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GBP/USD AnalysisFundamental Overview: UK Employment Data: The latest employment figures from the UK show a slight improvement in the ILO Unemployment Rate, down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and a significant increase in Employment Change to 265K. However, wage inflation (excluding bonuses) has eased to 5.1% from 5.4%, reflecting slower growth in wages. Although these figures offered some short-term support to GBP/USD, the pair struggled to maintain its gains due to a broader risk-averse sentiment in the market. The UK’s FTSE 100 index is also down, signaling cautious sentiment among investors. US Economic Outlook: The lack of high-impact data from the US economic calendar on Tuesday provides little momentum for GBP/USD to attract buyers. Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. If the CPI report signals persistent inflationary pressures, it could strengthen the US Dollar further and weigh on GBP/USD. Market Sentiment: The risk-averse atmosphere, likely driven by concerns over global economic conditions, has limited any significant recovery in GBP/USD. This has kept the pair on the back foot, with traders focusing on the upcoming US CPI report as a potential catalyst for the next move. Technical Outlook: Downside Levels: GBP/USD is testing critical support levels as it extends its decline toward 1.3050. The 1.3040 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend, serves as the next key support. A break below this could push the pair toward 1.3000, a psychological and static level, and further down to 1.2965-1.2970, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Upside Resistance: On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.3100 (static level), followed by 1.3130, where the 20, 50, and 100-period SMAs converge with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained break above 1.3130 could trigger a recovery toward 1.3200, another psychological and static level.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Market Analysis: Fed Speculation and Dollar StrengthFundamental Overview: US Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Speculations: Gold’s price movement is currently influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, driven by shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Following the release of mixed US labor market data, investor bets on a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in September have decreased. The probability of such a cut is now seen at 29%, down from 47% before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This shift in expectations has strengthened the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. Safe-Haven Demand and Global Concerns: Despite the downward pressure from the stronger dollar, concerns over a slowdown in China’s economy have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The precious metal remains supported as a hedge against risk during times of economic uncertainty. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields contribute to gold’s struggles, as higher yields make other assets more attractive compared to non-yielding gold. Upcoming Inflation Data: All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation data, which could significantly impact gold’s price movements. Inflation is a key indicator for the Fed’s future rate decisions, and any surprises in the data could trigger volatility in both the US Dollar and gold. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could dampen the prospects for aggressive Fed rate cuts, further pressuring gold. Fed’s Blackout Period: The Fed has entered its “blackout period” ahead of the September 18th policy decision, meaning there will be no further communication from central bankers. This leaves gold trading in a familiar range, awaiting clearer direction from inflation data and the upcoming Fed decision. Outlook and Key Events: Bullish Scenario: If gold manages to hold the $2,499 support level and breaks through the $2,532 resistance, it could extend gains towards $2,550. Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to defend the $2,499 level, it could drop to $2,472 and potentially $2,461. A further strengthening of the dollar and rising yields would exert additional bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1