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IBM

IBM an opportunityfor long-term investors???IBM :125 Market cap: 112 B P/E:23 Dividend Yield: 5.21% Currently trading at the bottom of a bullish regression channel (-3,+3). In the past, it touched this level and each time bounced back +50%..! The fundamental fair value estimation is 142-172 USD/share which is very likely to happen in the next trading year. However, in the past 5 years, IBM showed that it could easily slip to 90-100 USD/share and no matter how good this company is, The price pattern says there will be better opportunities to buy IBM in the next few months! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA nor an accountant nor a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:IBM
by Moshkelgosha
4
IBM | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...IBM shares fell nearly 10 percent to a seven-month low on Oct. 21 after the tech behemoth released a weak Q3 report. IBM's revenues rose just 0.3 percent from a year earlier to $17.6 billion, $190 million less than forecasts. But excluding divestitures and foreign exchange rates, the company's revenues were down 0.2%. Excluding the impending Kyndryl spin-off, IBM's revenue was up 2.5% in the period. Excluding divested businesses and foreign exchange rates, "excluding Kyndryl" earnings were up 1.9%. IBM's GAAP earnings, which include Kyndryl spin-off expenses, fell 34% to $1.25 per share. Non-GAAP earnings, which exclude those expenses, still fell 2% to $2.52 per share, but beat forecasts by one penny. IBM's performance was unimpressive, but it was in line with the outlook the company presented at an investor briefing in early October. Did investors exaggerate IBM's disappointing third-quarter report and create a new buying opportunity? As in previous quarters, IBM reported third-quarter earnings in five main segments: cloud and cognitive software, global business services, global technology services, systems, and global finance. IBM's cloud and cognitive software revenues grew thanks to double-digit growth in its cloud-related business, which offset low growth in its applications business and lower revenues in its transaction processing business. The global business services segment profited from strong demand for cloud services, consulting, application management, and global technology services. However, the Global Technology Services division weakened again, as weak growth in cloud services could not offset the continued decline in the Managed Infrastructure Services segment, which will be taken out by the Kyndryl spin-off. The company's systems division struggled because of cyclically declining sales of IBM Z and Power systems, and financing revenues declined amid lower demand for financing services and slow sales of used equipment. Once again, IBM's strengths failed to offset vulnerabilities, and investors were left attempting to find positives in lackluster reporting segments. However, this may all change as the "old" IBM ceases to exist. After IBM spins off from Kyndryl next week, it will present four new reporting segments: consulting (29% of continuing operations revenue in 2020), software (42%), infrastructure (25%), and finance (2%). IBM thinks these four segments will make it easier for investors to track the expansion of its faster-growing businesses. IBM expects the software segment, which includes Red Hat and other hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence services, to be a major growth driver. It also probably anticipates a streamlined consulting segment to better stand up to faster IT services and consulting companies, such as Accenture and Globant. IBM's infrastructure business, which includes the legacy systems business as well as other hardware products and services, is likely to remain underperforming. However, IBM's earnings outlook suggests that the company will focus on streamlining its business and cutting costs to improve margins. IBM believes that after the Kyndryl spin-off, it will deliver "sustained mid-single-digit revenue growth" from 2022 to 2024. The company believes this growth to be driven by the expansion of hybrid cloud and AI services that can be integrated with public cloud platforms such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Microsoft Azure. IBM probably realizes that it is too late to catch up with AWS and Azure in the public cloud market, but it can still use its large enterprise customer base and Red Hat's open-source software to develop services for the hybrid cloud, which sits between private clouds and public cloud services. IBM investors will get Kyndryl stock next month. If they keep both shares, they will initially receive a combined dividend equivalent to IBM's current dividend, but then both companies may reduce their payouts. It would seem that IBM investors should sell their Kyndryl stock immediately since the latter would likely have difficulty keeping up with companies like Accenture, but hold onto their shares of a "renewed" IBM to see if its plans to get out of the crisis work. Nevertheless, today is not a good time to buy IBM stock. Right now, the stock may seem cheap at 12 times forward earnings, but the company still faces stiff competition from Amazon and Microsoft, which are expanding their public clouds in a hybrid market, and an unstable infrastructure business could derail growth in its software and consulting business. Investors should wait for IBM to complete its spin-off and for results to improve for a few quarters before believing that the tipping point has arrived. Until then, they should buy other blue-chip stocks, not Big Blue.
NYSE:IBMShort
by FOREXN1
4
Post 10/20 Q3 FY21' Earnings Analysis $TSLA, $VZ, $IBM, $NDAQ $TSLA closed up ~+1.5% after reporting revenue that fell short of estimates - profit beat Q3 projections, despite a semiconductor shortage and supply-chain challenges that have troubled automakers $VZ gained +2.4% yesterday following better-than-expected earnings numbers and a lower-than-expected customer churn rate, showing continuous growth $IBM fell (5%+) in extended trading after missing revenue expectations and showing a decrease in gross margin vs. Q2 - also said that increased labor costs will be impacting their pricing in the future $NDAQ posted beats on both EPS and Revenue for the 4th straight quarter - largely thanks to strong performances by both the Solutions and Market Services businesses
SP:SPX
by jnallain1
IBM:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS|PRICE ACTION+NEXT TARGET|SHORT IDEA 🔔International Business Machines continues to transform itself into more of a cloud computing company. Since it acquired Red Hat a couple of years ago, it has increasingly distinguished itself as a hybrid cloud leader. In addition, the spin-off of the managed infrastructure services business may allow IBM to focus solely on that growth. Nevertheless, while IBM offers investors many reasons to buy, one key issue may scare off some investors in the near term. The first advantage is the impending spin-off of Kyndryl. Despite IBM's breakthroughs in chip manufacturing and supercomputing innovation, the company's fastest-growing segment is the cloud. CEO Arvind Krishna has been committed to turning IBM into a cloud player since he took the helm in April 2020. He was instrumental in Red Hat's acquisition, and Red Hat's Kubernetes and OpenShift software can simplify the communication problems inherent in public and private clouds working with each other. Moreover, Kyndryl's spin-off from IBM should facilitate this transition, and IBM shareholders will receive a portion of Kyndryl's stock at the time of this spin-off. While this may seem like a convenient way to offload an inefficient business, Kyndryl is taking a $60 billion backlog with it. This volume of work allows Kyndryl to arrange a turnaround under a management team focused solely on the managed infrastructure business. Krishna believes that once Kyndryl becomes a separate division, IBM will be able to consistently deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth, a significant improvement for a company that has sometimes failed to deliver positive revenue growth in the recent past. A second advantage is dividends and cash flow. IBM continues to generate cash flow despite its difficulties with earnings growth. Over the past 12 months, the company has generated about $9.7 billion in free cash flow, enough to easily cover $5.8 billion in dividend expenses over that period. These dividends have long pleased investors. The company now pays shareholders $6.56 per share a year, which at current prices is about 4.7%. This is considerably higher than the 1.3% that the S&P 500 Index currently yields on average. In addition, IBM has the status of a dividend aristocrat, as the company has increased its payout for 26 consecutive years. Investors should note that both IBM and Kyndryl will retain aristocrat status after the separation. However, the decision to retain aristocrat status will be made separately by the boards of IBM and Kyndryl. The third benefit is an improved balance sheet. IBM's cash flow is crucial for another reason. IBM's current debt is $55.2 billion, a huge burden when the company's equity is just over $21.9 billion. Nevertheless, while this debt remains a big burden on the balance sheet, shareholders should remember that the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion in the past 12 months. It has also reduced those liabilities by $17.9 billion since the Red Hat acquisition in 2019. That is significant because the Red Hat purchase cost IBM $34 billion. In the second quarter of 2019, the company increased its total debt by $23 billion in one quarter to cover the cost of the acquisition. So so far, the company has paid back all but $5 billion in debt from the Red Hat deal. The only downside is the uncertainty about the Kyndryl division. Unfortunately, questions remain about what each company's balance sheet will look like after the spin-off. For example, IBM has not said how it would distribute the remaining debt load between the two companies. That is important because an unfair split could jeopardize the balance sheet of at least one of the companies. Among other things, the issues go far beyond the level of debt and the state of IBM's equity capital. Although the company has told shareholders that they will receive a portion of Kyndryl's stock, they have no clear idea of the number of shares they will receive. In addition, IBM has not disclosed how much of Kyndryl's revenue, net income, or free cash flow is generated and how this affects shareholders on a per-share basis. This uncertainty about the company's valuation comes at a time when IBM's P/E ratio has risen above 23, something not seen since 2018. In addition, this uncertainty is particularly important to IBM's dividend-oriented investors. IBM has told shareholders that the two companies will split the payout. Thus, investors cannot accurately gauge each company's future earnings or their ability to keep the portion of the dividend they receive. So should you consider IBM? Despite the unanswered questions, both companies should perform better as separate units. Since IBM is more of a cloud company, its massive growth in that niche should have a bigger impact on its stock. Moreover, Kyndryl probably has a better chance of turning a huge order book into growing revenue, since its only priority is managed infrastructure. However, income-oriented investors face profound uncertainty because they don't know which part of the business will provide the most support for payouts. For this reason, investors in this class should consider staying on the sidelines until more information becomes available.
NYSE:IBMShort
by FOREXN1
2
INTC going 200$+++Intel can only go up from here, with all the hype stocks like AMD and Nvidia for example just relentlessly going up and are way overpriced at this point, you are overpaying for growth. All you need to do is look at INTC 1999/2000 hype run up and 20+ years later the stock never made a new all the time. While the stock never made a new all time high i strongly believe now is the time for Intel. With the new intel GPUs that are coming out early next year they will take market share from both Nvidia and AMD, the growth potential is almost unlimited for them as they start from zero. CPUs are still not as good as AMD ones but Intel is still on 14nm process node while AMD is using TSMC 7nm and that is main reason they are ahead but the cap is not that huge, Intel is still on very old 14nm process node and are able to compete still with AMD just fine. *Massive cash flow *Intel 10nm is coming online soon.(It will be equal or better then TSMC 7nm) *Intel is investing between $60 billion and $120 billion on brand-new fab complex. *Intel got a alliance/deal with IBM(yes that boring IBM the research company) to use the new revolutionary 2nm process, IBM’s 2nm process offers greater density (more transistors per square millimeter) and lower power than TSMC’s 3nm(This news is so massive yet none talks about it). *All Intel competitors are fabless and are using TSMC to produce the chips...even Apple. With China being unpredictable right now, tension with Taiwan would have unknown consequences. Nvidia, AMD, Apple etc all those companies would have no way to make the chips anymore, yes crazy right? www.tomshardware.com www.forbes.com
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by Raunz
5
NVDA [Update]So far on NVDA we are still up nicely on our original idea and as we predicted NVDA is now putting all of our fib levels to the litmus test as it finds itself right in the middle zone of the entire fib retracement. I expected the .383 to be properly tested before liftoff and so far it is holding up. If it can continue to hold, NVDA will find itself breaking out once more as a bullish falling wedge is now being painted on the 4 hour timeframe. One could debate if this is valid or not due to the breakdown out of its lower trendline, and that is fine. Because what we are most interested in is the upper trendline of the falling wedge as it appears to be serving as resistance on the price. This is not something to ignore as supply lines like this can often be a warning of an impending bearish downtrend if price continues to fail when touching it. So for this reason I am moving my stop losses up to around $189.79. The reason for this is because of not only the bearish trendline over our head, but because a breaking to the downside of the .382 fib level with a confirming candle on the 4 hour could mean a retest of much deeper levels at or around the bottom of the falling wedge or our .236 fibonacci level. So closing my position in profit and buying right back in at a discount is what I will be looking for in the near future. In the meantime, however, I am still in my long but I am monitoring closely. NVDA will need to get moving and break the red trendline but ultimately put in a higher high in price by breaking the .618 fibonacci level over our head but that discussion will be kept reserve for a future post or update.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradeVibez
1
IBM:FULL DETAILS FUNDAMENTAL+PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS|SHORT SETUP🔔IBM just posted its best quarter in years. This tech giant demonstrated very modest overall revenue growth in the second quarter of 2021, but an expansion in its cloud computing business, driven by its flagship Red Hat, which the company acquired in 2019. For income-seeking investors, IBM is a great dividend stock right now, and the hope is that growth will be even stronger after the Kyndryl spin-off is completed by the end of this year. Here are several reasons why IBM is one of the best variants to buy right now. - IBM's cloud solution sales are too undervalued In the second quarter, IBM's total revenue rose just 3% year over year to $18.7 billion, and in the first half of the year, sales rose 2% to $36.5 billion. No big deal given the fast-paced digital age we live in, but not too bad for IBM given that it has been stuck in a steady decline for years. Hidden beneath the surface and helping IBM regain positive momentum, however, is its huge cloud computing segment, which is still noteworthy. Total cloud computing sales were up 13 percent from a year ago to $7 billion, led by cloud provider Red Hat, which reportedly grew 20 percent. In fact, Red Hat has accelerated from the pace it set last year. In fact, this strong performance of the cloud segment is the main reason IBM is spinning off its managed infrastructure segment (which we now know will be called Kyndryl). While technical infrastructure hardware is still an important segment of IT, it is not a growth area. It also offers lower profit margins than cloud software. Thus, the new IBM will focus more on its cloud business, which should help it achieve higher growth and earnings potential once the spin-off is complete by the end of this year. - A high level of free cash flow generation Of course, in the period leading up to the new cloud-focused IBM, it's primarily a dividend stock. And when it comes to dividend payments, it's all about free cash flow generation. IBM is doing well in that regard. In the first six months of this year, free cash flow was $2.56 billion, which pretty much covers the $1.47 billion paid out as dividends to shareholders. Of course, $2.56 billion is a bit less than the $3.65 billion in free cash flow generated in the first half of 2020. So what's the bottom line? First, IBM spent $1.22 billion in 2021 on one-time expenses related to setting up the Kyndryl division. Setting that amount aside, free cash flow would have increased by 4%. IBM also spent $2.87 billion on cash acquisitions this year. Since January, it has acquired nine smaller software and consulting companies to bolster its presence in cloud computing. Setting aside these acquisition-related costs, IBM would report an impressive 81% year-over-year increase in free cash flow in the first half of 2021. In other words, IBM's current dividend yield of 4.7% is a good bet right now. - Improving the balance sheet When it comes to tech giants, industry leaders (like FAANG stock) have net cash. But not so at IBM. The more than century-old company has far more debt than cash. At the end of the second quarter, the company had $7.35 billion in cash and cash equivalents and another $600 million in marketable securities, but still had $55.2 billion in debt. It's far from the nicest-looking balance sheet, but progress is evident. IBM had $61.5 billion in debt at the start of 2021, so the old tech company has reduced its obligations to bondholders by about $6.3 billion this year -- and has reduced debt by $17.9 billion since buying Red Hat in 2019. Although there's still work to be done, IBM has an investment-grade credit rating due to its strong free cash flow generation, and it can handle both dividend payments and gradual debt repayments. The sale of Kyndryl promises to be a major event for IBM later this year, but for now, it is the best dividend company for investors looking for additional income. At the time of writing, the company's stock price is up 12% this year.
NYSE:IBMShort
by FOREXN1
7
IBM 1M The history of the corporation is worthy of respectInternational Business Machines Corporation is an American electronic corporation, one of the world's largest manufacturers of all types of computers and software, one of the largest providers of global information networks. IBM owns more patents than any other technology company. The story begins in the 19th century. If you have been following us for a long time, you should notice that we decided to make a portfolio of ideas from assets in the stock market for the long term. And of course, it would have been blasphemy if we hadn't written a review of such a powerful company as IBM. The corporation has been actively developing for more than a century, making our life easier and better by introducing new technologies into it. Looking at the chart, you can name one dark period in their history - this is the beginning of the 90s, when the price of IBM shares fell to a critical $10. In the early 1990s, the mainframe market crisis began, which peaked in 1993. And you guessed it - the main developer of mainframes was the IBM corporation. In 1993 Many analysts talking about the complete extinction of mainframes just now, and about the transition from centralized information processing to distributed (although the last mainframe was turned off in 2013). In 1993, IBM posted a $8bn loss - the largest in American corporate history at the time - and it was time for drastic action. New gene. director Luis Gerstner decides to cut 20% of its employees, which is 60,000 people. It was the largest cut in American history, but helped the IBM corporation survive from 1993-1994. From 1993 to 2002, when Gerstner left the Big Blue, the company's market capitalization rose from $29 billion to $168 billion . This man is considered the savior of IBM. The next interesting period is the beginning of 2013 , then a protracted correction in the value of IBM shares began, with which the price is now trying to start going up. An interesting coincidence is that the price of Gold went into its 6-year correction also at the beginning of 2013. Such a correlation might suggest that long-term investors have so much faith in IBM that they can view their stock as a defensive asset on par with Gold?) By the way, below is our global thought in relation to Gold. So, now let's talk about the prospects that we assume looking at the chart. The maximum correction that we are now admitting is a fall to $110.50-112.50 , from which we expect a solid rise in the value of IBM shares. We consider the critical level - $180 Fixing the price above this level will open the way for a long-term growth perspective to $500-530 If the market will be negative, and the price cannot break through above $180, then unfortunately, then it will already be necessary to look towards $70 per IBM share What do you say, about such material, comes in? Share your thoughts and expectations in the comments on IBM stock
NYSE:IBM
by P_S_trade
27
IBM More Downside?This is a short-term possibly bearish post within a longer term bullish play. Last week IBM closed out with a big 4.5% drop in one day after news of the CEO resigning. But was this the cause or was something larger perhaps in the chart in play here? Well when we zoom out on the monthly chart, we see back in April this year IBM broke aggressively bullish out of the downward sloping green trendline and went straight to the 0.5 fib level around $153. What was missing on this move however, was a confirming retest of the green trendline. It appears the bulls were front runners of the price, and now the retest of the green broken trendline is still well in play. There is lots of bullish confluence where the price currently sits, however. So it will be interesting to see how IBM's price will behave both this week as well as the remainder of this new month. Right now is a decent area to nibble on a long but be on the lookout for a retest of the green trendline and keep stop losses tight as this has been a roller coaster of an asset.
NYSE:IBM
by TradeVibez
IBM case study: Breakouts after 2500 days correctionToday, I observed the IBM chart, and I noticed this huge descending channel on the daily chart since 2013, and I saw that the price was breaking it. So, I decided to go to a higher timeframe to look for similar scenarios in the past, and yes!!!!!, having data since 1985 allowed us to see how this type of situation evolved in the past. Here are my conclusions First Conclusion: Consolidations last between 2500 and 3000 days. That's a lot... Second Conclusion : After we have a clear breakout (always using the most external trendlines of the consolidation), the price makes small corrective movements on the edge of the structure with a duration between 150 - 300 days. The key aspect here is that we can see an ABC pattern all the time. Third Conclusion: Based on the two scenarios we have, we can see that in the second one, we had a failed setup on the first consolidation. However, the second one worked pretty well. "Be open to failed setups, and trade again if the 150 - 300 days corrections come again. Fourth Conclusion: The bullish movements that come after these consolidations (the ones after the breakout) goes between 90% to 500% So what is the idea with this? The idea is that we can create a scenario where we know what we are waiting for before trading. In this case, we want to see a breakout of this 3000 days consolidation followed by a small correction around 150 - 300 days. If that happens, we will trade the breakout of it, and we will aim to have an open setup for 1 to 2 years. We think that the risk-reward ratio we can have on these types of setups is above 7 to 1. Using 2% of the capital on a setup like this can provide a 14% return over a year or two (ONLY risking 2% of your capital). The post's main objective is to show that you can create trading maps on any asset with the correct amount of past data, study previous scenarios and get ready for a current situation. Thanks for reading!
NYSE:IBMEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
IBM breaking 8 year downtrendIBM is beginning to break out on the weekly chart from a trend line that was acting as strong resistance for over 8 years. Recently the company has unveiled the world's first 2nm chip and announced previously that it will begin focusing on Cloud and AI which will serve the company well as those are two large secular growth stories. Go Long IBM. Trades at 9.79 EV/EBITDA ratio, well run company financially with a long growth path ahead of it. I expect IBM and INTC to be some of the main beneficiaries of the bill that just passed in the senate today that okayed $54 billion dollars for the Semiconductor Industry to focus production on American soil and improve research efforts. INTC and IBM have long been the American blue-chip players in the space and are currently collaborating in advanced semiconductor research. This is a timely partnership as INTC is building two new fabs in Arizona and IBM just released its 2nm chip but does not manufacture its own chips (ahem ahem INTC). Long-term Price Target: $250 Daily Chart w/ Golden Cross:
NYSE:IBMLong
by EBITDAtiger
5