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GBP/NZD Breakdown Imminent? Smart Money and Seasonality Say YES!🧠 1. Price Action & Technical Structure Price was firmly rejected from the monthly supply zone between 2.33 – 2.35, marked by strong bearish candles. A bounce occurred at the weekly demand between 2.20 – 2.22, where accumulation and a short-term reversal formed (dashed white arrow). Currently, price is trading near the lower bound of a compression range (2.22 – 2.26), sitting below a key intermediate resistance (dark teal zone). RSI is in the neutral-to-low zone, with no major divergence, leaving room for further downside. Technical Bias: Neutral to Bearish unless we get a weekly close above 2.26–2.27. 📊 2. COT Data GBP Asset Managers remain net short, though improving since January. Leveraged Money sharply reducing long exposure since early April → Institutional bullish sentiment weakening. NZD Asset Managers have been heavily short for over a year, but shorts are being reduced since February → slight sentiment recovery. Leveraged Money flat, with no clear long build-up yet. ➡️ Combined COT Outlook: The GBP's advantage over NZD is fading. This supports a sideways to slightly bearish outlook on GBP/NZD. 📅 3. Seasonality April: Historically bearish for GBP/NZD (–0.2971 avg.), aligning with current downward move. May: Also typically bearish (–0.2964 avg.) → suggesting potential continued weakness. ➡️ Seasonal Bias: Bearish through mid-to-late May. 🧠 4. Retail Sentiment Around 70% of retail traders are long GBP/NZD → classic contrarian bearish signal. Average long entry: 2.1800, current price: 2.2246 → many longs in profit. Potential for profit taking or breakeven pullback adds to bearish pressure. 📌 Trade Plan Summary Weekly Bias: → Bearish / Range-bound 📉 Short Zones of Interest: 2.26 – 2.27 → key resistance zone Stop above 2.2850 (H4/H1 close above invalidates setup) 🎯 Targets: 2.2050 → recent demand re-test 2.1850 / 2.1650 → deeper demand zones visible on chart 🧠 Invalidation Level: Daily close above 2.2850 → structure turns bullish
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
What is ICT FVG ? – ICT Fair Value Gap Explained Step by Step !ICT FVG knowns as Fair Value Gap, is a three-candle formation having an un-retraced area between the high and low of 1st and 3rd candlestick. A fair value gap is indicated by an imbalance and it acts as a level of support and resistance in the price chart. This blog post will teach you all about the ICT FVG from their formation to identification and their use in trading. You can jump to the section you are most interested in from below or can continue reading the whole article for better understanding. Table of Contents What is ICT FVG (Fair Value Gap)? How to Identify an ICT Fair Value Gap? Types of ICT FVG (I) Bullish Fair Value Gap (II) Bearish Fair Value Gap ICT FVG Trading Strategy Best Time Frame for ICT FVG Identification Best Pair for ICT FVG Trading Final Thoughts What is ICT FVG (Fair Value Gap)? ICT fair value gap is a three-candle structure indicating a gap between the high and low of 1st and 3rd candlestick. The gap between three candles is created because price does not retrace in that area and leaves it open. You can see the example of ICT FVG in the picture below : ICT FVG acts as a magnet for price and price retrace back to the fair value gap to balance the price delivery. After retracing to the FVG price then reverses and continues its trend . How to Identify an ICT Fair Value Gap ? To identify an ICT FVG, you need to look for a large candlestick with most body range. After identifying the large candlestick, mark the high of candlestick prior to the large candle and low of the subsequent candlestick . There will be a visible gap between the high and low of the two candlesticks which indicate the ICT fair value gap . Types of ICT FVG On the basis of price move the ICT FVG has two types which are explained below : (I) Bullish Fair Value Gap A bullish fair value gap in ICT terms appears during an uptrend with a three-candle pattern. It happens when the middle candle has a large body , leaving a gap between the high of the first candle and the low of the third candle . In an uptrend , a fair value gap can serve as strong support, with the price often retracing to fill the gap before moving higher . You can see the example of bullish fair value gap in the picture below : (II) Bearish Fair Value Gap A bearish fair value gap appears in a downtrend within a three-candle pattern. It forms when the middle candle has a large body, creating a gap between the low of the first candle and the high of the third candle . In bearish trend a fair value gap can act as a good resistance and mostly price tends to fill this gap before moving lower . You can see the example of bearish fair value gap in the picture below . ICT FVG Trading Strategy To trade using an ICT fair value gap, you need to go through below steps. Step 1 – Determine Market Trend: First of all we need to identify the market trend of any asset whether it is bullish or bearish. You can use ICT Daily Bias to anticipate the direction of price move. In bullish trend price makes higher highs and higher lows, while in bearish trend price makes lower lows and lower highs Step 2 – Identify Premium and Discount Zone: You would be looking for the premium fair value gap in bearish trend, while in bullish trend you would be looking for discount FVG. Step 3 – Identify Large Candle:Once you have determined the trend, next step is to find a large candle with large body & small wicks. If market is in bullish trend, we look for strong bullish candle with most body range while in bearish trend we look for large bearish candle with most body range. Step 4 – Study Preceding & Proceeding Candles: Once you have identified one large candle, now study the one candle before it & the one candle after it. Both of these candles should have such a structure that their bodies should not overlap the body of middle candle thus confirming a fair value gap between the wicks of first & third candle. Step 4 – Mark Fair Value Gap: In bullish trend the gap between the high of first candle and the low of third candle. While in bearish trend the gap between the low of first candle and the high of third candle will be marked as your fair value gap. Step 6 – Execute the Trade: If the price is in bullish trend, we will wait for price to retrace and test the discount fair value gap to balance the move. When price tests the discount fair value gap you can execute a buy trade with other technical confirmations like rejection or structure shift in lower time frame. In the picture given below you can see price is in bullish trend making higher highs and higher lows. It retraces back to test the fair value gaps and rejects from the fair value gaps, eventually going higher. In a bearish trend, you would wait for the price to retrace up and test the premium fair value gap to balance the bearish price delivery. When the price visits this gap, it can offer sell opportunities, especially when combined with additional confirmations like rejection or a shift in market structure. In the image below, the market is in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. It repeatedly tests bearish fair value gaps and rejects from these levels, leading to further price declines. Best Time Frame for ICT FVG Identification ICT FVG can serve different purpose, like it can be used as a tool to find the Daily Bias using higher timeframe like 1-Day. But if you are using the fair value gap as a PD Array to find trade entry then you would be looking for a fair value gap in lower timeframes like 15-Minutes or lower than that. Best Pair for ICT FVG Trading Initially the ICT introduced the fair value gap using the index trading like Nasdaq and S&P-500 and it yielded best results in that market. After that he demonstrated some examples of forex pairs using the FVG and it was equally good for that market too. So, now a days ICT FVG serve as a key tool for traders in every market. Final Thoughts While trading using a fair value gap we should keep in mind that every fair value gap in the market is not tradeable , to trade using fair value gap, we should use it in conjugation with other strategies like demand & supply or support & resistance . At these levels fair value gaps can act as a more reliable tool to take a trade. You can also check this article how traders use fair value gap to open the right trade. Plus to mitigate your risks, you should always trade with stop loss in place as no strategy is foolproof in trading.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by InnerCircleAnalysis
NAS100USD: Bearish Continuation Likely After Liquidity GrabGreetings Traders! As we transition into the New York session, increased market volatility is expected. Currently, NAS100USD is showing signs of potential further bearish continuation. This outlook is supported by a draw on liquidity toward downside liquidity pools and a notable inefficiency—an unfilled gap left earlier in the week. Key Observations: 1. Unfilled Gap – A Draw on Liquidity: The market has left behind an inefficiency in the form of a price gap, which typically acts as a magnet for price. Although such inefficiencies are not always filled immediately, they often become targets for future price movement as the market seeks balance. 2. Reclaimed Order Block Breach – Engineered Liquidity: Price has recently broken below a reclaimed order block that was serving as a temporary resistance zone. This indicates that the market was hunting for liquidity at a relatively premium price—above a key resistance level. The presence of relatively equal highs in this area further supports the notion that this was an engineered liquidity zone. Engineered liquidity refers to zones designed by smart money to entice retail participation. Once sufficient liquidity is gathered, institutions then drive price through these zones to execute large sell orders at a premium. 3. Downside Targets – Liquidity Pools and Gaps: With resistance now confirmed as engineered liquidity, smart money is likely to shift focus to the downside. Key targets include liquidity pools at lower price levels and the aforementioned inefficiency, which represents an area of fair value—ideal for profit-taking and potential continuation of institutional selling. Trading Strategy: Monitor price for confirmation within any short-term retracements. Selling opportunities aligned with institutional intent may present themselves as price gravitates toward the inefficiency and deeper liquidity zones. Stay focused, remain patient, and ensure all trades align with your trading plan. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.13635 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.13243..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
NAS100USD: Reclaimed Order Block Signals Further DownsideGreetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe a momentary shift into bearish institutional order flow, confirmed by the formation of successive lower lows. This structural development signals the potential for continued downside movement. Key Observations: Bearish Institutional Order Flow: The consistent break of lows supports a bearish bias, providing a framework for seeking short opportunities in alignment with institutional intent. Confluent Bearish Arrays: Key bearish arrays—including the mitigation block and a reclaimed order block—are currently aligned. These zones, if respected, could serve as strong resistance and provide high-probability entry areas for short positions. Trading Strategy: Should price retrace into these arrays and provide confirmation, we can look to enter sell positions with the expectation of further downside aligned with the prevailing order flow. Stay disciplined, remain patient, and trade only with confirmation. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
1
USDCAD at Risk? COT Turns Bearish📊 COT Overview – CAD & USD Futures 🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Still net short, but recovering fast → from -150K to nearly -50K. Leveraged Money: Strong bullish reversal from -100K to -30K and climbing. ✅ Interpretation: Institutions are flipping bullish on CAD → Bearish pressure on USDCAD. 🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD) Asset Managers: Cutting long exposure since March. Leveraged Money: Losing conviction → neutral to slightly long. ⚠️ Interpretation: USD is structurally weakening → adding to the USDCAD bearish bias. 🧠 Technical Analysis Price has returned to the key demand zone (1.3700–1.3850) for the third test. Candles are compressing → signal of upcoming volatility. RSI remains weak, no bullish divergence → no clear reversal yet. 📌 Key Levels: Support: 1.3700 → A confirmed break opens space toward 1.3550–1.3480. Resistance: 1.3950–1.4100 🎯 Trade Scenarios 🔻 Breakdown trade below 1.3700 → Target: 1.3480 🔁 Pullback short on rejection from 1.3950–1.4000 → SL above 1.4100 🔼 Long only with a bullish engulfing weekly close + RSI divergence ✅ Summary COT Bias: Bearish USDCAD → CAD strengthening, USD weakening Technical Structure: Support under pressure, breakout likely Preferred Play: Short continuation on breakdown or pullback rejection
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1