EURJPY Bulls in Trouble? Massive Rejection Signals📉 Full Multi-Factor Analysis – EUR/JPY
🔍 1. Price Action
EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance.
Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle.
Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area.
The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum.
➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00.
💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders
EUR Futures (CME)
Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830).
Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet.
JPY Futures
Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined.
The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips.
➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted.
📊 3. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86.
The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals.
➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding.
📈 4. Seasonality
June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish.
Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June.
➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month.
✅ Actionable Summary
📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish
📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50
📉 Extended Target: 160.00
📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60
🧠 Final Thoughts
All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY.
Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside.
Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
