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IBM

IBM: Earnings out tomorrowLet's monitor IBM here, after earnings we might a drop down to support, where it can be an attractive long. We have to wait one day more after earnings are out, to trade it, but we can already label the key levels on chart, and determine what our bias is going into the report, and what fundamentals tell us. I like IBM here, specially if it drops lower, with 8.5% earnings yield and a 6.6% free cash flow yield, growth opportunities are around the corner for IBM. Revenues have been down, but technicals favor uptrend continuation in the monthly chart, specially if we manage to break above the downtrend mode to the left soon. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:IBMLong
by IvanLabrie
2
THE WEEK OF 10/16: WHAT I'M LOOKING ATWhile I grind away on various covered call positions (I only have one covered call with an October short call on; the rest are in November or December), I'm looking ahead to some decent earnings for premium selling. Generally, I'm looking for underlyings whose implied volatility is above the 70th percentile for the past 52 weeks and that have background implied volatility of greater than 50% to play for a contraction in volatility immediately following the earnings announcement, with the go-to strategies being short strangles or iron condors. Currently, there are four underlyings with good liquidity options that announce earnings next week and whose volatility is above the 60th percentile for the preceding 52 weeks: IBM, NFLX, UA, and EBAY. I'm screening for >60 implied volatility rank at this point, since volatility in these could still ramp up to my >70%, meaning that they might be worth keeping an eye on. IBM -- Announces 10/17 after market close. The implied volatility rank is now in the 85th percentile. Unfortunately, the background implied volatility is far from being up to snuff at this point for me (28.3%). NFLX -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Implied vol rank: 64th percentile; implied volatility 56.6%. It's very nearly "there". Hopefully implied volatility pops a little more right before earnings. UA -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Rank: 62; implied vol 41.7%. Needs more. EBAY -- Announces 10/19 after market close. Rank: 93; implied vol 41.6%. Needs more. After I look at implied volatility percentile and the background implied volatility, I look at what I can get out of a setup. Generally, I'm shooting for a 1.00 credit for either a short strangle or iron condor, since I look to take these off at 50% max profit (i.e., a .50 ($50)/contract profit). Alternatively, I look at whether a short straddle or iron fly would make sense if the underlying is just too cheap to yield a decent enough credit. With short straddles/iron flies, I generally look to get 2.00 in credit at the outset, since I tend to manage those at 25% max.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
IBM: Long term entryIBM is offering a great entry for the long term. With earnings having beaten expectations for Q4, I'd be looking for a long trade here, mostly because we've hit a very strong long term support level, but also because the company's valuation at this level seems interesting. You could look into protecting the downside selling covered calls. I reccomend a 9-18% size position here, not more. Good luck if taking this trade. If interested in learning more about my signals service or private coaching, pm me for more information. Thanks for stopping by. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:IBMLong
by IvanLabrie
2
IBM EARNINGS PLAYIBM announces earnings tomorrow after market, so look to put on a play before market close. Here are two possible plays, but I'm looking at these in off hours, so I'm doubtful that the potential credit to be received is accurate, although the strikes, probability of profit, and break even metrics should be fairly accurate (as usual, they may require a strike of two of tweaking after market open): Jan 29 119/142 short strangle Probability of Profit %: 74% Max Profit: $147/contract (tentative) Buying Power Effect: ~$1493 Break Evens: 117.53/143.47 Jan 29 116/119/141/144 iron condor Probability of Profit %: 68% Max Profit: $21/contract (tentative; if it's ultimately the case that this setup will yield <1.00, I would pass on it or look at widening the wings to yield additional credit, assuming that's consistent with your risk tolerance) Buying Power Effect: ~$279 Break Evens: 118.79/141.21 Notes: I'm already in an IBM trade left over from last earnings that I'm working on, so I won't be playing this one .... .
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
NEXT WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- NFLX, IBM, GS, SBUX, AND OTHERSNext week is literally hopping with potential earnings announcement plays. I've tried to pick out the ones that (1) have > 70% implied volatility rank; (2) offer greater than a 1.00 credit ($100) for the "classic" one standard deviation short strangle setup; (3) have fairly good liquidity with options prices; and (4) offer weeklies, but there are also a few >.50/<1.00 credit plays that I might nevertheless play (e.g., CREE, SBUX), although I think I can afford to be picky here given the selection ... . PLAYS TO PUT ON TUESDAY CREE -- Tuesday, after market close. High implied vol rank/high implied vol, but <1.00 credit for a 1 standard deviation short strangle. IBM -- Tuesday, after market close. NFLX -- Tuesday, after market close. GS -- Wednesday, before market open. PLAYS TO PUT ON WEDNESDAY SBUX -- Wednesday, after market close. High implied vol/but implied vol <50% and <1.00 credit. PLAYS TO PUT ON THURSDAY SLB -- Thursday, after market close. I don't think I've every played this underlying. It's a tech company that provides support to oil and gas, and I've got plenty of petro plays on. Notes: There are also a couple of earnings plays that might be interesting to play via other methods. One of these that comes to mind is KMI. It's got a high implied volatility rank, high implied volatility, and liquidity. The problem is that the price of the underlying is currently $13.00, so you just can't get enough premium out of it via short strangle or iron condor to bother with it using one of those strategies ... .
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
IBM IRON CONDOR (UPDATE ON BROKEN EARNINGS SETUP)This is becoming somewhat of an epic, post-earnings work-off setup. Without boring you with all the details (which are outlined in the post below), my post-earnings setup, after rolling and such is currently a Dec 7 140/143/140/143 iron condor. The 140/143 is the put wing and, yes, the 140/143 is the call wing (so it's basically inverted, with the call wing below the put wing; in short, it's an f'd-up setup). In any event, the 143 long call of that setup is nearly worthless, has done its job, so I'm going to take it off here for a .05 credit. The short call I will take off for as much I can get for it. Thereafter, I will have to roll the put side, most likely no later than Tuesday of next week, since I don't see IBM pounding above 143 (my short put strike) in short order. What I'm going to do is look to roll it out 45 DTE, but I'm going to first see what I can get for a 1 SD short call vertical at that expiry (it will be some kind of credit). Once I know what that credit is, I will look to see how much I can improve the short put side in terms of its strikes, because I don't want to pay more to roll/improve the short put side that I can receive in credit for the short call side. The unfortunate thing is that a 45 DTE will most likely be beyond IBM's next earnings announcement, so I will have to watch to see if I can take advantage of price movement/volatility around that event in order to improve the put strikes further ... .
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
Everybody's Gone Shortin' - Shortin' U.S.A.In this post I would like to put together some previous stock market calls (still valid), as well as add two more promising shorts. It's been a rough week for US stocks culminating in a clear break of the Head&Shoulders' neckline at 2045. This kind of pattern is usually referred to as "Complex H&S top" , because there are multiple peaks and its "head" is a H&S pattern itself. The traditional target is set in the 1945 area , though we expect a move of greater magnitude. There is a more traditional H&S in LinkedIn. It calls for a sizable move to the downside. Another bearish pattern is a Rising Wedge, or Ending Diagonal, in Bank of America. The first target here is $15 area, which is some 10% from here. I'm still positioned according to previously published ideas: Baidu IBM Intel and Procter&Gamble : All of them are currently profitable. Best of luck, mates
SP:SPXShort
by Nickonomics
2
IBM Ready For A BreakoutIBM had a disastrous quarter in Q3 2014, where growth dramatically slowed. The market has punished IBM by selling it off hard. Following its drop from $190 to $160 IBM went into a long period of accumulation. The chart reminds me a classic Wyckoff pattern. As Richard Wyckoff explained in his seminal book on tap reading, large Wallstreet operators are not afraid to buy a fallen stock, provided the stock is large, liquid and has good earnings. In fact, they welcome an opportunity to accumulate shares at discount prices confident in their ability to mark up the stock once they have built a full position. While Wyckoff's work cover the classic period of 1920-30, I think its core is as relevant today as it once was. IBM fits the profile perfectly. It is an institutional stock that mutual fund managers are extremely comfortable with. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that large operators are accumulating the stock. The chart, in general, seems to confirm. You can see a typical pattern of the stock being stuck in a ~ 8% range with a very strong support in $152 area. The support has been tested 3 times so far and held up. Finally, on April 23 IBM broke out of the range on increased volume. This is a sign that accumulation is over and the large operators are ready to mark up the stock. optionsforum.net
NYSE:IBMLong
by baerrus
#Blackberry looks stronger, could be takeover targetWith FireEye and Cyber very hot, and Raytheon buying WebSense, Blackberry looks cheap and very buyable. CEO John Chen wants to build BBRY to a bigger company (20.00+/share), but a 16.00 offer is viable. Majority shareholders could push hard enough to give in. I'd like to see BBRY get more partnerships that make it indispensable. Ultimately should be worth upward of 24.00 - 30.00, but short term needs Samsung, IBM, Apple, and more to get it back to health.
BLong
by trdollar