IBEX35 between 7200 and 8300 for monthsDue to the COVID crisis, the triangulation that has emerged since 2013 has broken down. Here I show my idea from 2 years ago whose channel has been respected until today. SEE ANOTHER FORMAT FOR THE IDEA
(UNTIL NOW) Right now a new scenario is being drawn that will be supported by the almost seen lows of COVID, the 6200 (fibo 1.0) . After banning the CNMV from short positions in stocks, the index has rebounded strongly, and has left the lows far. This together with the rebound on Wall Street of the American indices has made the IBEX rebound with great force. We have reached the first resistance, the 7100. This resistance may take a couple of weeks to overcome. Once this happens, this resistance will become support. So in the short term it is better to wait a couple of weeks to buy , and in the long term it has never been a better time.
Short term (this next week is BEARISH the index and could reach 6300)
(COMING SOON) This support, the 7100 (fibo 1.61) is going to be 1 year support at least and will touch it repeatedly. In summer, very possibly when presenting results in 2020, it will be played again. The maximum, the 8300 (fibo 2.61), before summer will be touched and it will be time to undo positions.
The possible correction of the American indices will not exceed the lows already seen, I hope that the SP500 will come as close to 2,500 as possible and will not let it touch the 2400 support. A lot of new money is coming in that had not been in the stock market before and this it affects that the short positions are more reluctant to enter and more when time runs against them and Spain is less than two weeks away from ending the confinement. They have already made quite an impact having dropped the index by 45% as seen in the graph from highs.
As a future forecast, the levels prior to COVID19 will not be recovered, at most they will be 33% of the maximum this year and 15% the year you come, and in many companies not 50%, especially the Spanish banks that They will not see those levels again, I think, until at least 2022. SANTANDER will reach 3 euros per share (4 maximum) and BBVA (4 Euros per share (5.5 maximum)
FULL ANALYSIS on soon
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IBEX 35 CFD
IBEX35 EXTREMELY BEARISH SCENARIODear Gamblers,
Here is IBEX35, major index in Spain. As you can see, things are getting uglier and uglier here.
Do not get caught in this enromous bullish momentum lately as you might get your ass kicked.
There's no strategy here as the neckline have not yet been broken, but it will, within the right time.
This strategy is no longer available if the index price reaches around 11500.
Happy trading,
Kind regards,
BeniGo
***I am not your financial advisor neither I intend to be, please do your own research before risking your money***
IBEX short 30 minute chartIBEX35 30 minute chart.
We see the red dotted traversing resistance line (once a support level) coming into play here. This level has disciplined the price (since 2012) whenever price has come into contact with it and has controlled price action steady through the last 8 years.
We go short as stochastic (not shown) is in overbought territory and we're hitting both the red dotted long-term resistance line and the regular resistance line of 9809.1. I also see what looks to be a bearish butterfly pattern formation. As always, wait for price action (to sell, in this case), and manage your risk.
Have a great Friday trading, and enjoy the weekend. Best wishes.
All comments welcome.
IBEX35 - long on support2.01 R/R long on the IBEX35 - 15 minute chart
We have a double bottom formed. Of course, if candle closes below, that is invalidated.
Stochastic in oversold territory, Ichimoku signal in red (waiting for the signal to rise).
T.P. 9561.4 approx
S.L. 9297.3 approx
(I say approx because of different brokers).
Best wishes trading this week!
All comments welcome.
Spanish Markets Fundamentals and Technicals Point HigherWith the supposed China "phase 1" deal being agreed upon...even though when no actual facts are really being presented and now the Americans are claiming it will be signed mid January...the trade has still been risk on.
Markets globally liked the news as some uncertainties dissipate and we are set for a Santa Clause rally.
I like what I see in the Spanish markets, the Ibex. I believe it generally is lagging behind some of the Asian markets, the American and European markets.
Remember folks, it is not about forward guidance. There is nowhere to go for yield anymore except stocks in this environment where central banks keep interest rates artificially suppressed.
As a fund manager, you cannot be in cash for a long period of time. Your clients pay you for yield. Bonds yield very low...way below the pension fun targets of 8% and they historically are heavy fixed income...not anymore. Real estate? Property taxes do bring yield down and most funds do not want to become REITs. Some say cryptos but that would only happen once it gets regulated. No fund manager would put clients money in cryptos knowing that exchanges do not have the money to pay you back if Bitcoin goes higher because legally, they do not need to since they are NOT regulated.
Stocks are the only place to go, and I think these markets that are lagging will be attracting money chasing yield.
The Ibex has been in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. We then began to base long term and even created a double bottom pattern. You can see that this range was composed of trends and a head and shoulders pattern we traded in the past.
Recently, we created a larger head and shoulders pattern which I find very interesting. With todays daily break, which is strong, the trade is triggered.
We are looking at the 10,000 for first tp.
IBEX35decision coming this quarter if ibex can close above 9381 we can look for further upside till 10.000-10.200-10600.
If we reject this coming week in this level we have support around 8810 but will make more sense take all the liquidity below the swimg lows marked with X.
decision para este trimestre en la bolsa española , si el ibex consigue cerrar arriba de 9381 podriamos mirar una rotura con potencial hasta los 10.000 - 10200 y 10600 como swimgtrade y zona de cojer profit.
en caso de rejeccionar esta semana en este nivel , tendriamos un soporte en 8800 pero seria mas tentadora el corto como swimgtrade e ir cojiendo toda la liquidity debajo de los swimg lows que he marcado con una X
att : m0byy
Spanish IBEX Head and ShouldersAlready outlined on how central banks will HAVE to keep stocks propped up. This is due to pensions and also the fact that central banks have forced money into stocks as yields were suppressed. A decade ago, you could retire with 1,000,000 and buy government bonds yielding 6-8% making 60,000-80,000 a year...enough to live off of in retirement. Now a days, you would make less than 30,000. In fact, bonds are now being used to trade rather than for yields!
Pensions funds are heavy in bonds and fixed income. They are not making the 8% required per year. In Canada, or pension funds have had to go into stocks and real estate. American social security is still 100% in fixed income...
Now, in some places, even real estate cannot be purchased for 1,000,000 meaning stocks are the only place to go for yield! There is nowhere else to go. Plus, stocks can be liquidated quickly which is important in this environment.
Expect central banks to prop stocks up because they have to in order to keep system propped up. Yes, a geopolitical situation can change this. Watch China for this. But you need to remember, central banks will keep stocks up. Cutting rates means you can only go to stocks for yield. Stimulus will also be reintroduced (very soon imo) but cannot be called QE. When stimulus comes back online there will be a CONFIDENCE CRISIS as people realize we are in 0 rates and fake/managed markets for life.
Check my other posts on these topics.
IBEX35 (IBC) ESPAÑA / SPAIN - DOS TRIANGULOS / TWO TRIANGLESDos triángulos simétricos (de largo y corto plazo) a punto de llegar al APEX. Posible ruptura al alza o a la baja. Vigilar.
Two simetric triangles (short and long term) on the verge of reaching the APEX. Possible breakout or breakdown. Watch out.
Ibex 35 abandoning bullish channel from 01/01/2019Trade war tensions made the markets tumble this Wednesday. Ibex 35, which is gaining volume (Cumulative Volume Indicator CVI was used) every week, has abandoned bullish channel started at the beginning of 2019 and continues its downward trend started back in May 2017. From a long term point of view, the end of this week will be critical to establish a correct position on it, either bullish if it gets back in the bullish channel or bearish, if it gets further away. One thing is for sure, from a short-term point of view the "Sell in May" prophecy period is also ending this week as May ends and the index could experience a bullish reversal the first days of June that won't last for long. All in all, long-term is bearish and short-term might come with some volatility surprises.