Cloud Marking Bullish for SPYSPY has turned bullish and should hold above 278 during this market consolidation based on solid Span B that has been tested and held. Based on futures markets, we could see an opening tomorrow (5/7/2020) around the low 283 mark. Assuming no crazy news comes out tomorrow to drive markets back down to test the 278 level we should see prices rise to the 287 levels which will put us solidly in the 38% fib extension level. Getting the price above the daily Tenkan we could see 291 on Friday. I don't expect any kind of crazy rallies though (unless something big happens in the pharma world) with implied volatility falling to 0.31.
With many states freeing up their economies we should continue to see the bull market, though it won't be explosive it would take a serious blow to get us into bear territory again (at least as far as cloud trading is concerned)
Game plan would be to do some OTM put verticals in the low 280 mark and pick up some long call options. I refuse right now to hold beyond the weekend (call me crazy) so May 8th contracts are my play but your risk profile may allow for farther out contracts.
Also planning on going long on some /ES futures. Will watch how the market runs over night but game planning a buy in at the TK cross on the 15 min chart which looks like will be in the 2850 range and will hold through 2865 with stop at 2840.
Ichimoku_trader
ICHIMOKU P-WAVE XRP BULLISH SCENARIO BULL MOVE
Since a P-Wave is a continuation pattern this is a potential move to the upside between 24-30 cents max before a drop at resistance we've failed multiple times to sustain about 30 cents. If we can get back into 30 cent range and hold we can get a move back into 34-40 cent range.
BEAR MOVE
Now this is where things get tricky. Even though a P-Wave is a continuation pattern this can change using the ichimoku time and wave theory together. When price falls on an ichimoku cycle number chances of a reversal can happen. The next ichimoku number falls on May 20th. Bearish move will be making lower lows into the 5-8 cent range.
Conclusion
Looking for price to break clean outside of the P-Wave to determine which direction market with move. These are very strong breaks.
btc longterm analysisHello folks!
Today will see the expiry of 49,400 BTC worth of outstanding derivative contracts. This is equivalent to $328 million in Bitcoin open interest.
Surely a return to volatility yeah!
Let's see tuesday where the market close but I have already an idea...
Fans are typically drawn from changes in trend or reversal points such as tops or bottoms and are a good way to measure a market's trend or strength. During an uptrend, if price stays in the space above an ascending angle without breaking below it, the market is considered bullish . During a downtrend, if price remains below a descending angle without breaking above it, the market is considered bearish .
It's a powerful indicator and it becomes even more powerful if you combine it with another powerful indicator like Ichimoku
I have done a lot of good shorts from the beginning of the month.
Let's take a look at the weekly chart with ichimoku >>>>
btc longterm analysis weekly with IchimokuFurther analysis of monthly chart. We saw that at the start of the month the prices broke the bullish Gann fan trendline (red circle).
The prices are below the cloud which means that we are more bearish but we await a confirmation of the Ichimoku lagging span which has already made a first contact with the gann fan bullish trendline (pink circle) .
After this first contact we see the price and the lagging span which are recovering in buying force, which is a rather natural reaction with Ichimoku^^
But, the cloud twist (green circle) tells us that there is a high probability that the price move inside a big range.
Feeling reinforced by the last two weekly candles (blue circle) (see the closing in a few hours) which make a big wick on the tenkan and the kijun aligned.
in this case we will see the lagging span confirm and come out of the cloud so that the prices head towards the bottom of the range (around $3500)
GBPJPY Type 1 Breakout + 244 Pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 127.87
Stop = 128.22 (plus spread)
Risk = 35 pips (plus spread)
Profit target = 125.49 (the daily projected low)
Reward = 244 Pips
RRR = 6.97
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you
Have a great week.
Allen
EURUSD BEARISH I am looking for a SELL on EURUSD. Price is below the cloud, chikou span is below the cloud, price is in consolidation at the moment but a break of support will carry price further. If the trend does happen to change, I will be looking for buys when price breaks the cloud to the upside and my resistance area at 1.12326. Overall I have a bearish sentiment
GBPAUD and GBPNZD Documneted 17 Reverse TradesToday we had a correlated down move in the GBP pairs as The Bank of England cut their interest rate.
This set up our 17 Reverse trades:
GBPAUD was the next to last to trigger and had a 17 pip draw down and was good for + 53 pips while
GBPNZD was the last to trigger (our preferred choice) and had a draw down of only 9 pips and was great for +128 Pips
Allen
GBPNZD Documented Type 1 Trade + 69 Pip PotentialThe above is the documented Type 1 Trade on GBPNZD pursuant to the Gold Method Ichimoku:
We had all 4 Horseman aligned and it was a good solid trade to end the week.
Allen
Since I was sick last week and have not caught up with documenting those trades, I have not filled in the spreadsheet as it is POA to enter data out of order, and done a weekly review.
I anticipate being caught up by next week and will make the post accordingly.
GBPNZD SS Long + 75 Pip PotentialPrice is above the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 2.0303
Stop = 2.0278
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 2.0378 (the daily projected high)
Reward = 75 Pips
RRR = 3 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Have a Great week!!!
Allen
EURNZD Post news trade set-up + 100 Pip PotentialWe had a good push down on the NZD Interest Rate decision and this pair has now gone into a consolidation between 1.6941 (High) and 1.6857 (Low). Moreover, it is now below the Daily, 60 and 15 min KS, as well as the 15 cloud.
Entry = 1.6920
Stop = 1.6940
Risk = 20 pips
Profit target = 1.6820
Reward = 100 Pips
RRR = 5-1
Once this trade is up + 20 pips, move your stop to breakeven and let it run.
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Allen
GBPAUD SS Short + 97 Pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 1.9228
Stop = 1.9253
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.9131 (the daily projected low)
Reward = + 97 Pips
RRR = 3.88 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Have a Great week!!!
Allen