Bullish Divergence Transforms to Near End to Oversold ConditionsAT40 = 17.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 10th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period
AT200 = 29.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 23.4
Short-term Trading Call: bullish
Commentary
The small bullish divergence to start the week received follow-through in the form of a big rally day in the stock market. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), jumped from 11.9% to 17.3%. Suddenly, it looks possible for the stock market to bring an end this week to this extremely extended oversold period (AT40 above 20%). AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, came to life by hopping from 25.4% to 29.5%. AT200 even slightly broke through its steep downtrend.
{AT40 (T2108) surged from the lows to the oversold threshold.}
{AT200 (T2107) bounced enough to sneak a peak above its relentless October downtrend.}
So far, the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 4.5% for this 10-day old oversold period. The index is down 3.7% from the start of the first oversold period which is only separated from the current period by one trading day. If the oversold period had ended today, the S&P 500’s performance would have been in-line with historic 14-day long oversold periods and under-performed historic 10-day oversold periods. In both cases projections are for less weakness.
{The performance of the S&P 500 for a given oversold duration (T2108 below 20%).}
In other words, there is a decent case to be made that the breakout from this oversold period will come with another big rally day for the S&P 500. It will need to be a big move to break out of the current steep downward trading channel formed by the lower Bollinger Bands (BBs).
{The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied for a 1.6% gain that perfectly matched the previous day's open and close lower.}
The NASDAQ gained the same percentage as the S&P 500 but its range of motion was not nearly enough to nullify the previous day’s fade and selling. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 1.7% but also failed to nullify the previous day’s pressure.
{The NASDAQ rallied for a 1.6% gain but still sits well within the downward trading channel formed by the lower Bollinger Bands (BBs).}
{The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) rallied 1.7% but still sits within a steep downward trading channel.}
The volatility index, the VIX, only fell 5.5% and closed at 23.4. It is still at elevated levels (above 20) so the stock market remains very vulnerable to wide swings and sharp selling, but at least the intraday high did not reach the recent highs.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rallied for a 2.1% gain. Unlike the other major indices, IWM managed to tap the upper bound of its downward trading channel. IWM hugged this line in the selling that led to the current levels. Follow-through buying would represent a very important breakout.
{The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is making another attempt to break out from its downward trading channel former by its lower Bollinger Bands.}
Although I did not get the volatility spike I wanted to trigger more aggressiveness, I still treated the rally as a validation of the bullish signs from the previous day. I focused on my shopping list even as I took my profits on my latest tranche of SPY call options (expiring Friday). I loaded up on CSX Corporation (CSX) calls, a calendar call spread on Intel (INTC), and of course I implemented my Facebook (FB) pre-earnings trade (twice!). I also decided to get aggressive with small caps given the abundance of beaten up small caps I saw with big gains on the day. I started accumulating call options on IWM expiring in 2 1/2 weeks. I capped off my hedges with a put spread on Boeing (BA) which rallied right to its 200DMA and an obligatory put option on Caterpillar (CAT). From here, I can stay 100% focused on the bullish buying opportunities…while of course keeping in my peripheral vision the on-going (technical) market risks that I have covered in previous Above the 40 posts.
