Get started

Ict

EUR/JPY Setup: Retail is 82% Short – Squeeze First, Drop After?🔹 Technical Context Price reacted with a strong bullish wick in the 169.50–170.30 demand zone, signaling clear buyer defense. The RSI bounced from weakness but remains subdued, showing limited momentum. 📍 Current price action suggests a potential retest of the 172.50–173.30 area, which aligns with a supply zone, before a possible directional decision is made. 🗓️ Seasonality Historically, August tends to be bearish for EUR/JPY: 5Y average: -0.48% 10Y average: -0.12% 15Y/20Y averages: -1.3% and -1.2% 📉 Seasonality indicates potential weakness, especially in the second half of the month. 🪙 COT Report (EURO & YEN) – July 22 EURO: Strong long accumulation by non-commercials (+6,284) and commercials (+17,575) JPY: Net decline in both longs (-1,033) and shorts (-4,096), with a drop in total open interest 🧠 The market is heavily positioned on the Euro, while Yen positioning is fading. This creates a divergence between the two currencies, favoring a short-term technical bounce on EUR/JPY, though downside risks remain in the mid-term. 📉 Sentiment 82% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY Volume: 1,564 lots short vs 352 lots long 📣 This extreme sentiment imbalance suggests a potential short-term squeeze against retail traders. 📊 Market Mood & DPO Overall mood: Neutral DPO at -9.0, Wyckoff score below 50 Momentum remains weak, but not showing a clear divergence. 🧩 Operational Summary Retest of the 172.50–173.30 supply zone Likely exhaustion in that area Ideal setup: rejection + bearish confirmation → Targets: 170.30, then 169.00
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EURGBP: Bearish Continuation from Reclaimed Order Block!Greetings Traders, In today’s analysis of EURGBP, we observe that institutional order flow on the H4 timeframe has recently shifted bearish. This provides us with a clear directional bias to look for shorting opportunities in line with the prevailing higher timeframe trend. Higher Timeframe Context: On the weekly timeframe, price action is currently drawing towards a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG). This bearish draw on liquidity confirms the macro-level bearish sentiment. With the recent bearish market structure shift (MSS) on the H4, we now have strong confluence between the weekly and intraday order flow, favoring continued downside. Key Observations on H4: Reclaimed Bearish Order Block: After shifting structure to the downside, price has retraced into a bearish reclaimed order block—a region previously marked by institutional selling. This return to the origin of prior sell-side imbalance offers institutions the opportunity to mitigate earlier positions and reinitiate shorts. The failure of price to break higher confirms bearish intent. Confluence with Weekly Draw: The reclaimed order block aligns with the broader draw towards the weekly FVG, providing an optimal zone for bearish confirmation entries. Trading Plan: Entry Strategy: Look for lower timeframe confirmation entries within the H4 reclaimed order block. Target: The short-term target remains the Weekly Fair Value Gap, supporting a discount-side delivery. As always, remain disciplined in execution. Let the market confirm your bias before entering, and manage risk according to your rules. For a detailed market walkthrough and in-depth execution zones, be sure to watch this week’s Forex Market Breakdown: Kind Regards, The Architect 🏛️📉
Short
by The_Archi-tect
Bitcoin - Will the liquidity at $122K be the next target?Bitcoin is currently trading within a defined corrective channel, which has been developing over the past few weeks. Price action within this structure has been characterized by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting a mild downtrend. However, these movements lack strong momentum, indicating that the market is consolidating rather than entering a deeper correction. This kind of structure often precedes a significant breakout, and given the nature of the current price action, a retest of previous highs remains a realistic possibility. Bullish Scenario Looking at the overall structure of the channel, a bullish breakout seems increasingly likely. For this scenario to unfold, BTC needs to hold the midline of the channel as support. If this level is respected, it could pave the way for a push towards the upper boundary of the channel and a potential break above the lower high structure near $120,000. A successful breach of that level could trigger a move toward the $122,000 liquidity zone, with the potential to challenge the all-time high (ATH) in the near future. Holding the midline and breaking above key resistance would provide confirmation of strength and continuation to the upside. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold the midline as support and starts closing below it on the 4H timeframe, we could see a renewed move toward the lower boundary of the corrective channel. This could lead to a test of the unfilled 4H fair value gap (FVG) highlighted in the chart, located around the $112,000 – $113,000 area. This zone also coincides with a strong historical support level, making it a logical area where buyers might step in and provide the momentum needed for a more sustainable bullish reversal. Final Thoughts While both scenarios remain valid, the price structure within the corrective channel currently leans slightly more toward a bullish outcome. The lack of aggressive selling and the potential for liquidity above the previous highs support this view. However, trading is never about certainty but about preparing for various possibilities. Being aware of both bullish and bearish setups allows traders to react with flexibility and discipline depending on how the market unfolds in the coming sessions. ------------------------- Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long
by Youriverse
54
Ethereum Quick Outlook – Potential Trap Before Drop?ETH is moving within a rising channel, but momentum is fading. Price failed to break above the midline and is now testing lower support. A fakeout to the upside toward the $4,015–$4,050 supply zone is possible before a deeper drop. The projected path suggests a short-term bounce, final liquidity sweep, then potential reversal. 🟡 Key Resistance: $4,015 🔻 Breakdown trigger: Below $3,620 🎯 Bearish Targets: $3,250 → $3,100 Structure hints at a possible Ending Diagonal (Neowave), or a Trap-Wave E inside a Complex Correction. ⚠️ Watch for manipulation near highs – confirmation needed for short entry.
by CryptoPilot
1
SILVER: Will Go Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 36.490 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 36.231..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
BTCUSDT – Diametric G-Leg Underway?⏱ Timeframe: 4H / 1H 🔍 Method: NeoWave + Smart Money Concepts (SMC) 📍Posted by: CryptoPilot ⸻ 🧠 NeoWave Progression Update As outlined in our previous analysis, we are tracking a potential Contracting Diametric structure (A–G) originating from the March 2025 highs. 🚨 The G-Leg may now be actively unfolding. Here’s what just happened: • Price rejected sharply from the supply zone near 119,000–119,500, exactly where Wave F was expected to end. • After a drop to 115,780 (minor trendline), price bounced, but failed to make a new high, stalling at 118,700, forming a lower high → classic signature of a developing G-Leg. • This G-wave likely aims to break below Wave E low, seeking imbalance fills and structural resets. ⸻ 📊 Smart Money Confluence (SMC / ICT) • 🟥 Bearish Market Structure confirmed via MSS on 1H: Lower Highs + Internal BOS • 🟨 Buy-side Liquidity above 120k was already swept • 🔻 Price failed to reclaim OB block around 119.5k • 🧩 FVGs remain open between 114.5k–113k, acting as magnet zones • 📉 Expectation: Price may now break the ascending minor trendline and accelerate toward the major structure low 📌 Primary Scenario: • Wave G of Diametric in motion • Potential structure: Zigzag or Complex Combination • Expectation: Bearish continuation to break below 113k 📌 Alternative Scenario: • If price closes above 120.5k, diametric structure may be invalidated • Watch for triangle/flat development instead ⸻ ⚠️ Risk Management Note: Price action near 118.7k–119.5k is crucial. Reclaiming that zone with strength changes the bias. Until then, sellers remain in control. 💬 Final Thought: We’re tracking the final stages of a multi-month complex correction. The rejection at supply, combined with SMC signals and NeoWave symmetry, suggests sellers may push price into deeper demand zones soon. ⸻ 📌 Follow CryptoPilot for advanced wave structure updates, market geometry insights, and ICT-style smart money traps. 💬 Share your views or alternate wave counts in the comments!
Short
by CryptoPilot
Short Breakdown of Cardano (ADAUSDT) weekly/daily technicalsLooked over this for a friend. Rowland I would love your feedback in the comments 🫡 I will see my biggest expectation is for this to make it's way into the weekly imbalance range below the weekly Mother Candle we are existing within. The entire crypto market seems to want to revisit some key lows to correct some inefficiently delivered rally ranges (meaning too many pending orders left behind due to price not coming back to grab them, happens when HUGE money places--attempts to place/fill--bulk orders). We are getting what I think is a temporary bullish correction due to taking of profits at key lows. It is my belief/observation that after correcting the newly minted bearish range (grabbing pending shorts above daily highs--turtle soup I think they call it), we will be able to drive down into the bullish imbalance weekly candle's range. Let's see how we go! 😈
COINBASE:ADAUSDShort
by HollywooodTrades
GOLD: Next Move Is Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,328.24 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,318.05..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
EURUSD – Will the bullish parallel channel hold?The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading within a clearly defined bullish parallel channel, as shown on the 4-hour chart. This channel has provided consistent directional structure over recent weeks, with price respecting both its upper resistance and lower support boundaries. At present, the pair is approaching the lower end of this channel, raising the critical question: will it bounce off support and continue the bullish trajectory, or will it decisively break down, opening the door to lower price targets? Bullish parallel channel On the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD has been consistently moving within a bullish parallel channel, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This price structure suggests sustained upward momentum, with the top of the channel acting as dynamic resistance and the bottom as reliable support. Today, price action is testing the lower boundary of the channel once again. A successful hold at this level could confirm continued bullish structure and open the door for a potential rebound. Bullish scenario In the bullish scenario, the EUR/USD holds its ground at the support region around 1.164, where the lower boundary of the channel intersects with price. For upward continuation, it must overcome the short-term resistance posed by the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 1.169 and 1.174. A reclaim and close above this zone could signal a shift in short-term momentum and lead to a move back toward the upper boundary of the channel. However, the path upward is not without resistance , price must navigate through potential supply zones and maintain higher lows to preserve the bullish structure. Bearish scenario On the other hand, a break and close below the channel support could indicate a change in market sentiment and invalidate the bullish pattern. In this bearish case, we would expect a structure break confirmation followed by a possible retest of the broken trendline and the 4-hour FVG. If this retest fails to reclaim the trendline, bearish continuation becomes more likely. The next significant area of interest lies around the 1.150 level, where a bullish 4-hour FVG exists. This zone could act as a potential short-term support and serve as a target for the downside move before any meaningful bounce occurs. Final thoughts The EUR/USD pair is currently at a technical crossroads. Traders should watch closely for price behavior around the lower channel boundary to determine whether bullish momentum will resume or whether a bearish breakout will set the tone for deeper retracement. Confirmation, either through a bounce or a breakdown with a retest, will be key in validating the next directional move. ------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
by Youriverse
61