Tension building up for BTC, how to move forward.We have seen huge swings lately and BTC has been ranging for the past weeks. The range has been long enough that it now is entering a phase where we can get a squeeze inside a trend line triangle. My expectation is that BTC will break out to the upside to enter Kumo Cloud, I estimate that because BTC has been pushing against it and not respecting the resistance alot.
When it does break out and stay in the kumo for a couple of days my execution would be to put a limit order at the Kumo Cloud bottom which now will have become support. I expect BTC to test the top of the cloud in the future espacialy as it also is an area of resistance based on past price action. If the market starts to go bearish this thesis is no longer valid and that is wy stop loss would be at the level where I think we confirm market is going bearish.
In a bearish situation I will not open any position at all as we are in a very discounted area for BTC and if we can learn one thing from the past it is that BTC has made it's most respectable increases in value after a period of consolidation -50% below it's ATH at that time.
The Ichimoku on this chart has settings: 20,60,120,30. This is because I see many people use this setting on crypto. This setting is good because with crypto being very volatile a longer length Ichimoku can help in having a clear view on the market while standard ichimoku does clutter the chart in the crypto space. However, it is good as an ichimoku trader to consult both the standard and the edited version.
Ichimokukinkohyo
USDJPY broke Daily P wave and continuously bullishComment:
USDJPY broke the Daily P wave and looking bullish as per Ichimoku trend confirmation.
Ichimoku Trend Analysis:
- Kumo (Senko span A and B) up
- Kijun sen up
- Tenkan sen up
- Chiko span above candles
Next Scenario:
The market may retrace back to 116.34 level, then continue to be bullish.
🔔dxy Will it be ready for downtrend ? The trend line is broken and we expect correction, but we must be careful, this correction is not much.
Enter into a deal with a minimum loss.
🙏If you have an idea that helps me provide a better analysis, I will be happy to write in the comments🙏
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
CENSOF STARTING TO TREND UP?1. Tenkansen above Kijunsen (Crossing happened on 4/2)
2. Price above both spanlines and leaving to hover above cloud
3. Chikou Span out of cloud as expected
4. Buyers in control the past three sessions
5. The above reflect buyer confidence which is also boosted by a positive quarter results. Looking at all the signs, Censof can be seen as starting to trend up.
SYSTECH ON UPTREND1. Tenkansen above Kijunsen
2. Price above both Tenkansen and Kijunsen
3. Systech completed Fibo levels of 61.8% @ 0.30, now it may retrace back to the 100% mark of 0.375 achieved in June 2021
4. Buyers still in control.
5. Volume building up with forward Kumo bullish.
6. Chiko span heading away from price line
BTC/USDToday could be a very crucial daily candle close for BTC.
Note that if this daily candle closes ABOVE the Descending Trend-line, it will also close ABOVE the Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 day timeframe.
Note that if/when BTC closes a daily candle ABOVE the BB Middle Band Basis, it will be the first time it has done so since the 27th December 2021.
If/when BTC closes a daily candle ABOVE the Descending Trend-line then a successful re-test as support will be crucial for continued upwards momentum and proof that the bottom has now been and gone. Failure to close a daily candle ABOVE the Descending Trend-line will result in more downside momentum.
BTCUSD Bird's eyes view by IchimokuIt's often a good idea to take some height and look at the market in a longer perspective. One of the unique strength of the Ichimoku System is the ability to easily do multi-timeframe analysis with a really strong level of precision. So let's just do that today with the BTCUSD.
Looking at the Monthly chart here, we can see how strong was the level of resistance given by the Monthly Kijun Sen (purple line) for three consecutive months last year, in May, June and July, and this year in January and until today. So far, the price never crossed that level to the downside. As a reminder the Kijun Sen is the mid-price of the last 26 periods, so 26 months in that case. It is very significant.
Still in the Monthly timeframe, we can also see that the correction was made with 3 consecutive red candles. After 3 red candles, usually comes a blue one in that kind of setup. It may happen this month, or latter.
Now, going down a bit to the lower time frame, the Weekly chart, we can do the same observation. The price never crossed the confluence of the three Monthly Kijun sen (dotted purple line). So on this timeframe which represent the medium term, we can see that we are not (yet) in a bear market as some might have claimed.
Weekly Chart:
Yet, the BTCUSD is not out of the woods. Still on the weekly timeframe, the price is in the Cloud (= neutrality). Only if/when the price will break the Cloud on the upside AND the that the Lagging Span confirms by being above the price then we'll be able to tell that the current correction is over on this timeframe.
Overall, the way I see the BTCUSD (and most other Cryptos) is that we had a major correction, that the market found important level of support from where it could rally. Only if these levels breaks that we'll enter a medium term bear market on this asset. Now, we can only talk about a correction.
For today's BTC analysis, you can hop to:
You can ask me in the comment below for my view on a specific pair, indices, stock, crypto. I'll try to oblige if times permit , but no promises ;)
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. **
ETHUSD trying to break the Daily KijunETHUSD is trying to break its Daily KS. We will have to wait today closing for a confirmation. In that case, the next targets and level of resistance are formed by the Daily and then Weekly KS above.
You can ask me in the comment below for my view on a specific pair, indices, stock, crypto. I'll try to oblige if times permit , but no promises ;)
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. **
BTC still neutral by IchimokuBTC, the price is still between the Monthly KS and the Daily KS = Neutral.
Breaking the DLY KS at @ 38730 will be positive signal for the Bitcoin. Next level of resistance are marked by the Daily KS in extension above (blue dotted lines).
The Monthly KS is still a strong support level.
You can ask me in the comment below for my view on a specific pair, indices, stock, crypto. I'll try to oblige if times permit , but no promises ;)
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. **
GBPUSD Weekly Kijun Sen breakoutGBPUSD is breaking two Kijun levels, the Daily KS and the Weekly KS (green line). The Lagging Span (orange circle) still has to cross a Weekly KS level as well.
On confirmation, next logical target will be the recent high at 1.3750. GBP pairs in general have a strong potential for a durable bullish trend.
Tomorrow BOE monetary policy, expect volatility.
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. **
DXY possible end of correction and next target levelDXY, after 3 red candles of correction, the price is bouncing on the double support formed by the Monthly and Daily Kijun Sen.
The Lagging Span will confirm the rally by breaking it's Kijun Sen, along with the price that will also break the same level.
Next potential target zone, formed by the MLY Kijun Sen and the previous high, marked by the green box on this Daily Chart.
You can ask me in the comment below for my view on a specific pair, indices, stock, crypto. I'll try to oblige if times permit , but no promises ;)
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. **
DXY potential for correctionAfter reaching a Monthly Kijun Sen level, the DXY we can expect a correction phase for this week. That would mean that all pairs in USD could be affected by a weaker US Dollar on the short term at least.
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
The Complete Guide Into The World of IndicatorsGood time of the day, traders! As you can tell from a pretty self-explanatory name, this is our last and full review on all of the most useful indicators available for public use. The first two parts are linked to this post and now we’re going to take a look at our last 3 indicators.
The Williams Percent Range, commonly known as the Williams Percent R, is a momentum indicator that displays where the most recent closing price is in relation to the highest and lowest prices during a specified time period. William’s percent R is an oscillator that notifies you whether a currency pair is "overbought" or "oversold." Consider it a more sensitive and less popular form of Stochastic. It has RSI-like characteristics as a momentum indicator since it evaluates the strength of a current trend. Traders, on the other hand, utilize percent R's extreme values (-20 and -80) for clues, whereas RSI employs its mid-point number (50) to gauge trend strength.
It might be useful to judge the strength of a trend, independent of its direction, while trading. When it comes to determining the strength of a trend, the Average Directional Index is a widely used technical indicator. Another type of oscillator is the Average Directional Index, or ADX for short. The ADX is a trend indicator that ranges from 0 to 100, with values below 20 suggesting a weak trend and readings above 50 indicating a strong trend. The ADX formula is complex, but in a word, the greater the ADX, the stronger the trend. When the ADX is low, it signals that the price is likely to move laterally or trade in a range. When the ADX rises above 50, it means that the price is gaining momentum in one direction. In contrast to Stochastic, ADX does not indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish. Rather, it only assesses the present trend's strength. As a result, ADX is frequently used to determine if the market is range or beginning a new trend. The ADX is a "non-directional" indicator. It is based on comparing the highs and lows of bars, rather than the bar's closure. Regardless of whether the trend is up or down, the greater the reading, the stronger the trend.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) is a price momentum indicator that forecasts future levels of support and resistance. Ichimoku may be used to any tradeable asset in any time frame. (Originally, it was used to exchange rice) In both rising and declining markets, Ichimoku can be utilised. Do not use Ichimoku where is not an obvious trend and market is choppy. Pro-tip: Ichimoku works the best for JPY pairs.
Honestly, while writing about Ichimoku (which I used every day couple years ago), I realized that it’s a very large topic by itself. So, leave a comment, if you guys want more details on how to set it up and use it. As per usual, have a great trading week, fam!
BTC/USD - Ascending TriangleHere is a quick BTC 4hr Chart update.
At the moment, BTC is in an Ascending Triangle Pattern on this 4hr timeframe. An Ascending Triangle Pattern is a potential Bullish Continuation Pattern.
At the moment, BTC is above its Bollinger Bands Middle Bands Basis 20 period SMA on this 4hr timeframe.
At the moment, BTC is above its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 4hr timeframe.
At the moment, BTC is back in the Bullish Zone of the Ichhimoku Cloud back above its Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) resistance Level on this 4hr timeframe.
At the moment, BTC is back above its Volume Profile Fixed Range Point of Control (VPFR POC) for the fixed range of 11x 4hr candles that i have selected.
At the moment, the MACD Line is still above the 0.0 Base Line in the Positive Zone and is also still above its Signal Line on this 4hr timeframe.
For the upside, be on the lookout for a successful break ABOVE the Horizontal Resistance Line of the Ascending Triangle and any successful re-test as support. For the downside, be on the lookout for a break BELOW the Ascending Support Line of the Ascending Triangle and any successful re-test as resistance.
It should be an interesting couple of hours.
EURUSD still bearish but with a potential retracementEURUSD is still bearish on the WLY Timeframe. Last week the price closed at the level of a previous Kijun Sen Weekly in extension, thanks to Ichimoku you can really spot this levels that otherwise would look like the price stoped in the middle of nowhere..
Now this level is worked and with a weaker DXY (see ) we're probably looking at some correction, maybe to the DLY TS or KS, before resuming with the overall downtrend.
Two possible Target Profit level are market in the chart, the first one the next support formed by a WLY KS/SSB in extension.
An invalidation of this scenario would be if the price breaks the DLY KS upwards.
Here's the WLY Chart showing the overall downtrend in regards to the Ichimoku System :
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
USDCHF the Lagging Span at a strong levelFollowing the DXY analysis (), the Lagging Span is a it's SSB level on the Weekly Timeframe. If the Lagging Span is refused to pass, a correction to the Weekly TS or KS is likely.
A breaking of that level and after confirmation, the next Target would be the Monthly KS as marked on the chart.
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
CHFJPY still bullishCHFJPY is still bullish based on the Ichimoku analysis. On this Weekly chart we can clearly see that the Cloud is still uptrending and the Lagging Span is well above the price.
The price have been retracing last week and could retrace up to the Weekly Kijun Sen, from which we can expect a bounce to the upside to resume the overall uptrend. If the market breaks that level, the Cloud would be the ultimate support.
In the following Daily chart, we see that the price is trying to cross the Cloud by a thin passage. Crossing the cloud will active the target to the WLY KS as mentioned above.
The medium/long term TP is the previous high back from June 2015 as shown in the following Monthly chart:
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
Crude Oil near a resistance levelWTIUSD, Price are close to a major resistance level formed by a Monthly SSB in extension. OPEC Inventories this Wednesday, reaction is to be expected.
Glossary :
TS = Tenkan Sen | KS = Kijun Sen | LS = Lagging Span/Chikou Span
DLY = Daily | WLY = Weekly | MLY = Monthly
TL = Trend Line | TP = Take Profit | SL/ INV = Stop Loss / Invalidation | TF = Timeframe
** THIS ANALYSIS IS MY OWN OPINION AND IS NOT A TRADING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE. ALWAYS TRADE WITH CARE **
Prices stuck in a long term compression ?Ichimoku PoV :
Prices are neutral, on a mid and long term vision. Stuck in their Daily and Weekly Clouds.
As first support, we can identeify the Weekly Kijun, at $1779.
Followed by another strong support which is the Monthly Kijun at $1763.
As a resistance, the Daily Kijun and flat Daily SSB are both a high level to break to give a first bullish signal and to go back to test the top of this compression.
This long term range will be interesting to follow during 2022 !