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Hyperinflation

Bitcoin/Gold Ratio - Is BTC topped out in terms of Gold?Interestingly enough, the long term chart of Bitcoin/Gold - AKA how many gold oz 1 bitcoin buys you, seems to be following the issuance curve of bitcoin supply...which is going to have less and less deflation going forward, due to the principle of Bitcoin. Doesn't mean anything for the U.S dollar price of bitcoin really, just implies that gold will out perform Bitcoin in a hyper inflationary environment, contrary to what many BTC bulls believe. What do you guys think? I am open to all ideas. This could be wrong!
BNC:BLX
by diamond_in_the_rough
1
Accelerating Inflation is the Elephant in the Room Back in early October I posted a commodities chart. On that chart I shared my thesis that Gold's 6-year breakout in May would retest and commodities would follow on the next leg up. I later posted that "unofficial QE would add fuel into inflationary forces". With Gold breaking out of its healthy correction, inflation hitting 9-year highs, the Fed saying they will not raise rates until they see and significant and sustained increase in inflation and the fundamentals deteriorating, I see the potential for a huge surge in inflation in 2020 and 2021. Especially because its the trade that is most unhedged. Most investors are prepared for deflation - aka if stocks and real estate fall. Almost none are prepared for a rally in inflation, falling dollar, and surging commodities. Strong breakout in TIP with very strong volume. The TIP Bond ETF is a way to hedge yourself against rising inflation and as a way to visualize inflation sentiments in the market. Notice the 3 lows at support coincided with Gold's low in 2013, generational low in 2015, and then in late 2018 when the Fed was being very hawkish, talking about autopilot QT and 4 rate hikes in 2019. Additionally, the moving averages and volume are showing there's more room for growth. The more I look at the facts, rates of change, and the charts, the more I'm convinced the US dollar simply cannot maintain its current level. The Dollar has been flat at 96-97 in 2019, which is impressive given all that has happened. Fed promising to not raise rates until we see a significant and sustained rise in inflation. Federal debt is growing at an unsustainable rate. All-time high twin budget deficits. Additionally, the Fed did a massive U-turn and provided massive liquidity to the market in 2019 due to the 3 rate cuts and QE on emergency levels. Silent QE is growing faster than during official QE. The fiscal stimulus from record spending and tax cuts plus the massive monetary stimulus has helped push us to 9-year highs in rate of change for CPI inflation. Since Q4 2018, Gold has increased from 1180 to 1550 with a high correlation to the TIPS ETF and gold stocks have outperformed the S&P500. The inflation move has already started and few are seeing it, but most investors remain oblivious or unprepared for a significant and sustained increase in inflation. With the rate of change for inflation rising and the relevant fundamentals deteriorating and 2020 being an election year for Trump, this inflation or "reflation" trend that began in Q4 of 2018 looks to pick up speed in 2020. The Fed wants a cheaper dollar to satisfy the Repo market and Trump wants a cheaper dollar to "stimulate" the economy enough to get reelected. With these strong fundamental drivers and technical confirmations, look for the DXY to continue to build a downward trend as it heads to 93 and lower. Those that think central banks can do QE forever without creating inflation and devaluing the currency are wrong. Commodities have shown signs of life at times over the last few months - platinum, silver, copper, some agriculture. I just want to reiterate - with the fundamentals worsening and the rate of change for inflation increasing - in addition to a break out on the TIP chart, highly bullish breakouts in Gold, breakout in Feds balance sheet, and breakout in government spending- there's a good chance we can get big surges in inflation assets in 2020 and 2021. Things to watch out for: - Pay close attention to interest rates and the Fed. The better we can understand the Fed's intentions the better we can trade and invest accordingly. - The Fed has said they will not raise rates until they see significant and sustained inflation. Keep an eye on how fast inflation rises. If inflation surges and the Fed doesn't hike and potentially cuts, gold and commodities will fly. - The "market" needs debt expansion to keep itself sustained. Keeping rates flat and doing a certain amount of QE per month will eventually be insufficient to keep stocks and bonds propped up and rates suppressed. Over the next 6-12 months keep an eye on the Fed's operations, any changes or growth, and any liquidity crunches. The Fed may front-run any liquidity crunch by announcing an official QE program. This is bullish Gold. Watch what they do. If they are slow to act or become hawkish, they could deflate the bubble. - Watch the price action and trend shifts on the DXY.
AMEX:TIPLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
9
2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 8 (1.682 BTC)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Today was another very productive day. I spent about an hour talking with someone from Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram group, of which I am also a member, about the underlying fundamentals going on in Turkey that could be leading to the massive hyperwave the Lira is experiencing. He seemed convinced that it is all due to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and after our discussion I am strongly inclined to agree. “In 2012 an analyst cited by Ansa Mediterranean suggested that Qatar's involvement in the Syrian Civil War was based in part on its desire to build a pipeline to Turkey through Syria: The discovery in 2009 of a new gas field near Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and Syria opened new possibilities to bypass the Saudi Barrier and to secure a new source of income.” (1) The Lira broke out of phase 1 in 2013 and according to Tyler Jenks this signals a major economic shift (when a hyperwave follows). From my understanding Turkey was allied with Russia for their energy needs and in 2012 they went all in on a pipeline that would help them become more self-sustaining and less reliant on Russia. The United States and European Union were likely all to willing to help in order to cut into Russia’s economy and worldwide influence. Turkey housed Syrian refugees and made political alignments with the EU and United States that likely alienated them from Russia. That was okay though because in exchange for housing Syrian refugees they expected to become a member of the EU. “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” Now it seems like the EU is reneging on their end of the deal, for one reason or another. Turkey is threatening to kick out the Syrian refugees and it seems like the Turks could find themselves without any allies, without a pipeline and with refugees that they likley cannot afford to support for much longer. Meanwhile their currency is experiencing hyperinflation and it appears that it will only get worse. Now I have 15 minutes until pool league starts and hopefully that will leed to some lighter conversation! Open Positions Long: XBTM19 *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5% *1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven Price: $3,727 Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven. Leverage: 10X Exposure: $3,541 Margin: 0.957 BTC Unrealized PnL: +0.0369 BTC Realised PnL: -0.001 BTC Long: USDTRY Price: $5.55804 Projected Risk: 5.66% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.048 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.131 BTC Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge. Long: USDZAR *1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8% *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%) *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position. Price: $14.48 Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49 Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000) Margin: 0.0157 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.057 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0531 BTC Notes: Flat L MA leaves some discretion. Could choose to scale out 75% (holding onto 25% due to golden cross) or I could choose to only scale out 50%. I chose the latter due to being at horizontal support. The very bullish 200 MA gives me confidence in this position. I have set a stop for the rest of the position at $13.49. Long: USDHUF *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA made bullish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + P < Bearish M MA (30%) = 35% scaled out *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at $279.33 for remainder of position *1/8/19 SCALE OUT: Have been waiting for price to move in my favor so that I can decrease exposure due to mistake I made when entering. Price: $282.66 Projected Risk: Market stop set at $279.33 | Max calculated risk = 0.1632 BTC Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000) Margin: 0.042 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.039 BTC Realized PnL: -0.0866 BTC Notes: Made mistake of entering 0.8 lots ($80,000) instead of 0.08 lots ($8,000) and have been waiting / hoping for price to move in my favor so that I could remedy that mistake. Go a bounce today that allowed me to re evaluate my risk. By scaling out of 75% of the position I have limited my risk to 7.5% of my bankroll for this challenge and that is much more acceptable. Short: SPX500 *1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added *1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50% Price: $2,472.62 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17% Leverage: 100X Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276) Margin: 0.0586 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.2226 BTC Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC Notes: Like seeing the L MA hold as resistance and the doji that is resulting. Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge. Short: EURUSD *1/3/19 Scale out 25% due to close > Long MA *1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS at 1.1501 for remainder of position Price: 1.13387 Projected Risk (horizontal resistance): 1.4% Leverage: 100:1 Exposure: 0.24 lots ($24,000) Margin: 0.063 BTC Unrealized PnL: -0.066 BTC Realized PnL: -0.012 BTC Notes: Consensio is telling me to fully scale out. However we are currently at horizontal and trend resistance. Therefore I set a stop loss order slightly above resistance. That is only 0.3% away from my current price and the difference between exiting now and then would be nominal. However the difference of being able to hold onto my position and not capitalize on a big loss, in the event resistance holds, is very significant. Therefore I much prefer the risk:reward of a market stop loss at 1.1501 instead of exiting now at 1.1475. Open Orders Stop Market to long 0.82288 XBTH19 @ $4,037. Reason for entry is Consensio + that would be TL breakthrough. Also like how strong support is holding after the last pump. Stop Market to long ETHUSD @ $160.20. Reason for entry is Consensio being fully bullish and $160 being boundary line for c&h + ascending triangle Stop Market to short XAUUSD @ $1,274.89. Reason for entry is that would create a lower low and break down parabolic advance. Watchtower BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. ETHUSD: I am bullish until Constantinople Hard Fork. Buying the hype, and selling the news. Consensio is bullish but waiting for c&h to confirm + TL breakthrough. Waiting to enter due to price being up > 8% in last 24 hours combined with unfavorable r:r. Currently have stop order set to long at $160.2. *1/8/19: Price re entering cloud after kumo breakthrough + Kumo Twist. Watching for support at $125. LTCUSD: Close > TL + boundary line of c&h / ascending triangle. Testing top of cloud + bullish kumo twist. I could enter a stop entry now, but I prefer to wait for a close above the daily cloud. XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below. XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weely chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross. USDCAD: Really like seeing these hard / fast pullbacks when the enter a confluence of support. The Canadian Dollar is currently testing prior highs for horizontal support and the trendline waits right below. The L MA is very bullish and is also apart of this cluster of support. Being this far away from the S & M MA’s is a strong indication of short term oversold conditions. The only problem is that it could take a while before Consensio signals an entry. EURUSD: Formed h&s and then whipsawed everyone who tried to trade it. Now it appears to be forming a bear flag below major resistance. It is also support above the 200 week MA and trying to reverse that 5 year bear trend. Sources: en.wikipedia.org
Long
by Sawcruhteez
4
Weighted Basket of 5 Agri Commoditeis - Hyperinflation Coming*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on another website you will see that my analysis is 100% on point so far and even identifies exact msp level prior to breakout. I am expecting sustenance based commodity hyperinflation in the coming years as we enter a macroeconomic environment that the economics textbooks have never described. The money manager commitment data points to breakout, technicals show clear range suppression and evident accumulation pointing to impeding breakout. Global trade statistics are abysmal, statistics of subprime/consumer debt/corporate debt delinquencies are abysmal, PE ratios of leading equity markets are abysmal. I do not wish for this to happen because this will affect billions of people but this is most likely what is going to happen. Best of luck.
BLong
by RahulAndra
9
Rough Rice RR1! Longterm Call As we are on the brink of the next cyclical recession food security has become more of a concern than ever. One can see the inverse correlation that rice has exhibited over the last 15 years being an extremely inelastic good as it is the most consumed grain in the world. In the last 14 years the value of this commodity future has gone up over 250% versus the most widely used currency in the history of mankind, what does that say about the purchasing power of the dollar? The system will crack, inelastic sustenance commodities will experience hyperinflation. The last chart I made on Rice in early 2015 I claimed that it would bottom out at 9.2 and I was off by .1. Let's see how it goes, best of luck to all! And remember this market is relatively low volume and has extremely violent gaps so be careful with using leverage. Regards Rahul Andra
RLong
by RahulAndra