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GBPJPY 5- 9 July Weekly Outlook and Trade Plan - 4H ChartGBPJPY Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Previous Day: Bullish Weekly : Still reacting to the formed Year High reached and the Weekly resistance formed on Jan 2018 but holding bullish weekly structure with June 21 Support formed. Daily : Structure is solid bullish respecting every zone created during the bullish run since March 2020. currently we are holding support above daily zone low at 151.24 where price formed a solid support trying to push again to the 155 year high, but failed to hold above the broken support at 154.60 forming a lower high. On a daily short term view we are looking bearish with LL/LH formation. If we managed to close below 152.70 a retest to the lows at 151.50 is expected with more potential to extend the move down further. A close above 154.00 will give the opportunity to test the broken support at 154.80 and 155 level. Holding support at these levels will indicate that retracement from the Year High is finished and we can expect a new year high to form after reaching 156. 4H : Structure still showing LH/LL formation which is keeping GBPJPY to the down side. With the completion of a TOL/Retest of the broken daily support at 154.20 and a resistance formation below will open for more down side. No Major news for GBP and JPY during this week, but we have the G20 meeting on Thu and Fri, so would expect markets to have some reactions with any news coming out from there. COT report showing GBP Longs are decreasing during the past 12 weeks while JPY Shorts are still strong. That will keep GBP/JPY to the upside.
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 31 May to 4 June 2021 Weekly Trade PlanEURNZD This is my 31 May– 4 June 21 Week Trade Plan for EURNZD Glad that i'm back after a long break again to my favorite habit "Charting" Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - After creating new high at 1.7020 resistance, EURNZD couldn't hold a support above the resistance zone 6980/7020 along with previous week news on Wednesday that leaded for more NZD strength pushing the price into the tough ranging zone 6800/6680. - The current drop in EURNZD still holding above the solid support zone 6650/6600 which could lead to a range plays from lows to retest the highs at 7020. - COT report still showing that NZD longs are firm and at the highest of the year and shorts are still weak, which means that i do expect EURNZD to maintain the bearish momentum and continue it's down move and any spike in price up reaching a solid resistance level/zone is going to get rejected and will give a solid opportunity for Shorts. - Seasonality showing that NZD will weaken till mid May and strength till end of May continuing into June to create new NZD highs which will lead EURNZD to create a new low. - Technically, i'm looking for EURNZD to still range between 7020/6650, which makes me look for longs from range lows and shorts from range highs as long no break and support/resistance formation above Sup/Res zones marked. - On Friday, RBNZ Gov Orr will have a speech on London session open which will cause NZD to be volatile, so taking cautious at that time will be recommended. Daily Chart: Weekly Chart: Monthly Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
XRP - MonthlyJust something I noticed on the higher timeframes with XRP We have tapped the Dec 2017 & Jan 2018 candle body closes / open perfectly and showing a solid rejection. $1.96 is a solid reversal zone being the 12M candle closes as well as the Monthly candle closes. I will go into more detail about why this is a solid reversal point in the next post on the Weekly Timeframe for more confluences. And also refer back to my previous post for the Daily Timeframe completing the analysis. My idea is that we can easily come back to sub $0.30 after this rejection to see the Dec 2020 & Jan 2021 candle body closes / open. More reasons as to why is the next 2 posts!
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by jakedubbz
8
Argument for Shorting TECK.It took me 2 hours to review 5 charts with this method of analysis. That is obviously not efficient enough, but I was really pleased with the way my ideas continually flowed into one another until I came up with a "solution". Have I created order out of this chaos? Probably not, but this is what I came up with and I'm really excited to see if it plays out. Normally, I am trying to do all of this in my head, so it felt really good to write it down on the chart for once. Definitely need to refine this approach. From my perspective it is like if you were training to run a marathon by running for 30 miles. The marathon will never be easy, but compared to 30 miles maybe it will be achievable with regularity. Realistically, I'm the 400/800 guy, but I prefer my suffering long and drawn out L.O.L.
NYSE:TECKShort
by emehoke
GBPJPY - 5-9 April Weekly Trade PlanGBPJPY Monthly: Bullish Weekly Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish COT: GBP : Long 68% - Short 32% (Strong) JPY : Long 23% - Short 77% (Weak) Monthly: Solid bullish and with previous month close above 150.40 indicates a bullish continuation to target current monthly resistance at 155. Weekly: Solid Bullish after 22-26 March week candle tested broken resistance 148.85 and bounced with a long nice lower wick. While last week closed solid bullish above the resistance formed at 151.62. Current weekly resistance is 153.84 April 2018 weekly candle wick then 155. Daily: Strong Bullish momentum with close above previous resistance formed at 151.90 and with GBP is currently strong and JPY is weak from COT data that is already reflected on the chart, bullish momentum continuation is expected to extend further to target 155. Retracement should be contained within 151.90/151. So I've 2 Scenarios for next week as following: Scenario 1 : Looking for GJ to retrace and form a support between 152.26 and 151.84 to confirm creating a HL to extend the bullish momentum and to test highs Scenario 2 : A failure to create a support will indicate a LH is formed and we may extend the correction to test 150.68 Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart: Daily Chart Outlook:
by Amr_Sadek
GBPJPY - 22 March - 2 April 21 Weekly Trade PlanGBPJPY This is my 29 March – 2 April 21 Week Trade Plan for GBPJPY Monthly: Solid bullish and with a close above 150.40 will open the door to test 153.84 / 154.90 but still a close above 152.62 the May/Aug 13 zone high that is holding GJ from any upside. Weekly: Solid Bullish with previous week candle tested broken resistance 148.85 and bounced with a long nice lower wick. But still minor weekly resistance formed at 151.62 will be holding any up move until a close above 152.62 Close above the weekly resistance is required for further up move but still a close above 152.62 Monthly range high will give solid confirmation Close below will indicate a top formed with rejection from M range and a correction to the up move is due Daily: Solid Bullish with support formed at 148.76 after testing 24 to 26 zone 149.63 / 148.30. A Resistance zone 151.74/151.91 to be a rejection point for any further up move. A solid close above will indicate bullish momentum continuation. So I've 2 Scenarios for next week as following: Scenario 1 : Looking for GJ to retrace and form a support between 151.63 and 149.86 to confirm creating a HL to extend the bullish momentum and to test highs Scenario 2 : A failure to create a support will indicate a LH is formed and we may test the lows created at 148.76 and may be continuation Weekly trade plan 4H Chart: Daily Analysis Chart: Weekly Analysis Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 29 March - 2 April 21 Week Trade PlanEURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD managed finally to break the range 1.6660/1.6520 to the upside with a solid 300 pip bullish candle which was due to NZD housing prices and Risk Off sentiment in market (NZD is a risk driven currency) reaching a solid resistance zone 1.7020/1.6980. - Currently resistance zone is a historical Sup/Res that did hold for several times. Lately acted as a solid resistance during Jan in a ranging area from 1.7020 1.6820. - COT report showing that NZD long positions are getting closed while NZD shorts are not increasing which means that this is a take profit for Long positions and still not a change in positions to Short NZD. We need more views on next 2 weeks positioning in order to have clear view on position changes. - Seasonality showing that EURNZD will reach it’s top this month and will start continuing it’s bearish trend. Which could justify the spike this month along with the COT long positions. - I’m looking for EURNZD to range between 1.7020/1.6820 after the current run from the lows created at 1.6500 which acts as a HL after the 1.6320 LL created in Feb. - Will prefer longs with support formation above 1.6700 to retest the highs created at 1.6980 and may be continuation. And shorts with resistance formation below 1.6980 to retest the broken range high at 1.6660/1.6620 - Building Permits on Tuesday and Consumer Confidence on Thursday may give some move during Asian Session but not trend changer. Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 22-26 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Can't find a clear direction for EURNZD now as we are in a very tide range for 3 weeks. A break of this range and a sustain momentum after the break will give us a clear way where we are heading. I recommend not to trade EURNZD till a clear direction. Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are closing longs and Shorts had increased to 40% from 30% last week. With such change in positions, we could see EURNZD move to the upside but be cautious that this could be a profit taking for Long position. Will monitor COT report in coming weeks to clearly understand the positions swaps. - As for news this week, the important are on Monday Westpac Consumer Survey and Wednesday Trade Balance which will move the market. Trade Plan Daily Chart: Also refer to my last week analysis for more details:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 15-19 March 21 Week Trade PlanFX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - EURNZD still ranging between 1.6700 / 1.6560 after creating low at 1.6320 triggered by Interest Rate Decision and retraced back the whole down move. The range high is contained below the daily support at 1.666x with rejection to hold above 1.6700. - Looking for either support formation above 1.6700 to trigger Long positions or resistance formation below 1.6570 to trigger shorts. Also, current range trades could be played till we break this range 1.6700/1.6560. So, I may look to Short on 4H Res formation below 1.6700 and Long on Solid 4H formation above 1.6560. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Important news for NZD this week on Thursday GDP and Wednesday Rate Decision which will move the NZD. Week Trade Plan Daily Chart: Daily Levels Daily Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 08-12 March 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD edged a bit higher last week away for ranging zone 6650/6550 at 6760 a bit shy from the major resistance at 6820 that is currently acting as a solid barrier for EURNZD. But on 4H a HH/HL we can see a HH/HL formation that may act as a trigger to test the 6820 resistance. - A Solid HTF Support formation above 6820 will indicate that a low formed for a 7020 target. Failure to sustain a support above 6820 and with HTF solid resistance formation below 6820 will be a sign for bearish momentum continuation and we may retest the lows created at 6320 - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD to continue bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Friday Business NZ PM and some important news for China on Wednesday may move NZD during Asia Session. Weekly Outlook Chart: Daily Outlook Chart: Weekly Trade Plan:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 01-05 March 21 Week Trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Previous Daily : Bullish - EURNZD as expected created a lower resistance below 6660 which pushed EIRNZD to create a new low at 6320 helped by Interest rate news and NZ economical optimism. The new low created triggered a hard pullback as it was Feb End and profit taking which currently pushed EURNZD again above 6660. - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD continued bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken in March, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid support formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Wednesday Building Permits and RBNZ's Governor Orr speech on Thursday. Monthly Outlook: Weekly Outlook: Daily Outlook: Weekly Trade Plan 4H Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD 22-26 Feb 21 Week trade Plan FX:EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish - EURNZD failed to hold above 6820/45 resistance zone and rejected multiple time during last week tide range. Breaking lows on Friday reaching weekly planned TP2 at 6590. Refer to last week plan: - The COT report showing that NZD buyers are still in control and increasing their NZD long positions. Still NZD sellers are not into market yet and this adds confirmations for EURNZD continued bearish momentum. - Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end Feb, but still NZD holding and continuing it's strength. We could see some reversals on EURNZD as we had created new lows, but still such spikes are opportunities for better shorts. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; i'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - Important news for NZD this week on Tuesday Retail Sales and Interest Rates for China on Monday.
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 08-12 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan EURNZD Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Slightly Bullish - EURNZD finally broken the range and closed below 1.6780 reaching 1.6720 and barely 1.6620, meaning we are in a very solid bearish momentum. - The COT report showing that NZD sellers are picking up for the first time since the start of 2021 but still not a confirmation that buyers are out yet. I anticipate that this could be the spike that EN does with each new low created. - Seasonality is not correlated with the current PA as NZD strengthen during Feb and created a pick now while Seasonality is showing ranging and a bit of weakness for NZD. I'll wait for this week to clarify a bit to confirm. - So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level. - Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs. - We have important news for NZD on Tuesday and Friday for Inflation and Business PMI also some news from China on Wednesday which also effects NZD. Daily Chart : Weekly Chart :
by Amr_Sadek
2
Backtesting retest Break of Market Structure on Multi TimeframeStrategy Create a zone from the order block which created break of market structure on 1D timeframe Wait for it to be tested on 4H timezone => which will create new 4H order block Trade the retest of that 4H order block Color coding & icon use Green boxes : 1D order block zone Yellow boxes : 4H order block zone Tick icon : Trade won on 4H Cross icon : Trade lost on 4H Circle with cross icon : Trade in breakeven Win / loss assumptions Win : 3R movement without breaking -1R Loss : -1R movement Breakeven : 1R movement, followed by -1R movement Risk Management 50% TP @ 1R 25% TP @ 2R 25% TP / Trade closure @ 3R RR achieved = 3R Net R achieved = 1.75R Strategy results Testing duration : Jan 2020 - Jan 2021 Wins = 16 Loss = 7 Breakeven = 4 Non-losers = 74% Absolute Winners = 59% Net RR = 21 Avg R/Win = 1.31R Avg R/Trade = 0.78R
Education
by makuchaku
8