Zillow is a falling knifeOver the weekend it was reported ZILLOW PAUSES HOME PURCHASES AS SNAGS HIT TECH-POWERED FLIPPING
For those not familiar with NASDAQ:Z 's recent business model they have been on a buying frenzy no doubt fueled by low interest credit to give home sellers fast cash offers on houses based on prices that Zillow determines via their machine learning algorithms. It is a bold strategy Cotton; let's see if it pays off! That buying which has been going on unabated for months with ever rising prices seems to have hit a dip.
I would not call this the "top of the housing market" by any means but it is a data point we can refer back to should the future prove it to be a top.
Technically speaking the chart of Zillow is not pretty. I was long Zillow on the 50% Retracement over the summer but abandoned the position as it solidly broke the level. I am content to be out as it grinds lower from a risk management perspective. This is yet another reason to not baghold.
I would look for signs of reversal to perhaps get back in at a future time but right now price action on the broader trend is in no-man's land.
Ichimoku Cloud
Seeing Price Fractals with IchimokuIt is always interesting to see the fractal nature of price action. It is the way that price tends to have very similar patterns on multiple timeframes. You see these repeating patterns in nature and they are expressed by mathematics in such ways as the Mandelbrot set.
Over the last few weeks the AMEX:SPY has been riding along the lower edge of the Daily timeframe Ichimoku cloud. Basic Ichimoku principles use the cloud to determine the sentiment of price from bullish to bearish. However, I make sure to add one confirmation test to my analysis of Ichimoku. I look at Chikou, otherwise known as the Lagging Span or Momentum, to see which side of the cloud it is on. This very often avoids false breakouts and gives a patient assessment of the true nature of what price is doing. What may seem to be a trend reversal may only be a pullback. If Chikou does not confirm price then I assume price interacting with the cloud is just a major pullback.
That the market has done a major pullback seems to now be confirmed on the Daily timeframe. The interesting repetition of this pattern happened this morning on the 5m S&P 500 futures /ES charts. See below:
Bullish TK cross: Long IN50USD (M30)Daily and H4 Charts: Strong bullish momentum
M30: Looking for re-entry opportunity.
Buy conditions:
1) Bullish TK cross above kumo
2) Stochastic and MACD gold cross as an additional confirmation
3) SSA points upward and makes a new high
Chikou Span Breakout: Long HK33HKD (M30)Daily Chart: Price closed above Kijun.
Within the next few days, a bullish bias is expected.
M30: Long re-entry opportunity.
Buy conditions:
1) Chikou > price
2) All Ichimoku signs are bullish
3) Tenkan + Kijun + SSA + SSB + 200 EMA are all pointing upwards
4) Price > 200 EMA
200 EMA Retest: Long JP225USD (H4)I took a long trade at the break of 200 EMA (candlestick highlighted in black) last week.
The price has come to retest the 200 EMA again. Look for re-entry opportunity.
Buy conditions:
1) All Ichimoku signs are bullish
2) Wait for price to close above Tenkan with a bullish candle for re-entry
3) SSA is making a new high
4) Chikou span > kumo (indicates mid to long term bullish momentum)
Strong Bullish Kumo Twist: Long NZDUSD (M30)Daily and H4 Charts: Strong bullish momentum
M30: Looking for re-entry opportunity
Buy conditions:
1) All Ichimoku signs are bullish
2) Bullish kumo twist was the signal
3) A buy stop order was placed at the high of the bullish spinning top candle (this is the spot where Tenkan + Kijun + SSA + SSB began to point upwards)
4) Price > 200 EMA which points upwards
Resistance testing: Long EURJPY (M30)Price is approaching a minor resistance. Hence, some profit taking is expected and price may range for a while before taking off.
Daily and H4 Charts: Strong bullish momentum
M30: Re-entry opportunity
Buy conditions:
1) All Ichimoku signs are bullish
2) Price > 200 EMA which is pointing upward
3) Tenkan + Kijun + SSA + SSB are all pointing upward
4) SSA is making a new high and future kumo is getting thicker
AUDJPY continuously on bullish trend by IchimokuComment:
AUDJPY Daily chart shows continuously bullish trend as per below Ichimoku Trend Analysis.
Ichimoku Trend Analysis:
- Kumo (Senko span A and B) up
- Kijun sen up
- Tenkan sen up
- Chiko span above candles
Next Scenario:
Market is near previous resistance from this May and June. Better to wait for the breakout as it could be resisted once and may continue to go up.
EURJPY continuously uptrend by IchimokuComment:
EURJPY Daily chart shows a continuous uptrend after breaking the previous high at 132.710.
Ichimoku Trend Analysis:
- Kumo (Senko span A and B) are up
- Kijun sen up
- Tenkan sen up
- Chiko span above candles
Next Scenario:
The market has been up for the last 9 days but since Kumo is very thin, it could retrace once market reaches the previous resistance at 133.663 level.
FTM breakout imminentFTM has been in limbo today, and it seems that it wants to pick up where it ended yesterday. we are currently at a breakout level.
1H
Ichimoku cloud:
The Kijun and Tenkan lines are above the (green) cloud, and very close to each other. i'm expecting a cross within the next few hours. The cross above the cloud is a strong bullish signal.
Bollinger bands:
The price touched the upper band, but did not close there. this indicates that the upward movement will probably see continuation.
RSI:
RSI is 51 now, so there is plenty of room to push the price up. Because the market is pretty bullish, i'd say RSI is acceptable up to 70.
Volume:
The Volume is slowly getting less and less, indicating that there will be a move. daily close in 30 minutes. let's see what happens.
I hope you enjoyed my analysis and i would love to get you feedback and discuss.
Cheers,
Mike
ETH/USD, W, Ichimoku, Fib LevelsLines of wedge drawn from Daily level: Upper from ATH, lower from Jan.
Verticals (Eyes) are on the 27 Oct update, and where the wedge terminates - right around the estimated update to 2.0 sometime around May.
Smiley just for fun.
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Previous chart a couple weeks ago looked like we'd be going down a bit closer to Kumo before this next update. Moved up instead (probably from anticipation), and got the bonk at the top of the wedge. We'll see what happens these next couple weeks.
-Recent volume looks low compared to the rest of the year. Seems a lot of folks are waiting.
-Fib levels look like they're starting to squeeze in a bit, though still generally upwards & parallel. Seems like it needs a good pinch before really opening up.
-MACD & RSI both looking like they want to turn down, but could do like last week. Again, we'll see how this update goes.
-Overall these indicators look sideways, hinting slightly down. We've got a nice Kumo shelf going on, though, so there should be plenty support.
Unless something incredibly positive or negative happens, it still looks like a chill ride to 2.0 :)
Kumo Breakout: Short EURUSD (H1)Sell conditions:
1) Bearish TK cross
2) Chikou < Price
3) Price < Kumo
4) Price < 200 EMA
5) SSB + Tenkan + Kijun all point downward
It seems like the 200 EMA is in the midst of pointing down. It is probably an indication that a new downtrend is coming up. Since the 200 EMA is relatively flat, it may take a while before the downtrend can kick in.
Kumo Breakout: Long CADCHF (M30)I am using the corrected Ichimoku indicator in my MT4.
According to my corrected Ichimoku indicator, we just had a bullish TK cross.
Daily and H4 Charts: Strong bullish bias
Buy conditions:
1) Price > Kumo
2) Bullish TK cross
3) Price > 200 EMA which slopes upwards
4) Chikou span > price and kumo
5) Additional confirmation from Stochastic and MACD gold cross
Bullish TK cross: Long GBPJPY (M30)The chart shown on TV is different from mine because I am using a different Ichimoku indicator. The Ichimoku indicator that we have in TV and MT4/5 has a slightly different displacement from mine. It is actually 1 period ahead of mine and therefore, the Ichimoku indicator that we have are actually inaccurate.
On my chart (M30), TK cross at the exact candle that I took my long entry.
If you had followed using TV's Ichimoku signal, you would have taken the long entry a few candlesticks ago.
Buy conditions:
1) Bullish TK cross > kumo
2) Price > 200 EMA which is pointing upward
3) Beware of upcoming double top resistance as seen on daily chart.
Kumo Breakout: Long USDJPY (M30)Daily chart and H4 Chart: Bullish momentum
Buy conditions:
1) Kumo breakout.
2) Price > 200 EMA
3) The kumo breakout took place 4 candles ago. Unfortunately, there wasn't any bullish TK cross and so the trade wasn't taken then. In the next candle, we will see the bullish TK cross. However, I am taking the long trade now as the Chikou span has just crossed the price and the cloud.
4) SL is set at Senkou span B and it would be used as a trailing SL.
Fractal Breakout: Short EURAUD (H1) - Re-entryDaily Chart: Bearish
H4 Chart: Bearish
H1 Chart: Looking for re-entry opportunities to add on to winning positions.
1) Price broke through the most recent fractal.
2) Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and B are all pointing downward.
3) SL at the most recent fractal.
4) Exit based on your trading strategies - Kijun break, bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross, or trailing SL based on ATR.
Kijun Bounce: Long XAUUSD (M30)Daily Chart: Price is touching the 200 EMA and thus, it is encountering resistance now.
This is a re-entry signal on M30.
Buy conditions:
1) Bullish spinning top sitting on the Kijun.
2) All Ichimoku signs are bullish. Although some may argue that the entry could have been taken a few candles ago instead of now, my reply is that Chikou span wasn't free back then. Now, Chikou span is free in open space.
3) SL at Senkou span B.
4) I will be trailing my SL using Senkou span B.
Do not enter with large lot size since price is facing resistance by 200 EMA on daily chart.