Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...
Speculation only. Will Icosa return back in it´s LOG View Pattern? Hex is gaining through Pulsechain Launch. Price will push HDRN and ICSA against HEX which grows against USD. Multiple X possible. Maybe x10 in 4 Month?
The maximium FRED:ICSA since 1967 has not been more than 1m weekly (not even during 2008 or 2001), now in 2020 the US is at 6m per week (see FRED data here: fred.stlouisfed.org).
in last 20 years we had 2 "signals" and you all know how it ended. Is 50% drop on the way? Share your thoughts in a comments.
It's a very long view, so It may take some time but i think it will happen. I do not recommend to buy equity at this point and looking for sell opportunity. We need to wait for conformation on MA's cross.
Today's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as...
Watch the cross here. Note the extremely close match to the overall stock market, and how this LEADS recessions. This data has a few small false signals going back to the 60's, but it has properly led every recession regardless of that fact. If you combine this signal with something simple like yield curve inversion, you would get one of the easiest and best...
Unemployment data is clearly one of if not the most important data sets when it comes to predicting a recession. With unemployment at very long term lows, when does this break, and what happens when it does? For me, I watch exponential moving average crossovers in unemployment data. Initial claims works if you smooth it out (it's a high frequency data series)....
FX:USDCHF - Support at the 0.38 Fibonacci Retrancement level - On the final shoulder of the three month inverse head and shoulders pattern Stop Lost: 0.9650 Entry : 0.97300 Limit : 1.0300 Risk to reward : ~6.8