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Ictfairvaluegap

May 28, US30: Essential Insights for the Week Ahead!Greetings, Traders! Brief Description🖊️: Join me in this video as we analyze what to anticipate this week on US30. We will explore various ICT concepts, including draw on liquidity, fair valuation, order blocks (how to choose high probability order blocks), and engineering liquidity (where smart money uses retail patterns such as trendlines, support, and resistance to trap traders into making investments). Things We Will Cover👀: ICT Concepts🧠: Draw on Liquidity💧: Understanding how liquidity is targeted and manipulated. Fair Valuation📊: Assessing the true value of price levels. Order Blocks📦: Identifying high-probability order blocks. Engineering Liquidity🔄 : Analyzing how smart money uses retail patterns to manipulate market movements. Trading Opportunities📉📈: Potential Price Movements: Providing a comprehensive outlook on possible market shifts. Strategies for the Week: Uncovering strategies that could make this week profitable. What's Important Now❗ To understand my current outlook, check out yesterday's analysis: For insights into High Probability Trading Environments (low resistance against high resistance liquidity runs), watch this video: Stay tuned and happy trading! The_Architect
OANDA:US30USD
by The_Archi-tect
Week of May 5 - DXY/Oil/DJI/NDX/VIX/10yrWhat a WILD week we had! Last week was insanely noisy between the FOMC on Wed, NASDAQ:AAPL earnings on Thursday, and NFP on Friday. This coming week of May 5th offers very little in the way of news catalysts, so it will be great for us TA based traders. So far, all of our weekly objectives have been playing out - and nothing has really changed from my perch here. I am still looking for new lows to come on indexes, but we will get into that later in this thread. The Powell pump candle was reversed completely by the cash close last Wednesday. Thursday night, NASDAQ:AAPL admitted they have slowing sales in China, but its (not as ad as feared) - so they gapped it up 4%. And on Friday - the market rallied on weak job numbers as the job market is softer than expected. Seems legit. CBOT_MINI:YM1! - The Dow behaved REALLY clean this week. You'll notice that all we did, was sweep LAST weeks lows, and return back to the IRL/FVG to reload more shorts. From HERE, I am looking for a weekly IRL to ERL move - with a final objective of LOY. From there we can wait and see where the next ERL to IRL move is. May started last week, so we had a fresh monthly candle that initially had a FVG forming. This index pop over the past 2 days has now filled the monthly chart. Everything on CBOT_MINI:YM1! is really clean here and aligned. We have the monthly that has filled it's monthly FVG, the weekly ran last weeks lows and has returned to IRL (in PREMIUM) to reload for shorts, and the h4 is running up into its 200sma. Looking over at the scammy CME_MINI:NQ1! - its the same setup on the weekly. The Monthly candle filled a FVG that was forming, the weekly returned to a IRL in Premium, and the h4 is running into a 200sma. If you average NQ and YM together- you get SPX. The difference is that they will hold YM steady while the sell NQ - and then rotate. It's really interesting to watch but the net effect of it is that the damage and move done to SPX is minimized this way. When you get a setup like we are seeing here - where both NQ and YM are aligned for sell programs - headed into a quiet week with no news - danger! This just Smells like a strong smell setup to me. Lets talk NASDAQ:AAPL for a minute. ALL they did - was run this thing up into the LAST open gap from Feb. The MegaCap tech stocks are SO large that they tend to behave pretty cleanly with respect to gap fills and the like. To ME - this is a massive bull trap - I have 0% interest in chasing this thing VIX - Now that we have talked about how the indexes are primed for a sell program IMO - lets look at the VIX for any clues we can glean. I will cover the weekly VIX in the next section, but VIX is now filling it's gap it created from a month ago. This is supportive of markets - until it isn't. I am looking for Monday to have a slight pop in markets as the VIX fills its gap - and then they start selling indexes things with vigor Tue-Thur. DXY/10yr/VIX - DXY Pulled back last week - but I still am looking for higher prices on the weekly objective to ~ 107 I am looking for rates to start to ease here as the economy weakens. I have an oversized bond long position on as I think this is the most asymmetric trade in the market currently. Bonds are starting to smell the weakening economy and are moving towards lower rates - the last missing piece is the 2s/10s inversion. This has been the largest and deepest yield inversion - in the history of markets - and it is NOT bullish. If history is any guide, once the 2/10s spread de-inverts - we typically see market crashes (note the dates in red) Oil - WTI got its head kicked in last week, and we are a pivotal level here. If Oil keeps crashing - it is just ANOTHER indicator of the weak economy. I honestly dont have any weekly context on oil at the moment - but the h4 chart shows us running right into the 200sma. The scary part about the weekly chart is how we have displaced lower. Next week will be a big deal to see how we backtest and confirm the breaker lower. Oil could head down to the lower 70s before we can see any appreciable bounce. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; We saw YM pop into our weekly IRL level - from here I will be looking for 4hr charts to displace lower and start the march towards nLOY. Looking for interest rates to continue to march lower - this will be bullish for indexes (at first) as indexes tend to ignore WHY rates are dropping for a little while. Oil MUST make a stand here - and soon. Otherwise I see us trading back into the 70s for monthly levels. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CBOT_MINI:YMM2024Short
by Baero-Trading
10
Dollar CPI Alert: Potential Buyside Draw for DXY🚨 High Impact News Alert! 🚨 News Release: Core CPI Time: 08:30 NY Time Attention traders! Core CPI news is slated for release at 08:30 NY Time . 🕣 Brace yourselves, as this news is known to inject significant volatility into the market. My analysis indicates a potential upward movement for DXY. The aim is to address inefficiencies lingering from last week's downward trend, which specifically targeted the Daily Sell Stops and mitigated the Daily Order Block. Adopting the perspective of Smart Money, we have the understanding that Smart Money used the Buy Stops for Order Pairing . Capitalizing on market inefficiencies such as Volume Imbalances and Liquidity Void will be the objective. Our target is the Daily Bearish Order Block, marking a return to Fair Value (Liquidation Zone). This strategic approach positions us to anticipate directional moves in USD-based pairs, potentially signaling a Bearish Idea, I will be looking at a Bearish Idea on GBPUSD. Stay tuned for a detailed video analysis and further updates as we navigate these dynamic market conditions. 📈💼 Kind Regards, The_Architect
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Archi-tect
GBPUSD: Exploring a Potential Sell IdeaPotential Sell Idea for GBPUSD: Following the recent Daily Buy Stops, our focus is on identifying an Internal Draw on Liquidity (FVG, OB's, etc) . A retracement has filled both the m15 Order Block and the presented Liquidity Void, coinciding with a H1 FVG. Presently, as we've expanded out of accumulation, our anticipation is for a retracement to fill the Liquidity void and mitigate the H1 Order Block, where we'll await confirmation for sell positions. The target is to fill the presented Liquidity Void to the downside while targeting engineered liquidity along the way. Wishing you a successful week ahead, The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
NAS100USD: Potential New York Session SellThe current market sentiment is characterized by a respectful acknowledgment of bullish up-close candles, a behavior attributed to Institutional Orderflow . I anticipate this trend to persist, barring any unforeseen developments. However, should there be a deviation from this pattern, I foresee a potential scenario where price may target the m15 buy stops situated at premium prices, albeit avoiding the High Resistance Liquidity Zone/High . As the situation unfolds, I will closely monitor price action for further insights. Please do refer to my NAS100USD video analysis below: Kind Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
2
NAS100USD: Potential New York Session Sellside Draw AnalysisI am currently monitoring a further downward movement towards the sell side, aiming to reach the H1 Sell Stops. Today, in observing price action, I've noted robust High Resistance Liquidity Highs unlikely to be breached. Instead, I anticipate a continuation of the sell-side movement towards reaching the H1 Sell Stops. I will await confirmation during the New York Session before considering sell positions, in line with our objective to capitalize on the Draw On Liquidity. Stay tuned for further updates. Refer Yesterdays Analysis: The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
6
Potential EURGBP Sell Continuation IdeaIn light of DXY's current consolidation, I've turned my attention to the exotic pair EURGBP. Exotic pairs typically display increased volatility during such phases. Yesterday, I shared an analysis on EURGBP, foreseeing the filling of the H4 Order Block. Consequently, I entered a sell position as per the analysis. Today, I'm considering a continuation entry for further downward movement. Refer Yesterdays Analysis for HTF Draw: Kind Regards The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
Anticipating Bearish Momentum on GBPUSDI am observing potential selling pressure on GBPUSD, I anticipate that price will avoid reaching the high established at the Daily Order Block , given its evolution into a significant High Resistance Liquidity Point, with no additional liquidity present above it. As we approach the extreme H1 Order Block, it may serve as a Potential High Resistance High. Hence, my anticipation is to avoid reaching that high. The objective of targeting the Daily Sell Stops located below the engineered liquidity. Kind Regards, The_Architect
Short
by The_Archi-tect
8
High Impact Dollar News Signals Potential Buyside Draw for DXY 📈 Trading Alert: High Impact News Incoming! 🕣 Time: 08:30 NY Time 📰 Event: Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m Release Today marks a pivotal moment in the market as we await the release of Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m data. These indicators shed light on the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. Based on meticulous analysis, my prediction points towards a favorable response for the Dollar. I anticipate a robust bullish draw in the DXY for the remainder of the month. Yesterday's analysis proved prescient, accurately forecasting the impact of the High Impact News release during the NY Session . As anticipated, price filled the H4 Order Block and the Liquidity Void left by Tuesday's CPI release. This sets the stage for continued bullish momentum throughout the month. For a comprehensive understanding, please refer to yesterday's DXY analysis and my Long-Term DXY Bullish Narrative analysis below . Stay tuned for further insights and updates. Refer: Yesterdays DXY Analysis Refer: Long-Term DXY Bullish Narrative Analysis Kind Regards, The_Architect
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
High Impact Dollar News Signals Potential Buyside Draw for DXY 📈 Trading Alert: High Impact News Incoming! 🕣 Time: 08:30 NY Time 📰 Event: Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m Release Today marks a pivotal moment in the market as we await the release of Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m data. These indicators shed light on the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. Based on meticulous analysis, my prediction points towards a favorable response for the Dollar. I anticipate a robust bullish draw in the DXY for the remainder of the month. Yesterday's analysis proved prescient, accurately forecasting the impact of the High Impact News release during the NY Session . As anticipated, price filled the H4 Order Block and the Liquidity Void left by Tuesday's CPI release . This sets the stage for continued bullish momentum throughout the month. For a comprehensive understanding, please refer to yesterday's DXY analysis and my Long-Term DXY Bullish Narrative analysis below . Stay tuned for further insights and updates. Refer: Yesterdays DXY Analysis Refer: Long-Term DXY Bullish Narrative Analysis Kind Regards, The_Architect
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Archi-tect
Gold is Ready For a Bullish WeekFOREXCOM:XAUUSD Gold is currently bouncing off monthly and weekly FVG. It has taken the Sellside liquidity on 4HR with a clear Buyside liquidity above to take and clear FVG to fill, both serving as draw on liquidity. Hence, I expect gold to be bullish for the next few days till atleast those liquidity above are taking and FVG is filled. Entry: Entry is at the extreme of the fvg below, precisely the optimum trade entry level of the Fibonacci retracement tool. What is your view on gold? Do follow for more updates
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Elijahenoch7
3
GBPUSD Friday's Review The FVG is unarguably most ICT traders' favourite entry level. However, there are little things to pay attention to: 📌Does it have enough imbalance/liq to make price turn from that level? 📌Is there another possible level price might seek liq into? Price will always seek liquidity. If we're working with a FVG, it should have enough Liq within it in form of its imbalance to make that liquidity-seeking achieved. When a FVG hasn't enough of that, you might want to look out for the next possible liq level(s). 📌 I'd recommend a divided risk in such scenario or you move to another pair with more precised price delivery.
Education
by Marshallme