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IBM

The Quiet Giant: Is A $192 Future Still In Play?IBM has a lot of understated, misunderstood, visionary initiatives under its belt starting last year. The name is no longer what it used to be, but IBM has pivoted before under Lou G. and it can definitely do so again if given time and proper execution. There is a small, but powerful minority that will always root for this stock and that will help propel it on any good momentum or guidance. If IBM continues to soak up and lean into the initiatives that it's begun to focus on with cloud, enterprise, AI, supercomputing and more relevant topics, then there is no doubt new management will be able to slowly, but surely transform this old behemoth into a powerful titan with new, relevant skin. Short term, and perhaps for the year, a $175 price target is easily attainable with good, stable guidance and matched targets. With beats, positive market sentiment and sustained FY '18 guidance that has been reiterated already, hitting $180 is doable. Hitting that magical $192 level would be frosting and cherries on top of having already gotten back to 2015 levels. Expect IBM to be a serious contender at that point.
NYSE:IBMLong
by N3utra
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, UAL, IBM, RSX, XLFEarnings is upon us ... . NFLX announces earnings on Monday after market close. The April 27th 285/347.5 short strangle is paying 11.05 at the mid (yikes!), with a 70% probability of profit; the 68% probability of profit April 27th 272.5/277.5/355/360 is paying 3.36 (67% of the width of the spread). UAL announces Tuesday after market close. The April 27th, 71% probability of profit 62/71.5 short strangle is paying 1.34, with the 67%-er April 27th 58.5/61.5/71.5/74.5 paying .65, although bid/ask on the long aspects of that setup are wide, so you will want to recheck that during regular market hours to see if you do better, with a >75% of the width of the wings being the ideal. IBM announces on Tuesday after market close. Its background implied volatility metrics aren't ideal at 29%, but that figure may ramp up slightly running into the announcement. Currently, the April 27th 148/165 is paying 2.09 (74% probability of profit), with the April 27th 143/148/165/170 paying 1.23 (70% probability of profit). On the exchange-traded-fund front, not much excites me here for new trades; I'm already basically in four out of five of the top background implied volatility symbols (OIH (34); XOP (34); EWZ (31), GDXJ (20), and FXI (25)), and those have all dropped below that 35% background metric I like for entering those trades, although XOP and OIH are probably "close enough." I've also been watching RSX, the Russia exchange traded fund, to potentially take some kind of a directional shot at fading this dip, whether it be via short puts or one of my other "funky" setups (See Post Below). The other one I'm watching for a longer-dated directional bullish shot is XLF, with some single names that announced last week taking it a bit in the groin for various reasons. Given the price of the underlying, it's workable for smaller accounts, although it hasn't historically been a great straight-up premium selling play with its weak sauce implied volatility and doesn't pay much divvy (.43 annualized; 1.57% yield) if you routinely eye things from that perspective.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
XLM + IBM COMBO CONFIRMED BY THE MERKLEXLM + IBM COMBO CONFIRMED BY THE MERKLE Will it Moon? According to The Merkle, IBM's VP confirmed that Stellar is a "big" part of the company's IBM blockchain platform strategy. Check out the news report. We all saw how IOTA mooned with the news of the unconfirmed partnership with Microsoft back in December. Lets take a look at the TA action for XLM at this moment. XLM has retraced to the .236 fib level along with many other ALTS on 3/18. Setting up a the first wave to complete and a healthy .5 fib retracement of the first wave. Momentum is on on our favor if XLM bounces off the 20 on the STOCH RSI. BUY-IN around 26xx stats. T1 @ 3700 stats. T2 @ 4254 - 4913 stats if the hype builds up. We could see XLM finishing it's run at T3 @ 5979 stats. Right now would be a time to buy in with a comfortable stop loss to see how this plays out. ***What's BTC doing? BTC looks like it's found it's bottom (for now) at 7730 USD aT a 0.236 fib retracement form 9176 USD). BTC looking it will go on a run on it's own for the next few days as it will retest the 9k and 10k mark. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. The Unicorn of the Sea - Narwhal
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2706281
1
Quarterly earnings were not enough?IBM ended a long period of decline, however it seems that an attempt to change the trend was quickly rejected. Despite having delivered higher-than-expected earnings reports, the price is close to a very important level of support. What makes me wonder... would it be possible that this attempt to change the trend was initiated by the expectation generated by the income report? And after not having covered the "expectations" immediately lost attention? If that is the case, we will most likely see its price stay within the channel that respect good part of the 2017. If it's just a break, we'll see IBM succeed and rise after retesting this support point. Whatever the case, there are enough reference points to make decisions. I hope this is useful for you. Best wishes to all.
NYSE:IBM
by normstock
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SLB, KMI EARNINGS; XLU, SMH, IYR, EWW, VXXEARNINGS The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up. KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on the 17th after market close. The January 19th expiry's implied volatility is at 40%, with the 26th's at 31.4% (a 27.5% potential contraction). Given the underlying's price, it's probably best to go short straddle. Unfortunately, the Jan 19th's 19.5 short straddle isn't paying much -- .70 at the mid, with break evens clear of the expected move. Given what that's paying, a defined risk play won't pay. IBM (implied volatility rank 93/implied volatility 26) announces on the 18th after market close. January 19th's implied's at 43.2; the 26th's at 31.3 (38.0% potential contraction). The January 19th 157.5/170 short strangle (23 delta) is paying 2.30 at the mid; the 152.5/157.5/170/175 iron condor's only paying 1.49 (<1/3rd wing width), so would probably pass on a defined unless implied volatility frisks up running into earnings. SLB (rank 100/implied 27) announces on the 19th before market open. January 19th's implied is 35.4 vs. Jan 26th's of 27.9 (26.9% potential contraction). The 19th's 76/80 short strangle's paying 1.07 at the mid. Defined -- not worth it. NON-EARNINGS Another area in which implied volatility rank makes potential plays look promising, but where background implied volatility isn't up to stuff. Currently, there are no exchange-traded funds whose implied volatility rank is in the upper one-quarter of so of where it's been over the past year and where background implied is greater than 35%. For what it's worth, though, here are the top ones: XLU (73/15), SMH (59/23), IYR (57/14), and EWW (51/24). VOLATILITY PRODUCTS Recently I've been working VXX* in two ways: (1) "price agnostic," where I enter either a long put vertical or short call vertical when the next weekly expiry open on Thursday or Friday; and (2) on pops where the VXST/VIX ratio is >1.0 (the higher the better). Unfortunately, it's tough to forecast a pop (although I've seen people repeatedly make the attempt), so you just have to set up an alert to trigger on a VXST/VIX ratio print of >1.00 or a VVIX print of >110 and keep powder dry for when it happens. * -- I've been waiting for UVXY to reverse split on the notion that a 1/2 strike of movement in an 8.67 (UVXY Friday close price) underlying is somewhat more of a heavy lift than a 1/2 strike of movement in a 25.85 one, even though UVXY is leveraged.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
1
IBM Meeting Heavy ResistanceIBM has been one of the worst DOW stocks of 2017, but things might change going ahead. IBM which should be seeing a bottoming in revenues as they return to growth from data analytic initiatives and a upgrade cycle in mainframes is on the verge of breaking out. Currently, IBM sits at a major resistance line. Watch for a breakout which could see the stock retest all time highs around $181.00, but a failed breakout may retest rising support around $155.00.
NYSE:IBM
by gthom9