Get started

Ictstudent

$BTC - Last Short before Pivot to Bulishness: Near $15,825 *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is regarding what price action will do - 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines,etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) Halfway points in fair value gaps, order blocks, Breakers, are always a price to aim for. Support and resistance onnly exist to protect profits, as soon as an institution wants more, they'll all use the same Options strategy amd that's then Support and resistance is broken. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Bitcoin - It dropped pretty hard after entering a 4 hour fair value gap. This is called an institutional order flow entry drill (IOFED). It drops down to "Support" To where retailers would probably start buying. However, If you haven't done a monthly time dframe analysis on this chart, you will be lost. There is a monthly fair value gap below current market price. After the current price hit support and came back up it then hit a bearish order block followed by another (IOFED) And this is where I believe the price will definitely take a dive as most retail positions are buying. Here's the chart depicting such safe support and retail buying in one area Options on the Bitcoin micro, for an institution to protect their asset would buy a put and buy a call. Therefor if it reaches the put strike price they can excericise the right to buy at that price and they want it lower so they can buy at a discount. So institutions know what retail is doing there for they can sell their assets and short the future/option to hedge against the sell. to get the price to start dropping. Once retail sees that it is dropping further than they want, then they eill start selling with Institutions pushing it down further. Institutions usually knmow the gap theory and will end their option/future at the midway of the monthly fair value gap and start buying up again at an enormous amount because this time it will be in the $15k range. This is about an 80% pullback from the previous low, which is exactly how the chart from 2017/2018 acted. So this should be the last hurrah of a drop. It can fill up the entire Fair value gap below but it doesn't have to. We'll just have to wait and see. Heres a chart of the monthly and where that fair value gap is. That gold line is the imbalance that price wants to fill. 2017 80% pullback VS 2022 80% Pullback 1. 2017/18 2. 2022 At first you were probabbly scratching your head or laughing at my idea. But go back and look through my last 5-6 ideas. I've pretty much been spot on the more I am involved in studying smart money. At least getting near an entry zone and hitting a take 1 profit. Thats All I need daily and I can do this for a living. What do you think? Is $16k ish too low? or do you think lower? Why? I think we're nearing the end of the pullback journey. based on history and Smart Money Technical Analaysis. Also the Commitment of traders report has the institutions adding shorts to their positions. See barchart.com chart, so if the institutions believe it's still shorting, why wouldn't we? See below Barchart CoT. It's the indicator at the bottom of the chart, and the red line represents Institutional Positions. As you can see it's lowering which means it's adding more net shorts. www.barchart.com So good luck and happy trading. COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BodiesXWix
14
SPX 9/28/22 BUY setup and FVG failure exampleToday took a trade based on the 4H setup as the 10am candle opened. Saw that we had a LTF FVG on the 15m (bearish) that failed and became short term bullish and got the entry on the 15m-FVG(H). Order flow confirmed entry to the upside. Buyers hit the bid price at the entry and followed through afterwards. Stop loss in profits and partialed at target 2 so this is risk free. Target 3 is the 4H-FVG(H) and that where I'm aiming for another partial. I hope this has some legs to keep running.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Long
by Cory4rex
$XRP - Bearish near .492 - 3 pivots to Watch *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Price moving up into Fair Value Gap in 1 hr marked in red on chart marked Opening gap that price just reached...will it continue or move back down now? Near that area will be bearish order block and get rejected and should move down to at least near $0.4455. I'll be setting limits on the three levels to ensure I at least take home a profit. 75% at 0.4455, 15% @ 0.42860, 5% @0.40241 We'll see what happens
Short
by BodiesXWix
EURUSD 15M TF (9/26/22)Price is bearish with a protected high and targeted low. Yesterday during London price into supply and gave us bearish PA that continued through NY session. All of the PA is internal within the 15m and the internal ranges have realigned with m15 swing structure. We have valid supply zones to short from but also realize that on the HTF we are in discounted pricing, so longs could also be valid. Yesterdays mitigations also left liquidity. Structural confirmation for longs would be for the most recent internal bearish range to fail, that would signal the internal leg as weak. Make the case for both sides of the market.
by Botnus110
$XAUUSD to short after reachng 4HR FVG *SMT+\*SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Tasla or Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will do 2 things 1) move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and 2) Move toward Imbalance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids. Open Gaps) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.* Even though Im calling short could also long it until it starting, However, I feel like the move to short will be a quick on and unless I set a take profit on Longing it, I may lose out on the full potential of shorting, in which I have 3 take profit goaks. On a Higher Time Frame (4 hour) There are two imbalances neat the current price. 1 above and 1 below. The question is why do I believe it will strike these imbalances in this order? First it will appear as if that market is taking it up because there is liquidity on the sell side. More than likely it will break the little liquidity point above within the 15 min fair value gap. Here I would expect it to consolidate through the Asian Session but break the swing/spiked high during that time frame, leading retail investors to believe it will continue bullish, but will move back down under that high. At midnight NY time is when the algorithm will take effect. Whatever price it is at that time is what kind if effect price will do moving forward. I believe that after midnight it would slightly drop to convince retail traders that it's shorting, then the Judas swing kicks in. This is where it will run up into the 4 hour fair value gap where there is a daily bearish order block. Here is where to expect the price to get rejected and maybe spik e up to fill the 4 hour FVG, then you start to see the price decline due to the curtrent equal lows where there is liquidity. Institutional investors would want to hold on to their investment but make a profit of the shorting of gold and place sell stops just above the low. As all that liquidity floods the market, the price runs down into the 4 hour fair value gap below the liquidity line. At this point the price is now a duiscount in whjich institutional investors quickly pick up the tab on the cheap prices and at his poinmt yo may see the pivot toward bullishness as the dollar may start finally lowering.' Additionally, After checking the CoT report Institutional investors have been adding longs to their positions, expecting a long eventually but until they start adding shorts, is when I expect to see longs. Just my thoughts and thew esperience I've seen from these types of charts and formation via Smart Money, I'm Testing my students and many have the same thoughts, so we'll just have to see what happens :) -BodiesXWuiix
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BodiesXWix