BITCOIN PRICE ANALYSISBitcoin is approaching another major resistance level right at 26700 and it will act as resistance. I'm planning on shorting this level with a SL of 27000 and target of 25000.
IDEA
Engulfing candles = More Momentum ahead ⏳What we can observe here are Daily candles and Weekly Level's. To be more specific : A Daily timeframe Retest of a Weekly timeframe S/R level after a Daily engulfing candle. The weekly candle closing in 3 Hours at or below 1775 Weekly Support level looks great for bears. Bear pressure seems quite overwhelming and is coinciding with the opening of a new weekly candle. After 50 trading days of ranging since April 22nd, it appears price may be attempting to decease with some fundamental factors coming into play. The Technical's are screaming at us now to jump onto the train. This is a good risk/reward idea considering bearish market structure. If I was a buyer, I'd wait to see the size of the new weekly candle bottom wick before making an investment decision. Considering momentum, we must appreciate the fact that the next weekly candle will likely attempt to fill at least part of the current weekly candles bottom wick ( which is -3.12% ).
Sp500 Forecast: Unusual day and last hope for bull 🧙♀️ On third Friday of March, June, September and December, most options and futures expire.
Already today there will be a large quarterly expiration, popularly called "Quadruple Witching",
In total there are 4 of them per year (at the end of each quarter).
In last hour of a trading session, trading volume and market volatility usually increase sharply.
💫 As a rule, this is followed by a medium-term trend change or strengthening of the previous one.
Since March expiration, SP500 has grown by as much as +10%!
Almost 90% of this growth was provided by just few companies: NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:META .
And since beginning of year, it has grown by +15%, that is, there has already been an increase in the growth trend.
The whole quarter went up.
For your convenience, I put the witches on chart.
The picture clearly shows that magic happens on “witch days” and medium-term extremes of market 🪄
There is extreme greed in USA market right now - the perfect moment for a market reversal!
At such moments, unjustified pumps are visible in some unprofitable companies: NYSE:SPCE , NYSE:AI , etc.
If you are stuck in these papers, now is a good time to sell.
But from next week you can already start wearing shorts, summer is coming ☀️🩳
Now, the US Ministry of Finance and FED are also playing on side of the bears, which are withdrawing liquidity from the market.
Market reversal is 99% ready ✅
🎯 Targets for a set of medium-term long positions: 4000p, 3800p.
You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩
If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
Post-Interest Rates... 🏁--> Momentum Push? USD Interest rates helped to pull EURUSD back for better prices. Euro interest rates was the catalyst for a +1% increase in the EURUSD currency pair. The WeekIy candle can push a bit more to end off the week. We usually have a bunch of liquid just past extreme highs and that is what I am explaining on the chart. This is a price action concept. took buys at the beginning of the move and took my humble 14 pips.
Anticipating a continuation of price to the upside with consumer sentiment tomorrow. It is expected to improve over the prior data point two weeks ago for the USD. Given the massive buy volume it is difficult for me to visualize that the current daily candle will not attempt at lease so some of push towards the next daily level 1.098 Daily Resistance Level.
$CLF - to be prepared to be patientNYSE:CLF is a good industrial company with a long history and covers a full cycle of production.
Looks like it shows attempts to bounce of the historical bottom.
Would not like to analyze on the short time frames, cause I convinced, it will show awesome results, but only on the long period of time. This company is relevant for investors, who are ready to buy shares of the company with the stable business, just if it's in the bottom of the stocks market and being full of high level of patience with expectations for the amazing results.
It is clear, that trying to make some forecasts for so long time range - this is like shout to the aim, that you cannot see yet, but we can use a rules of tech analysis.
In this terms, I can predict 2 scenarios with 8-10 years of durability.
But before, I assume, this company should came from 16 to 8, approx in a year and after a slow and sustainable growth within 5-7 years it will have enough energy for the rocket show.
In scenario 1 potential is 8->48, +500%.
In scenario 2 potential is 8->80, +900%.
Honestly, I will not invest in this instrument due to this is not the industry, in which I'm interested in, but I would like to share a forecast for far away to check, either it will match or not with reality.
Mates, please, don't judge me for this peace of experiment ).
Does not constitute a recommendation
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Buyers are we Stretching the Luck? 🫢- Weekly Candle is Bullish and has pushed past the previous week's high creating a nice breakout of 77 pips
- The 3 Daily candles this week have been Bullish
- The Previous Daily candle increased by 70 pips in total ( 31 Pip Body and 40 Pips top wick )
- The previous daily candle's top wick was larger than the body of the candle itself.
- The 4hr timeframe has closed two large engulfing bear candles in the time since Interest rates
- The Market has punished late buyers with Interest rates data ( I called this out check previous post)
- The market has seen a change of character and this has known to be a frequent occurrence with interest rate releases.
- I don't think a randomness bias is associated with this Short Idea after we have seen 3 Bullish daily candles in a row ( The evidence above )
- The Market is Beast and representation of the psychology of all of it's participants. Follow your understanding of the price behavior and execute with only good Risk/Reward Ideas.
Will Ethereum survive this hot summer? Hardly 🙅♂️Now during FUD from US Department of Finance, we saw what a sale of altcoins was - this may negative affect ETH too.
A large number of coins are written on Ethereum blockchain, so in event of further delisting, this should negatively affect for second coin on market.
📉 From its high this year, BINANCE:ETHUSDT is already down -18%, while BINANCE:BTCUSDT is down -16%.
At the moment, Ethereum looks worse than Bitcoin.
According to technical analysis, ETH has +4+5% growth potential.
But downside potential is much higher up to -25-30%.
Now short looks more advantageous.
Fundamentally, all factors also point to a further fall.
This has been written about more than once in past ideas.
💡 Short term trading idea:
📉 Short: $1732
🛡️ Stop: $1874 (-8%)
🎯 Target: $1356, $1228 (+30%)
⚖️ Risk/Profit 1/3
💼 Volume per trade: up to 5% per trade.
You can find even more profitable ideas in the profile header 🎩
If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
The Quiet before the Storm 🪁 : Eurusd With the close of the Daily candle in the next 1.5 Hours, Longs would prefer a candle closure above 1.0782. This would confirm another Higher High in market structure. In an uptrend price creates Higher Highs and Higher Lows. If this occurs then we can anticipate a bottom wick ( Higher Low) and then a consequential new bullish candle push to the upside back towards 1.0813 daily resistance zone. At this current time price is Bullish on the weekly timeframe and has broken the previously week's candles high. The Daily timeframe will print the second bullish candle of the week which was expected in my previous analysis. FOMC tomorrow will cause quite the stir. FOMC could cause Eurusd to easily dip back to retest 1.0746 Daily support level before continuing it's ascent or going into a volatile range. Price has reached my bullish target for the week which was 1.0813 ( a 65 pip increase ). CPI data has resulted in Higher High on the 1Hr timeframe. Price ended up pulling back and correcting the increase made during London session. We currently sit above our Daily S/R level 1.0782, late NY session Tuesday.
New Bullish target for this week with fomc : 1.087 Daily resistance zone
The way CPI data distributed at 1.0813 makes me think. We reached my weekly target 1.0813 before schedule. We had an initial increase in price and I'm sure some players bought the high and are now holding drawdown as we move into FOMC tomorrow. If I was a buyer I would consider getting out for B.E. because the Daily candle is closing in 1.5 hours with a significant top wick. Larger than the body of the bullish candle at least.
New Bearish target for this week with fomc : 1.06915
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities.
If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level.
This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices.
Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
Capitulation before more Longs ♟️Price action is looking quite dreary for Bitcoin bulls at least in the short term. The June 6th 5-6 % increase in price was retraced in 3 days & 10 Hours. The 5% increase prior to that, on May 28th, was duly corrected in the same amount of time (3 days). Additionally, the market is likely to see lower prices with fears surrounding recent SEC developments against major Crypto exchanges. ( Binance & Coinbase ) The Market is creating Lower Lows and Lower Highs on the Daily timeframe. With the current weekly candle closing bearish in 20 Hours, I can't help myself but observe some fresh bearish pressure to begin the new week. This is something I have observed quite frequently when the Forex Market trends. All markets come down to supply and demand and Crypto is likely more of the same. A Weekly candle will likely create top and bottom wicks but if it doesn't, that's why we exit the market to cut losses short.
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing.
It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation.
If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday.
Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
GOLD CPIToday Im selling gold with high impact news - CPI. But Im careful and dont use big lots. Always taking partials
$RUAL promises a good results in a yearStable company with a sustainable business.
I expect, that is will show about 50% during the next 9 months.
MOEX:RUAL ::39->60::50%::March 2024
Does not constitute a recommendation
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$SQ drawing head and shouldersNYSE:SQ ::62->130::100%::3 months
Huge potential for the summer.
Does not constitute a recommendation
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$DT (Dynatrace) hits the obstacle before the long starts
NYSE:DT ready to break through a wall which is preventing a moving to height.
Figure is very closest to turning Head and Shoulders.
It is quite similar to that we will meet a good raising trend for this instrument.
NYSE:DT ::42.59->64::+50%::Jul 2023
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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$BTAI (Bioxcel Therapeutics - semi-year race with good tipsNASDAQ:BTAI - is it hoing to grow? My answer - it is almost ready to start.
Shown a high level of correcton after the previous long wave, company would like to show nice profit for the investors to this kind of fields.
NASDAQ:BTAI (Bioxcel Therapeutics) :: 21.46->50::+132%::Aug 2023
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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$IMOEX accumulated potential for the annual moving
MOEX:IMOEX almost crashed a plate above to start of mind-blowing moving to 3900 during the year.
$IMOEX::2450->3900::59%::March 2024
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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$LINKUSDT accumulated energy for a long
BINANCE:LINKUSDT is a full of the power for a long position and huge jump for being ready to return to the mother growing channel.
Position for minimum 1 year, but it sould be compensated with a high profit.
BINANCE:LINKUSDT ::8.16->13->30>35->44->59::+623%::1 year (May 2024)
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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$MOMO returned to the global side movingNASDAQ:MOMO rebounced and returned global side moving withing the mother channel.
To be aligned with the generic Chenese long moving? this one of the top companies should start catching up the colleagues.
Huge potential is hidden under the mask of the silent, but huge service company.
NASDAQ:MOMO ::9.15->16->25->39::+326%::Autumn 2024
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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$TAL wants to have a rest to be prepared for a long$TAL is dangerous for now to stay in line to long.
Firstly it needs to cool off in a month. Then, If I'm not wrong, we will see a good rally during the May.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
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Don't Eat the Forbidden Fruit and Buy the High ❎The Market can do whatever it wants.
The market may do as it wishes whenever it pleases. Like the wrath of a god.
We are not gods. We are humans and not one of us is invincible.
Therefore we must only take good Risk/Reward ideas. Buying up here is not a good RR Idea.
Buying the High and chasing the market is Forbidden to professional traders. Just as Selling the low is.
These are principles that the trader learns along the long and painful journey to profitability.
This is how the Average man , through patience and diligence , may become the greatest of warriors.
And line his pocket in ever-increasing quantities. Don't chase but allow the market to arrive at your level's.
The latter has probabilities in favor.
Creation of the Top wick / Weekly Candle / End of WeekThere are only two things that can happen on Friday's Daily Candle
1) Price may continue to create a larger weekly candle body or
2) the weekly candle will form a larger wick and retrace
This week we are observing the latter
Price is pulling away from the High prices created during yesterday's New York Session
If the Daily candle closes beneath 1.0762 then we have returned back into the range and will
be eyeing out potential short setups to begin next week.
For Buys I would've preferred that we would have held 1.07615 Daily S/R Zone as we can see it played a key role in pivoting on 6/2, 5/19, and 3/27
Now we continue the range as far as Im concerned. We may pullback to the highs ( 1.0774 and 1.0786) early next week ( Monday/Tuesday ) then dive back to support at 1.069 Daily Support.
