Get started

Hyperinflation

$164,000 Bitcoin this month? Long term chart...I need some help from the community for a sanity on these charts. The OBV, on balance volume, is 100% long term bull on Bitcoin. HODLers are proven right, over and over again. Buy it, stick it in cold storage and ignore it. It's insurance against blatant fraud where they cook the books at the highest levels. So assuming these trends lines are sane, if the bull starts this month we could shoot up to $170K range within weeks with a strong green monthly candle. Bitcoin style!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
3
Hyperinflation; How to train the dragonDisclaimer This isn't financial advice, this isn't even really on bitcoin. I wrote this for Twitter, and I figured it might be a solid read for those here interested in hyperinflation, and perhaps the narrative surrounding Bitcoin as the hedge against it. Personally, I view a cure for cancer as the ultimate hedge against hyperinflation ( AMEX:CVM ), but I also hold and support GameStop , and very small amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum . Thesis on Taming Hyperinflation Hyperinflation is the dramatic increase of dollars in the active money market, such that the price of goods and services increase in relation. Hyperinflation is caused by a dramatic increase of dollars into the active money market. Hyperinflation didn't start in 2020 when the money printers went to 11, it started post World War 2 when the United States of America began its quest to become the de facto currency for global trade. The only way to force the world to use Dollars, is if it is forced into their hands (in one way or another). USA has maintained a dollar printing ethos for 70+ years, and now it is all coming home. Every country's treasury was forced to hold massive amounts of US Dollars in order to give it's own currency value, and to actually perform global trade. Now countries don't need all those Dollars, because USA has lost it's role as the de facto center of global trading. This isn't just Trump's moronic economic policies that isolated itself and pushed away every other country. This isn't just the constant rotating coups on third world countries ranging from Latin America to the Middle East, and even into Asia. This isn't just the constant refusal by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to embrace evolution of finance mechanics and create a real answer to Bitcoin. This isn't just the fact that USA has allowed the breeding of destructive and evil financial institutions that have caused untold economic devastation across the world. This is just what was always going to happen. Barring USA completely uniting the globe under one banner and one currency, there was always going to come a time when globalization had come full circle and other countries would learn how to live without America's iron grip. Hyperinflation was always going to come. With that said, hyperinflation isn't something new and it isn't something bad. With every country the US step foot in, they caused massive amounts of hyperinflation as they brought an extreme amount of dollars into a small area (usually the country capital or workforce center, think Nike shoe factories), with a slow rate of diffusion. This caused a sharp increase in the price of goods and services as there was more wealth in the active money/fluid market, which in turn hurt those who were not in this newly-wealthed population. While countries like China still struggle with this issue, this author wishes to point inwards toward the USA. This author comes from the dirty south, the kinds of places where Target moving in is a really big deal. USA has been undergoing hyperinflation since it's inception. The very concept of a spread out economic system that is improperly balanced towards centers of wealth means that there will always be those with, and those very much so without. Thus, the goods and services are far too expensive for their own wealth, but not for the greater fluid money pool. This author can go into the many reasons why this started, and why it continues and will continue until Universal Basic Income becomes more prominent as the main income source for the population, but that isn't the point of this text. The point is this, hyperinflation is coming, but it has also been here. Hyperinflation drives dramatic development, dude. A new Iphone $729.00 US Dollars. If that doesn't cause a double-take, then the reader has fallen on the right side of hyperinflation. This concept is that simple. If a source argues otherwise, than they too have fallen on the right side of hyperinflation. Minimum wage in America is $7.25 per hour, and hasn't increased since 2009 (from $6.55). With a cumulative inflation rate of 26.64% since than (with that not accounting for the dramatic inflation periods already happening this year), minimum wage equates to $5.72 USD now, or $11,897.6 per year working 40 hours a week, with no vacation days for the entire year. Hyperinflation has allowed the extreme generation of wealth at the top with an increase in goods and services that suffocate the poor and unlucky. This in turn drives development of luxury goods, such that handheld supercomputers capable of accessing an information network existing all around us in the form of energy, can only cost $729.00 USD. Or does it? Rather or does it have to? This author isn't going to make that argument here either, but let the reader reason it out for one's own self. Hyperinflation comes from a number of sources, depending on the route of the money. In this case, US dollars are coming from the Federal Reserve into the major banks using it in equities via themselves or their hedge funds; USD is coming from other countries reserves in the form of transferring into other global currencies, and Bitcoin. In turn, these other global currencies gain value, including Bitcoin, thus reducing the relative value of the US dollar and the goods and services it can buy. The truth is that the checks the government sent throughout COVID did rush along hyperinflation, possibly accelerating the collapse of the global banks and the US equities market. However, this only rushed it along in a positive manner. Money makes more money. An income of $100k USD is going to become much more than just double that of an income of $50k USD. Basic costs of life, unavoidable, take a larger percent of the lower income, thus leaving less to invest. However, not everyone spends income equally. This author's hypothesis is that because so much of the population is used to living on the very basic level of comfort and income, this group was able to use their checks to their fullest advantage. Sure, $100k USD could allow more investments, but if the individual wants to buy cars more than stocks, $100k USD only goes so far. This population drove a stake right through the heart of the vampire sucking wealth out of the global economy through the equities market, and now there is going to be an even larger wave of wealth driving hyperinflation. This author believes that this will be the greatest wave of hyperinflation (yes, a MOASS, but I feel dirty saying it), and thus should be the wave ridden by all. But truthfully, this author believes that the equities market is the safest place to ride out inflation, period. (This author also believes that cryptocurrencies belong in the same group, but there are more barriers to investing in cryptocurrency - such as fake altcoins). Equities were meant to be driven by investment, and a return on that investment. Companies could go directly to investors with a business plan, and sell a portion of themselves to fund their growth (i.e. take on debt). In turn, investors holding a share of that company would get a turn of the profits. These are dividends. If the cost of goods and services increases, the profits increase, the dividends increase. The relative value of the company increases as their profits increase. Equities are a hedge against inflation, but only if the equities market itself is healthy, free from malicious actors. This author has gone at length about these entities, and in some ways how this could be fixed, but that is not the point. The meme phrase "stonks only go up", isn't some sort of joke. It is the very purpose of the equities market to only increase as the relative wealth of the system increases. This is the very fundamental that has caused an increase in the stock market from day 1. In turn, every dip and rise in the rate of growth of the stock market matches the relative fluid money market of the system. Concisely speaking, as soon as the value of wealth was removed from any standard other than good will and faith, there was no longer a hindrance to the growth of this fluid money market. Furthermore, there were never any rules made to control it. At this point, there is no longer a force in existence that could control this process, other than the complete agreement of the participants of the system to accept it. Perhaps that is why Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says he is willing to keep supporting the US economy as long as it needs, knowing full well that the money may never stop flowing, or the system will collapse upon itself searching from a skeleton that never was. Truthfully, it is the very military might of the United States of America that keeps the global economy afloat, until a healthier alternative is agreed upon, as a global economy. Hyperinflation is coming, it has always been here, and the safest place to ride it is on the equities market in equities that are absolutely essential. Essential doesn't just mean life or death, but it can be in the shape of essential goods and services, or platforms for those. This author wishes the reader the best of luck, and the greatest hope is that we build a greater tomorrow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DoctorFaustus
BTC/USDT FUD vs NEWS = DIP... WHY? (ill explain)BINANCE:BTCUSDT MAJOR HAPPENINGS FOR THIS WEEK (so far) We received the head and shoulders that we thought will be the breakout to a bull cycle monthly back to bull season. We did not make it we dip instead ABCDE Elliot contraction wave. Then FUD came in how FBI tracked the wallets and crack the words (STUP1D AF guys i've been in the crypto since 2013 no one did ever crack a wallet *proof go to deep web scammers are there saying they can hack wallets and shit but won't and they will say they can't; you are just that naïve that time and I as well got scammed back then for it 2014) El Salvador - The #BitcoinLaw has been approved by a supermajority in the Salvadoran Congress. I AM EXPECTING THIS New FUD coming in; New personality will just emerge and say shit about Bitcoin. We will not or may not break 36K that's why I am still bearish. We will go back to 30K and why 30k is significant now? it is because it is where the market dump (zoom out check the Elon FUD) I am still looking at the 24K. Why? because of the hype pump from 2000-3000 price BTC to upwards. I cannot and will not be able to see things but these are all just Psyche. One TOOL you need and for you sure that will work = PATIENCE... I will never say on my charts to continue accumulating. But what I can only say is Continue being in the chart and continue playing with it. You will learn by going through this hard times 1 month 2 months of pain and sorrow to Anger and then you would know something is coming HOPE after a long long depression... I've been trading since 64K dump and failed to sell that point but sold at 56K when it traced back and never turn my back. you still won. SO WHAT WE ARE NOW HAVING IS... Weekends = Blood on the streets. Dagger Hours are very critical. Watch out those VOL that will not support the 4HR and down 1HR 30min and 15min CHECK also the MA make sure to have 20 50 150 200 never let 200 and 50 Cross = Death cross. TWITTER INTERESTING CHARTS - twitter.com = S2F Chart - Blackswan Momentum or pattern.
Short
by PuyatanHoldings
8
The biggest paradigm change in 200 years.I'm not teaching anything dramatic when I say that the western and therefore the world paradigm and global economy are being driven by what is going on in: The United States on the other side of the pond. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany on this side of the pond. The US are almost in a civil war, France abandoned the liberal left and are on the verge of revolution, and the United Kingdom has made major changes and the labor party is but a memory. Germany is on the wrong side of history once again XD > CNN published an article describing the dramatic rise in consumer prices Hyperinflation has started! Or, if not hyperinflation, at least strong inflation. In the US but also in Europe. A kg of apricots for 7 euros are you kidding me? Now that CNN is not dedicated full time on writing articles about Trump, they're actually covering other subjects. There are actually several articles on inflation: "Steel prices have tripled. Now Bank of America is sounding the alarm". Here they say the price will correct. Will it? edition.cnn.com Car prices are at all time high and rising. The cause is the price increase of superconductors. edition.cnn.com "Rising wood prices are making your toilet paper more expensive". Angry women about to fight over toilet paper again? edition.cnn.com Prices of all sorts of goods going up. edition.cnn.com Gaz prices at the pump also went up after terrorists attacked the American supply and demanded ransom money. Chicken prices had to go up, and will continue to, because industrials & farmers have a hard time attracting workers that are getting stimulus checks, and they have to pay them more. All sorts of goods prices are going up for all sorts of reasons. The stimulus checks are also causing workers to say "I won't go back to work for less than 100K a year". This is what Venezuela truck drivers said. The American retail and food service sector is on the verge of collapse. The industry is said to lack 3.4 million jobs - they cannot compete with "stimulus" checks - and a third of restaurant companies have been forced to close stores because of it, with an additional 44% saying they were considering closing. Well it is not even about to collapse it is collapsing live right now. The US are slowly starting to turn into a desert like Venezuela. No one wants to hold the dollar I can't even get a pullback. If you have not bought any commodities by now that's on you. I bet retail is 90% short as usual. People that explain to me "LawS d'OnT mAtTeR lOoK aT tHe ChArT aNd My inDiCatOr wOrkS 90% oF tHe TimE". Gosh they are so bad. > France ruling class has angered and lost the support of both the public and the armies, and the judges are ruling against the government During the coronavirus lockdown the globalist bourgeois liberal caste used this opportunity to pass all sorts of laws they wanted to pass for years, such as abortion up to 9 months, experimentation on human-animal hybrids. This night they just passed a law - after it was rejected once - for a vaccination passport. They already in the past 20 years have gone against the will of the majority, for example they forced some EU laws that more than 50% were against in a referendum, and they have outlawed capital punishment with to this day more than 60% of the population in favor of it. One must wonder, did all these laws they made regardless of the majority go up to their heads? So now they grew overconfident? The military, first retired and reserve troops, tens of thousands, and then thousands of active troops but anonymously, have written a letter to the government calling them traitors, cowards, sneaky perverts. They have warned of a civil war and urge the government to control the borders and do something about the violent hoods firing mortars and throwing molotov cocktails on police. The government has sued the military but judges has ruled against the ruling caste. The french public supports the military open letter to government at 58% - going from 36% for "the greens" to 86% for "the national rally". 49% of the french say the army SHOULD intervene without any orders from the government. 45% say a civil war is imminent. 74% say there is a type of "anti-racism" that is responsible for hatred between communities. 86% say the republic laws are not being applied in certain towns. Source (FR): harris-interactive.fr We are seeing prominent leftists and far right figures hand in hand, this has never been the case before. It makes sense, the left/right divide to conquer paradigm dates from the french revolution. Since this era is soon over, the left and right have no reason to hate each other and can work together. At least the time of the transition. The transition might or might not be quite violent. Probably not very violent. Might be a witch hunt of "woke" people, and mainstream is fed up of those, so public opinion would close their eyes if it did happen. The french public does not believe the media anymore, and what is hilarious is the media is smelling the change and have started changing their tone! They are abandoning ship! Sneaky little weasels. And the french yellow vests are back in Paris. They are not backing down. > The Queen of England made a speech laying out the goals for the Brexit transition, anti-cancel culture laws, and stronger borders France had its first revolution in 1789, the UK entered into the "parliamentary democracy" paradigm in 1832, with the magna carta dating from 1215 and the monarchy absolute power being abolished after the glorious revolution of 1688. Recently the cancel culture has been growing in the UK, but the public, supportive at first, now dislikes it. The Queen which has an approval rating around 90%, with 80-90% in support of maintaining the current monarchy system, made a speech listing about 30 laws the UK government will be working on including things like 5G but also: - "My Government will ensure that the public finances are returned to a sustainable path once the economic recovery is secure.". No demagogues kicking the can down the road here. - "Legislation will be introduced to ensure the integrity of elections, protect freedom of speech and restore the balance of power between the executive, legislature and the courts" - "My Government will introduce measures to increase the safety and security of its citizens." - "My Ministers will provide our gallant Armed Services with the biggest spending increase in thirty years" - "Measures will be brought forward to establish a fairer immigration system that strengthens the United Kingdom’s borders and deters criminals who facilitate dangerous and illegal journeys" www.gov.uk The british government started a way on cancel culture and "People who believe their freedom of speech has been impinged will also get the power to go to court to seek financial compensation": www.dailymail.co.uk The UK is moving away from socialism and becoming more friendly to businesses (as well as workers, everyone wins). So much for Brexit bears "this will be a catastrophe". Their demographic pyramid is one of the least bad in Europe too, and the period of the past year where the young sacrificed themselves for the old is coming to an end. They are friendly to businesses but have rejected the multinationals, globalism, cheap workers from Benin coming on crowded boats etc. And they have no intention of re-writing their history. Maybe France will follow a similar path? Frexit and parliamentary monarchy? The situation has parallels with the events of the Republic of Rome 2000 years ago, just before it turned into an Empire. In 45 BC 1 in 3 Romans were getting free bread. Farmers quit the countryside to go live in town get stimulus checks, because why bother working? Julius Caesar said enough is enough and halved the number of people on stimulus. 1 year later he was assassinated by traitors while allies Marcus Antonius and Augustus were far away, and it all degenerated into a civil war won by Julius Caesar allies, and the republic came to an end. The Empire starts in 27 BC. I won't start a history lesson, but it is interesting to look and compare. History repeats itself a lot. You can find the monthly grain prices in England in 1270-1955 here, as well as a few other prices of the past (Paris, Cologne): www.iisg.nl The wheat prices in France in the 18th century: archivesenligne.yonne.fr It is easier to find France & UK prices from 1750 than Venezuela or Zimbabwe prices from yesterday. The french Franc might come back. The EURUSD might see another gap of 200 points or more. What I am certain of is major changes are coming; inflation will continue; S&P, Copper, Grains short sellers are dense; and USDCAD longs can't be real.
TVC:DJILong
by MrRenev
7
Gold Builds Up As Hyperinflation Risk RiseInflation is the term that indicates rising prices for goods and services in an economy, while rapid and out of control rising of prices indicates Hyperinflation . While following the rapid increase in prices of commodities and metals such as Lumber LBS1! and Iron Ore TIO1! , it is accurate to say that global economy is being driven to Hyperinflation due to mismanagement of economical struggle caused by Covid-19 Pandemic. Gold offered and offers strong potential for gains in economic struggles and even after economic recovery occurs, given how undervalued at this time relative to high prices of commodities. Taking all these fundamentals into consideration combining with technical analysis, Gold price does not reflect its value. You may see my long position strategy below and on the chart, Entry Point: 1870.00 1st Target : 1950.00 2nd Target: 2075.00 3rd Target: 2180.00 Stop Loss : 1800.00 Thank you and stay tuned for more strategies! Please leave a like and comment what you think. Trade safe and have a nice Monday
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by gorkemaydogan
BTC loosing momentumBTC appears to be loosing momentum. I don't believe it is appropriate to say if a bear market is coming as there is simply not enough information to really make that determination. We could simple be at a brief pause before another uptrend. I personally believe that may only exasperate the impending correction and could easily drive a very steep bear market. While the market may easily go either way, now is a good time to reflect of trading strategies and possible consider a more defensive posture or rebalance multiple approaches. The chart shows the dramatic uptrend we have recently enjoyed, but, in reality, BTC is now significantly overvalued and its strength is wavering. We are due for a correction. I personally believe a corrected value in the $45,000ish area would be healthly for the market overall. My concern is that a correction may be just as extreme as the climb, which could see BTC drop to the $30,000ish area or lower. Hyperinflation will play a part in this correction and that really is unavoidable since most BTC is purchased with some form of fiat. How much of a role is debatedable, but renouwned investers like Dr. Michael Burry, believe there will be pain for those unprepared. As we move forward, now is the time to re-evaluate your risks, plan your budgets and make ready any steps for a worst case scenario. It is important to plan for a worst case scenario as common place, never risk more then you can afford to loose, and be willing to loose everything you risk. If you can't make that kind of a committment to your investing, then you will not be prepared, no matter which way the market goes in the stort term. Make no mistake, in the long term, a correction is coming.
FTX:BTCUSD
by RobertD7723
1
Retailers are now selling lumber to suppliersI've heard this from a social media, from someone involved in this business. When I checked lumber futures with the only brokers that grants me access, the min order is 0.5 lots (62.5K), the risk would be at least €5000, and I also saw a 40,000 wick yesterday, and a 10k wick the week before that. So it's just not going to happen. I'm way too poor. Other goods are going up even grains, I'm trying to hop on board, I've been trying since August 2020 getting stopped or missing it, I'll get my chance. Millions of migrants are entering the USA. We know that "no one should tell their kids they have to sleep outside", so what will demagogues do to house these millions? Print money? And when that fails because the supply is not here, blame greed and print more? Until there is so much "money" the migrants can make beds with bank notes? A bloomberg article about lumber going back the supply chain: Boy I hope they hedged their risk using CME futures. Just kidding they probably did not. Rekt. www.bloombergquint.com Step by step: US demagogues developped a cult to Rudolf Havenstein & Karl Marx for years building up to 2020, the few saying this were called permabears & conspiracy nuts. The US government started considering very soon following the example of Rudolf Havenstein in March, even before. Mid-March: The MZM starts rallying. 27 March 2020: A law to spend trillions is signed (who would have thought?). April 2020: By the end of the month already most of the money printing has been done, and it starts getting distributed. No big visible impact on prices yet, BUT they did bottom which may show well informed speculators took long positions, predicting they would go up up up up. Well no, we can look at the COT, for steel large speculators are shorting since the bottom, and for Corn: Closed shorts June-August then long from September on (still around the bottom) January 2021 longs topped no change Small speculators are short whole time Lumber it's rather flat... Soybean large speculators went long but started closing at the previous high "resistance" of 1000 (price is at 1500 now). Copper speculators went long following the trend and started closing at their target resistance of 3.5 (price at 4.5 almost now). Am I the only one seing how transparent they are? And how as a group there is no brain, no one saw the price rises coming, no one is expecting hyperinflation now. Or maybe not "hyper inflation" it won't be that bad... although all hopes in humans is lost so yes, Weimar hyperinflation and everyone will act like it's the most normal thing in the world. So much for "the big funds that know everything". I don't get it. 1 billion tons of notes get printed, production declined, spending increases, no one expects prices to go up? The "big boys" simply followed the trend once it was obvious and closed their longs at some made up "resistance". If they knew everything they'd all be trillionaires... Just typical nonsense sold by daytrading course educators that missed their calling as a demagogue. I didn't ride any of these trends myself but I don't have much money & I do not have access to all the tools they have. And well what can I say that's it. I am not trying to be insulting but when very silly people like Paul Krugman 🤡 when nothing happens in the following 5 minutes go "aha! nothing bad happened" it's beyond ridiculous. First the FED prints monopoly money, then the government takes those magic beans, distrubutes some to corporates & citizen & itself, it goes through the bureaucracy so already it took a month or 2, then they keep slowly distributing it over the month, and a couple of months after the FED printed the magic beans it starts being spent, as it gets spent over more months, the prices go up, the prices REACT they do not magically go up before. The price of everything bottomed when the FED printed money, and then the giant green candles appeared months later. They continue to print money at a slower rate but still high, even if the initial March-April 2020 printing is already in the commodity prices what is being printed every month is not. And the USA have plans to spend even more, maybe they double down and spend tens of trillions who knows. But even if they don't... After the "commodity prices going up" (and staying up) step, meaning the industrial costs go up, the industrial prices will go up (already has for example car makers made announcements because of superconductor prices increases), and finally the retail prices go up (in some cases already did - lumber planks, with a short chain). Mainstreet is still celebrating their free money, and to us the price increases is already something of the past, that happened long ago, mainstreet will be aware of it in months, maybe even years, it will feel like a lifetime ago to us, but to them it will be breaking news... No one has superman powers, they're dumb powers anyway, but it's possible to have another type of superpower. What can possibly beat knowing things before everyone else knows? Being always 2 steps ahead?
LLong
by MrRenev
1
Detail of US net imports, and why the situation is so dramaticThere is a clear picture here. The only (tiny) saving grace the US has is the "on site" stuff that cannot be delocalized, or hardly, all these basic industrial goods, as well as their agri mostly grains. The US imports 3 times as much consumer goods and auto parts as they export. It's cheaper to get chinese slaves to build goods in huge factories than pay these expensive unionised americans. The US , and even the whole west to a smaller extant, became totally reliant on foreign manufacturing. The US are heavily dependent on the rest of the world for their consumption of pharmaceuticals, auto parts, electronics in general, all sorts of household items like clothes and beds and microwaves and so on, cheap TV made in China etc. This became particularly visible during the covid crisis of 2020 where the US went "wait we need stuff, where is it?", sorry it's in India, I remember Morocco made big stacks of Hydroxychloroquine meanwhile the west could not get any, so then the whole west started a big conspiracy theory about every single drug that is cheap to make - therefore is made in foreign nations (revenues < minimum wages ==> impossible for entrepreneurs to produce locally), the propaganda branch of the west starting spreading messages on how drugs that billions (with a B) used for a century were very dangerous, no idea how anyone bought that. "Nearly 80% of drug ingredients used in the United States originate overseas, but FDA has struggled to oversee the manufacturers’ factories, raising red flags about safety. It caused drug shortages and suspension of safety protocols of the medicines manufactured overseas - the majority in China and India." Am I being a negative perma bear now? This was "speculation" before 2020 (not really guesswork, it's literally in the numbers but whatever nobel prize economists and keynisians are too dumb to understand). But now in 2021 it REALLY happened. We experienced it for real, it's not theory anymore. To be clear: The drug shortage during the covid pandemic was VERY SMALL. It's not 1% of what is about to hit. The west, mostly the US, and the least Germany, have no productive ability. When India & China stop sending humanitarian aid to them, they will turn into a desert like Venezuela, it's back to prehistory, they have the ability to build nothing at all. Elected officials are not the ones running the economy, entrepreneurs are, businessmen, and these guys conduct their business in Asia. There is no simple switch that they can turn on and off. Rebuilding the country if all goes right would normally take at least a good decade or two (maybe I'm too optimistic), but surely a while longer with the population being so old. If you are curious what consumer goods the US is a net exporter of, here is the list: To compete with Chinese cheap goods Germany (and a little bit France & the UK) came up with quality standards, the ISO 9000/9001 family which was first created by the US and the UK I know but Germany is what really went in that direction. So they retain some industrial capabilities (in particular an impressive car industry, France not doing too bad in that area too, Japan too and motorcycles also). Germany, France, Japan... They still build stuff, but what they build is more expensive so it has to be "high quality". But the US, being overly woke-liberal-capitalist-shorttermist completely gave up. They are more vulnerable than a baby in a pitbull fighting arena. Not sure what their plan is? Maybe take in millions of cheap migrants to use as workers once shtf? What will they do? Build a wall to keep them in? Lol that's not beyond the realm of possibilities. That's all grim but what about solutions? How to rebuild? Obstacles to rebuilding: You have to find capital (and as we know voters will demand a government with high taxes to "help them out", shooting themselves in the leg). Business owners & builders have to be willing to take risks when they are getting squeezed by social politicians & probably more regulations. Businessmen/women have to build factories, this does not happen by itself, need construction materials and so on. Entrepreneurs need to find skilled workers (americans have not worked in factories for 50 years) willing to work (so not on social aid). A country requires its entrepreneurs to not simply bail out because why bother? After decades of anti-nationalist propaganda. Good luck! Once the snowball of rebuilding gets going it's GG, it will keep growing, but when everything collapses it's just so hard to get the snowball initially going. Look at Venezuela and Argentina. Not only elites & go-getters left, but their "shoot myself in the foot" population is working hard to make sure business creation is next to impossible. And they've been in a mess for 10-20 years, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In modern days, high performance dynamic people will not "hold the bag" of a dying nation with a population hostile to business and in denial, lmao imagine arguing for months with morons in denial when you can just buy a plane ticket to a beach somewhere and GG. Almost no one has a nationalist sentiment anymore, so the people that build the economy will bail out of failing nations. And they only come back when a nation works hard to attract them (enough for it to be worth taking the risk of moving), with low taxes and low regulations and so on. It's really simple and straightforward... So to sum up, the US is doomed. Wasteland of nothing being done soon. And it's not worth fighting for, let them sort their mess. Solutions? East Europe, Australia, Caucasus countries, and others, let you in if you got money in the pocket (to invest in their country of course) and plans. Georgia Citizenship by Investment: Become a Turkish citizen within just six months with a real estate investment, bank deposit, or new business. Turkey with their empire history have it implanted in them to take people in. And actually they have the fastest growing economy of OECD countries. And much better demographics. Turkey has not the best eco freedom, but better than France. Georgia better than all. As the economies keep growing, and less of their entrepreneurs and workers leave + new ones come in, it can snowball and they can easily be in a better place than the US. All countries that went through troubles are fighting for wealth & job creators in this very high sedentary & risk aversion era. Go-getters still overvalue the west. Not much longer. Istanbul is 6 times as bif as NYC, and got twice the population, don't worry there is plenty to do. Remember, when Rome fell, the population of Istanbul went to the moon. Of course die hard atheists, LGBTS and so on are not welcome. Moving to a country, no matter which one, is a big decision not to be made overnight. Also if some NA states split from the rest it might get interesting, Texas in particular is trying to be more pro business. Big beautiful country average size (30m pop 700k km² bigger than France, plenty of space for new arrivals) with natural ressources etc. Their GDP grew 71% more than the US between 1997 and 2016 and manufacturing output 130% more. They're getting overrun with californians and illegals though (risk). Sorry Americans stuff does not magically fall off the sky after the welfare state makes an incantation, it has to be harvested from the ground and then manufactured. If no one builds anything in the country, and foreign countries that build stuff stop sending it for free, there won't be anything in the country. Enjoy no toilet paper, no computers, no phones, no wine, no car parts, no drugs, no televisions, no shoes, no shirts, no veggies, no nothing. All that will be left will be sugar, wheat, soybeans, corn, and meat which the US does produce in large quantities. In other words sodas, high fructose corn syrup, and burgers (wheat + meat). Yay! Ah an a final word, all this collapse is considering they do not repay their debt (both official federal debt and us dollars printed to import). If they have to export what they owe the hit will be even bigger (what little drugs they produce will have to be exported while seniors die being denied treatment), but I don't see this happening, or maybe very little of it.
TVC:DJI
by MrRenev
4
There is nothing to see hereThe prices of house construction materials in particular is tearing up the fabric of the universe, while the USA are taking in more migrants than ever, not sure how they plan to house them. Tents? Cages? Camps? The forest? In people's backyards? The prices of materials used for building cars & electronics is also going up, will it go back down? If these prices stay up then the end product prices will go up, some already have. And also the price of grains has gone up, which will end up having an effect on burgers (wheat => bread, soybeans => meat) and this, mainstreet will notice very rapidly (we all need to eat everyday), prob they demand more social programs, more stimulus checks... And so you get this cycle of euphoria where the public celebrates their "free" money. I don't get it. In real time strategy games the economy is real stuff down to earth: Gold, Wood, Oil, Iron, Food, Stone. You get all these ressources and that is your economy. It makes sense, it is not hard to understand. What matters in your economy is the real ressources that are needed for living and building, as well as selling them if you produce enough. And then you also have gold which purpose is to faciliate exchanges inside your nation, to trade with other nations, as well as hire soldiers which can then use it to buy the ressources they need (wood & stone to build a house). It's a tool. If we run out of wood, stone, or food IN A VIDEO GAME no one will argue that there is more hidden in a parallel universe that "the rich" can access via a magical portal. But in this declining civilization there is no "real stuff" in the real world, the public and decorated economists (it's like a reward for being stupid) think the economy is some abstract number and we can always increase the number with magical fiat. Chavez supporters were euphoric back then. Let me tell you they're not laughing now. Some numbers if this interests you: www.census.gov In particular: Exhibit 6- U.S. Trade in Goods by Principal End-Use Category Will the US follow New Zealand recent policies to try and magically fix the housing crisis? If you make it less lucrative to build a house, then plenty of houses will pop out of the ground and everyone will have a home, right? Don't get me wrong, landlords are technically parasites. Especially those that just got lucky and bought, or worse inherited, some property decades ago. But if you punish people for building houses... I don't know... Maybe that's not the right way to handle the issue? Just maybe? Actually the largest China import is Oil (1/4) from the Middle East & Russia, electronics from Japan SKR & Taïwan, also Germany is quite big, probably cars or something. Does not mean Africa is not the final sucker holding the bag as other countries spend those usd. oec.world Angola exports over 3 times what they import. Baggy. Lmao the Current Account Balances values. China is number 3 with 165 billion. Guess who are number 2 and 1? Japan nb 2 with 195 billion, over capitalized country, they just buy Bitcoins and start building casinos now even. And then you can easilly guess who is number 1. An industrial power. A machine. They make the best cars. 297. Meanwhile the US are in the whole, they are number all right, number 1 from the bottom that is, their account is at -466 billion. They are the brokest of broke, their production is down and about to get worse, prices go up, imports will slow (what fool will send them free stuff?), they are already in the whole and the depression/hyperinflation crisis has not even started, usually this situation is what is seen at the bottom. It's going to go from bad to worse. Mathematically it is worse than Greece, Greece also has a bit of a border crisis with Turkey and the refugees that want to go to Germany but that too is worse for the US. Michael Burry warned, and know what happened? The SEC paid him a visit and blamed him for "spreading panic". They are pressuring him into silence. Can you spell DENIAL? I'm giving this circus less than 10 years until "this was not real socialism".
COMEX:HG1!
by MrRenev
7
Bitcoin vs Money, Hyperinflation Hier zie je de DXY , de Velocity vs de Money Supply tegen de Bitcoin koers in een chart. Hyperinflatie indicator? Wanneer de omloop snelheid weer toeneemt? De blauwe lijn is de Velocity of Money de omloop, M2Ve. De rode lijn is de Money Stock Total Money Supply for United States. Goud gele chart. Bitcoin paarse chart. DXY bovenin. De Velocity daalt - omloop snelheid daalt maar het totaal aan geld neemt toe, Printer says Brrrr. Blauw tegen de rode lijn. De stimulus wordt niet gebruikt, onzekere tijden geld komt niet in omloop, Velocity drops. Zodra dit weer in omloop komt of er komt bijvoorbeeld nog meer helicopter geld - kan dit ineens enorm toenemen met Hyperinflatie tot gevolg. Mike Maloney:https://youtu.be/P4_1pwsm5LY?t=662 Alles in price in new price scale.
FRED:M2V
by TraderJet
1
The inflation tradePrices are going up in spite of the "safe haven" usd ponzi scheme going up (short term like 12 months ago?). It has even started going to what people notice & care about: consumer goods, end products. They can be in denial until they feel it at the store, because even a 5 year old would understand that. Fast foods have already increased their prices significantly. We will soon hear people say "if you told me 5 years ago I would have called you crazy", I know, they called me crazy for years now. "Take your meds". Let's see who gets last laugh. RE, stock, crypto prices have already gone up. More a bubble than inflation. Debatable. The ones responsible act dumb and are in denial. The only negative consequences directly noticeable were populism & antifa riots. The world has entered the second stage: increase in prices of usable commodities. And now it's going to start hurting. It has completely skyrocketed, so violently, the price doubled, but here it is not the sign of a great industry Food prices have also gotten very stupid very fast Other prices to look at are these: It is harder to find this data. Here on a british site we can see that their pharmaceutical prices were in a range since 2000 and broke out violently recently www.ons.gov.uk Often the sources for prices will be the FED... Asking a suspect if he is innocent... I don't run a big fund with a big research department with hundreds of analysts I can't check everything, but what I can do is look at China where lots of these goods come from, electronics etc. Last year chinese economists and officials were publicly showing their worry of their usd bags, they build their country around exporting and on the way accumulated a lot of IOU, some of their work has not really been paid for yet, they got some worthless pieces of paper that lose value over time, they don't mind as long as they are confident these worthless pieces of paper will become something useful one day, they understand the difference between some number and purchasing power unlike most of the population lmao that get excited at the word "1 million". First last year there was some huge news no one heard about that China build their own monetary zone in east asia, you know, what Gaddafi did just before France & their bodyguard the US decided the north african country needed some democracy. China has started lowering its USD exposure, without hiding it, anyone could make money on this trend, the trend has lasted so long even Warren Buffett is watching now I bet. www.siliconexpert.com The producer price index for all commodities will be at a new ath soon, it went way up during the inflation & growth period then stagnated at the top since the recession: fred.stlouisfed.org Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries: Net Inputs to Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing Industry, Mining and Oil and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing, Excluding Capital Investment, Labor, and Imports Big breakout! A big export of the US is refined Oil, prices of Oil go up AS well as machinery ===> Their output will go down, I'm not sure if democrats want to lower it to "save the planet" (making their situation worse) or just let it lower by itself (which they obviously know is happening) then take credit for it? fred.stlouisfed.org Net Inputs to Residential Construction, Goods ALL. TIME. HIGHS. Since 2020 it has mooned. This is very bad! They already have a crisis here. fred.stlouisfed.org Net Inputs to Commercial and Healthcare Structures, Goods Another all time high. More old obese people and ever higher costs to build hospitals & other infra fred.stlouisfed.org I'd rather make a video of this seriously, idk if tradingview has this yet. The services index was at 100 Jan 2015- Jan 2017, 110 Q2 2020, and now at 127. Started going VERTICAL. fred.stlouisfed.org I think we have seen enough. I will now attempt a drawing, german stonks Jan-July 1918: 1 gold mark = 1.25 Reichs mark 9 November 1918: Wilhelm II abdication, start of Weimar republic. Socialists quickly start being the ones in charge. Always ends well. December 1918: 1 gold mark = 2.00 Reichs mark December 1919: 1 gold mark = 9.61 Reichs mark December 1920: 1 gold mark = 14.53 Reichs mark ... November 1922: 1 gold mark = 1282 Reichs mark Late 1922: France socialists & Belgium occupy the Ruhr (west industrial region) to make Germany pay in goods (genius idea btw) November 1923: 1 gold mark = 115,000,000,000 Reichs mark The chart they never showed you A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 Marks at the end of 1922 cost 200,000,000,000 Marks by late 1923. This is when the public started really caring. It all develops over several years, it really started picking up in 1919. I do not know what bread prices were and what industrial goods prices were, it's a bit different here too. In the US case, where it has just began skyrocketing up, consumer goods follow a bit after "industrial" goods go up. It escalates over years, it's really not a sprint there is plenty of time to prepare. It's clearly not a race against the public that needs more time to understand, their understanding is not a function of time, but a function of when their shopping cart price goes up. We are very early. You can store toilet paper etc (for your own use don't be stupid don't try to profit from it by selling stuff at a discount when prices soar the peasants will come at you with torches, maybe, idk how their illogical emotional brains work) without the slightest competition as the herd isn't intelligent enough to figure this out, once they do though they'll all rambo like rhinoceroses. When it gets really bad it will accelerate like crazy like germany hyperinflation in 1923. Maybe China says enough is enough or idk whatever. Maybe industrials just cannot continue and all manufacturing stops. Like oil businesses chain failures a few years ago. And these industrials are mega overleveraged lol. Funny how during these terrible times in Germany the social-democrats had the majority, and now in the US who has the majority? It's always the same guys 😂 Maybe that's just how every society naturally evolves? Late stage democracy or something. Good times make weak men. Weak men create hard times. Checking these "Producer Price Index by Commodity: Inputs to Industries" is like having a crystal ball because the impact comes later and the unwashed plebes have no clue until it happens. Some potential investment choices, not an advisor, just throwing out a few ideas: > Stocking up on consumer goods now before prices go up is actually a smart investment decision, you will save money. > Experienced speculators can buy some far away long Oil contract, other commodities too even. Oil could be going 3 digits personal opinion. > Experienced traders just be focussed don't rest, LF commodity longs, LF usd short when the time is right, LF irrational prices, LF contango... > Noobs don't go learn to trade now and get slapped by increased volatility and having no idea what you're doing > Bond buyers just send me your money directly if you don't want it I'll make better use > House prices will surely go up but socialists probably will take their fair share and give your RE to some hobo so sucks > Don't show your wealth when things get really bad, but why would you waste money you could invest? > Wageslaves will get crushed in the medium term, for those that spend all they earn and have nothing to spare press f, don't over-rely on a salary > Might as well leave the west in the next 5 years > Credit default swaps on the federal government?
TVC:USOILLong
by MrRenev
2
DIXIE 50?!?(Check out my previous accurate calls on the dollar from the past year below these comments) Has anyone else noticed the massive bearish symmetrical triangle on the 3M DXY chart? Everyone believes the dollar will strengthen in the short term, but I think we have formed a head-and-shoulders pattern and are in for another significant leg lower! The 1.618 continuation on this decade-long bear market rally is almost exactly at 50 on the dot, and I believe we are heading there fast!
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
VIX to 0?!?In terms of long term allocation, I wouldn't touch equities with a ten-foot pole! That being said, with the amount of currency being created every second, all prices will continue to rise exponentially, and the proximity of financial assets to the source of this inflation (the Federal Reserve) will continue to favor their valuations! Would a uncontrolled rise in treasury yields lead to a sizeable correction in equities and a rising VIX? Absolutely. Is it likely that the Federal Reserve would intervene to an even greater extent than the 2008 and 2019 Global Financial Crises? Absolutely. Therefore, I believe the long term trend of volatility in all prices is much, much lower...
TVC:VIXShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
3
Calling Tops is Virtually Impossible, but Here Goes!After nearly a decade, I believe the outright manic outperformance of tech stocks over commodities came to an end this past week! Does this mean that the prices of shares in tech companies will fall or even crash? No. It simply means that commodities and the shares of commodity producing companies will outperform them over the coming years... The cost of hedging inflation is about to skyrocket, make sure you are positioned accordingly...
TVC:NDQShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1