ICE
Orange Juice At Lows With Some Hidden DivergenceOrange Juice low on Demand over Supply but on Technical and Seasonality Charts historically, I say we see Price at a Good Buy Price!!!
Sugar Futures (SB1!) long.All description on the chart.
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RBOB Gasoline Futures (Jan 2020) - Rectangle in formationNYMEX:RBF2020
Clear rectangle on the January Futures of the RBOB Gasoline.
A breakout could lead to an interesting trend to ride.
When trading commodities and futures contracts you should always take into account the specifications of each contract to calculate exactly how many contracts to buy or sell short on the basis of your risk management and position sizing.
www.cmegroup.com
Coffee Futures (KC1!) long.Targets and stops on the chart.
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BTCUSD BTFNX thoughtsI would like what currently I'm scared of on current graphics.
Let's start with indicators analysis. As for me, I see a pretty good perspective for a BTC price. Currently, AO, MACD, Stoch RSI and RSI are awesome, I mean due to a daily chart all of them show that we can expect growth. Might be this could be confirmation that soon we will see the second shoulder and downtrend, but weekly charts are also good, due to indicators AO, MACD, Stoch RSI, and RSI are positive, also there is a huge bullish divergence on weekly MACD formed from 22 Jan 2018 with the first extremum on 14 Apr 2018 and second on 18 Jun 2018.
But we have to be aware of the H&S pattern which is rather a strong pattern, due to indicators I'm 75% sure that we will see growth to the second shoulder. Soon we will see growth confirmation or the H&S, so be careful with it, and do not forget to set stop.
As for me, I see a good perspective for a growth, let's say that I don't believe in a rapid growth, but I believe in a couple month growth. Due to the news, we have to expect good news in a couple of months ahead. Starting with CBOE BTC ETF verdict on 30th September, Nasdaq is about to add crypto trading on Gemini architecture in the second quarter, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), who own NYSE said that they are working on a BAKKT platform for exchange crypto for USD and BAKKT will be fully regulated. All of this is just a tip of an iceberg, lots of new positive updates are coming.
Few words about crypto regulation in the USA.
So, I don't think that people who work at the ICE, Nasdaq and other companies who work in a crypto sector are that stupid to invest that kind of money and not be sure that everything is going to be ok)
I expect for a good perspective for a crypto in upcoming months.
BTW I think current problems around crypto in the USA because of low volume on BTC futures.
ICE - New HighIce is breaking out of its trading range 70-76
for the las half a year ICE consolidated near its highs
nice risk reward here
note the upcoming earnings report next week
XAU/USD Still HOLD for me!XAU/USD still didn't show a clear path, but I would suggest on the Medium-term to accelerate back to 1300s! But for me now I will wait and watch because there might be a bit of room to the downside to go to drop till 1242 and then hike back in case no breakout confirmed! (That's way I will be extra cautious)
Year of the Bear -> Ice Age -> Moon ? (Long term)Blow off top in 2017, need to have capitulation yet and have even hodlers doubt themselves feel long, intense pain and want to die, then "slowly" (relatively) build back up to just go parabolic again to 100,000+. Upon reaching 20,000 again I wouldn't doubt a sell off to 15,000 but then shoot to the moon, maybe 500,000, then crash to 50,000, rinse and repeat.
Icx ProjectionI think that ICX will bounce in this tunnel until we are able to push past 5000 sats, which might allow us to reach 5500-6500 sats, have a good day guys! lock in those profits!
Strong false breakout on Long Island Iced Tea/Long BlockchainLong Island Iced Tea recently changed it's name to Long Blockchain and in the process caused a huge price spike. This move broke previous strong support level around 6 USD.
As price returned as sharply as it broke it has now retrace back below the 6 USD level. This could be a strong fake breakout reversion. Potentially this could go to 4 USD and beyond.
Kiwi continue downtrend after re-ditributionClearly visible on cumulative volume selling pressure - falling through the ICE pattern.
Wait for pullback and go short.
CT overbought. Looking for sideways to take a breatherTechnically overbought. New highs made with declining volume. Not an indicator for continued strength. Overall uptrend is intact, but we are near upper end of trend channel. On top of that market is overbought based on BB, RSI and Stochastik.
Targets:
1. Middle bollinger Band
2.Upsloping red shorter term trendline
3. Longer term red trend line, and 100 day MA and lower BB (all similar area). --> big support
4. 200 day MA (yellow)
OPEC meeting, breakout of triangleMarket has been narrowing awaiting the OPEC meeting. Trading volume has declined going into tighter trading ranges (red triangle). This is a great example for a symmetric triangle. Breakout direction to be determined.
Also, the greater picture shows a slowing uptrend leading into a very long term triangle. Patience is required.
My bias would be leading to the downside breakout following the OPEC meeting, but I will wait and see.
Either way once braking out I am looking into getting into some short put or call spreads depending on direction
Loonie H1 - wait for pullback to ICEIt seems we had more complex distribution schematic than expected. After FOMC USDCAD is going down. Strategy would be to wait for pullback to ICE and if "no demand" or upthrust, take a short.
Things point to 140 for now (2nd month continuation)Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies.
1x2 put spreads 10 to 15 cents wide for flat selling the 2 buying one over two month could be good IMHO
130 target areaLooking for 130 area as a target of the recent decline in coffee prices.
Overall uptrend as indicated in upsloping orange trendline hasn't been broken yet
Spreads are weak as well.
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread.
Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
Weighted Basket of 5 Agri Commoditeis - Hyperinflation Coming*EDIT in text quote on left of chart - *Synchronicity in between
I have created an equally weighted portfolio of 5 sustenance based commodities including Soybean, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Wheat, and Maize (continuous fwd contracts). This is an update to the first chart I have published (rough rice) which isn't updating for some reason but if you see the RR1! graph on another website you will see that my analysis is 100% on point so far and even identifies exact msp level prior to breakout. I am expecting sustenance based commodity hyperinflation in the coming years as we enter a macroeconomic environment that the economics textbooks have never described. The money manager commitment data points to breakout, technicals show clear range suppression and evident accumulation pointing to impeding breakout. Global trade statistics are abysmal, statistics of subprime/consumer debt/corporate debt delinquencies are abysmal, PE ratios of leading equity markets are abysmal. I do not wish for this to happen because this will affect billions of people but this is most likely what is going to happen. Best of luck.
