Ictbreaker
DOCK/BTC in the optimal BUY zoneWe're inside a 4H breaker currently, retesting it as support again, and also a nice fib retracement zone.
If we bounce from here that would also be a higher low and a good bullish sign for further expansion upwards.
If you look below you can see that we bounced from an important daily pivot level too.
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Colors I use for a more organized chart:
15 min - Cyan
1H - Gray
4H - Red
Daily - Green
Weekly - Orange
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Some terms I used:
-Bullish breaker - an orderblock (a green or red candle, in this case green) that preceeded a move that took out a previous swing low, but was later nuked through. If the price comes back to that block, it is expected to act as support.
GBPAUD Daily view, STRATEGIC retrace into LONG setupBig picture first:
As you can see, we have a big void to the left which hasn't been filled yet, and the point where it would get filled conveniently falls exactly on .705 retrace from top to bottom. On the macro scale, I think it would have to get to that point before it continues its major downtrend.
The red levels are weekly horizontal levels that I think are important and reactive.
Now, looking at the daily time frame, we poked above the top red level and came back. If you look back at the weekly chart, you'll notice that there were several cases where we first poked one of the levels, came back deeply, and then finally broke out for real. This may be one of those cases.
What I'm seeing as a really probable setup right now is a long from the daily .705 retrace level . Not only that, but we also have a daily breaker , another red(weekly) horizontal level and a small void that hasn't yet been filled . That's 4 factors of confluence that I can't ignore for a setup.
Let's see how it unfolds.
Some terms I used:
-Bullish breaker - an orderblock (a green or red candle, in this case green) that preceeded a move that took out a previous swing low, but was later nuked through. If the price comes back to that block, it is expected to act as support.
-Void - a fast move in the market in one direction, usually in just a few candles and without any proper retracements during the move. Most of the time after the move is done the price will eventually come back to "fill the void". Also called an "inefficient move".
A 100 pip short based on a support-to-resistance flipFirst of all, this is the ICT Breaker concept from ICT (Inner Circle Trader) on YouTube, all credit goes to him.
I've outlined a nice example of this strategy in the chart. I use this a lot and it's really simple to understand and notice once you catch a few of them.
I'd love to see you try to find more examples. Feel free to post them in the comments and we can discuss them!
Things to look for:
- Same concept applies for longs, but inverse.
- The candle block you're using must precede a move that takes out a previous swing point (low or high).
- If the price does retrace to that block as you expect, but starts consolidating and pushes back into it repeatedly, it could be a sign that it wants to move back through it. The market is sometimes tricky like that.
Also, here's a bonus confluence factor - if you pull the fib retrace tool from the top to the bottom of the move, you can see that our block falls right between .62 and .79 fib levels. This is another good indicator to confirm your bias.
gbpjpy monitoring currently GBPJPY is near a key weekly SR level, I would remain bullish for intraday positions because the daily bearish block has been violated with a clear uptrend channel. Many confluences. Overall on the monthly this is bearish market but my inner trendline on the daily has been violated confirming my short term bullish perspective.
Furthermore, on the 4hour chart I would like to see if the breaker is respected or violated. If it is violated price would have to close outside of the 4 hour inner trendline and i would collect profit at 138. If the channel remains strong and weekly SR is violated i would buy pullbacks.
ICT Breaker #01 // EURUSD 1H. Watch @1.11820 My notes on the ICT Breaker concept.
The Breaker The open float usually gets knocked out by the Smart Money.
When that happens, the move up to trigger stoplosses is called the breaker:
Bearish breakers are runs lower
Clearing out the previous low
Transforming in a bullish market
The bottomlevel orderblock will not be reached by the retracement down
Instead the orderblock that caused the breaker will be used as support to push market up again.
(In this case the green cross reflects which stops have been taken out. The red area is the breaker that formed. The red arrow is the topline of the breaker. The blue lines are bullish orderblocks, orange lines are bearish ones.)
I am trying to apply the ICT Breaker here on EURUSD to explain some of the future moves happening. Personally I want to see us ignoring the breaker because I'm short. Though this justifies getting out of the short at that level, and for those of you that seek long positions. But if it does react at least I'll have a working scenario to reflect upon, because I'm not very skilled in detecting breakers yet.
Join the ride in my learning experience and please do not trade based on merely my analysis. Thanks!