IBM
IBM IRON CONDOR (UPDATE ON BROKEN EARNINGS SETUP)This is becoming somewhat of an epic, post-earnings work-off setup.
Without boring you with all the details (which are outlined in the post below), my post-earnings setup, after rolling and such is currently a Dec 7 140/143/140/143 iron condor. The 140/143 is the put wing and, yes, the 140/143 is the call wing (so it's basically inverted, with the call wing below the put wing; in short, it's an f'd-up setup).
In any event, the 143 long call of that setup is nearly worthless, has done its job, so I'm going to take it off here for a .05 credit. The short call I will take off for as much I can get for it.
Thereafter, I will have to roll the put side, most likely no later than Tuesday of next week, since I don't see IBM pounding above 143 (my short put strike) in short order. What I'm going to do is look to roll it out 45 DTE, but I'm going to first see what I can get for a 1 SD short call vertical at that expiry (it will be some kind of credit). Once I know what that credit is, I will look to see how much I can improve the short put side in terms of its strikes, because I don't want to pay more to roll/improve the short put side that I can receive in credit for the short call side.
The unfortunate thing is that a 45 DTE will most likely be beyond IBM's next earnings announcement, so I will have to watch to see if I can take advantage of price movement/volatility around that event in order to improve the put strikes further ... .
**I TOLD YOU SO - 160 POINTS ON THE SPX CALLED SEE FOR YOURSELF IN THE LAST 3 DAYS - I CALLED THE FOLLOWING 160 POINTS
THIS IS WHAT TRADING WITH CONFIDENCE LOOKS LIKE!!!!!!!!!!
I WILL BE STARTING MY OWN EMAIL BASED WEBSITE SOON....IT WILL BE FREE AT THE START BUT THOSE OF YOU WHO SUPPORT ME AND SEND ME YOUR EMAIL.. I WILL GIVE A REDUCE/ SPECIAL RATE.
EMAIL ME : SENTIMENTTIMINGNEWSLETTER@GMAIL.COM
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: IBM ON LONG TERM RISKIBM is on risk of 5-year downtrend after falling out from 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean.
Additionally, price has fallen out of 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean, this is on short term downward risk as well.
Thus unless price trades back above short term risk order @ 150.5 - and then back above larger downtrend risk border @ 157.5 - risk of continued downtrend on IMB persists.
Everybody's Gone Shortin' - Shortin' U.S.A.In this post I would like to put together some previous stock market calls (still valid), as well as add two more promising shorts. It's been a rough week for US stocks culminating in a clear break of the Head&Shoulders' neckline at 2045. This kind of pattern is usually referred to as "Complex H&S top" , because there are multiple peaks and its "head" is a H&S pattern itself. The traditional target is set in the 1945 area , though we expect a move of greater magnitude. There is a more traditional H&S in LinkedIn. It calls for a sizable move to the downside. Another bearish pattern is a Rising Wedge, or Ending Diagonal, in Bank of America. The first target here is $15 area, which is some 10% from here.
I'm still positioned according to previously published ideas:
Baidu
IBM
Intel
and Procter&Gamble :
All of them are currently profitable.
Best of luck, mates
IBM Ready For A BreakoutIBM had a disastrous quarter in Q3 2014, where growth dramatically slowed. The market has punished IBM by selling it off hard. Following its drop from $190 to $160 IBM went into a long period of accumulation. The chart reminds me a classic Wyckoff pattern. As Richard Wyckoff explained in his seminal book on tap reading, large Wallstreet operators are not afraid to buy a fallen stock, provided the stock is large, liquid and has good earnings. In fact, they welcome an opportunity to accumulate shares at discount prices confident in their ability to mark up the stock once they have built a full position. While Wyckoff's work cover the classic period of 1920-30, I think its core is as relevant today as it once was.
IBM fits the profile perfectly. It is an institutional stock that mutual fund managers are extremely comfortable with. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that large operators are accumulating the stock. The chart, in general, seems to confirm. You can see a typical pattern of the stock being stuck in a ~ 8% range with a very strong support in $152 area. The support has been tested 3 times so far and held up. Finally, on April 23 IBM broke out of the range on increased volume. This is a sign that accumulation is over and the large operators are ready to mark up the stock.
optionsforum.net
#Blackberry looks stronger, could be takeover targetWith FireEye and Cyber very hot, and Raytheon buying WebSense, Blackberry looks cheap and very buyable. CEO John Chen wants to build BBRY to a bigger company (20.00+/share), but a 16.00 offer is viable. Majority shareholders could push hard enough to give in. I'd like to see BBRY get more partnerships that make it indispensable. Ultimately should be worth upward of 24.00 - 30.00, but short term needs Samsung, IBM, Apple, and more to get it back to health.
Last week's Elite Zone winner struggles with resistance$IBM was one of our winners, in the Elite Zone last week with an impressive breakout of a descending trading channel we've been monitoring. Now, when it is at the top of my buying zone, the question is, can $IBM make it above 165$ to continue to my secondary target level - The 200 SMA line?
It all started with a bullish AB=CD pattern on the weekly 61.8 Fib level.. so the potential is there. Will we see another retracement lower, before the next rally?
Bullish longer term, cautious short term
IBM $164.52: Confirms a higher base on rallying through FebruaryIBM rebounded off the 153.40 low (March 13, 2015) through February’s 162.49 high to confirm a higher base over the former and trigger further strength towards 165.59 (October 31, 2014 range high) ahead of last October’s 170.33 gap low (October 20, 2014 high) near the 200 day moving average currently at 169.53. 160.35/158.81 (March 20/19, 2015 lows) serves as the immediate support zone where buyers are expected to step in.
Keep knocking on the door and it'll eventually break.Been watching this level since the start of the year, it seems that bulls refuse to give up IBM.
Knocking on the resistance of $164 again and again over the past few months. Eventually, bears behind the door might give way.
Open: 164.69
S/L: 162.01
T/P: 178.07 (gaps)
Earnings might be the catalyst, I've my algorithmic orders waiting.
IBM's well oiled wheel could be about to drop off. Just read this article on www.marketwatch.com
"IBM
• Sector: technology
• Market value: $160 billion
• 2014 return: -13%
While most large caps have risen from October’s slide, IBM has been left behind. That means a great buying opportunity for long-term investors.
IBM is one of those mega-cap tech stocks that have a place in almost every portfolio. For starters, there’s the 2.7% dividend yield and a history of payouts since 1916. There’s also the stability that comes with a company that does roughly $100 billion in annual sales and sports over $14 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet."
Source full article : www.marketwatch.com
One could dig real deep and find all sorts of justifiable reasons why such reputable company should continue it's upward price trajectory in to indefinite future.
However, from the price history on this chart, I suspect that we have just completed a 5 wave cycle that could be also a larger 5 wave cycle that began from bottom of 1929-1932 Wall Street crash. See the chart of Dow as surrogate for the sector.
Even ignoring the price history before 1980, having completed 5 wave cycle, EW guidelines suggest price correcting to wave 4 low of one cycle degree lower. That suggest a ball park figure in the region of $70-50 area.
Is it the right time to buy this stock or many others like it. I think not. Rather wait for few more year and pick it up at bargain basement price may be $50 or lower.
Or better still consider long term far out of the money PUT Options and sit back.
As always do you own analysis. Select to follow me and the chart for any future updates or new charts. Share it freely with others you feel might benefit from this chart.
If you have specific alternative view and chart to share please feel fee to do so.
FB REACHES IMPORTANT 2ND TARGET ON LT AND ST TIME FRAMES Our analysis @ stated in part, "Barring a meltdown in earnings or subscribers, FB will be bought at certain levels in expectation of reaching the 2nd target shown. The short also has its' targets and one has been reached on a shorter time frame at 58. On a shorter time frame, FB is reacting to a long that has its' target above ATH."
The 2nd targets on both time frames have been reached simultaneously, and as is true more than 95% of the time, a pullback occasioned by profit-taking is occurring. No surprise there. Typical market behavior. There is no reason for traders with long positions to have held beyond the 2nd target level. Expensive habit to bet against high probability entries and targets.
What now?
We are showing the two possibilities that exist at this time and their attendant targets. The long is a short time frame setup and the short is a longer time frame setup.Earnings and EOY shenanigans are factors to keep in mind. A disappointing earnings report would be a great gift to all long term investors/traders who are patient.
A word of caution; Don't make the mistake a trying to hop a freight that has already left the station, no matter how tempting it may appear.
IBM Corp Daily (10.Sep.2014) Technical Analysis Training The IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has declined following a resistance red line into a triangle. The weekly diagram is neutral.
So the first think in mind is the reaction from the KUMO.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is on the KUMO and under the Tenkan Sen too (green line). The SPAN A is above SPAN B.
There is no special pattern.
Long for the upper resistance first. Stop loss under the KUMO.
**In a long term view I saw a reversal pattern that could drive the share at 220 and upper.
IBM Daily (18.08.2014) Tech Analysis EMAThis week we will see the EMA (50,100,200) and MACD,RSI for various diagrams.
The IBM Share (IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The IBM tries to breach the EMA 50 today with a long green candlestick from 0.5 of fib to 0.618. There is a sense of bull market because the EMA 50 is above EMA 100 & EMA 200 and EMA 100 is above EMA 200 too. There are some Golden crosses last month.
MACD is turning bullish on the zero line. RSI moves to 51.
There is a support line and all seems bullish.
If it closes as is, long for 191.96 first and stop loss under 187.73.
IBM Corp Daily (12.08.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe IBM Corp (NYSE:IBM) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis training shows the following:
IBM share has reacted from the bottom of KUMO and nw is exactly on the EMA 200. The 0.618 of fib @188.42 is the test for today.
So the first think in mind is the overcome of Top of KUMO and the KijunSen_Tenkan Sen resistance at 189.99 for this week.
We have no special candlestick pattern. The share is into the KUMO and under the Kijun Sen (blue line) and Tenkan Sen too (green line). The Chikun Span has a block of resistance.
There is no special pattern.
Long for 188.42 first and 189.99 secondly. Stop loss 185 (0.5 of fib).