btc longterm analysisHello folks!
Today will see the expiry of 49,400 BTC worth of outstanding derivative contracts. This is equivalent to $328 million in Bitcoin open interest.
Surely a return to volatility yeah!
Let's see tuesday where the market close but I have already an idea...
Fans are typically drawn from changes in trend or reversal points such as tops or bottoms and are a good way to measure a market's trend or strength. During an uptrend, if price stays in the space above an ascending angle without breaking below it, the market is considered bullish . During a downtrend, if price remains below a descending angle without breaking above it, the market is considered bearish .
It's a powerful indicator and it becomes even more powerful if you combine it with another powerful indicator like Ichimoku
I have done a lot of good shorts from the beginning of the month.
Let's take a look at the weekly chart with ichimoku >>>>
Ichimoku_trader
btc longterm analysis weekly with IchimokuFurther analysis of monthly chart. We saw that at the start of the month the prices broke the bullish Gann fan trendline (red circle).
The prices are below the cloud which means that we are more bearish but we await a confirmation of the Ichimoku lagging span which has already made a first contact with the gann fan bullish trendline (pink circle) .
After this first contact we see the price and the lagging span which are recovering in buying force, which is a rather natural reaction with Ichimoku^^
But, the cloud twist (green circle) tells us that there is a high probability that the price move inside a big range.
Feeling reinforced by the last two weekly candles (blue circle) (see the closing in a few hours) which make a big wick on the tenkan and the kijun aligned.
in this case we will see the lagging span confirm and come out of the cloud so that the prices head towards the bottom of the range (around $3500)
GBPJPY Type 1 Breakout + 244 Pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 127.87
Stop = 128.22 (plus spread)
Risk = 35 pips (plus spread)
Profit target = 125.49 (the daily projected low)
Reward = 244 Pips
RRR = 6.97
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you
Have a great week.
Allen
EURUSD BEARISH I am looking for a SELL on EURUSD. Price is below the cloud, chikou span is below the cloud, price is in consolidation at the moment but a break of support will carry price further. If the trend does happen to change, I will be looking for buys when price breaks the cloud to the upside and my resistance area at 1.12326. Overall I have a bearish sentiment
GBPAUD and GBPNZD Documneted 17 Reverse TradesToday we had a correlated down move in the GBP pairs as The Bank of England cut their interest rate.
This set up our 17 Reverse trades:
GBPAUD was the next to last to trigger and had a 17 pip draw down and was good for + 53 pips while
GBPNZD was the last to trigger (our preferred choice) and had a draw down of only 9 pips and was great for +128 Pips
Allen
GBPNZD Documented Type 1 Trade + 69 Pip PotentialThe above is the documented Type 1 Trade on GBPNZD pursuant to the Gold Method Ichimoku:
We had all 4 Horseman aligned and it was a good solid trade to end the week.
Allen
Since I was sick last week and have not caught up with documenting those trades, I have not filled in the spreadsheet as it is POA to enter data out of order, and done a weekly review.
I anticipate being caught up by next week and will make the post accordingly.
GBPNZD SS Long + 75 Pip PotentialPrice is above the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 2.0303
Stop = 2.0278
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 2.0378 (the daily projected high)
Reward = 75 Pips
RRR = 3 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Have a Great week!!!
Allen
EURNZD Post news trade set-up + 100 Pip PotentialWe had a good push down on the NZD Interest Rate decision and this pair has now gone into a consolidation between 1.6941 (High) and 1.6857 (Low). Moreover, it is now below the Daily, 60 and 15 min KS, as well as the 15 cloud.
Entry = 1.6920
Stop = 1.6940
Risk = 20 pips
Profit target = 1.6820
Reward = 100 Pips
RRR = 5-1
Once this trade is up + 20 pips, move your stop to breakeven and let it run.
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Allen
GBPAUD SS Short + 97 Pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 1.9228
Stop = 1.9253
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.9131 (the daily projected low)
Reward = + 97 Pips
RRR = 3.88 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Have a Great week!!!
Allen
GBPAUD SS Short + 198 Pip PotentialPrice is below the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
2 Potential entries. If the PB is triggered first, then the BO entry is cancelled. It is not an add on position.
PB Entry = 1.9261
Stop =1.9286
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.9063 ( The daily projected low )
Reward = 198 Pips
RRR = 7.92-1
BO Entry = 1.9183
Stop = 1.9208
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.9063 (the daily projected low)
Reward = 120 Pips
RRR = 4.8 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you
Allen
EURAUD Post News Trade Short + 100 Pip PotentialWe had a good push down on the AUD Interest Rate decision and this pair has now gone into a consolidation between 1.64752 (High) and 1.64418 (Low). Moreover, it is now below the 60 and 15 min KS, as well as the 15 cloud.
Entry = 1.6474
Stop = 1.6494
Risk = 20 pips
Profit target = 1.6374
Reward = 100 Pips
RRR = 5-1
Once this trade is up + 20 pips, move your stop to breakeven and let it run.
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you
Have a great week!!
Allen
BTCUSD - Chikou Span for the Bullish case, heading into $8550BTC is currently in interesting position. Using Ichimoku system we can trade and take bullish scenario into consideration.
If we observe current location of Chikou Span breakout outside the cloud was clear.
The bullish can be made with another breakout above $8550 resistance, otherwise Chikou Span will cross inside the price which means prolonged consolidation and bearish scenario (price heading outside the cloud).
Uptrend is valid until $7800 zone breaks and Kijun is at $8000 where heavy support is expected.
Great market to trade at the moment with a lot of tension from both buyers and sellers.
GBPCAD SS Long + 78 Pip PotentialPrice is above the Daily, 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. All of our 4 Horseman are aligned. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 1.7313
Stop = 1.7293
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.7391 (Daily Senkou A)
Reward = 78 Pips
RRR = 3 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you.
Have a Great Weekend!!!
Allen
The Gold Method Ichimoku Weekly ReviewHere is the Weekly review for the week of January 20th through the 24th:
Another strange week as the GBP pairs remained in a consolidation.
We only took one trade, which was a failed breakout on GBPAUD on Monday for a loss of -27.6 pips.
Recognizing and adapting to the current market conditions we became more selective with our trades. By doing so we avoided taking three more losses this week and you can never discount the benefit of not putting a hole in your account.
Moreover, we did have 2 trades that came close but did not reach our entry and therefore were invalidated. A huge benefit of using specific entries is that it allows us to have a small stop loss and hence a larger position based (based on risk%). The downside is sometimes, like this week, we will miss trades.
So there it is, the first losing week for the Gold Method Ichimoku since we started.
Consolidation is followed by expansion, market fact!!
Stay Green my friends,
Allen
The Gold Method Ichimoku Weekly ReviewThis week tested our patience and discipline in the Trade room for The Gold Method Ichimoku.
Here is a day by day breakdown:
Monday, we passed on both a breakout trade and a MA trade, both of which made money. However, despite the potential result the decision to stay out based on the market conditions at the time was correct.
Tuesday, we had a very nice Type 1 Break out trade on GBPNZD which was good for 26 pips.
Wednesday, we took a news/MA trade in GBPJPY that we closed flat.
Thursday, we had a Type 1 Breakout trade in GBPCHF which quickly jumped up 10 pips, but then unfortunately failed.
Friday, While we got teased with a couple of potential trades before UK retail sales, we got a News/MA trade in GBPJPY after that went for 45 Pips. ( I closed my position flat as did some others). However several traders who needed the trade to get above their BFV stayed in and accomplished the goal. Well Done!!!
Sincerely,
Allen Gold
Since I have had several more traders inquire about the book and I hate to turn people away, if you are interested in the book, please send me an email at FXGOLD54@gmail.com
GBPCAD SS Long 75 Pip PotentialPrice is above the 60 and 15 KS as well as the cloud. This is a Type 1 trade with a High probability and good RRR.
BO Entry = 1.7077
Stop = 1.7052
Risk = 25 pips
Profit target = 1.7177
Reward = 75 Pips
RRR = 3 - 1
I would appreciate if you leave a comment or like as a thank you
Have a Great Weekend!!!
Allen