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Imbalance

GBPAUD short potential for the weekAs we open the week following the bearish weekly last week, we can see we are nearing the red supply zone. The purple line there indicated a imbalance from the weekly TF. Today being Monday i can expect the price to be moving in the opposite direction that it intends to from the rest of the week. If the red zone rejects, we can see ourselves pushing all the way back down into 1.83000 for the week. However if broken we can continue back into the highs.
Short
by opes_trading_group
EURUSD Trade Idea Dec 13-17 2021The Logic: Overall EU is bearish from the weekly and Monthly TFs. Also on the weekly TF price has broken key structure, moving towards the downside, hence I'm anticipating a pull back to the OB which caused the break of structure, then a continuation downwards. On the daily TF, price has created a shift in market structure upwards, possibly signaling the pull back has begun. With this SMS I'm anticipating that price will return below the shift as liquidity has been engineered in the area of the shift and as such I'll be looking for buys inside my 1H POI until price returns to the 1W POI that initially created the BMS downwards.
Long
by ThePhoenicx
End of US30 Correction? - Bullish moveOverall trend: Bullish Current state: Correction and daily and 4h demand zone Structure being broken? Not yet. Important events coming up? NFP news tomorrow So let's begin to take a look at the higher timeframe bias (this is very critical in trading supply and demand), it can be clearly noticed that the overall sentiment of the market is bullish. So we can put that one in our checklist on top. The price just currently bounced off on a Daily and 4H demand zone, as it is indicated on the graphical illustration. Since we were in a strong bearish move, we need to see market structure change. Since a trend exist out of: HH, HL or LH or LL. We will now be patient and wait for the price to break structure, create a new HH and test another order block before moving up. From the fundamental side of events, we have NFP news tomorrow, which will have a huge impact on the overall market. We are entering December, where a lot of bonuses are paid out and people pumping money into the stock market. Be safe in these times and happy trading you all!
ULong
by vuetratrading
Second 🦀 Almost Complete! USOIL - First Daily crab complete with nice rejection now I'm expecting price to drop and finish the next, the D point lands in a very nice PRZ. I'm currently taking a LTF scalp long based on PA to cover potential imbalances before the price breaks the low and completes the crab. Let me know your thoughts? ** Disclaimer *** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
TVC:USOILShort
by benalistarfx
USD CHF - Holding shorts - trade updateHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level. Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear. Daily chart updated Refer to previous idea for more information Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur. The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here. Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high - April 2019. Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. . The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure. Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling. The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting. Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell. 4Hour chart provides clear entry positions Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders and a break of structure re-active sell. This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view. Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows. DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure. Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description. Link to idea: Previous idea SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Remember to follow risk management and ensure partials are taken to sustain account compounding Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
4
GBP AUD - Correction completed? Longs addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; or below Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly Inverse Fibonacci 1. this shows the inverse Fibonacci upon the previous imbalance whereby price has created a pivot structure on the weekly chart at 1.9158, price created a low formation to create a reversion of "0" at the base of 1.85, GBP AUD is very good at correcting to 61.8 or 70.5% using Fibonacci, personally the structure of this pair tends to ignore the 50% pivot structure as the pair is open to larger engulfing moves. . -0.618% Pivot imbalance reversal Overall this extension target was important to await the initial move, creating the High and low to allow the corrective imbalance to imbalance structure to navigate itself. Those who can form a basis understanding of the imbalance zone at will be able to place shorter term but maintain long opportunities as the overall monthly shows a buying imbalance probability in higher favour than sellers. Monthly higher highs The two highlights on this chart has been purposely left to show the 0.236 and 0.382 retracement zones where highly probable bullish moves will occur. Looking left the white eclipse which is circling the bearish candle, note how the second highlight retraces perfectly to the body of the wick, closes out and nets - this is our net imbalance whereby price has closed out in favour of the bullish manoeuvre which will now show probability over >50% in favour of the bulls. The second formation of this zone forming an imbalance is for two reasons which will be explained. Revert to the below chart to see why this 0.236 is important. I. The imbalance candle has netted off and also in combination with higher low formation upon the monthly shows the buying opportunities to now test "0" and continue the trend to the up and right. The netting is important here as the body of the bearish candle forming the imbalance at II. The formation of the weekly and monthly inverse Fibonacci and Extension Fibonacci indicate a clear pivotal reactive zone where the inverse completion pattern is now overextended, and the monthly extension pattern is showing a corrective structure for a change of hands. Daily Correctional Channel The daily correctional channel in conjunction with the weekly shows the correctional pattern of the creation and formation of the higher lows and lower highs. When plotting the trendlines upon the swing low of the formation "0" and the correctional pullback for the continued trend of selling over the short, medium term at 61.8% - 70.5%. The channel lines are formed in line with top wick placed at "1" and now the channel will bounce within these zones probability. Where the lowest low or completion has formed, the -0.618 has provided a change of hands upon a buying imbalance. Now price looks to break the trend and resume longs at a discounted price. The next step is to break the formation of the upper trend line, break and retests are a highly probable scenario where the zone will be testing the "0" and ultimately on a daily timeframe (once a high has formed) a retest of a pivot point be it -0.27 in this case). Trades can be added here with confirmations for both buys and correctional sells for hedging. AUD USD Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Inverse correction pattern completed upon the weekly, but will now look to test the monthly zone where the AUD has not retested the lower imbalance of 0.70 as yet. The weekly trendline if plotted will show a formation of lower highs but at the same time forming higher low pivots, so where price will come to an apex, we will have to await the confirmation of the next move. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
4
Potential 🦀USD/CHF - Potential Crab Pattern Forming on LTF, HTF we have a double bottom forming (Not confirmed until we get a neckline break so right now i'm analyzing price based on LTF price action/structure. We have a lot of imbalance left over from the weekly pushes and the D point lands on a strong OB (Which will potentially make a nice sell too whilst also covering previous imbalances and will take out trapped liquidity) I expect to drop towards the 1.23285 level before rising to then break the DH. let me know your thoughts!
Long
by benalistarfx
EURUSD 4 hour breakdownEURUSD 4 hour expectational order flow still intact and still bearish. I did think price was going to grab the liquidity at 1.6200 before tuesday/wedensday bearish impulse, but its a good lesson of just because you know where the liquidity is, it doesn't mean you know when the market is going to take it. But yes we reacted to the 4 hour order block and broke structure nicely leaving some imbalanced price. we are now sat at an daily order block which we could see a reaction from taking price back into discount market. again the new 4 hour structure and order block at 1.5900 will be vital in holding structure. probably won't try and trade Monday and just let price develop and see if we are going to continue straight bearish or retrace into the range. let the market make its mind up and follow the money
by AarronWoods
NZDJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 78% short on NZDJPY, making me bullish. On the 1D, higher highs and higher lows have been made, giving me no reason to go bearish. There's also divergence between price and Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV). CDV has trended up short term, while price had trended down. Suggesting a weak sell. Price has seemed to find support right around 80.00, a nice whole number price. However, right below price is a large 4h imbalance inside of a 1D imbalance, where 50% of each imbalance lies right around 79.50, a nice half level. This area is also around the 50% retracement of the recent bull run if you apply a fib. My TP1 is the 4h imbalance that hasn't been filled, which is right around 81.5, another half level. Since this imbalance didn't break the previous short term market structure, I think price is likely to surpass this imbalance. Hence, my TP2 is targeting last month's highs at 82.5, another half level. A triple top formed right below last month's highs, providing liquidity for price to go to last month's highs, making it a likely target in my opinion.
Long
by NotFrank247
CADJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 68% short on CADJPY, making me short to mid term bullish. There are also more short term inefficiencies in CADJPY to the long side than the short side. Price has formed support right above the 50% mark of a 1D bullish imbalance, making me even more bullish. Looking for entry at the 50% mark of the 1D, and an ultimate TP at a major 1h imbalance. Plenty of places to trim along the way. Notice how the orderblocks and imbalances I marked up either start at, or have 50% levels around whole 25 pip values (quarters theory)
Long
by NotFrank247
6