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Hype

"Real value" of BTC, thoughtsAs a result of the ongoing fall of BTC, there is a lot of talks going on about the "real value" of BTC and the magnitude of the hype. Here is my take on it: - before the last, normal-weekly correction (2015-01-25) highest-OBV was 2,2m. At this OBV-level the close-prices were 920USD (2013-11-25) and 2349USD (2017-05-29). - let's accept 2017-05-29 close price as a "real price": 2349 USD (at OBV 2.2m) - since 2017-06-05, OBV has grown roughly ~30%. -so superroughly 2349*1,3 = 3054. (which - by the way - corresponds quite well with middle level of Keltner 100, 1.618.) -so i n my mind BTC is ~4 times overhyped and running without any weekly correction since 2015-01-02 (!). Weakness of this line of thought: - OBV-price relation is more complex - Daily-based corrections might do for correction in such a speedy market - BTC-beleivers says that the promise is a new financial system and the value isn't the market value. Personally: - I think it is overhyped, but will not fall as of now - The continuous hard-forks feels spooky to me (26 by now?) - Winklevoss-twins as a face of bitcoin do not correspond in me with Satoshi's or Szabo's freedom-loving geniusness, dignity and goodwill. - The way in which Winklevoss-twins-billionaires boosting the hype feels somewhat irresponsible to me (cryptos are risky, and if down the line BTC falls big, small Jennifers/Joes will lose, not them) -- they feel like "a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing." This is NOT a trading advice, but comments/criticism welcome!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bricoleurs
4
Time to turn on the POWER!With the current state of cryptoland, this coin should get a decent pump! Fundamentally solid, and with a sligly undervalued marketcap I believe. Fundamental So yesterday we got some good news from PowerLedger. Thai-Government backed BCPG agreement! That's substansial and should increase the hype. It's a new coin, and there is a lot of speculation money flying around now. That's what I think could equal increasing demand for the short term. POWR is a little difficult to fundamentally judge. It's very techie. However, I like the team and it definetly looks like they are doing a lot of work and have some important connections. That's enough for me to invest for the short-mid term. I see a good risk/reward ratio. But I would recommend small percentage of portfolio. Technical You may know that I don't like to draw on BTC parings. If there is no USD pair I tend to go much more on the fundamentals. However, I have added on some fib levels to where I think we could face some resistance. And the pitchfork is always nice to follow for support levels. My target for this trade is around 16900 SAT. I have added it to my Portfolio-Spreadsheet . Where you can follow what changes I make in my hodlings.
Long
by Kryptokelly
65
Possible tops of this BTC cycleThis one is pretty self-explanatory. I drew the logarithmic trend channel, and drew a repeat of the 2013 cycle. If such a thing were to occur, the new target estimates are 50K for the first top, end of december/ beginning of january. Then bouncing between 10K and 30K for a few months like in summer 2013. Then the end of this hype cycle at 100-200K. Then a pretty brutal bearmarket like in 2014 and 2015. Then the start of the next hype cycle after the halving 2020.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
17
Let them chinese make us some cash :)Last week I posted #hypeoftheweekend with Bitcoin Gold . That idea gave me a nice profit off almost 100%. This weekend my eyes are on NEO and China! I expect the same result :) Buying at 37 USD, selling at 88USD for a profit of 138%. Fundamental On 21.Nov the " Blockchains in Fintech " event goes off and we have NEO founder Da Hongfei as top speaker. NEO is also trying to hype up the event beforehand: twitter.com If this will be a repeat of the SWELL conference with Ripple, time will telll, but I feel that risk/reward is good enough to enter this trade. The chinese goverments eyes is on crypto, and that may turn into incredible news for NEO. The chinese are still very important in cryptocurrency, and NEO should be in your portfolio for the long term. Technical I expect to hit the 1.618 fib and complete an Elliot Wave within the channel in my pitchfork, depending on what we get out of the conference obviously. When you trade you need to be open to everything can happen, and adjust your mindset when things do happen. But at this moment I believe what I have drawn will unfold. Time will show, and I'll try to update this along the way. If this trade goes the wrong way, I am looking at that trendline. If it breaks, I am getting out. Numbers Buy: 37USD First Sell: 88USD Second Sell: 139USD Stop Loss: Below Trendline
NLong
by Kryptokelly
17
Autumn Hype CycleFirst of all, I'm not a pro trader, I only got into trading cryptocurrencies earlier this summer in the last hype cycle, this is purely for personal speculative purposes and out-loud observations so I can be proven wrong in the future. It's funny how this current hype cycle began, Altcoin traders started dumping their coins into BTC about a month ago to get in on this upcoming fork, and because so many people made a move at the same time around middle of October, it jumped from $4200-5700 in a matter of 10 days. What happened is that triggered a price event which caught headlines, and the media has been having a field day with it. That new wave of Bitcoin in the media is bringing on a whole new wave of crypto newbies (just like me a few months ago), with Coinbase signing up 100K new users in one day, who are buying at these crazy volatile levels. People heard a fork is coming, though nobody can explain what a fork actually is, it's just free money, isn't it? And so confusion is accepted as the norm, and people just keep buying on headlines that one Bitcoin will eventually be worth a billion dollars. I actually read that in a headline, one billion dollars for a Bitcoin, some people believe that. In the last few weeks, looking at the volume spikes, you can see some big whales in the pool who are making an absolute killing on these price pumps, and those whales are smart cookies. The average whale could own 1,000-100,000x more than the average Bitcoin owner, and they're often playing with other people's money, who need to see a hard return in fiat. A lot of this new money is not people who 'believe' in Bitcoin as the future of currency necessarily, though they are smart enough to see a hype cycle and know how to extract massive profits from uneducated first time buyers. With Segwit 2x futures peaking at only 33% of the price of Bitcoin, and this last bull run seeing an over 100% gain, just do the math, a whole lot of people are going to loose a lot of money after this fork happens, and the whale traders are going to have very very nice fourth quarter reports to take home for Christmas. Honestly, look around, people are primarily gaming Bitcoin to make money right now, which is an important network effect for the overall ecology, though in my opinion is not the original spirit of the technology. The culture is being over-run by speculators who fill up blocks with quick turn-around trades. With Segwit 2x fork lacking re with billions in newbie money coming in, I can see this being a recipe for disaster. No way around it, a whole lot of people are going to loose a whole lot of money on Bitcoin in the coming weeks. The loss will be in the magnitude of tens of billions of dollars. Money will be lost through replay attacks, people sending funds to the wrong networks, and a general price collapse. The FOMO traders are in it for a quick buck, they're not in it for the long game, so when it crashes again, human nature is to buy high and sell low. Every trader knows that the opposite thinking is the only way to make money, so I can see a pretty harsh hangover coming up right after this fork. That said, we're in crazy new territory here, and I'm glad we're finally getting an alternative to fiat, although I would like to see crypto adopted more widely as an actual payment method where goods and services are being exchanged, rather than just the price speculated on. These hype cycles don't exactly facilitate my ideal use case for cryptos. Those are my thoughts on Bitcoin today, and one thing I've learned is that Bitcoin doesn't care at all what I think, it's a wild beast that has it's own way with things. Happy trading guys, I'm selling a portion of my Bitcoin now for Litecoin and other alts with hopes of advancing my position in BTC after this fork. #hypocrite #famouslastwords #thisisnotinvestmentadvice #hodlordie
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ansonphong
3
Delusional Lisk Moon Dreams Lisk might face some resistance with this potential rising wedge so depending on your risk tolerance you could try trading it. I doubt I will try to trade any highs because I am completely consumed by moon dreams. I am all or nothing going to take profit at 0.003 and then 0.0045. I got fucking rekt on cripple with a margin long and in true market autism, traders bought the rumor and sold the news, leaving delusional margin longed moon autists like me, bag holding just in time for xrp to dump harder than someone with chronic diarrhea, liquidating us all. I didn't practice any risk management, didn't use a stop loss and was absolutely shrouded by moon dreams and hype; the end result being fucking rekt RIP. I then closed at the bottom and now thats all said and done ripple might moon for I have bought high and sold low and the whales have successfully taken my btc but i am fucking done with that coin, on to alternative moon dreams now. So after that background information we can conclude that I am chasing profits but this time trying a more long term buy and hold strategy for these meme coins. As far as I know you cant margin trade lsk like you can bts or ltc which might be a blessing in disguise for me as I am prone to full margin long induced REKT and then venting my frustrations at the expense of everyone in the trading view cryptocurrencies chat. I am full margin long with bts and ltc and its only my delusional moon dreams keeping me from getting rekt whereas with lisk I cant margin long so I can just HODL indefinitely until it reaches ath at least which I would say has a good chance of occurring because the SDK and rebranding are coming out supposedly in q4. Also lsk is very well funded, has a HQ in the business district of Berlin and is one of the most transparent alt coins ive seen in crypto. I can only see lisk dumping to the lower green lines if LSK is hit with very bad news either before or after SDK. If that should happen depending on the news and the state of crypto and BTC, I would most likely sell my rusty shit car and buy lisk depending on how bts and ltc care going . LTC BTS LSK are my current longs and now I am now 100% in alts. Hopefully I can make back my life savings and get out of REKT status. Good luck and do your own due diligence. Dont trust my trades because im a shit trader. I wonder if I lose everything by next year and am back working for minimum wage.
Long
by captrade
5
ETHBTC Long termDisclaimer: I am a bitcoin maximalist so i may be biased. Also, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Etc. Anyway. At first glance the blue breakout looks solid since the candle on breakout has alot of volume. However a candle with alot of volume can also signal that buyers/bulls are getting exhausted. The price behaved somewhat similar back in may 2016, followed by a big red candle. The important thing here is to zoom in on smaller time frames to see if a top of sorts is forming. I may update this idea later with such a chart. End of the day if ETH experiences a similar glut marked with the pink channel, it will be interested to see where it finds a bottom. a new low versus the previous glut would be pretty bad. Im following this until end of summer. Have a nice day.
by UnknownUnicorn373805
SNAP: Dont Follow the HypeYou dont have to be a genius to know there are better places to put your money. Investing in SNAP without any knowledge is simply gambling. We have the casino for that. Technical already pointing to the downside and the first move up was from the hype around SNAP. But looking at how profitable SNAP is, it isnt. A company can be good, but that doesn't mean the stock will be good. This is a simple 5 wave structure for the stock based on the IPO of $17 being future support. The support will bring price up to around $24, previous support now new resistance. From there we might see price go a little higher to attract late buyers. Then we will see this stock falls to new low.
NYSE:SNAPShort
by AbdorhmanThi
3