understand the #CRYPTO market from the 10% view ditch retail PT2on part two we will discuss how the 10% looks at the markert, and first thing first is understanding market structure from the proper lens. this time around i will save time by only talking about my philosophy to the market vs opposing retail so lets dig in.
when approaching market structure one should ask. who why and where is price going . put yourself in the shoes of the market movers and the sharks that makes 90% of the money from public. we have to remember that trading is just essentially a transference of funds form one and to another but it never leaving the inner circle. so market structure should be approached as if i am moving the market where was the last time or area i opened a new idea or placed a trade, rather then trying to find where others are buying at support. now if you are the market mover you will come to understand the importance of paring orders. and how liquidity zones help allow price to flow smoothly. so for example if i am the few thats moving btc and i initially started buying btc around sub 30k areas where would i want to buy again at for the best opportunity cost? 30k or below so what would i do? easy book profits on my longs and start to shift to shorts now on the chart this will look like an accumulation area for retail. now remember for every buyer there must be a seller vice versa so as i book profits on my longs i am also unloading large selling pressure unto the market which will automatically cause some move in price. now because you are the market mover you cant just instantly switch all positions to short or sellout fully of your positions so you have to start stacking shorts around a set price thats good for the 10% . this will look like the highlighted area where it says sell stacking on the picture. now once large funds have about 50% of their ordes filled for thier shorts this is when price starts to fall. while price is falling there are two people in the markets the "dip buyers" filled with hopium and panic sellers that took the other side of your trade. these two players will help you move price as one the dip buyers help your orders get filled as u add on to your position towards the down side, and two the panic sellers help move price down faster by adding more selling pressure. both participants are nothing more then liquidity to you. in this case you cant let price run to fast as you will leave money on the table so what comes after you open your postion and you are now in profit. you partially close out and book profits . this leaves a wick usually resulting in the dip buyers feeling good and the shorters also feeling good as they have made some money riding your wave. the shark in you knows there can be more money made before the next move down so now it is time to allow price to recover while you continue to add onto your original short idea . this will form an area of accumulation and liquidity as retail put sl under this wick or area and limit orders will be placed around this area. so while thought are being gathered around a certain price area you give time for retail to choose a side to lose money on. as price continues to bounce fomo will enter the market bringing in more liquidity at higher prices these fomo buyers will be your liquidity to take the other side of your trade.
KNWOING THE MARKETS are filled with ignorance and emotion you understand that the longer price satys up the more money comes into the market which inturn mean more money made on the downside the more hope that comes into the market the more reckless traders become leaving positions open to be liquidated. BOOM you are ready to unload another wave after sell stacking hiddenly during the bounce now you have paired your short term buys with an open candle and you are now short with roughly anohter 10-15% of your allocated risk now in the market. u push price down before buyers can exit and run through the perceived support area which was really liquidity that would be used to book profits or further push price down. after this move retail is stuck in confusion to how their support area was broken, out of their confusion they revenge trade and once again try to buy the dip to recover the lsot funds. this time you play to their hand to bring back some trust and hope to the market so you hedge your shorts for the mean time and now take out the sellers who had their sell stops at the support and allow the "dip buyers " to win this battle. once again creating a wick or area of accumilation where retail will fall for the same time as before due to their ignorance. of course as price is pushing up on the bounce you are trying to pair your odrer now what are we looking for to pair orders? the closest possible price to our original entry or last entry. price moves up to the open of your position and you continue with your movement .
with these two moves in you have now taken out shorters and buyers and this cycle can keep happening over and over . now some will ask how can we see this happen next post i will show ypu what to look for.
as for now try to take this approach to your charts and see if you can find examples off this order playing out in the market
here are my marekt rules and terms so when looking at my post in the past future you can know what every term or symbol mean
IMA
btc headed lower 35k first stop here we are looking at the 1d chart of btc
starting from 1m down we have a swing high of november formed with the dec high respecting the nov body with an perfect 50 % rejection of the body.
now curently jan high testing the balance created on aug- sep while at the time of this writting it is holding strong for the shorts liquidity is being formed on the 40k price tag as well with many retail buyers putting sl under these daily or hourly wicks.
since the top is in the monthly target will be 35088
dropping down to the weekly we can see lots of liquidity that was built up during may- july around the price of 33-31k seller will want to break through the old swing low of sep 27 at 40752.
with that move being set we could see some order pairing and exit liquidity form which would cause a nice bounce that will give large funds to finish adding and re entering sell positions
the 1w showing its balance (true value) at 31.8 as well.
next is the 3d
the 3d we can see even more liquidity at the 40k price tag with a nice area of liquidity resting under 38k to 37.4k from jul 30 to aug 5th
the 3d u can see orders being stacked from dec 30- jan 4th with the clean wicks all respecting the 71 range o wick high to open but also forming liquidity above as well for later targets to be taken out
i dont think price will climb back up to this area no time soon as we have dec 5 high at 45902 which is very close to the open. a move back up to these areas would allow smart money to enter a last position to target the sub 40k areas.
lastly the daily
the daily shows even more seller stacking orders since jan 2-5 we can see this by the formation of the wicks and how clean and precise they are in respect tp the wick to body zone
as it stands btc hasnt broke under 40k just yet this tells me that smart money is waiting for enough orders to be set and more market particiapants to come in so they can sell to the dumb money buyers for easy ordering pairing/ exit liquidity. the longer btc stays above the more hope will enter the market with more hope more new positions will flood the market and less risk management will come in also. many traders will believe that 40k is some type of support and place sl under leaving an easy large target of liquidty under.
all in all im short until atleast 35k possibly 20k this does not mean btc cant bounce in the mean time but any bounces from this point cant be sustained untill 35k is hit so every bounce will be a fake out to allow smart money to add more short positions
all markets are the same !im making this post to let my followers know that i will be returning to trading fx for the time being. this is only untill i can find more solid setups in the crypto market as my main focus will always be crypto other makrets are way to slow and boring! that being said i want to show my followers one that im the greatest trader lol. two that all markets are fundamentally the same ! no matter the asset the way you trade corn is the same way you can trade beans, oil, gold or even the big boys favorite us30. dont listen to those gurus who have special sauce for every market as if one makrket moves inherently different as if the same people or institutions dont control all flows of cash and investment vehicles. i have back tested my techniques and found the same exact set ups i find in crypto.
also for those who dont kno i started out in the fx market but switched do to my retail ignorance at the time so im looking foward to killing the currency market with you all. my set ups will mostly be the pound pairs since they are the most volatile im not interested in trading turtle pairs.. in the post above you can see a set up on gbpnzd that is valid reason
why? the 1d is forming a 1d jefe bear
the 1d high is also at the previous open which is a key levek for profit booking
the 3d high also peaked at the open of the prev 3d open and there is a very clean low wick that retail will place their stops under
#BTC BULL TRAP OR #bitcoin PULL BACK?TODAY IS friday and btc is now moving up bringin all the moon boys back to life
btc has now hit its open bear target for profit booking/ possible full closure at 56887
btc also posted a 6hr bull jefe confirming bears closing out positions
outside of that no other meaningful price action is on the charts at this time
if we do an correlative analysis we can not that crypto total markett cap has printed a 1w bear jefe giving a sign of market crash incoming but also printing a bull jefe and key level at 2.616t if the market cap cant sustain above there then bye bye moon boys . btc makes up half of the market cap
on a broader outlook u can see a market shift taking place this week this does not mean a market reversal. this just means btc is showing signs of shifting ideas or targets on a time model/ target
with that being said btc key area it needs to take and push pass is 60322 the bear open balance target "they will hit for profit booking
if this target gets hit and thers no signs of immediate closure of positions then this will indeed be a bear trap with the next target coming to 54952 then 5428 and lastly 53715
also note that price is now moving up on friday which is a sign of time divergence bc most positions are being closed. this leading to a possible rally of the week only to open bearish trapping all the buttom buyers by allowing enough hope in the market to come in give enough time to past for liquidty to be built up and fomo buyers believing price will sky rocket going into next week.
lastly there will be an extreme amount of liquidity at 60322 for 1 this is where bears opened their initial positoin and 2 retail will place buy stops waiting for a break out and you will also have s/r traders placing sell limits. allowing "them" to enter take all positions out use their liquidity to get in easy and then push price down further. all in all the sign will be given by sunday 8:00 pm as to where we are headed for now a bounce is do if btc cant even get to 60k then the market shift will indeed be a market reversal
altcoin dip inbound?today we have the total crypto makret cap w/o btc
first thing that stands out is the 1d jefe bear that has fromed showing bears with a bull trap and aiming to drove prices down and shed some money off the markets overall
the 1d chart also shows a db which will entice retail to think a market is bouncing giving way for a possible liquidation run for almost all alts as this pattern will be noticeable on most altcoins charts and sl and limit orders will be placed under creating a liquidity pool for bearish moves
the 3d open target was hit bun ran lower showing willingness to go futher to the downside
the 3d was unable to get to the open 3d candle that stated the bear move
on the opposite a swing low 3d is forming given a a sign of revovery i the 3d leg of the swing is broken then the down side move is confirmed
the 1w low is not at open also giving me bearsih biasness to 1.33t
on the opposite i see an 1w bull jefe setting up
the higher the tf the stronger the biasness toward price targets
with that being set im expecting a 5% decrease in alt coin market cap before running higher to end the week bullish if the low of the week comes in on tuesday or wednesday that would be a good sign that profit booking have taking place and price is ready to run
overall im expecting a bearish open of the week to cuase a sell off and cheap prices for buyers to come in and move the markets
avax shorts very simple jefe bear pattern on the 1d after price hit its 1.618 extension
904 high now coming in at prev open for extra confirmation
price should not come back above the current high if candle if it does trade off and long to next fib level
i dont think this will happen since avax broke out last week buyers will be looking to book profits and re enter after prev open
904 also showing a db and we know thats easy money grab for the other side
3d also could be setting up bear jefe but thats a day out form now this will be updated upon 3d
vechain sells coming vet has now posted a very clean db enticing retail to enter thinking the pull back is over.
the 1d alos has a db at the samae area now drawing attention in s/r traders to form long ideas at magical support
with vet being up 6% at this time and pobabyly will go up another 5% over the weekend im calling a bull trap reason being
A OPEN BALANCE DOESNT GET HIT TWICE whenever i see this on my charts ik this is a trap for price to get flushed lower bc under those lows will be retail stops placed given "them an easy way to get their orders filled and massive liquidity for them to target . this same formation formed on btc at the 58k area and this induced retail to think " support was forming and it was "retesting and bouncing off only to trap buyers hours later
for this reason im looking at 0.14449104 as an entry/profit booking that will lead towards a move to 0.1161238
80% CHANCE THIS PLAYS OUT EXACTLY AS STATED
understand the CRYPTO market from the 10% view ditch retail PT 1here we have the total crypto market cap chart at first glance many will just see a "pull back or simply an engulfing. first thing retail will draw is try to call a random bottom without any price action to follow only hope or for the slightly advanced they will try to find some fib and use a random high to open. WRONG WRONG WRONG
looking at the rules from the chart the number one thing is that higher tf prices must and always come exactly or under an open this is law u can look on any time frame and draw a simple line from a wick and it will match up exactly or very close to a previous open balance of the given trend ! why is this ? because large funds or "they" must always pair orders. it is key to understand that large funds banks, prop firms, are naturally net long so the only way the can get in and out and keep good returns is by selling when retail buys, and buys with retail sells. and like mentioned before these buys or sells coming at a previous open. reason being " they are re-entering their original position to finish a move. or in a "pull back" scenario they are booking profits meaning that they are closing large orders automatically taking the other side of retail positions causing a dip in the market. this how wicks are formed
WICKS ARE NOT A REJECTIN OF PRICE! this will be explained shortly
lets think about the facts of the market and the conundrum retail logic has:
fact:1 90% OF RETAIL TRADERS LOSE MONEY
fact2: 80% of free content and 70% of courses are just teaching you the same recycled garbage "support & resistance " "supply & demand"(s&d zones is literally s&r with lipstick) harmonics, elliot wave, fibs, CANDLE STICK PATTERNS, TREND LINES or worst of all the "break out trader"
Now working off of these key 2 facts lets paint a picture of a world where 10% win and 90% lose
first let me preface this by saying that yes all of these pattern can be found on the chart but all of these patterns have one flaw they always leave a gap in understanding how price is delivered, and leaves traders to take mid probability guesses at the end of the day. this is not to say that money is not made off these concepts im simply pointing out the error in this approach to a market so lets dive in.
if 90% traders lose money and 70-80% of trading content are these retail concepts, then it is safe to assume that all traders are fundamentally trading the same patterns and if large a majority are trading the same patterns shouldn't that mean a larger percentage of traders make money? yes indeed but this is not the case for a number of reasons
REASON#1: these patterns are too simple and easy to trade any body can draw magical support and resistance lines. do you really think large fund traders are opening their charts and finding 3 wicks marking a line saying this is support and resistance ? i think not if trading was that simple and easy everyone would make money but once again we know this is not true.
REASON#2: these pattern dont give a real understanding of the market or how would large funds enter exit or book profits. at best s&R /s&D just gives you areas of accumulation, and cant tell you when price should move or even gives signs of price getting ready to move instead the trader is stuck on the side waiting for a "rejection" at a magical line they drew on there charts. how can you understand price from this logic. then for the times traders enter off of a "rejection" and lose that given trade their best reason behind why is that the s/r area just failed or "broke out" in the opposite direction. this lack of understanding/wishful thinking leaves traders to believe that the markets are random and price has no set rules. when this is simply not true. if price was random what will keep it from falling to zero or shooting to the sky at any given moment. there is always rules, structure , and control in every market.
REASON#3 : you cant gather accurate data based on a random outcome if i was to ask any trader what is the probability of there given support line OR the probability of a given candle stick pattern such as the a bull/ bear flag they couldnt answer this question. this a major issue without accurate info for your case study you cant improve on your strategy. you cant find high probability set ups. then we all know what happens after s/r isnt good enough because their lack of understanding ... INDIDCATORS
REASON #4: all retail logic is subjective with no hard set rules of how price should move or high probability outcomes of what price is expected to do
REASON #5 INDICATORS ARE LAGGING: most to all indicators are lagging indicators meaning they only print a result or show "divergence" after price has showed its hand so while retail has 10 different indicators because there logic doesnt help them predict the market or understand price action. they use lagging indicators that FOLLOWS AND PRINTS AFTER PRICE. how ironic is this , most people think that crypto is too volatile and random and you need indicators to help make decision or where price is headed this is simply false if you can see the set up in real time you will get the alert before any indicator. not to mentions 9/10 the traders given indicators doesnt always give the same signal. so what do you do when you have an price at support, macd alerting a sell, an evening star formed (BULLISH PATTERN) and a rsi saying overbought? see how this can be confusing and leave you with no clue what to do. even then what happens when price is showing you bullish behavior while all of your indicators are flashing sell, and you end up taking a sell to lose the trade because you believed in the holy grail indicator set up.
By now you should be able to see the huge problem with this approach to the market. so now lets explore my "theory" or approach to the market and see if i can correct all these problems WITH NO CONTRADICTIONS
1. the market is not random at all
if the market was random there would be no way to profit on a mechanical level
2. the market is a living creature.
3 just like humans the market has habits and rules it must follow to live
4. there is always somebody in control & THEYRE TOO BIG TO HIDE THEIR FOOT STEPS!
lets dig deeper before we start lets remember the natural law of polarity. if one thing is true then in turn the opposite must be true. simple if then statements should equate to one statement of truth with no contradictions. like mentioned previously there is no way a market can be random how in the world would hedge fund be able to offer a set rate of return in a random market. who would put such large sums of money in a casino like environment. with this understanding there should be key things or signs to give us a high probability in which way the market would move, and their is exactly that. (we will get to this in part two) So if the markets are not random then we should be able to see signs or repeatable patterns. this we know is true ie candle stick patterns. expanding on this belief this must also mean the market has habits just like any other living creature these habits easily identifiable once we look for them. next the market must follows rules to live this idea is backing of the thesis that markets are not random, in order for anything to survive it must have some type of discipline. Lastly their is always somebody in control and "they" are way to large to hide their footsteps. where is the proof for this??
ex#1 if you open any chart of your choosing on any time you and mark all wicks you will quickly realize that all wicks are exactly or very close to an previous open on that tf. this is most easily seen on higher timeframes (pt2 will show many examples) as stated in the beginning the reason behind this occurrence is that the people or algo thats moving price loves to get back in at previous opens of large moves or opens right before the " break out". if you take the time to go on your charts you will see its always been there. this is true for reversals as well but that wont be covered on this post for now im laying down the foundation. another reason for price to come back to previous opens is that this is the easiest way to pair orders and 9/10 at these key open levels retail will have limit orders making it easy for "them" to get out/ book profit.
ex#2 if you take a look you will see that crypto always move during london session with the low almost always coming in within 3:am then a pull back / reversal at 5:am to continue into ny open at 7/8 am if you open any chart you can clearly see the low or high of the day being set around 3 then some type pf pullback/ reversal to continue with original move at 7/8 am with the high/ low of 7/8 am NY SESION staying in tact for the rest of the day. also if the pull back didnt happen by 8 most likely at 9:00 am it will occur. now the reason is due to the natural way funds flow in any market london is the most liquid session so traders are able to move price then from 8-11 am is an overlap, which will give a reason for price to pull back/ reverse allowing ny traders to enter and also catch the move of the day. from there the next key time is 8:00 pm. you will notice price always does a fake out or run up in the opposite direction during these times. why ? to entice retail to think they are missing a move fomo in only profit for a little bit then loose it all at london open/ session . its key to note that if price is moving in the opposite way of the trend around 8/9 pm that is a sign of time divergence (will cover clearly in pt 2) , and also a continuation sign. the reason its a sign of time divergence is because large position traders are not in the market most traders around this time are not on their chart to move the market. large funds dont trade 24/7 dont be fooled by this move its just a trap and a easy way for "them" to entice you to take the opposite of "their" trades. to finish this point its a sign of continuation also for the simple fact that if price ran in the given trend all day there wouldnt be much room to take positions at good prices and price will leave the "market movers" which we know cant happen. with these two examples we can see 1 the predictability of the markets leaving randomness out, we can see the market happens, we can see how the markets rest just like any other creature, and lastly see how "they" control and leave footprints on the chart without most people even seeing it.
now i will like to explain what are wicks in relativity to how they are formed and also fits into this understanding. wicks are not REJECTIONS thats retail ignorance. going back to the fact that 90% lose money this must also mean that 10% of the winners HAVE 90% OF THE MONEY IN THE MARKET. this must be true if this doesnt make sense or you cant grasp this ask yourself if 90% of people loose money where is these funds going ? TO THE 10% very simple concept and if not the 10 % who else could possibly have the money ?? exactly ! so if the 10% have 90% of the money how cold price get "rejected" if there is no opposing force to reject price. do you really think that out of that small 10% of winners they would fight for price and reject each others orders when its alot easier to work together or take to the same trade ideas and take the larger percentage of traders money.
also remember for this rejection to happen this must mean an entity buying or selling at the wick (at price forming the wick in real time) and we know retail cant move price. i hope this is starting to make sense. this another reason why retail concepts doesnt work.
instead a wick is simply accumulations at premium prices and profit booking. picture this the 10 % opens a position at premium price in the form of a wick priofits 5,10 even 15% profit with a large position size at some point they want to book profits. so what happens they close orders at previous open of a move where there is liquidity resting, and when this happens their large positions automatically goes against the trend simply being because the size of their orders moves prices. so now if most or all of the 10% does this at the same time or close to the same time what will we see on a chart? a wick or even a huge wick, which retail will think its a rejection, some break out traders enter, some traders panic and close making it even easier for them to exit and cause more pressure in the wick formation. i hope you can start to see the real beauty of this market and understand how prices really moves. this is the foundation of my approach to the market i will probably do a 7 part series showing live examples previous examples and go in great detail to further prove my point
BACK to the charts if you look u can see a classic jefe bear pattern that just formed( will explain this pattern next lesson ) and the 3d/ and 1w open has not yet been reached showing signs of further downward movement REMEMBER ALL OPENS MUST GET HIT ALL ORDERS ,MUST BE PAIRED
now once the 3d open has been hit we can look for sign of reversal until the bears are in control
key take aways 3d open still not hit and 1d open are still not hit with 1w jefe playing out meaning market will follow 1w strucutre untill a open is met
WHATEVER TIMEFRAME U FIND OPENS BEING HIT OR ORDERS BEING PAIRED THEN 80-90% OF THE TIME THEY WILL TARGET OPEN BALANCES ON THAT TIME FRAME do dont get faked out by a wick and by now you should know how wicks work
IF you enjoyed this post make sure to like comment share amd follow for more updates . FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @YEKUNA1
DOT READY TO BLOW Dot has now finished its pull back in pull back hour (8-10 am)
key take away is that the 904m(15hr) chart has now formed a swing low at a bull test area and has stayed above this zone (pink line)
the london sessioned opend bearish and reversed at 5:00 am ( key reversal/ pullback continuation hour for london )
on the 6hr chart u can see a finall position build or low at prev bullish open showing signs that price has allowed enough buyers to get in and move markets
also giving time for "them" to either close or hedge positions
note any time you can see a wick at an prev open in a given trend this strong continuation pattern the thing you want to see is price push down into open and move away quickly things
we can see this on both the 3h and 6hr chart
uni HEDGE OFF OF TUESDAY SHORTSuni has beec accumilationg for nearly 3 months
with this down side move uni now has posted a low at an 3d and 1d open giving strong possible for reversal
904m chart also showing a posssible swing low now forming with the daily low now being in
key to take not that london opend bearished and reversed at 5 am (usually reversal continuation time)
moving into ny session there has been a slowing of momentum leading to hint at price is waiting for larger palyers to enter giving them time to either hedge shorts or book profits all together
6 hr showing a want to psuh higher now that the london 6h candle pushed into the asain high at also posted lows with a relative db forming right after and another test to psuh higher
the more timesprice hits a "support/ resistance " zone the weaker it gets
all in all this position is a hedge from my shorts off of tuesday with a possible closure and full longs opening up
btc longs read ?!! target 63046 BTC is having similar price action to ltc as previous post. so if btc 6hr close at the previous low or close to its most likely will form a jefe bull. reason being that "they have put enough fear in the market and brung out enough panic sellers to pair thier orders with. since panic seller are out and retail sells are in that means its enough liquidity to fill large buy orders and cfully close shorts ! if jefe pattern forms firt target is 63046
ltc longs?ltc bears have booked profit of a 6hr and 3hr open but 904 1d and 3d opens are in tact meaning price could fall further if they dont take bears opens out
since profit booking is taking place they are now hedging shorts and possibly closed full positions if the 6hr candle close around prev 6hr low a classsic jefe bull will form showing bears fully clsoing positions
bears have put enough fear in the market to exit positions with retail panic sells providing liquidity for them to exit without pushing price down further and also open buys for hedge or even reversal with retail sellin to them at discounted price ! "they always buy when you are selling and selling when you are buying.. SIMPLE ORDER PAIRING AND POFIT BOOKING TO MOVE IN AND OUT
vet longs?takig a small long position on vet it hit its 3d open with momentum showing bears profit booking and opening long with panic sells #classicmove placing sl under prev low if it gets hit the possible more downside but take note that the low came in on tuesday which is bullish in a bullish market. i closed my shorts on time but was a lil to slow with the longs due to how fast bears closed and sharing ideas on twitter. check back in at 8 am to see more insisght
dot shorts dot havent reached its open target but is booking profits on 904 opens 1d,2d,3d, opens are still OPEN ha but for now low of the day is in bears have enough panic sellers to close partials. hedges are opening off the panic seller liquidity test coming in at prev balance accumilation area if it can run through with enough energy where good to open longs for now i see more bears taking money