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The Depression of 2022-2024In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10. My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply. 100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough. Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
SHOP short tradeShort term short trade for shopify. Short at 36.50 initially potential pull back but higher short at 38-40 will monitor. It's recently broken out of a descending channel due to earnings. I expect momentum to potentially continue depending as it looks like the indices want to extent a little further before pulling back. Confluences for trade are: historically 60-80 RSI has been pullback area for SHOP. 61 FIB is also around this area Top of recent trading range 20-50 ema may reject again but will monitor. has traded below one another since breakdown at the top. looking for a 5-10% move to downside back to 32-33 area.
S
by JamesFlem
1
Gold could drop from resistanceAfter touching 1620 on Friday, Gold has reversed strongly finishing the day towards 1660 resistance. Looking at the posted daily chart we can see that the bearish structure is still intact in spite of this almost 400 pips reversal and will remain so as long as the 1680-1690 ceiling is intact. That being said, my medium-term outlook remains bearish and I expect a new wave of selling. Also, those of you who are calling for a double bottom should know that this pattern is confirmed ONLY by a break above 1725 TVC:GOLD
FX:XAUUSDShort
by talhashaheen
ETH - Mid Term As you can see, Ethereum around this time played out similarly in its past with this bottom trendline. As a result, I remain convinced that Ethereum will find support from this rejection for the third time. Moreover, after finding support, Ethereum will proceed to break through the bottom resistance and attempt to retest the top resistance line. **You can visually see both trendlines resistance and support overall better with the line graph rather than candle graph**
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JINXx-X
Gold Short-term Downtrend As stated on my previous trade idea the USD has better control of inflation and is maintaining relative strength over other top currency pairs. With this in mind the USD will be more popular than the Gold as Gold generally goes the opposite direction to USD due to the intrinsic value it can hold the Dollar currency. This trade is merely speculative and has somewhat of an entry shown by the 4-hour candle closing underneath the "Buy Zone". - Note to never risk more than 1-3% of your account on any given trade. Please form your own research but I hope this can give some advice or fuel for ideas to be generated. A Follow would be appreciated if this helps!
TVC:GOLDShort
by wozencroftkyle
2
What is FOMO and how we can minimise itI like to try keep explanations nice, simple and short.. everyone one should know the definition of FOMO is (fear of missing out) this is a simple and common emotion that affects us in all different areas of our life but when you bring it to the charts and your trading it can lead to a roller coaster of emotions and mistakes... I found a few things that help me when learning and still controlling it is... Been cautious with who you follow and monitor how your desertions are influenced from others, (hot tips, signals etc) you always want to have a clear view of how you yourself analyse the markets with a strict plan.. you may be a quick intra-day trader but someone you follow gives a signal that might be a trade to hold for weeks... a mix up in trading styles can cost you a loss even though the person you follow makes the right call. This kind of backs off the last suggestion I made but its simple Create a plan, Know which time frame your trading in (short term long term) and trade only if its right by YOUR trading plan. Overconfidence can lead to trying to stay to active on the charts, chasing every possible trade setup and can really mess with your head. Chasing a loss after losing money is another common mistake.. sometimes i take a day or 2 away from the market if I have had a nice winning trade as well as possibly taking a loss. Sometimes its best to take a breather access what you may have done right or wrong and come back with a clear head ready to make smart decisions One of my personal favourite strategy's to limit this situation is, If you want to enter the market but price may not be at the area you think it may support or resist from, take 50% of the usual amount you risk for example you usually risk 1% which may be $100 make it 0.5% which is $50 and then if price goes the way you expect your still entered in a position but then if price goes the opposite way and hits the level you expect then you can enter the other 0.5% of risk to get into another trade a maybe a better entry point... DONT rush into trades on the Monday!! Remember there is a whole week for many opportunity's to arise and sometimes the best opportunity's don't come until the end of the week, I used to over trade on the Monday and end up trying to catch up the rest of the week... So I for a while didn't even look at the charts on the Monday to resist the temptation. Different strategy's will work for different people so find something that works for you and stick to it!! Let me know if you can share any ideas that helped you, it may be able to help someone else!!
Education
by jamison_fx
6
Weekly gold analysis and opportunity📝 Weekly gold Gold is trying to go down to $1620 area because of U.S inflation and last CPI print Over the past few months, any increasing sign in US inflation has caused gold to fall because it forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve will increase the interest rate with the increase in inflation, but on the other hand, the only issue that can stop the increase in interest rates is the employment data and the increase of the unemployed. Following the consumer price index and inflation data, the US dollar recovered from its weekly lows and put downward pressure on gold. Strong U.S. consumer inflation numbers reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path. Because we knew this information, we could predict the trend of the last week correctly. We said that any correction of the price of gold upwards can provide a new selling position. According to CME FedWatch, the U.S. dollar's strong growth comes from a 99% expectation of a 75bp interest rate hike in November, a 74 percent chance of a 50 basis point hike in December, and possibly a series of smaller hikes in February and March. As long as the current macro environment holds, more downside is likely for gold. Considering the market's reaction to last week's inflation data, we predict that market traders will prepare themselves for the aggressiveness of the next FOMC session. 🔻 The leading economic data this week is data on home sales and building permits 🔻 In addition to economic data, we should focus on the events of Russia and Ukraine Political,military tensions 🔻 By the technical point of view, the next target of sellers is $1620 and any retracement to the $1660-$1670 is another sell opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi