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GBP/USD Holds Key Level Amid US Data WatchCurrently, GBP/USD is attempting to hold above the 1.2500 level after hitting an intraday high of 1.2575, but pressure from a strengthening US Dollar, driven by positive economic data, has capped further gains. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for new bullish targets, with the first resistance area at 1.2620-1.2630, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 1.2700, which aligns with the 78.6% retracement level. On the downside, the first significant support stands at 1.2302. The recent strength of the Pound has been supported by broad-based USD weakness earlier this week, driven by improved market sentiment, which reduced demand for the greenback as a safe-haven currency. However, risk flows could be influenced by upcoming US macroeconomic data. Traders are focused on December’s ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings data. A reading above 50 has strengthened the Dollar, signaling expansion in the services sector.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Brent Oil Poised for a Rally!Brent crude prices are currently influenced by a combination of strong geopolitical and climatic factors. At present, WTI is trading around $73.30 per barrel, nearing its highest levels since October 2024, as investors closely monitor the potential impact of colder weather in the United States and Europe. Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise, providing additional support to crude prices. Simultaneously, China’s economic policy plays a crucial role in shaping the global energy market, given its status as the world’s largest crude importer. Recent stimulus measures announced by Beijing, including ultra-long-dated treasury bonds and initiatives to boost investment and consumption, have heightened expectations for increased fuel demand. Support from the People’s Bank of China, which anticipates a potential interest rate cut in 2025, along with the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s commitment to further open capital markets to foreign investors, strengthens the country’s economic recovery outlook. In addition to these dynamics, the outlook for Iranian exports remains a critical factor for the Brent market. Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline in Iranian production by approximately 300,000 barrels per day by the second quarter of 2025, lowering the country’s total output to 3.25 million barrels per day. This drop is attributed to the anticipated tightening of sanctions under the new Trump administration, which could curtail global supply and support higher prices. The combination of rising seasonal demand for heating oil, growing demand from China, and reduced Iranian supply could sustain an upward trend in Brent prices in the short to medium term. However, it remains essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and major central bank policies, as any significant changes could alter the current outlook.
TVC:USOILLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
$BITF - Bottom In?Hello Friends, For those of you looking to capitalize on NASDAQ:BITF you may want to add to your position, or start accumulating for the first time. Posting a fresh idea here for NASDAQ:BITF now that the bottom should be in. Keeping with the Bullish narrative of CRYPTOCAP:BTC we can assume NASDAQ:BITF will once again see another projection higher back to its 2024 ATH (All Time High) of $3.91. I will post further Exit/ TP objective as we see NASDAQ:BITF move out of its current consolidation.
NASDAQ:BITFLong
by WolfAdams
Institutional Supply: CAD/JPY shortsHey, Little bit of a tutorial here to give you a better understanding about my zones. Of course on my profile you find multiple videos of my trading style. But if you see something like this shape up, all I do is wait... I wait for price to reach my supply zone, and show me 4hour confirmation. This confirmation is explained in other video's and posts. Study these charts, the zones play out a lot of times. A true edge. Kind regards, Max Nieveld
Education
by newcapitalfx
Welcome The New Yearly Candle!We have another yearly candle print, the 2024 candle. It is an especially interesting one due to the US elections and the how the candle printed. In this video I go through analyzing the charts starting with the yearly candle, all the way down to the daily and hourly. I begin on the Dollar Index (DXY) and then have a look at the EURUSD chart, with some intermarket analysis on USDCAD and NZDUSD. So as to make the video not too long, I just demonstrate how I would do my analysis on these pairs. With that framework, you can perform the same analysis on the assets of your choice. Good luck this year and may it be a prosperous trading year for you all! - R2F Trading
by Road_2_Funded
1
SILVER: Potential Short! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 29.80$ Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 29.30$ About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
1
XAU/USD toward $2500 before a new high!Gold's recent performance and future outlook continue to be influenced by a complex blend of technical indicators, macroeconomic events, and geopolitical factors. As of Friday, XAU/USD registered a slight retracement below $2,650 after a significant 1% increase on Thursday. The minor pullback coincides with a stabilization in the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.57%, which traditionally exerts downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. On the upside, gold faces key psychological resistance at $2,700. Conversely, immediate support levels are positioned around $2,640. A break below these levels could signal a deeper correction; however, current sentiment suggests resilience in the face of such potential declines. Fundamentally, gold's stellar 27% annual return in 2024, the highest since 2010, underscores its renewed appeal as a safe-haven asset amid persistent global uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions remain a primary driver of demand. Recent reports about heightened US-Iran tensions, including contingency plans regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, increase the risk premium for gold. Additionally, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to foster a risk-averse environment, further bolstering gold's safe-haven allure. From a global economic perspective, developments in China also play a crucial role in determining gold's trajectory. The anticipated rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), coupled with proactive measures to stimulate economic growth, is likely to support gold demand as a hedge against potential currency depreciation. Moreover, the Chinese government's commitment to fostering consumption growth through ultra-long treasury bond financing signals continued support for economic expansion, indirectly benefiting gold demand. Upcoming macroeconomic events in the United States will be pivotal in determining short-term price action for gold. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected to provide critical insights into the labor market's health. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen the US dollar, potentially capping gold's gains. Conversely, a weaker report may reinforce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the U.S. CPI release will offer further clarity on inflation trends, a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Higher-than-expected inflation could prompt the Fed to adopt more restrictive measures, applying downward pressure on gold, while softer inflation data may provide a supportive environment for continued bullish momentum. In terms of market positioning, traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, given the potential for heightened volatility surrounding key economic data releases. A hold rating is prudent for the next month, pending further clarity on macroeconomic conditions. In the medium term, a buy rating is justified, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, persistent inflation concerns, and central bank gold purchases aimed at diversifying reserves. Over the long term, gold remains an attractive asset, with analysts projecting a 15% to 20% price appreciation over the next five years, driven by structural economic challenges and sustained demand for safe-haven investments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY: After Testing 158.07, Ready for a Bearish Move?The analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a complex combination of macroeconomic, monetary, and geopolitical factors influencing the pair's performance. During the Asian session on January 3, 2025, USD/JPY dropped toward 157.00, highlighting bearish pressure driven by a deterioration in risk sentiment and weak Chinese PMI data, which increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Reduced activity due to Japanese holidays amplified exchange rate movements. Nonetheless, Japan’s December manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement to 49.6 from November’s 49.0, although it remained in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. Recent dynamics have been influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.62% and the 2-year yield at 4.32%, temporarily weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the greenback’s resilience is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The DXY remains near 108.00, reflecting the dollar's intrinsic strength, further corroborated by solid U.S. economic data and persistently high inflation, with Tokyo's CPI rising to 3.0% year-over-year in December. In Japan, the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain a cautious stance. The BoJ has emphasized that potential adjustments to monetary policy will depend on wage dynamics and inflation, which is expected to approach the 2% target in 2025. While the minutes of the latest meeting left room for gradual rate hikes, the likelihood of significant actions in the short term appears limited. This strengthens the expectation that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar over the yen in the medium term. The global geopolitical and macroeconomic context also adds to uncertainty. Recent statements from Japan’s Finance Minister expressing concerns over unilateral and sharp currency market moves suggest potential FX interventions in the event of further yen depreciation. However, such interventions would likely have only a temporary impact, given that structural monetary policy dynamics remain favorable to the dollar. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (January 10, 2025), which could confirm further strengthening of the U.S. labor market, and the U.S. CPI release (January 15, 2025), which will provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory. The BoJ’s monetary policy meeting is another key event, as any signal of monetary normalization could trigger yen strengthening. In the short term, the pair is expected to remain near current levels, with a potential test of the 158.07 resistance. In the medium term, the trend remains bullish, supported by the interest rate differential and the strength of the U.S. economy. In the long term, however, potential economic reforms in Japan and global monetary policy normalization could reduce the dollar's appeal against the yen, pushing the exchange rate lower.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD: Key Levels to Watch!EUR/USD stabilizes around 1.0400, with low volumes and a cautious market favoring a resilient US Dollar. The technical setup remains bearish: the 20-period moving average acts as dynamic resistance at 1.0470, while the 100 and 200-period moving averages confirm the downward trend. Technical indicators are weak and lack clear direction, highlighting the absence of bullish momentum. Key support is at 1.0370, with immediate resistance levels at 1.0440 and 1.0470. Fundamentally, the Dollar benefits from a stronger US economy and expectations of less accommodative monetary policies, while the Euro faces pressure from weak sentiment and uncertain economic prospects in the Eurozone. Key events, such as the Global Outlook Report and the FOMC meeting in January, could increase volatility. In the short term, the outlook remains bearish with the risk of approaching parity. However, the medium and long term could offer buying opportunities, supported by potential economic recovery in Europe and a weaker Dollar after the peak in US interest rates.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1