EURUSD: Bat Pattern Setting Up, How Will We Get ThereIn yesterday’s post I mentioned that the EURUSD was at a decision point. Well, it looks like the markets didn’t decided to go with my decision to get short as I was stopped out on the 2618 opportunity. Luckily Jason had a monster day in the Syndicate bringing in just under 300 pips himself. That’s what friends are for!
Now that the Euro has broken and closed above the previous resistance level it’s time to redo that IPDE process and prepared for the next move. Our next structure level starts around the 1.1360’s area which would also line up with a bearish bat pattern completion here on the daily. I’m not a daily chart trader, but this information will be useful for building a CTS score as I do analysis on the lower timeframes. One thing to be careful with is the higher level of structure looking left. In my experience I’ve noticed that when two levels of structure are close to eachother, the higher one is typically tested. Something to keep in mind when placing those stop losses.
In the mean time, there are two ways that price action can reach that level, it can either go directly there, or we may see a pullback into previous resistance which should now act as support
Because I didn’t have the chance to record a Weekend Review video last night I’m going to do another Live Google Hangout for the first 20 minute so of today’s Live Trading Room. Here’s the link if you want to join. And make sure you subscribe to my channel.
Click here to join the hangout www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: The Next Potential Short on Euro, Bearish 2618As price action makes its way back up towards previous structure highs, we’ll reach what I like to call a “decision point” in the market. I call it that because it’s at this point where our “IF/THEN” thought process comes in today play in our decision of whether to go long or short.
Because we have yet to break structure, I won’t touch on the long option, but the short option is playing this current move as a 2618 trade. We have already entered the killzone starting at 1.1120’s and at this point I would be dialing down to your lower timeframes and looking for an entry reason.
IF this 2618 does complete and rollover, it would also be the “C” leg of a potential bullish bat pattern. You guys know how I feel about the “aggressive C” trade (BAD! BAD! BAD!) but this would be one that actually makes sense, only because you have a valid reason to enter.
I’m feeling horrible today as I’ve caught a cold from somewhere, but with A LOT on my trading radar (Syndicate members, take a look at the tradefloor this morning) I don’t want to miss what could be a day ripe with opportunity.
(If you’re unfamiliar with the 2618 trade, the free training is on our website under the “Learn to Trade” tab)
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: CPI & FOMC Today. My Advice of Trading News ReleasesToday should be a very important day for the EURUSD as we have both CPI and FOMC Meeting minutes coming out for the USD at 8:30am & 2:00pm (NY) respectively. Like many pairs as of late the Euro is currently at a spot right between structure levels where I have neither buying or selling interest. Hopefully today’s releases will push price action to either support or resistance, allowing me to have a much better read on the market for the remainder of the week.
On yesterday’s post I had a good conversation with a trader about predicting news. Whether you should or shouldn’t is completely up to you as a trader, but I do offer this advice to those who are new. Good news doesn’t always equate to a good move and bad news doesn’t always equate to a bad move. Rarely does the market move based on the actual number that is released, more so the interpretation of that number which is what makes trading news a difficult thing to consistently do (unless you’re a longer term trader). If you already have a position on (based off of the technicals) and you decide to hold an extended target because you think that the market may react a certain way, then that’s a different story as I trust that you’re using well planned out trade management techniques. But I would urge you not to try and take a position purely based off a guess, the risk over time well outweighs the reward in my opinion.
For you guys that joined me in yesterday’s Live Room Google hangout, (here’s the recording www.youtube.com) I did get filled the USDCAD that we talked about. This may be a perfect example of what I mentioned above about holding a partial position if you anticipate a certain move.
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EURUSD: What's Going On With The EURO???I wanted to title this post What’s Going On With The Euro? Because I honestly don’t have a clue. With the lack of movement in the markets, it’s been really difficult to get a true read on certain pairs since they just aren’t moving too much. With no major news out today and CPI & FOMC coming tomorrow I’m expecting more of the same today.
None the less, it’s still important that I go through my I.P.D.E. process and at least make some predictions so that I have some sort of structure (no pun intended) going into the trading day.
As I always do with my analysis, what I have drawn on this chart is just a series of harmonic moves and Fibonacci extensions, inversions & retracements. They create a nice zone between the 1.1020-1.0980’s level. With that being said there’s no real level of structure at that level that gives me confidence in a reversal at that area so I’m not actively looking to get long there from a swing traders perspective. Could be a good day trading option if we get the right type of reaction once we hit it.
Anyway we’ll see what happens and hey, if you want to see me do this analysis live, I’m testing out a Youtube Live Stream today at 8am New York time. Here’s the link (I think) www.youtube.com but if you’re subscribed to my youtube page you should be notified I believe (based off of the test this morning).
Akil Stokes
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AUDUSD Trend Continuation TradeAnalysing the Bearish Trend on this pair, we can see that after the new structure low, we got a 382 retracement right at previous structure before continuing the downward movement down into the 1.618 extension before consolidating again.
If we are looking to get short and jump on the trend, the question we need to ask is where can we get involved?
So we build a case for entry.
First of all, looking left we can identify previous support which "should" now act as resistance.
Next we can draw in a Fibonacci retracement tool from the previous outside return to the new structure low and you can see we get a 382 retracement which ties in nicely with the previous harmonic move.
Next we can tae a Fibonacci retracement from the Starting Point to the most recent low and you see we get a 0.618 retracement right in the same level.
This identifies the pink area as nice probable entry zone or kill zone to get involve in shorting this pair.
Some high impact news out on the AUD tonight which may see the pair push up out of this consolidation. If we can push up into this zone we can then look to get involved.
Aggressive traders may enter at the 382 whilst more conservative traders may look for further filters strengthening their case for entry such as an AB=CD harmonic move, advanced pattern completion or even a double top on a lower time frame.
I will be keeping an eye on this pair over the next few days.
Good luck in the markets.
USDJPY: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern w/ Supply Zone Not too much on my radar today, which is perfect since I prefer not to be actively trading on Monday’s. With that being said, something that I have my orders locked and loaded on for later on is this potential bearish bat pattern on the USDJPY completing at 125.09 right around a 4hr supply zone. This one may also be worth watching as it approached 125 even as we know how these psychological numbers affect price action.
Last week was one of our rougher week’s in the Syndicate program. If you’d like to read about it check out the blog post I wrote reviewing my 33rd Week of Trading in 2015. tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
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GBPJPY:Gartley, Bat or Butterfly w/ video on Rising WedgesAs you can see, lots of potential action here on the GBPJPY following our Rising Wedge from earlier in the week. Yesterday I recorded a video talking about this rising wedge as well as a MUST own trading book, so make sure you head over to my Youtube page and check if you if you haven’t already
“A Trading Book Must Own & Trading Simple Patterns” www.youtube.com
Today I have a handful of advanced patterns on the radar including a bear gartley, bull bat, and a bull butterfly. I’m not too big on butterfly patterns so I’ll be ignoring that one but it’s there.
Aside from that, I just got short the AUDCAD from last night’s Syndicate video which is now featuring another rising wedge pattern inside of our ab=cd/2618 trade and I’ve got my eyes glued to EURUSD, GBPUSD & NZDUSD from some trading opportunities.
Yesterday was a no trade day for me, but hopefully I’ll get some valid signals today and end the week with a bang!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Looking for Shorts at this decision pointIf you saw my post yesterday then you know that I’ve been waiting for a potential short on this pair. (Here’s the video link explaining the trade www.youtube.com) My initial killzone was pretty large and after a brief test of the bottom levels of it, price has rallied back to the top providing me with the opportunity that I was waiting for.
The reason I didn’t enter the trade yesterday was strictly due to the fact that I wouldn’t get the risk reward that I wanted. Risk reward will still be difficult at this level because of how close the structure levels are but if I’m able to get the entry that I want, my stops may be short enough to make it work.
The London session extension gave us another equal measured move back into structure looking left and some Fibonacci extensions. The bulls gave a nice test of the highs and were beaten back after the first attempt to break through. As I type I’m watching this on the 15 minute chart waiting for a reason to enter, all depending on how this current candle completes. For targets I’ll be looking for a move back down into our previous new structure highs, and certainly looking to aggressively manage this one during my live trading room hours. We’ll see how this one pans out
“Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan”
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bullish Gartley (Repost)/How To Grow Your Account Video Hey guys, we've been watching this potential setup for a while & price action is finally in striking distance of you D point completion. Therefore I wanted to repost this chart just as a heads up. Keep an eye out for the *ADP Number at 8:15 Eastern.
I'm heading out of town so there will be no more post from me this week, however I did leave you guys a short video addressing a common question that I get about "How To Grow Your Trading Account" of course my answer probably isn't what you'd expect to hear, but I'm also not like most traders. Here's the link www.youtube.com
Please let me know what you think by leaving a comment under the youtube video. Don't forget to LIKE, SHARE & SUBSCRIBE too, that helps me out a lot.
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Akil Stokes
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USDJPY: Rising Wedge Into Previous Structure (read description)I’m looking at a rising wedge type of pattern forming here on the USDJPY that is working it’s way toward a pretty significant level of structure (look left). We typically see a breakout to the downside with this type of setup as it represents the market losing steam after a high volume move.
I’ll be looking for short opportunities on this pair in the Live Trading Room, but we might want to keep out eyes on the 8:15 ADP number as we are still looking at a very bullish dollar.
This is my last active trading day for the week as I’m headed out of town but I didn want to leave you guys with a short video titled “How to Grow Your Trading Account” Here’s the link Here's the link to my youtube video "How To Grow Your Trading Account" here’s the link.
www.youtube.com
Hitting the LIKE button, leaving a comment and sharing on my youtube page would be a BIG HELP!
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Akil Stokes
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EURJPY: Potential 2618 Trade with (How to video in description)Here on the EURJPY we have a potential 2618 setup in the works. I say potential because I have no clue what the future of this current leg is, all I can do is Identify, Predict, Decide & then Execute. Here’s a link where you can take the FREE training on this particular strategy (tradeempowered.com ) but essentially, what I’m looking at is a double bottom signaling a reversal and a retest of that that simple pattern as a way to hop on the next leg of the move.
Slow trading this morning were you guys over in London fast asleep? Anyway, aside from this setup all I’ve got is the GBPUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD on my radar this morning. I think GBPAUD is a steal of an opportunity, hopefully I’ll have a reason to get involved this week before I head out of town. The last thing I want to do is be worried about how my trade is going while up in the air.
As always good luck today traders and below are some links if you’re interested in any more free trading content.
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley Pattern w/ Great Risk v RewardNot a lot on my radar this morning which is perfect seeing how Monday’s are typically days where I let the markets wake up after the weekend. One pair that I’ve been continuing to watch closely has been the EURUSD which has provided a lot of opportunity over the past month or so.
The chart before you shows a potential bullish Gartley pattern completing extremely close to the “X” leg. As I shared with my Syndicate members in this morning’s trading video, this is a really good thing, because it puts us in a situation where we don’t have to risk as much and can potentially receive a greater reward if the trade goes in our direction.
I usually don’t take patterns too seriously until the “B” leg is broken so there may be a few bullish opportunities beforehand, but that’s something I won’t be interested in until tomorrow.
Good luck in the markets this week traders and as always, if you like this post PLEASE HIT the THUMBS UP button, and if you have any question, comments or would like to share your views on this pair don’t hesitate to type in below.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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NZDUSD: New Structure Low, Outside Return, New Structure Low?Hey gang, first of all thank you for all of the great comments on yesterday's youtube video "How Do Know If My Trading Strategy Is Failing" (www.youtube.com) You guys said that you've learned a lot and please continue to let me know exactly what that was in the comments section on Youtube.
Today I've got bearish cypher patterns on both EURJPY and EURAUD on my radar, but felt like sharing a structure based trade with you this Friday to mix things up. Similar to the AUDUSD (but not the same), the Kiwi has just broken and closed below a level of structure, with a much more significant level resting below. I like to say that structure acts like a magnet so I'm predicting that the market will be pulled towards that lower level. Therefore I'll be looking for reasons to short the Kiwi this morning in the Live Room as the market creates a pullback.
Obviously there;s no way to tell now if I'll actually get involved in the trade or not, but my eyes will be glued to this one on the lower timeframes. Wishing all of you a great weekend and do me a favor, if you liked the video above, make sure you subscribe to my channel. I'd like to inspire as many traders as possible so tell your trading buddies to check it out!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
USDCAD: It's Not Greedy, It's Just Another Good Opportunity A few weeks ago I made a very controversial call on the USDCAD looking to go long despite a major level of resistance and an advance pattern on the higher timeframe. (You can see the video explanation of that trade here www.youtube.com) Well after finally being taken out for the remaining part of my position Canada has come back to a level that looks prime for another buying opportunity and more importantly, just like last time, I don’t have to have that much at risk in order to get involved.
This is a simple structure based trade. Price action has come back down to test previous structure support, and IF this trend is going to remain intact, THEN that level should hold. (See how I snuck that IF/THEN thought process in there). If it doesn’t then I’ll be wrong and taken out of the trade.
With stops below the 1.2900 even handle number I only have about 35pips at risk, with a potential reward of around 100pips of reward if we move back across to the right shoulder. With that being said it may not be an easy ride, as I’ve marked off a few key levels of interest that I’ll need to pay attention to. This is certainly one of those trades that I will need to actively manage, especially with the FOMC statement on the horizon.
Good luck today traders and PLEASE continue to hit that LIKE button if you’re enjoying my posts here. Also check out my blog over at www.tradeempowered.com Yesterday I wrote one talking about my trading day and how being over prepared to trade is a good thing.
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Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
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EURUSD: Looking For Another Buying Opportunity I couldn’t have asked for a better start to this trading week. Unlike last week everything I’ve touched has turned to gold giving me a very nice cushion going into my first real day of active trading. There is a lot on my radar today including the EURJPY, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD & EURAUD, but I wanted to share my EURUSD idea with you guys since we’ve been tracking this pair a lot as of late (see related charts).
After pulling off massive profits on the big Gartley pattern, the Euro buyers is now giving some relief and I’m looking for an area where they might be interested in purchasing once again. My “A-Kill” zone rests from 1.1015’s-1.0920’s and I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on this pair in the live room looking for opportunities to get long.
I do think we can retest our previous major structure level at 1.12’s but I would be sure to get at least partial profits off at a much safer level like 1.11’s for example.
Here's a link to the blog post i wrote yesterday titled "A Much Needed Easy Day" tradeempowered.com
Also, I’m not sure how many of you use the app Periscope, but I’ll be doing an interview with FXTC Magazine around 4:30pm (Eastern) and they said they were going to stream it live on there. First I’ve heard of the app, but if you’re not doing anything feel free to check it out.
Good luck today traders and remember “Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan!”
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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Hoping for a Loonie turnaround against the greenback!The BoC’s (Bank of Canada) to reduce interest rates came as a bit of a surprise, but has given impetus to the US$ to extend its bull run against the loonie. The interest rate hike came early July, when the market was caught brooding ( as shown by the higher upper whisker of the candle just prior to interest rate increase – the formation is somewhat akin to a shooting star). Then with the interest rate decision the greenback rallied and now another important signal is pointing to a reversal, and that is the bearish harami candlestick pattern. With the hope that the Canadian economy starts gaining some traction with interest rate reduction, it can be hoped that the loonie would start gaining some ground against the greenback. Along with the bearish harmai pattern, Elliott wave X has seem to run its course and a 1.38% Fibonacci ratio pointing to a 1.30 target seems a plausible turning point. Uncertainty may imbue for a few more days as the MACD reaches greater overbought values, before a reversal, wave Y, would finally set in.
It would be better to look for opportunities for going long the CAD, but FED impending decision of interest rate hike would remain very important. Although the decision is imminent, but more macroeconomic variables other than employment may necessitate improvement, before the FED can think of giving a final verdict as to the timing of interest rate hike decision. Till then may the force be with loonie!!!
Some interesting links:
technical-forex.com
technical-forex.com
technical-forex.com
GBPJPY: Bullish Bat PatternHey traders! Great start to the week thus far with my EURUSD long from what 2 weeks ago finally banked some profits along with a few other traders that we were in. EURAUD from Friday got eaten alive but hey we can't win with them all.
Only a few trades on my radar this morning as Monday's are my training day but a simple bat pattern here on GBPJPY.
Today's Blog Post "A Much Needed Easy Day" tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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EURUSD: A Pullback to Where We Had Our Eyes Glued YesterdayHappy Friday traders! A lot of my radar today but I wanted to focus on the EURUSD since I know that’s a pair that many of you are tracking especially those of you who accepted my challenge from yesterday’s YouTube video. ( www.youtube.com )
Personally I’m still bullish from the Gartley pattern earlier this week, but if I weren’t I’d be all over the bull gartley that just completed & at the time of writing this is still hovering around those entry points. Aside from it being an advanced pattern this gartley also represents a pullback that is coming right back into a previous structure high & a zone that we were heavily watching in the Live Room yesterday. I’m not too certain about seeing a move all the way up to the bigger bat, but that’s where my initial targets are at for what I’m trading so trust me, I would not be upset it that happened. A little lower we have a potential cypher pattern as well.
Best of luck today gang, after killing the markets last week, it’s been a rough go for me over the past 4 days. Yesterday’s eurjpy trade played out well and like I said in my video, the worst case scenario in my Euro position is +80pips so that will help, but in general when you win big, you should always expect to donate some back.
Other pairs on my radar today are the gbpusd (currently long), gbpjpy, usdjpy, nzdusd (currently long) and the euraud.
See many of you in the live room at 8am eastern!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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GBPAUD: Hopping On The Bullish Trend Could be the Perfect StormThe radar is light once again with only a few pairs (including yesterday’s NZDUSD idea) still in my sights, but this opportunity on GBPAUD looks like a pretty good potential. GBPAUD has driven straight up since…well early 2013 & although the momentum seems to be slowing down, there’s absolutely nothing on the charts as of yet that says we’re going to stop anytime soon.
When trying to hop on a bullish trend I look for reasons to buy on the pullbacks & in this scenario I’ve got a deep Gartley pattern coming in right at our previous structure lows.
Add to that, on the fundamental side of things GBP has been one of the strongest pairs with BOE expected rate hikes anytime from December ’15-March ’16 while Aussie may be cutting rates. Last week I was able to catch the perfect storm on USDCAD (Video: www.youtube.com) we’ll see if we can do the same this week.
News wise we have AUD CPI out tonight at 9:30pm NY Time & A Bank rate Vote for the GBP out Wednesday morning at 4:30am NY Time.
A BIG THANK YOU for the massive response you guys gave me after listening to my interview with Brandon Clay from www.TradingStory.com I had a lot of fun doing it and I’m glad it was informative. I’ll put the link below for anyone that didn’t get a chance to check it out. Also don’t forget about that Syndicate special deal we have going on. Take advantage of it before it’s too late.
Interview w/ Trading Story tradingstory.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
My Videos: www.youtube.com
NZDUSD: Ask 2 ?'s "Where Should Price Go & How Can It Get There"With Jason out of town I’ll be pulling double duties helping out with the morning War Room as well and today I had about six potential trades on my radar. I typically don’t actively trade on Monday’s but I will be keeping an eye on the NZDUSD for multiple trading opportunities. Bigger picture I’m still looking for a chance to short this pair once we retrace to our previous support level, but currently we put in a nice base, which was broken above and could provide as a good place to get long if the market were to retrace to that level. . Sort of like a 2618 type of move.
Whenever I make my predictions about the market I don’t just ask myself “where is price most likely to go?” I also asked myself “How is price most likely to get there?” These simple questions have often given me the opportunity to catch the move before the move.
Obviously a lot can happen, but I always like to start off my week with a plan of “what to look for” that way I’m dialed in. What now? Well now I sit back and see what the market has to do. Remember as traders it’s our job to react, not to tell the market what it “will” do.
If you get the chance check out my Interview on Brandon Clay’s Trading Story website talking about my trading story & setting up a plan of action for you trades tradingstory.com
Best of luck this week traders, and let me know what you think about the interview.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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GBPUSD: 1HR Potential Bullish Bat & Cypher PatternsTwo potential patterns here on the Cable this morning. A potential bullish bat pattern in blue and a potential bullish cypher pattern in pink. Both should be tradable unless you’re using a massive stop loss for the bat pattern. In that case it’s best to choose one over the other beforehand so that you don’t get yourself into a potential revenge trading situation. Obviously make sure you follow your rules as far as what you trade and how much you’re allowed to risk per trade. I know for me the cypher pattern doesn’t meet those standards so if price action moves down there I’ll need to look for an alternate reason for entry. Most likely using the CTS or Combined Technical Score type of analysis (a point system/checklist for evaluating trades).
Something to keep in is that this is a very heavy news day with USD & CAD CPI releases at 8:30am Also the Michigan report as well at 10am.
If you didn’t catch it last night here’s a link to my Weekend Review video, where I review where I walk you through the USDCAD trade from earlier in the week as well as discuss what I believe are the best times, days & months to trade. I’ve set out a goal to reach 10,000 subscribers by the end of summer so it would be MASSIVE if you guys should help me out by subscribing to my channel and spreading the word. *I apologize for the ads in this week’s video but that’s what they do when you use actual songs instead of free youtube music I guess*
“A Controversial Trade/The Best Time to Trade” www.youtube.com
Anyway have a great end of the week and an even better weekend!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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EURUSD: Bull Gartley w/ Great Risk Reward*Just realized we have an ECB Press Conference Today at 8:30am NY. Be careful with this one up to that point* Great day of trading yesterday as I ended the day with a single win (usdcad) and a singles loss (eurjpy). For those familiar with those two trades, I'll take that any day of the week. For those looking for more information on yesterday's USDCAD trade make sure you subscribe to my youtube channel as I'll have a video up at some point today looking at it. (www.youtube.com)
Today's radar is thin, only the usdjpy, audusd and this eurusd trade (Dark Blue Gartley). This is a sloppy one (I'm watching it on the 4hr but wanted to show the bigger one as well) but it's a deep gartley pattern which if completed would provide an entry right near our X leg aka previous structure lows. Now, we know that FX data is often different depending on your broker so make sure you double check you "B" leg. Remember if it hits that 78.6 it's no longer a gartley pattern. Risk reward is great on this one 1:2 min for me and for some of you using less forgiving stops it's probably a lot more.
I've got some time before the Live Room kicks off so i'm going to do some reading and catch a little bit of the British Open before the opening bell. Good luck today traders and thanks again for all of the love shown yesterday.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com