IBEX 35 CFD
IBEX35. Unfinished spanish businessI normally don´t watch local TV but fortunately saw the news last week while I was having a lunch. Spanish GDP is growing 3.2% since last year and I heard almost the same words that I heard in 2007: we are in front of Europe, the crisis is behind... and else, and else, and else...
Just wanted to have a look at Ibex35 index, to see whether I missed some wonder or if somebody gave Spain several hundred Billion to restore the economy.
UNfortunately, I haven´t missed anything and the 22% of unemployment talks for itself.
From technical point of view, I can see a long-time H&S pattern which is still pending to be developed and drop spanish economy to the levels of the late 90s. And, in real numbers, to much lower than that because in late 90s there were no abysmal sovereign debt.
Talking about the numbers, I expect IBEX35 to raise back to 11.000 area that is where the Hagopian line is placed. This is a psicological value for those who follow the spanish market. Once there, their voices claiming the crisis is over will be heard from every bar: a classical situation with 80%+ of the bulls. We all know what market does when such a thing happen...
I would short IBEX35 from 10800 approximately, targeting as low as 3000 ish by 2-3 years as much. And hope there will be a broker who would pay for such a big short.
IBEX 35 bullish momentum should continue towards 9000 level 8726 level support has a bullish candle confirming my bullish bias, the perfect buy would of been at the 856 level.
That bearish engulfing void candle at 12pm was just there to take out stops, the 4 hour block has been violated so this shows uncertainty because price has dropped on 8830 level and has also shown bullish action before. 1 hour time frame confirms my bullish bias.
OHLE SHORTOHL is going down baby!!
For those playing on the long side, a good entry point would be around the 38.2% retracement = 1.161% os wave blue 3
MAJOR WAVE III ABOUT TO START AT IBEX35 (spain index)Readjusting the elliot count as the movement evolves.
There is an accumulation process going on at ibex 35. Big sharks are accumulatting positions around 8700-8800 to start a major bullish rally. We will have a few bearish sessions ahead till the accumulation is done.
It will be a wave III rally: strong, fast movement and tons of volume.
In worst case scenario, everyone who had followed my last charts would have bought at a super succesfull low risk entry points: we're still getting ready for the major wave III to come.
P.D: you will notice to way of counting the waves: both of them told us the same: Major wave I is done and we should expect a dip before the next major wave starts.
BULLISH RALLY ABOUT TO START IN IBEX35A bullish rally is about to start on the spanish index. The famous ibex35 is in its way of a major wave III with a very clear continuing diagonal triangle at wave II.
Bullish positions till arount 9000-9150 and then get ready for the wave IV to come, probably on a sharp rally due to elliots wave alternation rule.
Maybe we there is a fair chance to be involved in an extended wave III so we coud potentially reach 10000-10500 pretty soon.
LONG POSITION ON SANTANDER S.A. - D1FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT KNOW SANTANDER S.A. IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT BANKS IN SPAIN. THE STOCK VALUE HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE MAY 2015 WHEN THE PRICE WAS WORTH 6.80 € A SHARE. NOW SANTADER IS 3.87 € A SHARE AFTER 1 YEAR AND 3 MONTHS APROX.
THIS FALL HAS STOPPED NOW. FIRST SIGN OF CHANGE OF DIRECTION WAS THE TRIPLE GROUND SUPPORT LEVEL BELOW. THE MARKET CHANGED DIRECTION AND IT HAS BEEN FORMING A SOLID TRIANGLE PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN FINALLY BROKEN.
I HAVE PUT A BUY LIMIT ORDER AS YOU CAN SEE LOOKING FOR THE RETESTING OF THE TRIANGLE. IF IT HAPPENS WE COULD MANAGE TO DO A VERY NICE ENTRY TOWARDS TO FURTHER RESISTANCE LEVELS FROM THE PAST YEAR AND 3 MONTHS AND LOOK FOR MANY BENEFITS!
TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK ON THIS!!
CARLOS
LONG POSITION ON IBEX 35 - SPANISH GOVERNMENT ABOUT TO FORMHERE WE HAVE THE IBEX 35 INDEX IN A VERY SIMILAR WAY TO SANTANDER BANK. ALSO CHECK MY LAST ANALISIS ON SANTANDER FOR A GOOD TRADE OPPORTUNITY.
IF THE GOVERNEMENT IS FINALLY FORMED BY POLITICAL PARTIES PP + CIUDADANOS THE BIG INVESTORS WILL COME BACK TO SPAIN AND INVEST THEIR MONEY AGAIN, THAT WILL MAKE THE IBEX 35 INDEX GO UNTIL THE CLOUDS.
THE OTHER IMPORTANT EVENT WILL BE THE FINAL DECISION ON BREXIT. IF UK STAYS IN EUROPE THE IBEX 35 AND THE IMPORTANT SPANISH BANKS WILL RAISE THEIR VALUE AT THE SAME TIME OF THE SPANISH INDEX.
MY CONCLUSION. I AM WAITING UNTIL THE HORIZONTAL LEVEL IS FINALLY BROKEN AND RETESTED AS YOU SEE IN MY ANALISIS. IF THAT HAPPENS THE BUY LIMIT ORDER WILL OPEN AND A LONG TRADE CAN BE MANAGED INTO A GREAT PROFIT UNTIL THE IBEX REACHES THE 10.000 REISITANCE AGAIN, THE POINT WHERE IT WAS BEFORE THE SPANISH ELECTIONS AND THE BREXIT.
LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!
CARLOS
5th bearish wave in progres@CABKEuropean Banking scenario is quite unstable and untrusted. If the crisis situation on the EU zone wasn't enough add breixt to that. This bank Caixabank (CABKE) is actually catalan bank, where and independency process is taking place. If that will take place in fact is somethong nobody know right now. But this is another element of turbulence.
Despite of that. From an EW point of view a long term bearish correction is taking place since 2015. In the short term a ii-(5)-5-c wave is in progress. That bullish correction may correct almost a 100% so a 2.29 can be expected higher than 2.3 will invalid the count.
The operation will follow:
Open short when the bullish trend is broken. Arround 2.17 depending on how long it takes.
Stoploss 2.33
Take profit target 1.95 at the end of iii-(5)-5-c (ratio 1.37). The alternative target is the end of (5)-5-c wave at 1.7 (ratio 2.75)
*do not pay attention to the smaller degree count (circle) waves 4 and 5 aren't meant to be there. Apologise*
Mid term bearish un last Wave#Brexit has confirmed some bearish trends that were making signals. This still has a bearish path, a price of 17.82 cancels this analysis. For sure a good place to buy would be 13.47 but get to there will take some time maybe a couple months from now.
there would be finished the mid term bearish wave and a 5th will be in develop