Probably Nothing :DDon't worry about this, its probably just a mistake or something, no way this will keep happening.
Hyperbitcoinization
Mega Long BTC S Curve (update)I do believe that this is THE cycle.
I believe the 2017 run was a runt for a couple reasons, including the S curve adoption theory, ICO craze, & hard fork drama.
After this cycle I believe the percentage gains will decrease as adoption reaches mainstream levels and volatility settles down.
It will still be a goldrush as the whole world races to stack sats all the way up to $10M Bitcoin and beyond.
It will be very interesting to see the changes in the world over the next ten years because of this technology.
Bitcoin IS world war 3. It's already happening. Hyperbitcoinization.
Mega Long BTC S Curve S Curve bitcoin adoption.
Demand doesn't have to grow anymore for price to continue exponential growth.
Supply is diminishing at current demand.
It's not unlikely that 2017 was a stunted cycle in the early phase of an S curve adoption cycle of this nascent technology.
In this chart I am predicting a roughly $100 Trillion market cap by 2030. I believe with diminishing supply and increasing demand it would only take a small fraction of $100T to bring BTC to those valuations. I believe that less than $10T invested into Bitcoin can pump the market cap to those valuations. I do believe that can and will happen in less than 10 years. I do believe that we still have larger percentage increases ahead of us than we saw in the last cycle.
The emerging Bitcoin economy will foster a new type of banking industry with free market interest rates. At a certain point in hyperbitcoinization people will realize they no longer need or want to sell their bitcoin for material items they want/need. With free market, sound money, over-collateralized banking, Bitcoin hodlers will be able to earn 10-25% interest on their Bitcoin. People will no longer need to rampantly speculate on risky stocks with astronomical PE ratios, when they can loan their own Bitcoin out at a "PE Ratio" of 4-10 with negligible risk. Conversely if the hodler is looking for a loan, they will be able to use their Bitcoin as collateral and receive a fiat loan to purchase a home/vehicle/etc while keeping their Bitcoin.
Imagine the supply/demand dynamics when virtually nobody is willing to sell their Bitcoin but literally everybody wants it.
Hopefully at that point we will have forgotten about "unit bias", or in other words preferring to own an arbitrary "whole coin" rather than preferring to own something more valuable. We will be able to look at even a million dollar bitcoin as a means of safely storing our value, even if it's only a few hundred or a few thousand dollars of value that we are looking to store in the form of a few thousand satoshis.
While literally everyone will benefit from this sound money system, those who buy Bitcoin earliest will reap the most benefit.
Market is is possibly preparing a path to hyperbitcoinizationTarget of hyperbitcoinization of society : decade(s)
-Turning on your new purchased computer, the first things you will see after registering to Windows 36 is the live value of Btc, near the Amazon Logo
-Waking up in the morning to check how many Sats your smartphone mined during the night
-Seeing every big company crypto coin gravitating around Btc, beeing the standard world reference of other cryptos value
-Almost never having cash on you, paying 90% of the time with your phone
-"Neutral political" and minable alt coins like Litecoin are very high valued against the Usd
-Seeing 35 out of the 40 persons around you at restaurant spending almost all their dinner time staring at their phone
-You chose to have a part of your salary to be paid in Cryptocurrencies (or not)
-Everyone's cryptocurrencies balance is recorded in a blockchain via Banks managing cryptocurrencies, which greatly prevents from beeing hacked
-4 Trillionaires are alive and Governments are scared of their personnal armed guards
-Solstice Plasma company is the first startup preparing a pattent to give each unique full Bitcoin (100M unified Sats) a different visual aspect in a form of physical non toxic plasma, which makes each Bitcoin even more unique
A little bit of Utopia can be fun, but hyperbitcoinization is actually possible to happen.
If Bitcoin literally bottomed at 3200$, the next peak value against the Usd is probably going to be very surprising.
There is still the possibility to revisit the low 6k area if Bitcoin finally retraces here ( i mean a true retracement)
Odds of Bitcoin going below the 3200$ area : 10-20% (it's Bitcoin).
Take care
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: Adjusting prices for inflationInflation is a measure of a currencies devaluation over time. It is determined by the consumer price index (CPI) which itself is a record of the cost of a standardised basket of goods over time. CPI figures are recorded monthly by governments. Here I use the CPI of the USA.
Economists call a price which has been adjusted for inflation the real price . To adjust the price P the formula is simple:
P_adjusted = CPI_today / CPI_date * Price_date
What this means is that the adjusted-for-inflation price (P_adjusted) for, say, Dec 2014 is equal to the CPI value today (CPI_today) divided by the CPI for Dec 2014 (CPI_date) * the price for Dec 2014 (P_date). Do this for every month in your set.
You can see that for Bitcoin this adjustment makes very little difference to the price, because Bitcoin is very young. But if you do this for say gold you can really see how inflation affects value over time.
In fact when we adjust for inflation, the 2012 bubble was in fact less dramatic than the 1980 bubble - no wonder, that was the peak of 1970s hyperinflation. Gold was in demand, yet inflation continued to grow steadily since then, meaning today's dollar is worth less than even a 1970s dollar.
Going back to Bitcoin, you can move the crosshairs on the main chart and compare prices for a given date. Check the Dec ATH for instance. The price difference will give you an idea of how much the dollar has been devaluing since then. The following chart shows that using July 15 2018 (today) as the reference date, the dollar has lost 14% of its value in real terms since 2010 when Bitcoin trading started.
HYPERBITCOINIZATION US stocks teetering on the edge...The chart shows the sum of the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P markets normalised to the January 2018 high. The US stock markets make up over 50 % of world stock market cap.
The fractal comes from gold 2006 to 2008. Fit was really good until 20 June. Now stocks fallen below an important support level (dotted line) reducing the likelihood of immediate recovery. Failure to retake that level now increases the likelihood of a stock market crash in Q3 2018.
Here is the entire channel. If a breakout isn't forthcoming, a correction will be incoming that could easily lead to a complete stock collapse given the hype of the last few years, the margin debt and the possible Trade War (Donald long Bitcoin)
HYPERBITCOINIZATION: dollar purchasing power down 94% since 1914Purchasing power ( PP -25.00% ) is a measure of strength of a currency. It represents a quantity of goods & services that can be bought by a unit of currency. Since 1914 the purchasing power of the US dollar -0.89% is down 96 %.
The calculation is simple. We take the consumer price index ( CPI 0.24% ) for the USA and divide every value by the value for our base year (1914), then multiply by 100 to get a percentage:
PP -25.00% = CPI_i / CPI_base * 100
The CPI 0.24% is itself a measure of economic strength and its rate of change forms the basis of inflation . From Wikipedia: "The CPI 0.24% is a statistical estimate constructed using the prices of a sample of representative items whose prices are collected periodically."
Since the introduction of a de facto system of free floating fiat currencies in the early 70s, the decline has been slow but persistent 3.66% . It looks very much like an asymptotic decay, where the value will go to zero over an infinite 2.39% amount of time. Inflation may effect the rate of decline, but it seems that the natural process in this case is decline.
