$ALRS is a well-growing company. Idea is here.MOEX:ALRS reached a high of the building. But this is just an intermediate step to jump to the building much higher. To proceed with this plan, it will loose a part of capitalization for a while. Till 75 to prepare an opportunity for getting better impulse to the level of 107.
Buy - 80-75
Sell - 100-110
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis
If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view )
IDEA
GBPUSD | I BELIEVE COULD BE A GOOD BUYHey Traders!
I'm currently eyeing GBPUSD as a solid buy opportunity. Here's why: we're seeing a clear uptrend, and importantly, it's just broken through a key monthly pivot point. What's more convincing is the formation of a 4-hour bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. Also, the 1-hour chart shows a double bottom that's successfully broken its neckline. After a brief pullback, it seems poised to retest its previous top levels.
Keep an eye on the 1.28000 mark. It's shaping up to be a strong resistance level, but if it's breached, we could be looking at some serious gains. However, always remember to manage your risks wisely. I'd suggest setting your first take profit target within the 20-40 pips range.
GBPUSD is trending upAfter a four-day consecutive correction from the high point of $2,088 on December 28th, gold prices saw a slight increase on Thursday, reaching above $2,050. This indicates that the correction signal for a larger uptrend still receives some support, as technical studies in the daily chart remain in the main bullish trend. Gold continues to benefit from the widespread expectation that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in 2024, as well as signals suggesting a potential economic slowdown in the US this year.
However, due to the minutes of the meeting showing significant uncertainty about the prospect of a Fed rate cut, the expectations for an early rate cut in March have gradually diminished. This has created resistance to further upward movement in gold prices and made the downside risks more fragile.
Bulls need to break the key resistance between $2,052 and $2,058 to initiate new bullish momentum and achieve a stronger recovery. Breaking this range, bulls will face strong resistance at $2,063-$2,066 to strengthen the bullish structure and attempt to break above $2,100 again.
However, as the New York session progresses, a series of data releases have not supported this structure, increasing the risk of further downside for gold prices. In this context, the fragility of gold prices needs to adjust downward until testing the upward trend support at $2,009. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to go short at highs.
Today's GBPUSD trading strategy will be slightly bearishIt’s a wild ride in the world of currency! Recent news about UK inflation is turning heads. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) shared that retail prices climbed by 4.3% in the year leading to December. But wait, there's more! Food prices’ inflation slowed down to 6.7% from 7.8% the previous month. MUFG, the wizards of financial insight, pointed out that this data signals a cool-down in inflation risks. Numbers don’t lie – the 6-month annual rate until November stood at a mere 0.6%, while the core rate was a modest 2.4%. Inflation's coming down as fast as it shot up in the year’s first half.
But hold on tight! The GBP/USD seems to be in for a bumpy ride. Why, you ask? Well, the Fed's tough stance on rates is playing its part, giving the pound a bit of a weight to carry. And there's more drama—UK’s economic growth seems to be slowing down. Brace yourself, as experts foresee a possible drop in the GBP/USD, eyeing that support level of 1.2580. Mark your calendar, as the next UK inflation data’s making an entrance on January 17.
Hey, it's not all numbers and graphs! Let’s peek into the UK economy’s mood. The Institute of Directors (IoD) had a rollercoaster ride with their confidence index. After a gradual climb since June, it stumbled down to -28 from -21 in November. Costs and wages expectations? They’re sky-high, hinting at some heavy inflation pressures. The IoD’s Policy Director, Roger Parker, spilled the tea on rising interest rates, saying it's been a bit of a downer. According to Parker, improvements in inflation haven’t quite hit the decision-making part of the business.
EURUSD will increase strongly again todayThe EUR/USD, which is like the tag team of the Euro and the US dollar, didn't really do much when the December Fed minutes came out. It kind of shrugged and kept going down, hitting 1.0895, the lowest it's been since December 19th. That's like the slide at the park—it just kept going down.
Traders seemed all about taking risks, and that made the EUR/USD pair keep sliding. It's like they're in a mood for adventure, and that's not doing any favors for our Euro/USD duo.
Now, imagine this Ichimoku cloud thing and a 50-period moving average as sort of traffic signals on the trading highway. Well, our pair just zoomed past them, going below, and that's usually a signal that things might not be looking so bright. Also, they did this funky move where a price that used to be all supportive at 1.1017 turned into a roadblock. That number was a big deal back in November and December, like a huge "STOP" sign for our Euro and USD buddies.
And here's where the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, jumps into the party. It's dropped so low that it's oversold! Sounds like it needs a pick-me-up. So, what does this mean? Well, it's like when you've been on a slide for too long, and you're really low down. For the Euro/USD pair, it means things might keep being a bit gloomy, and the next stop might be at 1.0850. This number's like a checkpoint along a line that connects the lowest points since October.
GOLD is expected to fluctuate slightly todayGold is poised to mark its first weekly decline in a month on Friday, as the U.S. dollar gains support from fading expectations of an early interest rate cut. Investors are eagerly awaiting a key employment report later in the day to glean further insights into the future of interest rates.
The dollar index is on track to register its best weekly performance since July 2023, making the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. The shift reflects the ongoing strength in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by Thursday's data revealing a larger-than-expected decline in new jobless claims and increased private sector hiring in December.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting held on December 12 and 13 indicate a growing sense among policymakers that inflation is under control. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding expectations for interest rate cuts. This ambiguity has contributed to a cautious approach in the market.
The decline in interest rates diminishes the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which monitors trader bets on interest rate movements, market expectations for a rate cut in March have dropped to 65%, compared to 90% the previous week. This shift reflects a reassessment of the economic landscape.
What do you think about my XAUUSD trading strategy today? Let meAh, the glittering world of gold! It's like a treasure hunt in a maze filled with news and whispers. Picture this: a Thursday morning where the gold market is as quiet as a library, all due to that sneaky non-farm payroll announcement peeking around the corner on Friday. It’s like everyone's holding their breath, waiting for that big news to drop, hoping it won't ruffle too many feathers.
Why all the hush-hush, you ask? Well, that announcement’s got a hefty influence on the bond market. And guess what? Bonds and gold are like old pals. They often do a little dance together. When interest rates decide to take a dip, gold tends to shine brighter than a disco ball. But flip the script, increase those rates, and suddenly gold's sparkle fades a bit. It's like playing a seesaw with your investments!
Speaking of friends, let's not forget geopolitics – that nosy neighbor always sticking its nose where it doesn't belong. Sometimes it causes a stir, boosting the demand for our shiny friend, gold. When people start getting jittery about global affairs, they often turn to gold like it's a security blanket. It's the superhero cape of investments in uncertain times!
Now, the US dollar – that's another player in this game. Its strength or weakness can make gold jitterbug or tap dance on the market floor. A weaker dollar usually gives gold a boost, while a strong one might dim its spotlight. But hey, gold's got a bit of a trick up its sleeve – it doesn’t pay out interest. That might sound like a snooze fest in a world where everyone wants a little extra moolah, but in the land of investments, sometimes stability outweighs the allure of a quick buck.
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance line to $1.0800Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded near support level, which coincided with support area, but soon it declined below to support line of pennant.
After this, EUR in a short time rose back, thereby making fake breakout of $1.0775 level and later it made upward impulse.
Price reached resistance level, which coincided with resistance area, and at once made correction, after which continued to grow.
Euro in a short time rose to resistance line of pennant, but later it bounced and made downward impulse to support line.
Also, price broke $1.1000 level, and now EUR trades very near to resistance line of pennant.
I think, Euro can rise ot resistance line and then bounce down to $1.0800, exiting from pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
GOLD price analysis strategy todayGold prices begin to fall, Spot gold fell from a high of $2,088 in late December amid a stronger U.S. dollar that took it to Wednesday's low of $2,031, from where it was struggling regain recently lost ground. The mid-December high of $2,048 is currently being tested, a move above this level would target the December 21 high, Friday and Tuesday lows at $2,055 to $2,059.
Support lies at Wednesday's low of $2,031.
XAUUSD: Analyze gold price trends todayGold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to capitalize on modest intraday gains and retreated to the lower end of the day's trading range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) attracted some buying activity and traded above a one-week high reached the previous day amid doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates soon ( Fed). This is underpinned by a further rise in US Treasury yields, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
💡December Bank of England Survey Reveals Divergent Views The most recent survey from the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel (DMP) in December is likely to maintain a division within the committee regarding the outlook on interest rates.
Those leaning towards a more cautious approach will highlight the ongoing decline in inflation expectations. The 1-3 year ahead expectations, calculated on a three-month average basis, dropped by 4.3% and 3.1%, compared to the previous figures of 4.6% and 3.2%, respectively.
On the contrary, proponents of a firmer monetary stance will emphasize the persistent lack of advancement in wage growth. Year-ahead expectations for wage growth increased by 0.1 percentage points to reach 5.2%.
Additionally, Catherine Mann, a dissenting member with a hawkish stance who advocated for a 25 basis points hike in the December meeting, had previously highlighted concerns about price pressures originating from firms' expectations. This aspect was a crucial factor in her decision to vote in favor of higher interest rates.
Today's gold strategy will increase slowly againSpot Spot Gold's advance from its mid-December $1,974 per troy ounce low has briefly exceeded the 2020, 2022 and May 2023 highs at $2,070 to $2,082 by rising to $2,088 on Thursday before giving back some of its recent gains and slipping to $2,059 on Friday.
Earlier today the precious metal resumed its ascent on increasing geopolitical tensions in the Res Sea and is on track to revisit last week's $2,088 peak.
Only a fall through Friday's $2,059 low would put the 21 December high at $2,055 and the mid-December high at $2,048 on the map.Spot Spot Silver (5000oz)'s rally off last week's $23.54 per troy ounce low, made between the 200- and 55-day simple moving averages (SMA) at $23.67 to $23.57, is gaining traction with the mid-December high at $24.29 being in focus. Further up sits the 22 December high at $24.60.
XAUUSD trading strategy today will increaseThe $2,050 level stands out as a pivotal point, having demonstrated substantial resistance across multiple instances. This price threshold demands vigilant observation from market participants due to its historical significance. While the market seems to be inching closer to this critical level, it's essential to recognize a notable trend: the market tends to allure buyers when experiencing downward movements.
This observation is not limited to the current market scenario but potentially extends to the overarching outlook for 2024. Despite the approaching $2,050 resistance, the market's predisposition to attract buyers during price dips could shape the overall trajectory of gold in the coming year.
Delving deeper into price dynamics, the $2,000 level emerges as a sturdy foundational support for the gold market's future movements. Consequently, any market activity near this price point is anticipated to draw significant attention. Adding to its significance, the convergence of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in this vicinity provides further rationale to consider it an appealing buying opportunity.
The Euro's recent escapades with the US dollar have The Euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theatrics.
This weariness isn't a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent surge stretched its limits, much like a rubber band pulled too far. And the timing? Well, it's the season of not just festivities but also fiscal scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide-and-seek during this time of the year, leaving the market feeling a bit parched.
The market's recent trajectory resembled a rocket's flight path - an upward surge that now seems to be enjoying a pause mid-air. This break isn't just a breather; it's a sigh of relief echoing across the boardrooms and trading floors.
Ah, the holiday season! Nestled between the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to New Year's, it's a time when the market dynamics sway to a different tune. Prominent traders, much like eager kids waiting for the last firework to burst before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There's a unanimous decision to trade the trading for a while, thanks to the holiday mood casting its spell.
It's not just a lull; it's the hush before the year-end storm. Most folks aren't glued to their screens analyzing FX trends; they're too busy contemplating the best roast turkey recipe or debating who'll win the family game of charades. The market, in its current subdued state, seems to be in harmony with the general mood - serene and taking a holiday siesta.
It is expected that GBPUSD will increase slightly today and thenLet's talk about the pound and the dollar - they had quite a week! The pound was like a kid on a seesaw, going up and down against the dollar. Sometimes it looked like it was winning, but by the end of the week, it didn't close at the top.
There was a holiday break for the markets on December 25, but the GBP/USD pair didn't rest much. There was some action because of the conflict in Gaza. That situation over there? Pretty intense. It's causing a lot of tension worldwide, and sadly, it's taking lives. That kind of stuff affects the currency market too.
The US dollar had its own drama. People started thinking the Federal Reserve might drop interest rates, and that made the dollar less appealing. Traders got excited, thinking it could mean smoother sailing for the global economy. But then, things got a bit wobbly for the pound against the dollar. You see, the pound hit a high note at the start of Thursday but quickly lost that vibe and went back to where it started on Wednesday. Why? Well, there's a fear of high prices and a possible economic slump, which got worse because people weren't sure what the Bank of England was planning.
Then, last Friday, the pound was all over the place. The news about house prices dropping more than expected probably made things more jumpy. But there were some positive things happening elsewhere that kept the pound from totally crashing. The US dollar? Well, it was a mixed bag. Some folks were willing to take risks, so it faced some challenges at different exchange rates.
AUDUSD: Market analysis strategy on I chart todayThe Australian Dollar (AUD) tries to end a losing streak on Friday. The AUD/USD pair is facing bearish pressure, even as the US Dollar (USD) lacks clear direction and China's Caixin Services PMI improved in December. Market Sentiment Weakness and widespread commodity price declines have both played a role in the Australian Dollar's weakness. Australia's Judo Bank's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows a decline in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors, further highlighting vulnerabilities of the Australian Dollar. The Services PMI specifically showed the fastest contraction in the services sector since the third quarter of 2021. However, Matthew De Pasquale, Economist at Judo Bank, suggested that a slowdown in the economy Australia has not yet gained momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds a steady trend, showing a slight tilt towards positive sentiment and potential profits. However, a pullback of recent advances in United States (US) Treasury yields could put some pressure on the Greenback. Furthermore, upbeat jobs data released on Thursday could strengthen support for the US Dollar.
EURUSD: EURUSD strategy todayThe EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive during the early Asian trading session on Thursday. The backdrop of a stronger greenback and higher US Treasury yields exerted some selling pressure on the major pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0922, up 0.01% on the day. On Wednesday, Germany's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9%, according to estimates. Unemployment change shows the number of unemployed increased by 5k compared to the market consensus of 20k and at 21k previously. Investors are awaiting Friday's Eurozone inflation report for fresh impetus. The annual Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in December is forecast to rebound to 3.0% from 2.4%.
NZDUSD | COULD BE A GOO SELLHey Traders!
Check this out – NZDUSD is shaping up to be a pretty exciting play. We've just seen a break below the 1-hour moving averages, and we're now under a key pivot level on the lower timeframes, which hints at some solid bearish momentum. Also, the 4-hour candlestick is sporting a long upper shadow, suggesting that the sellers might be settling in for the long haul. Plus, hedge funds seem to be leaning towards a continued bearish push, as they're starting to sell off NZD a bit. ✅📊
USDJPY: Analysis of the usdjpy market today, January 4The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the seventh straight month and fell to 47.9 in December – the lowest level since February.
Predictions of a reversal in the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024 will continue to support the JPY.
Minutes from the December 12-13 FOMC meeting reflect consensus that inflation is under control and concern about the risks that overly restrictive policy could pose to the economy.
AUDUSD: My audusd prediction trend todayThe Australian dollar (AUD) faces challenges as it struggles to stem a losing streak on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair is under downward pressure due to risk-taking sentiment and the general bearish session of the commodity complex. Weaker Judo Bank Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data added further pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
According to the latest Judo Banking Services PMI, Australia's Services sector contracted in December. The index reported a reading of 47.1, missing market expectations that it would remain flat. 47.6. Additionally, the composite PMI dropped to 46.9 from the previous figure of 47.4. This marks the fastest pace of Services contraction since the third quarter of 2021.
USDJPY | COULBE A GOOD SELL?Hey Traders!
Got a bit of a challenging one for us today. The market's been on a steep downtrend, but recently, it showed signs of upward movement after the release of somewhat positive PMI news for the dollar.
Despite these dynamics, I'm sensing a potential drop of 60-100 pips. The currency is hovering around a monthly pivot line, and the 200-day moving average is looming over the daily timeframe. These factors alone make a compelling case for entry. It's a tough trade, no doubt, but too intriguing to skip. My take? Go for it, but consider trading with a smaller lot size. Remember, this is a pullback trade, so we're not fully in sync with the trend 📈✅
XAUUSD trading plan on January 3, 2024. The market waits for theThe S&P U.S. Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell below investor expectations on Tuesday, sliding to a four-month low of 47.9 vs. The forecast level is stable at 48.2 from November.
Market appetite is distorted by erroneous data and investors are starting to temper expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), with average expectations of The market is pricing in about 150 basis points of interest rate cuts through the end of the year. This is in stark contrast to the dot chart of Fed interest rate expectations, which currently shows a maximum rate cut of 75 basis points through 2024.
Market sentiment will be buoyant this week as the first 2024 US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print is expected on Friday. December's NFP is expected to show a slight decline in US job additions from 199K to 168K.
NFP watchers will have to weather the mid-week crunch, with ISM Manufacturing and the latest Fed Minutes released on Wednesday, followed by ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday in the week ending December 29.
It is expected that GBPUSD will decrease graduallyThe pair even broke the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). The next major support lies at 1.2610 or the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours).
A downside break below the 1.2600 zone could trigger an extended decline. The next major support is 1.2520, below which the pair could decline and test the 1.2450 level. Any further losses could push the pair towards the 1.2300 zone.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 1.2680 level. The next key resistance is near the 1.2720 level. A close above the 1.2720 zone could open up more upside opportunities. The next stop for the bulls could be 1.2800.