Hurstcycles
[Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book.
Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun.
In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle".
Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward.
Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle.
The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles.
• 30-year cycle
• 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8)
• 15-year cycle - (360X4/8)
• 10-year cycle - (360X1/3)
• 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8)
If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery. For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market.
When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point.
Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory.
ericresearch.org
Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months
Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later.
Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks
The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index.
Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70.
Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market?
Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized.
There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference.
·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years.
·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years.
·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years.
·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years.
It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements.
I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018.
The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985.
It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024.
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SPX's "Game " of prediction, possibilities, & probabilities !!!20 weeks cycle's analysis.
1/Achieving the minimum of past
3 bullish 20 weeks cycle is around
4522 (whether it's relevant or no
is beyond my knowledge & this idea)
2/Achieving the minimum of the past
3 bullish 20 weeks cycle is around
5.26.2021 & Maximum 8.12.2021
"Time wise"
Bitcoin has crossed below the 6H support cloud As my title states. It has crossed the support cloud on the 6H time frame. The next resistance cloud is around $50k. I highly question we are about to enter a bull rally
GBPJPY BUYWhat happened? Weekly candle wicks down to 124.00 level it was respected and price rejected support, bouncing out of the 40 week cycle trough.
Whats going to happen? never know but what we know from the cyclic phase analysis is that price is currently in a bullish phase until July 7th where the bearish phase is expected to begin gaining momentum.
Whats happening? Price is currently completing a 80 day cycle (56D) trough. hoping we'll start to see more upside volatility
USDCAD LONGprice currently bouncing out of 2O day cycle trough from the previous 20 day triple top/peak cycle.
expecting similar patterns to play out this time around a cross back over the fld for a short term short trade and then long from cross back upwards to first of possible 3 peaks.
Silver bouncing out of a 40 Day trough.Hello Traders,
Dont pay much attention to the all them messing lines Ive drawing on the chart, they are scribbled on a shorter time frame.
TROUGH ANALYSIS
As I trade the 80 day cycle, targets are generated using the 20 Day FLD, Price is currently below the 20 Day FLD. Todays Median Price of this FLD
is 15.51 taking the Pivot point of the low of the 40 day trough (on 21st April) at 14.50 Target comes to 16.52
I have my buys set at the cross point might change them based on the price action on shorter time frame.
These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), depending upon the position of the FLD. I'll update as they change.
Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
Shorting to the 12 Day trough,a larger downmove is also possibleHello Traders,
As I mentioned in my last post, I like to trade a shorter nominal model for this pair as against the standard hurst model.
Having met both the peak targets it's now time for price to come to the 12 Day trough of the nominal 48 day cycle(my primary trade cycle)
These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), with the change in the FLD.
TARGETS
As I trade the 48 day cycle therefore I look at the 12 Day Future line of Demarcation (FLD) for target generation.
Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.40677, Pivot point will be the peak high, which is at 1.42647 this gives us the target of 1.38707.
Now looking at the price action this target seems a little low as we are bouncing out of a 13 week trough marked of 13th April and we should normally expect more upside than downside. We can have a higher target if the price crosses the FLD not tomorrow but maybe in a couple of days later.
However, looking at the long term phasing of my analysis, the larger trough of 12 month is lurking in the distance and is expected in late june and we are currently in the second half of this 12 month cycle, so we can expect the cycles to be left translated(bearish looking) and magnate towards this 12 month trough. I am not ruling out the possibility of a higher high than the one registered on the 21st of April before descending into the 12 month trough but probability of a larger decline increases with each passing day.
Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
40 Day peak likely in, trading to the 40 Day Trough.The Target for the 40 Day peak has been met at 1.26065 and I am currently in my last long position with a trailing stop from the bounce out of the 20 day trough marked on 07th April, the start of the cycle being on 20th of March.
As of today we are 26 days into the cycle and should start descending into the 40 day trough anytime now.
The 20 Day Future Line of Demarcation (FLD) has a median price of 1.24216 for tomorrow, this will be our cross point. The peak high will be our pivot point which as of right now is 1.26471 this gives us the target for the 40 day trough of 1.21961.
I have my sell stop orders set that the above mentioned cross point.
I trade EOD charts, and the FLD levels (Cross points) change everyday so I update them accordingly.
Might be bouncing out of a 40 day Trough right about now.Hello Traders,
For USD/CAD I track two nominal models based on troughs, one being the standard Hurst nominal model and another a shorter Nominal model which also works well with this pair.
Note: these targets change daily ( as I trade EOD) based on the position of FLD, I will try to update them as we go along. Also these targets are based on my brokers data (alpari internationals) and not oanda so prices will differ slightly
As per the Standard Hurst Model :
40 day Cycle
a) 40 day trough is imminent as today is the 44th day in the cycle. As we are in the second half of the larger nominal 18 month cycle, cycles expanding is length is what we expect.
b) Todays 10 D FLD median price is 1.39760(cross point) and we take the pivot point 1.38550(low of 13th april) gives a target of 1.4097 . If this is achieved we will have reason to believe the 40 day trough is in on the 13th
80 Day Cycle
c) Considering the 80 day cycle, tomorrows 20 day FLD price is 1.41720(crosspoint) and by taking the same pivot point as above, 1.38550, we get a target of 1.4489
Shorter Nominal Model : (12 month/26weeks/13weeks/48days/24days/12days/6days/3days)
48 day Cycle
d) the 48 day cycle seems to be running long as today would be the 54th day in the cycle( which is not out of ordinary as mentioned above). This 48 day trough as per my model should be synchronous with the trough of next longer cycle trough which is 13 week.
e)the trough of 27th march doesn’t seem to be of 13 week magnitude because of it's week bounce. If this is the case then the expected trough should be forming right about now.
f) Targets for this bounce out of the 48 day cycle will be arrived at by 12 day FLD, which has its median price for tomorrow at 1.39760 the pivot point will be the low of 13t april, 1.38550 thus providing us with the target of 1.4097 ( same as in point (b) )
13 Week cycle
g) Considering the bounce from a 13 week perspective, 24 day FLD median rpice form tomorrow is 1.41676, Pivot point 1.38550 gives us the Target as 1.44809 (almost as same as point (c) )
As the overall trend is strongly down and the larger magnitude trough approaching long positions should be entered with caution, position size should be low and profit should be protected with tight SL. I will play this scenario after some confirmationss
PS : if the above scenario does not play out, then it would present quite a bearish cycle picture and we should quickly reverse position.
Gold 40 Day peak likely in, trading move to the 40 Day Trough. (TROUGH BASED ANALYSIS)
We can see a rising wedge in price action as well as the RSI, pointing to the 40 day peak being established and we should now be moving towards the 40 Day trough. Today we are 28 days into the cycle which makes the 40 Day trough imminent.
20 day FLD has a median price of 1631.24(Cross point) for 14.04.2020, if the pivot Point is todays high(as of now) of 1691.29, this gives us a target of 1571.19 for the 40 Day trough.
10 day FLD has a median price of 1649.21, if the same pivot point of 1691.29 is taken, target is 1606.93 for the 40 Day trough.
Placing an Entry based on the most recent horizontal price support of 1640 (rounded off) and Aiming for the target based on the 20 day FLD ie 1571.19 (Being the True Cycle Target).
While the First Target will be around the Target given but the 10 Day FLD and The second Target will be the True Cycle Target based on
Day FLD (As In trading the 80 Day Cycle)
The broader trend is up (considering the trough analysis), I've marked the 18 month trough on 16th of March, and if this is the case, we can expect the True cycle target to maybe missed by a few point so have to stand gaurd to book profits!
Note : these targets are based on price action of Alpari International (my broker) and not Oanda, the chart you see above.
NEM : Daiy chart, pullback expected - minor cycle bottomNow that we have looked at our view on weekly charts, lets look at the daily charts. (attached below the analysis on weekly charts, better t read that first to have the forthlooking view)
Weekly chart on the minor cycle suggests a minor pullback in the beginning of March 2020. As we are aware, price may bottom a few candles around this and we may expect last week of Feb and the first week of March to show a minor pullback. Price around $42 and $41 is an important cycle resistance/ support zone from previous weekly cycles.
A look at the candles and we can see some signs of signals of short term market overbought conditions and also RSI showing overbought status.
Wait for the pullback and then price may retest the upper resistance zone
Look out for more action on this!
NVDA- bullish movementsShares of Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) rallied 1.7% toward a record high in premarket trading Wednesday, after Bernstein analyst turned bullish on the graphics chip maker, citing upcoming product cycles, near-term catalysts and the resumption of hyperscale spending. They have raised his rating to outperform, after being at market perform for the past year. They have boosted the stock price target to $360, which is 21% above Tuesday's closing price of $296.57, from $300. Price is already up about 5.3% today as I pen down this review
Lets now look at the charts from a cycle perspective and see what is expected.
We are in a upside zone in the 42 day cycle, one that the stock has been following well. In this bullish phase, positive news can have expanded favorable movements, as we are witnessing. As shown in the charts, as the cycle matures, somewhere in the first week of March 2020, one may expect a minor test of support levels as minor cycle bottoms, and price should likely find support in todays gap up opening around 297 levels being strong, until breached. As the larger cycle matures around end of March/ First week of April 2020, price is expected to make a cycle bottom, NVDA should like find support around (price around $284 to $275 ), the upward window and the previous window $262 to $264.
Hope this finds value and buying on dips may be a god option specially around support zones.
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CVS - weekly chart cycle analysisToday I am going to review the chart for CVS health Corporation on a weekly timeframe. CVS seems to be following in 18 to 19 week cycle and we saw the latest cycle low being formed with the candle reflecting 27 Jan 2020.
On 12th Feb 2020, CVS reported earnings that broadly beat the street’s estimates. CVS reported adjusted EPS of $1.73, which beat estimates of $1.68. The company reported revenue of $66.9B, which also beat estimates of $63.97B. The company forecasted annual EPS from $7.04 – $7.17 in 2020, which was in-line with analyst expectations of $7.15
Lets look at what the charts are suggesting.
CVS has started the upward move as suggested with the beginning of the cycle over the last couple of weeks after bottoming out around $ 67.81 levels.
CVS is in a very bullish intermediate-term cycle pattern with negative momentum. Given these conditions, we would expect short-term sell-offs to be limited to the intermediate Fibonacci support zone beginning at 70.58. There is a likelihood the stock tests 79 by May 2020
Price is inching upwards towards 75-76 levels, which is the first zone of resistance. This level is important resisitance as this reflects previous cycle high (failed upward move) witnessed during Nov 2019 to Mid Jan 2020. Also, this level shows confluence with Fib levels.... 0.786 levels and hence may act as short term resistance . Once this is cleared, next resistance at 81 to 82.5 levels. As indicated in the chart, this is also cycle high and the previous peak levels , where prices failed to hold on and got into a major declining phase. These levels were last witnessed in Nov and Dec 2018.
Price should find support around 69 to 71 levels in the short term.
For the bears to regain control and for us to revisit our belief, we will require a daily price close below 66.73
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BTC GENIE-CYCLES & MOTREND: Beginning of a strong TrendThe merging of the short and long cycle length Hurst Cycles in addition to the upswing of the Laguerre moving filter set to 40 days, make a long entry in the next couple a good entry point to capture the beginning of the next long term trend. As the Genie-Cycles indicator is projecting, (transparent bubbles on right of chart) expect a reversion period prior to next leg up. Bottom chart MOTREND is indicating the beginning of a new trend as well. Stiffness indicator on unbroken upswing. It is what it is until it isn't ;√)
RH - positive and likely uptrend continuation - cyclic toolsNYSE:RH
This time its time to look at RH
RH has been moving upwards and forming an uptrend since early June 2019.
A quick look on the chart and we can establish a few key support/ resistance lines
Support 1 : 218.23
Support 2 : 206.60
Support 3 – 192.12
Support 4 : 171.34
Resistance – Stop buy entry level : 228.72
Resistane 2: 243.84
There seems to be chart formation happening. On breakout above 229, one could expect a continuation of trend
Upward Price target- 270
Interestingly, price seems to be making a trough or a intermediate corrections on the trend every 14 days. If this is the case, then yesterdays price close could be a near time low for the 14 day cycle. Next important day to look for is 30th Jan and then 13th Feb 2020 for next low on the cycle.
Interesting times ahead given that US and China trade wars seems to be moving in the positive direction
Please note this is not an offer to advisory, please consider account size and risk management tools
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BTC has some room to go up and hold the long term bearish trend" The bottom is in " is what they say. That's not what I'm seeing on my chart and it's this kind of market sentiment I like to see when making short predictions.
If you zoom out on the chart, you'll see Bitcoin has some room to go up while still maintaining the long term bearish trend.
I'm seeing 4200-4300 as a good range to short if we get there. This range aligns with the long term trend line and Fibonacci extension from the recent impulse move up. BTC is also currently in the range of high count peak Hurst Cycles signaling we're in the right time frame for a swing high.
I'm predicting next major swing low on Bitcoin in late April 2019 , based on long term Hurst cycles analysis. If we fail to break and hold above the long term trend soon, it can easily continue back down for the next two months.
In my opinion - " The top is in soon " for the next few months.
Beyond the technical analysis. BCHUSDWell, I'm just say all of your indicators have the probability of fail.
And now. It's the critical time of both the momentum and volume indicator to both fail.
And your chart, your lines drawn by your hand. They all fail.
The trendline you drawn is usually invalid. So it's fail. Through it may useful.
But now. Anything seems not useful.
It's the hardest situation for normal indicator.
Then I want to do the cycle analysis. And result is I failed too.
It just a big mess. I just run into the mess and can't find the cycles.
The cycles you see in this chart is analyzed by me. Manually.
Then in my manually analysis. I failed many times at least 3-4 times.
It just looks weird. I never see this head-shoulder pattern in TRUE CYCLE.
The cycle seems not change. But my thought of this pattern is never same as before.
Because when the sharp decline break the L-shoulder. WTF it is. It just in mid-channel time.
It's a little hard to believe that.
I believe it's that time. If I'm not analysis it wrong.
Time analyis is so hard. I decide to do this on BCH and not other coins.
WHY? Well. Because it's just looks hard.
You guys should choose the easy mode and not do hard mode on the realm of this industry.
Like I already said. The mid-channel pause is come. And now It's gone. The pause will end and price movement should continue.
It's will gone. Within hours. But will it have another rally?
The answer is ofcourse. On this down trend after the head-shoulder pattern.
Didn't price always rally on time? It just their strength is small.
The fld is here. you can use it to help you to decide what situation is.
But now I believe you guys do long position must be cornered. You will lost money.
If my analyze is not wrong. Trend will resume soon.
So whatever your position is. Just keep safe. The safe is no.1 thing in Gann rules too.
And another one is never open position without definite indicator.
Which is you should only trade in very high safe and high profit area.
It's hard both to newbie and old trader.
