IDX dropping like a stoneHello, thanks for viewing.
I was going to post this last week, but thought no one probably cares. I put a lot of time into these, now I can't see how many people have viewed, and I get little feedback.
Anyway, spent the day reading story headlines like "Asian shares bounce on strong US open". Totally out of sync with what is happening here in Indonesia. In a few days Indonesia enters a second lockdown. Nothing like the first lockdown - or lockdown "lite" - as I called it. When the streets were still busy and every 4th person wasn't following protocols. Now it's a lockdown because the hospital system HAS reached maximum capacity. There is no back-up healthcare capacity to bring online. It is very rare to talk to anyone here who is taking the situation seriously.
Most of the businesses that continued during the first "soft" lockdown will be closed and access to the main airport will be heavily curtailed as of Monday. I'm not saying this with glee - I am caught up in all of this and everyone who hasn't taken it seriously is an obstacle to my family's best interests. Long story short, there will be a huge and bitterly painful reduction in employment locally. The ability to buy (or sell) physical gold will be postponed. The government's deficit will balloon (it is already much larger than even recently forecast) and be financed by printing a LOT more of "the worst performing currency in Asia in 2020".
Ok, I am not getting into what happens medium and long term;
- Short-term though revenue reductions in all but a few FMCG consumer goods producers, health, and essential services.
- A large up-tick in non-performing loans (even as recently as late 2019 many banks were approved to hold significantly reduced capital requirements) so this is going to sting. There are already a number of large non-performing loans on the books, but they have not been called in as yet. Once you call them in, you lock in the loss caused by years of bad underwriting and oversight. Well, the banks will be forced to take those losses now. Any residual collateral will be called in and liquidated (at the bottom of the market). Aircraft, property, permits, mining concessions. The other reason that non-performing loans haven't been called in already is that the government has supported banks to suspend loan repayments. That's all good if the time-horizon is short. If it continues for 9 months, 12, 15, well at some point investors will have to face facts - that the loans will never be repaid.
- Probably more points but I should really go to bed.
Look for a break of the read dashed line at 311ish. If so, we are going much lower, all sorts of things will be uncovered, bankruptcies etc will follow but the market will be on sale for those that choose correctly. Good luck and protect those funds everyone.
