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Ictstudent

$BTC To Have One More Fall To End The Month *Smart Money Theory**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges, trendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. Currently, the price is sitting atop the weekly fair value gap. A fair value gap is an imbalance that price seeks out. They act as magnets and can also act as opposite magnets when price enters a fair value gap, they can repel almost instantly. This goes for any time frame, find these fair value gaps and mark them and see how price reacts to them. (fair value gap is the gap that is left in a three candle succession where the candles do not touch. heres's the weekly fair value gap on chart:) Sitting below that we have a Daily Bullish Breaker within the weekly fair value gap. Breaskers are a number 1 attraction to price especially if the are sitting inside a larger fair value gap. This is the picture of the main chart. This has convinved me that the price will have another fall to the breaker. It may be rejected as soon as it hits the breaker. Also you have to watch for the median of the breaker or the median of the fair value gap as price could reach either of those to fulfill its seeking of imbalance. (Here's the 4 hour chart depicting each median. I use a fib and mark the 50% lin of each of the Breaker and Weekly Fair Value Gap. It could possibly reach the low of the breaker which is why my stop loss is just past the breaker to give some room as I have seen price stab through the breakers. Worst case scenario is that it fills the weekly fair value gap but that is highly unlikely. There is a probability. I just personally dont think It will do it. Although Bitcoin did hit the Monthly fair valu gaps 3 months in a row (May, June and July) (Here's the link depicting the monthly fair value gaps being filled as well as the August candle filling the void between April and June fair value gap So there's the probability but is it likely in this situation? I think not because the monthly candles have already balanced and a fair value gap will not form between September to November. Am I planning on catching a falling knife. Yes. Does that mean you should? That is up to you. If fact. I'll probably lead with small amount in that opening price, and add to it iof it does go down and hit the medians. If it leaves the breaker, I'll be out with my stop loss, but then look for another long at the bottom of the fair value gap. Why do I have my take profit where it is? Well if we hit a daily Breaker (also known as a PD Array) then on the opposite end you look for the smaller time frame to form your exit. So Daily Entrance 4 hour exit. If it was the weekly Entrance, then I'd be looking for a daily exit. Get the drift og how we look for entrances and exits? So the exit is the median of the 4 hour Fair value gap going the opposite direction. EDIT* There is a little bit of imbalance between September and November. That line is at 52944.96. Once the price falls into the breaker, that line will be crossed and the monthly candles will then be balanced. This just gives me another reason as to why it could and will fall And I believe it will happen this month. And bounce around the beginning of December so December forms a little bit of a wick. I hope this was informative as to how smart money is perceived and how it is different than the train of thought that is retail theory. We'll just have to wait and see if this happens. I think of how the weekly candles form, the monthly candles, the daily candles, and it's apparent we're ending November on a red candle in BTC. But the price has balanced on the monthly so now I'm thinking about the weekly moving into December and the month of December should be a green candle. with a little bit of a wick. So what better way to depict that than to show how this might play out over the next two weeks. These are my thoughts and my thoughts only. Mentored by Inner Circle Trader, who mentors us in Forex and Indices Futures, he hates crypto but his ideas apply to all markets so I am applying them here. I'll have to sign off with his signature sign off. Good Luck and Good Trading :) COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BodiesXWix
7
$GBPUSD - Repeat of yesterday - Seek and Destroy Model *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory aka Institutional Trading = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. I keep seeing Ideas to buy GBPUSD and I keep wondering why? It's giobing us no indication it want's go higher. And powell to speak again tomorrow at 10 EST, same As today. I have measured out the standard deviations of the Asian range. 2 standard deviations above is the most recent high. Overnight, we should see the price lower then raise back up. Becasue if you look at thje DXY it is going to be going undewrneath the consequential encroachment of a break possibly touching the bottom of the boxed area then rising as soon as that happens it may take a while for it to get there which is why I am anticipating GBPUSD to fo the opposite slowly swoop down into an hourly fair value gap the raise the prices to the median bearish order block up if it wants to stay below the high. But I have a feeling it will take out the liquidity resting at the highs in the form of buy stops and pull back down very quickly taking out the stop losses. After that it would be heading toward the liquidity resting under the areas marked below the 4th standard deviation of the Asian Range. Here's what I think will happen with the DXY. Raise Above the current equal highs then pull back to the Bullish Breaker. It should be at that time powell is about to speak and we'll see anothjer sharo rise in prices in the dollar. Why? Because everyone is thinking the opposite. Andf if you're thinking the opposite, Smart money is thinking opposite of you. So that's why I think the GBPUSD will do something simlar but opposite, of course. Any my mentor said to try and idea, I'm not putting money on it as my mentoring has been great and I've learned more in Smart Money theory unlike retail where all I did was set my money on fire beliving the herd mentality. Instead I've learned to use many tools such as the asian range, weekly profiles, liquidity areas to form my ideas. It is the first of the month. So there is a definite possibility that the monthly candle could be the opposite. But it will go agains this "Trendline support theory" that I see from many people. Trendlines aren't support. But they do tell you where the liquidity is lying because so many people will trade off a trend line. Smart Money likes to go against those that would trade long off a trend line and force the price short. So I'm sticking with this idea. Anyway, good luck and good trading :) The only thing I think that would be slightly different is that it reachea
Short
by BodiesXWix
8
$DOT - 39.36 15 Min Gap to Start Slow Swing Up in December *SMT**SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. SMT does not believe in triangles, wedges, tendlines, channels, harmonics, etc. First is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The second thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. There are two gaps if you zoom in close enough at the bottom of the current turn and at the price I recommend to the opening of the trade. Yes there maybe wicks that enclose it but that doesn't always matter. I've seen these close on a daily timeline on EURUSD lately and turn right around. We're also in between a weekly and a monthly Fair Value Gap (Fair value gap is the gap between the wicks in a 3 candle succession) The monthly is filled and the weekly has been hit halfway. And that's all you need in SMT for price to recognize an imbalance and start moving in a bullish direction. However, my stop loss calls to hold for the full part of the weekly fair value gap just in case. However, I don't believe that will be the case. I think we will hit one of the two gaps whether it be today or tomorrow and that would also fill the imbalance that you can barely see. Now that the imbalances are taken care of what's next? To take care of the liquidity. Liquidity will rest at double lows, double highs, anywhere that a trader would have a possible limit order. The algorithm will attack these areas because retail will think the opposite. Such as the double highs where I have a silver line running across the top. Retail traders will see this as resistance and sell short. Smart Money knows this and they will get near it, pull it back to let people chase it south once it gets up to that area and then they will take the price up taking prices to hit short stop losses. Look at gold where there are 4 "resistance points" and the 5th time it pulls back and breaks through. Example: So be careful around these areas that's why I'm giving this timeline 2 weeks to work out because we'll end November on a red candle. December will once again be a green candle and it should start off strong. So that's why I have this end next Saturday. Any questions or comments please let me know. Happy Trading! :) The price is coming up so I need to release this.
Long
by BodiesXWix
4
$EURUSD - Breaking Sell Side Liquidity to long 2020 Bullish OB ***Smart Money Theory - Nothing that I have learned in retail trading has brought m profits, So I use Smart Money Technique or Institutional Trading. Currently, with EUR/USD it Appears that the Price Action is slowly making its way back toward levels from 2020. It has hit an Order Block on a daily time frame (Wick) and I believe it will drop below the Asian range (Around 1,14385) to take out the sell-side liquidity, Possibly even spike down to the hit the body of the Daily bullish Order Block (around 1.14280) before turning around and making a reversal. I see the bullish bias Already because it has broken the market structure at 1,14560 taking out short-term highs. Once The New York Session may give it the charging it needs to break up and over the equal highs near 1.14775 and possibly to the end of the 4th varition of the Asian range which also fits near the Median of the old 2020 daily fair value gap. See chart for historical references. I would be s little more careful on the stop loss with 30 pips and not 15 pips but have multiple take-profit zones along the way. The last without leaving 5 % on after going long near (now) 1.14360, highest aim would be 1,4885. Taking profit along the way at 1.14565, 1.1.4680, 1.14770 and lastly 1.14900
Long
by BodiesXWix
Education - ICT OTE NY SESSIONHi all, Just wanted to give another example, This one is one of the first that popped up while I sat down to back test today. one of the reasons why this is such a strong example of how perfectly the OTE plays out is, the Sunday range is tested perfectly. The Sunday range is set at the beginning of market open, Sundays open price is created, We move into Monday and price goes 1. AGAINST THE HTF TREND 2. into a DISCOUNTED SELL 3. INTO A LTF OB 4. INTO AN OTE OF A RECENT IMPUSE. the excursion of this trade is well into the 10 RR as seen on charts, I personally only test to 3/1 and that ran perfectly back into the Sunday range, Which is EXACTLY what we expect. it can be this easy, it can be this obvious. GO WATCH ICT YOUTUBE!
by trading12345654321
Elevate Your Trading | How to Track Liquidity and How to TradeEver thought a price moves because it's on support level or below a resistance level? Or because your favourite indicators show a buy/sell signal and you want the price to see the same and move in you favourite direction? A Big No, dear. That simply won't happen... The main gyrator of the market is "Liquidity" What is liquidity? Liquidity, in very simple terms, is where stops are. And that's (mainly) below relative equal lows or above relative equal highs... So you're now maybe thinking, "well, that's why I get stopped out just before the price moves violently in my previous direction.." Exactly, that's it... Learn how to see where liquidity is resting and how to to become engaged in a good trade... That's exactly what I want you to do... And here is one lesson of many that I will post.. in addition to live calls when I see high-probability setups... I will turn your eyes to it... Ther are a lot more to come, so don't forget to ▶️ LIKE ▶️ FOLLOW to keep updated with everything I post.. Let me know in the comments what you wanna be the second lesson on.. Good Luck&Be Safe
Education
by MST_Trader
1
$EURUSD - End Of Week - Economic Calendar vs. Algorithm (SMT)***SMT = Smart Money Technique = the lck of believe and use of retail theory strategies. It is an algorithm that seeks liquidity and balance. We doon't trade off trndlines, no do we follow channels, or harminics, or belive in supply and demand. There's al Algorrithm nd the Candles givee you the keys. per ICT. And I could be extremely off for this. AAAlright so it seems that the Euro has been slowly going down throughout the week. I don't see tomorrow being much different even with NFP numbers coming out. It is acting as if there is still liquiidity to be broken on the sell side. Especially the equal lows right at 1.15400. I think it will break a little higher during the London session and cross the Median of the 15 min Fair Value Gap, probably even cover the FVG it and hit the bearish order block before dropping. One scenario I do have is it hitting that 1.15450 area aas it is a bullish order block under a FVG and stopping there and slowly moving up since it is the end of the week. Howeever, It is NFP Friday, the worst day to trade, So I'm not going to even thinkin about trading this. But I'm putting out my guess as to wht would possibly happen. What we're looking at just below a few deviations below the Asian Range as well as using the fib for a short sell after it gets above premium and into that median of the 15 Min FVG gap around 1.15750, I wouldn't be surprised if thats the time we get the worst volitlitity and people chase it up aand it does go up for a brief moment but then it just falls straight though the Liquidity /equal low area at 1.15400 and the straight on throught to the 175% exxtenssion which just so happens to also be the Mar High of 2020 during the high volatility of Covid around 1.154115 which is also inside a dailly order Block. Chart Seen Here:: We'll just have to wit and see what happens. Happy Trading
Short
by BodiesXWix
$EURUSD - Judas swing to Bearish during London Session *SMT**SMT* - Smart Money Technique - This Means we don't base our technical analysis off trendlines, channels, harmonics, double tops double bottoms, or anything retail has ever taught you. We go off where the liquidity is likely to be setting so that smart money would be going after it to trigger the buy/sell limits and take them out with short stop-losses or chasing the trade. We think of daily bias first and use different methods such as the Asian range order blocks, breakers, etc. There's a lot of smart money vocabulary and if you're not familiar with it or the way it's presented, you may not understand this idea fully. In the short term, the Discount price from the previous ran (61.8%) as a short is exactly where I put my entry, I believe it may get a little higher but I think it's going for Thursday as the low of the week (or high of the week) but Wednesday still has some Sell-side Liquidity it is drawing toward. It did hit the daily bearish order block wick during the trading session today but that could just mean it's going in a little deeper before turning bullish and I still think it has a ways to go in the bearish sentiment before turning bullish. I could be complertely wrong and that it could turn bullish as we've hit the daily bullish order block already (but only the wick). But I have a feeling we'll be diving deeper before this pair turns bullish as it seeks liquidity. We'll just have to wait and see. :) Good Luck and Good trading OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by BodiesXWix
2