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Imbalance

New anomaly of market today ! - LDTP #2Let's do the point ! Yesterday we spoke of imbalances especially here in breakout (you can find it attached to this one) and how pleasant it is to have finally a technical candle. New candle today, new anomaly and always more pleasure ! First like yesterday we saved the support on the closing so we are always in plan to search an entry pattern here. But what interest me the much, like yesterday, it's volumes. Volumes speak a lot and actually they speak way more than candles. Yesterday we did an exhaust and a breakout, typically a trend ending selling volume candle with more than two time the average volume. But look at today ! It's way better cause we have an anomaly here and simple to note : we have more volume than a candle which is twice the size of today. What that mean ? To give picture to beginners, I will say that a volume is an exchange between buyer and seller and more you have exchange more your interest evolve on a side and more your price move. So more you have volumes more the size of your candle increase (much more complicated but let's make this shortcut here). How can we explain this anomaly ? Simple fact, if you have an equivalent interest of buyers and sellers for a same price, your price don't change but your volume increase. So here we have a really strong interest at this price. I will be clear, retails are selling, institutionnals are buying. Nothing else can counter as much volumes here. What do I expect next ? The pattern is clear (and if you always don't know it, here it is : Exhaust -> Pressure -> Volumes (on a level / support obv)), we had exhaust yesterday, we was searching for pressure, and we have an internal pressure. So now we wait for buying volumes. I spoke of buying volumes a lot and we search them also a lot during the past few supports/weeks and we never find them. It's possible to don't find them again, but patience is the key , they will come, sooner or later ! I also spoke yesterday of the importance of imbalance for the future of BTC, I added two area of interest for it on chart (not the exact imbalance but the area I target in my strategy). We didn't retest it rapidly today, so I maintain my opinion, and with the candle of today I want to add that with the accumulation institutionnal did today if we want to reject the imbalance and run on the bear market limit (around $28,200), institutionnals will dump their orders in the imbalance to buy lower so it will be brutal. So I maintain that I think we will come back retest the imbalance and two possibilities : breakout which mean buying volume and V-Turn / short U-Turn pattern here ; or reject which mean new selling volume, new exhaust and new low which will bring us in the next support area (gray area). We could expect to see retest of the low before with a lot of buying pressure but I don't expect the price to close into the gray area before to retest the imbalance. Also I would like to warn of the possibility to see a panic buy today. It's a standard reaction after this two anomalies. So you could have to control your emotions if it happen ;) "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" PS : Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
by Kentg
Finally an interesting day ! - LDTP #1Let's do the point! Long time since the last update, yesterday I was commenting the past idea (you can find it attached to this one) and I said that one week past and how much it was boring days. Here we have actions, and so things to say. About the past idea : the observation of the lack of buying volumes said true, which mean another time that patience is the key ! It's always better to be late in a trend than be early in a trap ! For today, it's a breakout, it's an exhaust, it's a liquidation and it's not a flush ! And that change all, you don't reverse market on a flush, the only thing gave by a flush is a panic movement and the next interest area. And, by the way it happen rapidly, price is almost always retest in a flush. I spoke a lot in the past ideas of the Wyckoff pattern and the support area around $42,000 - $39,500. We didn't find anything interesting to exploit. And now we finally break them so we will focus on next area to look for entry pattern. But before speak of entry, let's focus on the candle of today because it speak so much technically. If you look at volume we have more than two times the average volume, we broke a support and we took the liquidation of the stop hunt of the trap, so its a breakout AND an exhaust. It change a lot of things in front of a standard exhaust, because here we have a resistance in the candle, something you can't see if you don't know how to read volumes through a candle. If I had to picture it for beginner I would say that during a breakout your price is moving strongly, and by the fact you don't find as many buyers for the over quantity of sellers, you just jump the price. Exactly like if you had a gap on other assets. These "holes" in volumes are names imbalances and act like resistances/supports. And as flushs (which have a lot of imbalance in their wick) these imbalances are always retest because they acts like magnets by the fact they are anomalies of market so it's generally revised. I don't know if you get the picture of it but I don't think I'm able to do it in a technical way in english =) . So that explain the fact I'm pretty sure that this candle will be the key of the next days analysis because an exhaust is the first step of a reversal pattern and on the other side a breakout is the first step of a continuation pattern. So on this imbalance retest we will know what we are going for : BULL or BEAR market. And now we will speak of price, if you look the chart you will find the conjuncture of two primary support (yellow lines) that I'm looking for reversal pattern. I like the fact we stop over it today, that don't mean anything else than the fact it's well a support but it's the first step to draw good resistances and supports if you want to have good signals. If most of your lines and area don't act like they should that mean you don't draw it well. That don't mean that they can't be break but you should see reactions on it, or at least a breakout which mean there was something here. If the price just passed through it I strongly invit you to work how you draw them. And if I had an advice to give to you to draw them its : Don't try to find lines which match with your actual price or the signal you want to see or confirm, take away the actual price go back on your chart draw them and then see where it is from your actual price. I already said in one of the past ideas : "we are on support until $39,500 and we are not in bear market until $28,200". We broke $39,500 and we are always over $28,200, nothing alarming for the moment, it's always funny to see how much panic occurs on social media and in beginner reaction. But that really show one thing, people which invest money in it don't manage the risk, whatever the price go, if you have a plan, you never get surprise. And it's obviously not the case of people whose jump in by fear to miss something. So plan your trades and be patient . I will be honest I think the answer for the long term direction of cryptocurrencies will be in the imbalance I spoke of. If we go retest it rapidly it will not be relevant but if we go retest it in the next few days the reaction on it will be the answer to the question "BULL or BEAR ?". A last thing, I've posted a short signal analysis on december 28th, I said that I didn't took that one, one reason was that I don't short a bull market, this signal just reached his target and I don't feel like I missed anything. Result-orientism is one of the thing you need to learn to manage to be efficient in trading and it's a perfect transition to say, like always : "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" These updates on cryptocurrencies / BTC market will now be named with "LDTP #..." (Let's do the point) in title for people who want to follow only these ideas. PS : It was hard to find words to be both technical and understandable for everyone tonight cause I'm really tired. Sorry if there is mistakes in my english. Like, follow or even comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue! This idea will be probably update until I did a new idea.
by Kentg
2
SMC !!! BASED BITCOIN (BTCUSDT) TA SCENARIO I am going to explain the revolutionary SM concept in a later educative post. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you enjoyed this post and agree with me, a like and a sub would be very nice : ) If you have any other ideas or simply disagree, manifest yourself in the comments ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Stay updated for more content Have a nice Day : ) Bye! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by xtekky
Bitcoin OlympicsLook at the similarities between both wyckoff accumulations. The only thing that scares me is that all of crypto twitter expects this. crypto twitter might not be the best indicator, but media is a part of how the fear & greed index is messured so i think it's worth mentioning. What i mean is that, if everyone expects it to drop towards $40,5k one last time, there will be so much liquidity below that level. This might cause large institutions or the composite man to send bitcoin below 40k towards lower imbalances or orderblocks...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Juniorl09
XAU/USD - Manipulation candlesWe recently had a break of structure on gold, creating a pool of liquidity on the downside. Gold recently tested off an order block and started moving to the downside on the 1h time frame. But on the smaller timeframes just above that previously, evidence that manipulation candles have come into play can be seen much clearer. The candle that look out liquidity on the smaller times may get mitigated before price starts to move lower. There are two potential entry points I've marked out, an IC on the 15 min timeframe, and an IC on the 5 min. The first take profit target is a 1:12 risk to reward which is more likely to play out, even if it's a temporary move. The other two are a bit more ambitious, but if this is truly a break of structure then hopefully we can see price make it's way the eventually. Also looking at both sides of the coin, there is still a lot of imbalance in price above the entry area, and on the daily timeframe price looks very bullish. So there is also potential that price could go past entry and stop loss area to rebalance price first before making its way down eventually, hence the low risk, high reward setup.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by manudimamdo
1
GBP Expecting Lower PricesThis is the Daily Timeframe. KEEP IN MIND: This analysis is solely based upon Institutional Structure, nothing else. When an impulse takes out a previous low, it creates a Break of Market Structure (BMS), showing signs of weakness. When a previous low has been violated, the swing high that was formed prior to the violation of the low turns into a Protected High (PH). This means that we expect the market to sustain bearishly and stay BELOW the Protected High. GBP has kept breaking lows and creating new PH's whom none of them have yet been violated to the upside. I expect GBP to keep moving lower. I am only bearish until we break a newly created PH to the UPSIDE , as this means that we might move higher. But as long as GBP keeps doing these moves we can expect GBP to weaken in the long run. The Weekly timeframe is doing the exact same thing, and I expect GBP's price to go lower for the next months UNTIL we break a PH to the upside, showing signs of strength.
CME:6B1!Short
by Bastianelton