Emini / ES / SPY (4H) Backtest : 57% win rate across 21 tradesWinners = 12
Losers = 5
Breakevens = 4
Total Trades = 21
% Non Losers = 76%
% Winners = 57%
% Breakevens = 19%
% Losers = 24%
Win/Loss = 240%
Net R = 14.2
Avg R/Winner = 1.18
Avg R/trade = 0.68
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 14
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs) behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
Ictbreaker
USDOLLAR / DXY (monthly) : Faking below yearly low?30 yr yield is already making lower lows since March 2019 (signaling risk). Shouldn't DXY be negatively correlated to it?
DXY has recently dipped below a yearly low to collect liquidity. It's also an exit for trapped sellers from Jan 2018 low (blue box).
Watch out for a rally on monthly charts for DXY!
DXY up => risk OFF => Crash in stock market.
Let's see how this plays out.
NZDUSD (4H) Backtest : Break of market structureWinners = 6
Losers = 5
Breakevens = 2
Total Trades = 13
% Non Losers = 62%
% Winners = 46%
% Breakevens = 15%
% Losers = 38%
Win/Loss = 120%
Net R = 4.6
Avg R/Winner = 0.77
Avg R/trade = 0.35
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 20
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone (against the trapped traders).
RTY (Russell) (4H) Backtest : Break of market structureWinners = 8
Losers = 3
Breakevens = 2
Total Trades = 13
% Non Losers = 77%
% Winners = 62%
% Breakevens = 15%
% Losers = 23%
Win/Loss = 267%
Net R = 9.8
Avg R/Winner = 1.23
Avg R/trade = 0.75
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 26
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone (against the trapped traders).
OTE Pattern?The price looks like it broke that 40-ish level and will return down to the 50%-79% FIB level! That purple zone is where I would take a buy!
Price could also reach higher high and then fall back into the OTE pattern!
We just have to wait and see what will happen now that we have context from the 1H
XAUUSD (GOLD) (4H) Backtest : Break of market structureWinners = 12
Losers = 2
Breakevens = 2
Total Trades = 16
% Non Losers = 88%
% Winners = 75%
% Breakevens = 13%
% Losers = 13%
Win/Loss = 600%
Net R = 17.2
Avg R/Winner = 1.43
Avg R/trade = 1.08
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 13
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone (against the trapped traders).
USDCAD (4H) Backtest : Break of market structureWinners = 6
Losers = 3
Breakevens = 4
Total Trades = 13
% Non Losers = 77%
% Winners = 46%
% Breakevens = 31%
% Losers = 23%
Win/Loss = 200%
Net R = 6.6
Avg R/Winner = 1.1
Avg R/trade = 0.51
Bad trades prevented due to presence of liquidity near SL= 18
Icons on the chart
Thumbs up : Trade was a win
Thumbs down : Trade was a loss
Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven
Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity behind the stop loss
Variables
Avg winner = 1.6R
Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone (against the trapped traders).