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XAU/USD toward $2500 before a new high!Gold's recent performance and future outlook continue to be influenced by a complex blend of technical indicators, macroeconomic events, and geopolitical factors. As of Friday, XAU/USD registered a slight retracement below $2,650 after a significant 1% increase on Thursday. The minor pullback coincides with a stabilization in the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.57%, which traditionally exerts downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. On the upside, gold faces key psychological resistance at $2,700. Conversely, immediate support levels are positioned around $2,640. A break below these levels could signal a deeper correction; however, current sentiment suggests resilience in the face of such potential declines. Fundamentally, gold's stellar 27% annual return in 2024, the highest since 2010, underscores its renewed appeal as a safe-haven asset amid persistent global uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions remain a primary driver of demand. Recent reports about heightened US-Iran tensions, including contingency plans regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, increase the risk premium for gold. Additionally, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to foster a risk-averse environment, further bolstering gold's safe-haven allure. From a global economic perspective, developments in China also play a crucial role in determining gold's trajectory. The anticipated rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), coupled with proactive measures to stimulate economic growth, is likely to support gold demand as a hedge against potential currency depreciation. Moreover, the Chinese government's commitment to fostering consumption growth through ultra-long treasury bond financing signals continued support for economic expansion, indirectly benefiting gold demand. Upcoming macroeconomic events in the United States will be pivotal in determining short-term price action for gold. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected to provide critical insights into the labor market's health. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen the US dollar, potentially capping gold's gains. Conversely, a weaker report may reinforce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the U.S. CPI release will offer further clarity on inflation trends, a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Higher-than-expected inflation could prompt the Fed to adopt more restrictive measures, applying downward pressure on gold, while softer inflation data may provide a supportive environment for continued bullish momentum. In terms of market positioning, traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, given the potential for heightened volatility surrounding key economic data releases. A hold rating is prudent for the next month, pending further clarity on macroeconomic conditions. In the medium term, a buy rating is justified, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, persistent inflation concerns, and central bank gold purchases aimed at diversifying reserves. Over the long term, gold remains an attractive asset, with analysts projecting a 15% to 20% price appreciation over the next five years, driven by structural economic challenges and sustained demand for safe-haven investments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: After Testing 158.07, Ready for a Bearish Move?The analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a complex combination of macroeconomic, monetary, and geopolitical factors influencing the pair's performance. During the Asian session on January 3, 2025, USD/JPY dropped toward 157.00, highlighting bearish pressure driven by a deterioration in risk sentiment and weak Chinese PMI data, which increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Reduced activity due to Japanese holidays amplified exchange rate movements. Nonetheless, Japan’s December manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement to 49.6 from November’s 49.0, although it remained in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. Recent dynamics have been influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.62% and the 2-year yield at 4.32%, temporarily weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the greenback’s resilience is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The DXY remains near 108.00, reflecting the dollar's intrinsic strength, further corroborated by solid U.S. economic data and persistently high inflation, with Tokyo's CPI rising to 3.0% year-over-year in December. In Japan, the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain a cautious stance. The BoJ has emphasized that potential adjustments to monetary policy will depend on wage dynamics and inflation, which is expected to approach the 2% target in 2025. While the minutes of the latest meeting left room for gradual rate hikes, the likelihood of significant actions in the short term appears limited. This strengthens the expectation that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar over the yen in the medium term. The global geopolitical and macroeconomic context also adds to uncertainty. Recent statements from Japan’s Finance Minister expressing concerns over unilateral and sharp currency market moves suggest potential FX interventions in the event of further yen depreciation. However, such interventions would likely have only a temporary impact, given that structural monetary policy dynamics remain favorable to the dollar. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (January 10, 2025), which could confirm further strengthening of the U.S. labor market, and the U.S. CPI release (January 15, 2025), which will provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory. The BoJ’s monetary policy meeting is another key event, as any signal of monetary normalization could trigger yen strengthening. In the short term, the pair is expected to remain near current levels, with a potential test of the 158.07 resistance. In the medium term, the trend remains bullish, supported by the interest rate differential and the strength of the U.S. economy. In the long term, however, potential economic reforms in Japan and global monetary policy normalization could reduce the dollar's appeal against the yen, pushing the exchange rate lower.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Key Levels to Watch!EUR/USD stabilizes around 1.0400, with low volumes and a cautious market favoring a resilient US Dollar. The technical setup remains bearish: the 20-period moving average acts as dynamic resistance at 1.0470, while the 100 and 200-period moving averages confirm the downward trend. Technical indicators are weak and lack clear direction, highlighting the absence of bullish momentum. Key support is at 1.0370, with immediate resistance levels at 1.0440 and 1.0470. Fundamentally, the Dollar benefits from a stronger US economy and expectations of less accommodative monetary policies, while the Euro faces pressure from weak sentiment and uncertain economic prospects in the Eurozone. Key events, such as the Global Outlook Report and the FOMC meeting in January, could increase volatility. In the short term, the outlook remains bearish with the risk of approaching parity. However, the medium and long term could offer buying opportunities, supported by potential economic recovery in Europe and a weaker Dollar after the peak in US interest rates.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
$COIN - Update: Buy + TPHello Friends, For those of you looking to capitalize on NASDAQ:COIN you may want to add to your position, or start accumulating for the first time. My original post: UPDATED IDEA: NASDAQ:COIN moving nice with CRYPTOCAP:BTC in this 2024-2025 Bull Run! Remember, NASDAQ:COIN basically mimics CRYPTOCAP:BTC so we want to trade them in a similar fashion. As you can see NASDAQ:COIN is still trading below the $368.90 High & the ATH of $429.54. I am expecting those levels to be traded to as CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues higher. The chart showing "Swing Protection TP 1" based on our current swing we left ($283-$149) is giving us a projection of $419.61. That being said, if you wish to add to your NASDAQ:COIN holdings at ~$318 (or lower), you have upside available to take profits. Please note: $429.54 ATH is a good objective. Will NASDAQ:COIN go higher with this bull run? IT all depends on when CRYPTOCAP:BTC tops out - I will update you then or follow along with my CRYPTOCAP:BTC exit strategy... Check out this link for my BTC Exit Strategy :
NASDAQ:COINLong
by WolfAdams
Gold Price Consolidates Near $2,620The gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase around $2,620.00, showing a recovery session from previous declines, although trading volumes remain light due to the upcoming New Year holiday. On the support side, key levels are found at the exponential moving averages ($2,625 and $2,630), with a risk of further bearish pressure if these levels are breached, potentially driving the price toward the monthly low of $2,580. Uncertainties tied to the economic policies of the incoming Trump administration and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts for 2025 represent a mix of potential bullish and bearish catalysts. The precious metal could benefit from safe-haven demand in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, which continue to fuel risk aversion sentiment. Gold closed 2024 with a 27% gain, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and accommodative monetary policies. However, the strengthening dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields have capped further advances. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains near its highs, but the decline in 2- and 10-year Treasury yields could support the metal despite the outlook for more limited rate cuts in the coming year.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Ready to tape read Yen for the last hour of trading?? Hello fellow traders! Let's observe Yen for the last hour of trading for 2024, that is, 0030 to 0130 New York time . My expectation is that the market will not break pdl , but we could see aggressive selling in the last hour. We've already taken buyside and I'm not expecting it to go above 158.082, which is the 26th Dec '24 high. Short term sellside objectives seem obvious. Do they seem obvious to you? Not a trading advice. Enjoy the holidays and wish you all a Happy and Prosperous New Year 2025!!
Short
by SatyajeetSahai
How to tell which swing high/low will hold?In this video I attempt to give a little bit of insight into determining which swing high or low will hold based on the current location of price in relation to the candle formations (PD Arrays) on multiple timeframes. I will be analyzing GOOG (Google) with the limited info in terms of past price action, as most of the chart is in a continuous uptrend. However, I do my best to determine the possible trajectory of price in the coming weeks. - R2F Trading
NASDAQ:GOOGEducation
by Road_2_Funded
1
EUR/USD outlook December 24In light of the strong decline that occurred as a result of the Fed news, it is expected to fill this gap that fell more than 150 pips last week. In order for this to happen, the EUR/USD is expected to rebound from the 1.0365 level. This area will be good for the pair to rise to the order block at the 1.04660 level. What confirms this analysis is that there is a strong SMT on the GBPUSD, as it was able to break the low, but the Euro Dollar is still holding and couldn't break it, that's indicates this low is protected.
Long
by David_Easton_EaFxStore6789
Merrry ChristmaXXauuuTo continue providing you with free value, I need your support. A simple like and follow from you means the world to me and makes a huge difference to my work. 🔥 Happy Monday, everyone! 🔥 🎄The Christmas week is about to begin🎄 I’ll keep posting but will take a break from live sessions. ❤️ I wish you all a 🎄 Merry Christmas 🎄 – spend it with your loved ones and recharge your energy. And remember: don’t throw away all the hard work you’ve done so far! Avoid being influenced by a market that, due to the year-end closure and the holidays, might be unreliable. | GOLD ANALYSIS | Short-term structures for our colleague Gold remain bearish. I’ll stay short from interesting levels. The long-term macro perspective is still bullish, but there are currently no conditions to consider significant re-entries. Potential levels are lower, so the key areas I’ll focus on are as follows: . As usual, we’ll meet live at 2:30 PM. I avoid trading during the Asian and London sessions, preferring to wait for the 2:30 PM news and the New York open. In the meantime, I wish you a great day. We’ll continue sharing analyses and holding live sessions on TradingView. For any questions, doubts, or requests, feel free to comment or message me! I’ll be happy to reply. - HAPPY TRADING - MANAGE YOUR RISK - BE PATIENT
OANDA:XAUUSD
by X_GoldenBoy_X