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EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850). ➡️ Potential scenario: A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380. The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction. 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318. This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off. ➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower. 3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY) Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134). Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar. ➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD. 4. COT Report – EUR FX Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long. Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs). ➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts. 5. Seasonality June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD. July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years. ➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms. 6. Trading Outlook 📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820 📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel 🎯 Key Levels: 1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply) 1.1500: first key support 1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC) 📌 Final Conclusion The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by: Extreme retail positioning (80% short), COT pointing to USD recovery, Extended technical structure, Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
DXY Swing Short! Sell! Hello,Traders! DXY keeps falling down And the index broke the Key wide horizontal level Around 97.800 which is now A resistance and the breakout Is confirmed so we are very Bearish biased and we will Be expecting a bearish Continuation on Monday Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:DXYShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
CHF-JPY Local Long! Buy! Hello,Traders! CHF-JPY is trading in a strong Uptrend and the pair made a Bullish breakout from the bullish Triangle pattern and is now seems To be consolidating above the Support cluster around 180.740 So we are bullish biased and We will be expecting a further Bullish move up on Monday Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
4
EUR-NZD Bullish Bias! Buy! Hello,Traders! EUR-NZD is trading in a Strong uptrend and the pair Is printing higher highs and Higher lows while breaking Important key levels such As 1.9270 which is now A support and the pair Is consolidating above the New support so we are Bullish biased and we will Be expecting a further move Further up on Monday Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
US100 – Extended Rally, Eyes on Pullback to Key SupportUS100 continues to show impressive strength, with no real signs of slowing down yet. The recent push above the previous all-time high came with strong bullish candles and high volume, confirming the breakout as legitimate rather than a false pump. This surge followed a clean retest of the fair value gap below, which acted as a springboard for the next leg higher. Imbalance Retest and ATH Break Before the breakout, price perfectly respected the FVG just above the 20,800 zone. That retest was crucial, showing institutional interest in defending higher prices. From there, the index cleared the old ATH with authority, and we are now trading comfortably above it, establishing new highs in the process. Support Zone Outlook While momentum remains bullish, the market doesn’t move in a straight line forever. A short-term cool-off is possible. I’m eyeing the marked-out support zone just above 21,400, which previously acted as resistance and now flips to demand. If we do pull back, this is the most logical area for buyers to step back in. Potential Price Path The dotted projection outlines two possible paths: one, a minor pullback followed by immediate continuation, and two, a deeper retest into the green support zone before resuming the uptrend. Both scenarios remain bullish as long as price stays above that support. A retest into this level would be healthy and provide a clean long entry for continuation. Key Levels to Watch The area around 21,400 to 21,700 is critical. If we revisit this zone, I’ll be watching for bullish price action to confirm continuation. On the upside, we’re now in price discovery mode, so upside targets are more open-ended, but 23,000+ becomes a magnet if momentum stays intact. Conclusion US100 is in strong bullish territory, with institutional signs backing the move. A pullback would be welcome and likely provide a high-probability long setup. Until the structure breaks, I remain bullish on this index, watching for a healthy dip into the support zone for potential continuation higher. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
TRADENATION:USTECLong
by TehThomas
40
NI225: Move Down Expected! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 40,150.79 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 39,753.50..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
TVC:NI225Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
CADCHF at the Cliff's Edge – Is a Breakdown Imminent? 🧭 Technical Context Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April. This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure. The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence. 📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps. 📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025 🇨🇦 CAD Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts → Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side Commercials: added +31k shorts → Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation 🇨🇭CHF Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions → Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven 📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact. 📅 Seasonality – June Pattern CHF tends to strengthen in June: +0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average) CAD shows structural weakness in June: −0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y) 📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF 🧠 Retail Sentiment 92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short → Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal 📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF ✅ Trade Plan Summary 📌 Base scenario: Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890 🎯 Target 1: 0.5820 🎯 Target 2: 0.5770 🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup) 📌 Alternative scenario: Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
SILVER: The Market Is Looking Down! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 35.998 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 35.727..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Bitcoin - Bullflag formation towards $111k?After the long and steep rally in Bitcoin that began on April 9th, the price is now entering a period of consolidation and forming a classic bullish continuation pattern known as a bull flag. This type of structure often appears after a strong impulsive move to the upside and signals that the market may be gearing up for another leg higher. Bull Flag On the daily timeframe, BTC is in the process of developing a bull flag by printing a series of lower highs and lower lows within a narrow descending channel. This pullback phase comes after a significant rally and is generally considered a healthy part of a trending market. It reflects a cooling-off period in which the market digests the prior gains while maintaining a bullish bias. This type of structure typically resolves to the upside, continuing the dominant trend. At present, BTC is approaching a key upper boundary of the flag formation, which also aligns with a prior zone of price rejection. This area could act as resistance in the short term and will likely play a crucial role in determining the next directional move. 4H Fair Value Gap Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, we can observe a clearly defined fair value gap (FVG) between the $102,700 and $103,800 levels. This imbalance was created during the sharp move up and now represents a potential area of interest for buyers. If price retraces into this zone, it could act as strong support where demand steps in, filling the imbalance and potentially triggering the next upward leg. Fair value gaps often serve as magnet zones in trending markets, and in this case, could offer a key entry point for those looking to position long within the larger bullish structure. Liquidity Levels One of the more critical areas to watch lies around the $111,000 level, where we see a double top on the lower timeframes. This region holds a significant amount of resting liquidity just above it, as evidenced by the liquidation heatmap. These clustered stop-loss orders and leveraged positions create a liquidity pool that could attract market makers and large players looking to trigger a stop run. As price approaches this level, it becomes increasingly likely that the market may spike into this liquidity before deciding on a longer-term direction. This liquidity zone acts like a magnet and is a common target for short-term wicks and fake-out moves. Expectations The current expectation is for Bitcoin to push higher toward the $111,000 level before the market makes a more definitive move. While this upside continuation seems likely in the short term, caution is warranted, especially considering the structure on higher timeframes. The weekly chart is starting to show some signs of exhaustion, with momentum slowing and potential bearish divergence forming. As such, the move to $111,000 could simply be a liquidity grab—a final push to trap breakout traders—before a deeper correction or reversal unfolds. If price does manage to break the all-time high with convincing volume and sustained follow-through, the bullish case would strengthen significantly. Until then, however, it’s important to remain cautious and recognize the risk of a fake-out at these elevated levels. Conclusion Despite the strong rally in recent weeks, Bitcoin still faces substantial resistance overhead. The $111,000 level stands out as a critical zone that could act as a magnet, drawing in price action before reversing to the downside. This area is not only technically significant but also loaded with liquidity, increasing the risk of a bull trap. Traders should remain vigilant and avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the move. Watch closely for signs of exhaustion or divergence as price approaches this level, and be prepared for potential fake-outs designed to lure in overly aggressive participants. Staying patient and waiting for confirmation remains the most prudent strategy in this environment. ------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
TRADENATION:BTCUSD
by Youriverse
20
85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!📊 COT Analysis GBP: Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment. Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure. → Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading. CAD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment. Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift. → CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD. 📈 Seasonality – June/July GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant. CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages). → Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition. 🧠 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal. → Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside. → Confirms short bias. 📉 Price Action & RSI Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area). Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming. Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move). → Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2