT
We previously witnessed Bitcoin break it's bearish market structure and head to the upside, however it has once again broken that same structure on the HTF and began showing bearish signals.
Bitcoin had been dancing in it's previous range above 22,500 which was considered bullish. Here you can see the break down of that range and it's points of confluence on the 15 minute chart.
Chart-
As you can tell we've broken down through that range low, and now it's time to pay attention to the previous ranges from last week on the 4h HTF.
Here's that labeled chart, I'll go into detail after...
Chart-
This timeframe is where your focus needs to be...
As you can see last week we broke out of Bearish Market structure on the 4H (Why Optimism is high), however we have now broken back down through that MBS level. We look to head down here if we begin breaking those previous resistances which are now support from last weeks ranges. I expect Bitcoin to find some support through the value area but if you are a positional trader your main focus should be on major areas of confluence.
Remember, we can't predict the market, but we can find points of confluence and observe which direction price action takes from the levels.
We have major confluence at 20,300 and here's why...
This is the middle of our range, and Equilibrium found using the .5 level on the Fibonacci tool. This level is also very powerful in the fact that the , middle of our range finds confluence with our point of control, found using the Volume profile tool.
I plan to watch this area closely to make trade decisions if we begin to head towards it.
However this level could become irrelevant if we decide to reclaim the recent range above 22,500, only time will tell.
it's best to watch the high and low points of these ranges to conclude an overall market sediment, however for now am no longer bullish since Bitcoin has returned to last weeks range.
HTF
TESLA sold $936 million dollars worth of BTC, End of the rally?NASDAQ:TSLA reportedly sold $936 million dollars, 75% of their BINANCE:BTCUSDT Position.
What does this mean for the Crypto market...
It's still too early to tell if this news will be the catalyst that sends BTC back down, however here are some key levels to watch.
BTC has taken support after rejecting from a strong supply level on the daily timeframe which was found back in December of 2020. BTC has returned to our recent supply level which is now acting as demand.
This level at 22,550 is very important in the fact that it has market a change of character or trend for the previous impulses. Candles opening below this level is quite bearish.
Now it is still very likely we rise from here, BTC still looks healthy sitting above this demand zone, I'm just analyzing the downside after the recent news.
A break through the resistance at 24,300 would indicate a continuation of this rally and I'm still bullish as long as we stay above the levels I previously stated.
Has Bitcoin turned BULLISH? Here are some Key breakout levels...BTC has broken out of the down trend it has followed from 48k to 17.6k that I discussed in my previous idea which I'll link below.
Though we have broken out the channel, how do we confirm a bullish sentiment for Bitcoin?
Refer to the CHoCH(Change of character) which marks a confirmed change of trend.
Here are the key levels needed for me to feel confident in a Bitcoin bull rally.
Confirmed breakout price-23,400
Check this recent Idea linked below to understand Bitcoins down trend and market structure
Also a clear return to the channel would be a quiet bearish sign for me...
It's too early to be Bullish on BitcoinAs I put aside all news and prior catalyst and focus purely on the Price Action of Bitcoin, my analysis shows that BTC has not yet confirmed a Bullish sentiment.
BTC still has not broken out of the channel it has followed from 48k to it's recent low up 17.7k, with that being said I need to see a break of structure to the upside to feel confident taking any potential longs on the HTF.
Please refer to the chart below for a better understanding of the Market Structure that has taken place during Bitcoins downtrend.
As you can see, BTC has continued to follow this channel and follow the cycle of Accumulation and Expansion/Distribution
The power of three(Accumulation,Manipulation,Distribution) can also be used to map out these large areas of accumulation for lower timeframe trades. If you're interested in learning such I've published an Idea on ADA with the same principles I used to Catch a BTC long from 19.3k-21k
I am very aware and up to date of our current market sentiment, I understand we have seen some bullish news and signs of a relief bounce on the S&P 500. Along with the fact that we have had a lot of volume for a crypto weekend, and we could very well have a positive week, I am just demonstrating the fact that BTC still hasn't confirmed a reversal to protect fellow traders.
Standard chartered HTF. Bulls are back in town.Afternoon chaps and chapettes, we are looking at STAN forming a multi-year descending wedge, if we break out we should see some nice upside.
RSI has worked its way out of resistance from circa 2007.
Will go into more detail zoomed into the daily.
UK banks have the lowest exposure to Russia comparable to the rest of Europe, Standard chartered has no direct meaningful exposure which is of course very positive.
Most of Standard Chartered exposure comes from Asia which means interest rate hikes will be lesser impactful on income due to Asia generally cutting rates.
Targeting 8-10% growth up from 5-7%.
$750mln buy back program initiated at the last earnings report.
BTC might see 50k levels in near futureI know it's been pretty dull for BTC lately but I see possibility of 50k levels to come soon, confirmation of strong bull trend will be when bottom indicator moves above 0 or yellow line.
One reason for above observation is that lately price action has been compressed and I feel its an indication of big player interest area, do not be surprised if current levels are avg price for the most big players when the price ends up really going to 50k
I can't speak on time required for this but I estimate at least 4-5 months.
BITCOIN HTF OUTLOOK (BEARMARKET)Here come my thoughts on the Bitcoin situation at a macro scale. 3 deviations (65k, 67k, 69k) to bait longs and tap liquidity in the market. We are clearly in a bear market on the HTF and I don't expect it to be over any time soon. Many sucker rallies happening but don't forget that these easily fade quickly in a bear market.
Since the beginning of 2022 Bitcoin has been trading in a range that looks like a redistribution range, again 2 deviations might be going for a third and final deviation in this range before finally seeing 30k's. Obviously order book showing lots of buy orders resting at 30k, there is no doubt we go below here to get everyone to exit their positions. This is where you will see the "bear market has started" news which was happening already before their eyes.
Now reasons as to why I'm calling 24-20k bottom:
CME Gap on Bitcoin futures
Daily and weekly demand zones
20k would be a retest of the old ATH from late 2017 that never got backtested
I want to entertain the idea that 2021 was the beginning of a big accumulation range/structure as we have been trading in a range on the HTF. If that is truly the case we have yet to see the "super cycle" everyone is talking about which will be something we truly have not seen before. Do with this information as you will!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE [
US Stock In Play: $HRT$HRT - 6 months into its IPO. latest post ER trading on 22/3 displayed an episodic pivot (@PradeepBonde) behaviour.
currently a HTF setup with declining wedge pattern on lowering volume. key level to be taken out coincides with VWAP from IPO and ER, and a flattening 10MA at $16
Consolidation after breakout. Platinum is consolidating after a breakout of a descending triangle that spans two decades. Eyeing a breakout of descending channel.
RSI approaching bullish territory.
Volume is very strong and has been since the retest of triangle pattern .
Will be looking at buying all dips on weakness.
US Stock In Play: $TXRH$TXRH operates and franchises restaurants under Texas Roadhouse
breaking out of its second HTF, & VWAP from ATH on its wkly. RS bullish divergence from dec to feb is reflected on daily.
one could position this on wkly as a hedge if you are overloaded with O&G & commodities name
US Stock In Play: $RADA$RADA in aerospace and defense industry, the leading ig now. they offer defense tech, and sells electronics to air forces and companies worldwide
wkly acton is a HTF spanning 2 yrs. broke out of VWAP from 52-weeks high yday with +250% ATR and +400% avg vol.
key pivot at $13.50
BTC - Lifecycle and S/R LevelsNot predictive analysis, just a quick reference with support and resistance levels marked across Bitcoin’s lifecycle. We are currently at a key resistance after bouncing from a mid-channel support.
I think this chart reflects reduced volatility since 2021, indicative of growing trust, maturity and liquidity.