Imbalance
EURUSD Trade Idea Dec 13-17 2021The Logic: Overall EU is bearish from the weekly and Monthly TFs. Also on the weekly TF price has broken key structure, moving towards the downside, hence I'm anticipating a pull back to the OB which caused the break of structure, then a continuation downwards. On the daily TF, price has created a shift in market structure upwards, possibly signaling the pull back has begun. With this SMS I'm anticipating that price will return below the shift as liquidity has been engineered in the area of the shift and as such I'll be looking for buys inside my 1H POI until price returns to the 1W POI that initially created the BMS downwards.
GBPAUD BUYING THE IMBALACELooking at gbpaud we can see an imbalance on the higher timeframe which could indicate start money (Big Banks) were in the market, which caused the down trend with out a pullback. Buying the imbalance as price has to fill up the IMB = Imbalance before price can continue the downward trend.
End of US30 Correction? - Bullish moveOverall trend: Bullish
Current state: Correction and daily and 4h demand zone
Structure being broken? Not yet.
Important events coming up? NFP news tomorrow
So let's begin to take a look at the higher timeframe bias (this is very critical in trading supply and demand), it can be clearly noticed that the overall sentiment of the market is bullish. So we can put that one in our checklist on top.
The price just currently bounced off on a Daily and 4H demand zone, as it is indicated on the graphical illustration. Since we were in a strong bearish move, we need to see market structure change. Since a trend exist out of: HH, HL or LH or LL. We will now be patient and wait for the price to break structure, create a new HH and test another order block before moving up.
From the fundamental side of events, we have NFP news tomorrow, which will have a huge impact on the overall market. We are entering December, where a lot of bonuses are paid out and people pumping money into the stock market.
Be safe in these times and happy trading you all!
Second 🦀 Almost Complete! USOIL - First Daily crab complete with nice rejection now I'm expecting price to drop and finish the next, the D point lands in a very nice PRZ.
I'm currently taking a LTF scalp long based on PA to cover potential imbalances before the price breaks the low and completes the crab.
Let me know your thoughts?
** Disclaimer ***
These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Will the Supply Hold and new low created?After the slow climb back up to the Hourly Supply and then a big drop on Friday 19th Nov where will next week take this pair?
I'd imagine quite a few are looking at longing now as there is plenty of space to make its way up if the Supply doesn't hold.
As usual with this pair it will whip around but keep the levels marked out and trade with the order flow.
GBPUSD LONG PENDINGThis is an analysis of GBPUSD that shows a promising BUY setup. From where price is, there is a lot of sellside liquidity because of the equal swing lows. That liquidity needs to be purged giving us a chance to reach the Bullish ORDERBLOCK which offers market makers a discount price since it is at 61.8 of the Fibonacci sequence. This move should occur during New York session 16 NOV 2021.
Potential 🦀USD/CHF - Potential Crab Pattern Forming on LTF, HTF we have a double bottom forming (Not confirmed until we get a neckline break so right now i'm analyzing price based on LTF price action/structure.
We have a lot of imbalance left over from the weekly pushes and the D point lands on a strong OB (Which will potentially make a nice sell too whilst also covering previous imbalances and will take out trapped liquidity)
I expect to drop towards the 1.23285 level before rising to then break the DH.
let me know your thoughts!
EURUSD 4 hour breakdownEURUSD 4 hour expectational order flow still intact and still bearish.
I did think price was going to grab the liquidity at 1.6200 before tuesday/wedensday bearish impulse, but its a good lesson of just because you know where the liquidity is, it doesn't mean you know when the market is going to take it.
But yes we reacted to the 4 hour order block and broke structure nicely leaving some imbalanced price. we are now sat at an daily order block which we could see a reaction from taking price back into discount market.
again the new 4 hour structure and order block at 1.5900 will be vital in holding structure.
probably won't try and trade Monday and just let price develop and see if we are going to continue straight bearish or retrace into the range.
let the market make its mind up and follow the money
XAUUSD Trade IdeaGold continues to be bullish, showing no signs of weakness, with significant breaks of structure to the upside. I anticipate the bullish momentum will continue up to the D1 POI, (Weekly High) denoted on the chart. After that I anticipate full bearish momentum. Will be looking for buys up the POI.
NZDJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 78% short on NZDJPY, making me bullish. On the 1D, higher highs and higher lows have been made, giving me no reason to go bearish. There's also divergence between price and Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV). CDV has trended up short term, while price had trended down. Suggesting a weak sell. Price has seemed to find support right around 80.00, a nice whole number price. However, right below price is a large 4h imbalance inside of a 1D imbalance, where 50% of each imbalance lies right around 79.50, a nice half level. This area is also around the 50% retracement of the recent bull run if you apply a fib. My TP1 is the 4h imbalance that hasn't been filled, which is right around 81.5, another half level. Since this imbalance didn't break the previous short term market structure, I think price is likely to surpass this imbalance. Hence, my TP2 is targeting last month's highs at 82.5, another half level. A triple top formed right below last month's highs, providing liquidity for price to go to last month's highs, making it a likely target in my opinion.
CADJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 68% short on CADJPY, making me short to mid term bullish. There are also more short term inefficiencies in CADJPY to the long side than the short side. Price has formed support right above the 50% mark of a 1D bullish imbalance, making me even more bullish. Looking for entry at the 50% mark of the 1D, and an ultimate TP at a major 1h imbalance. Plenty of places to trim along the way. Notice how the orderblocks and imbalances I marked up either start at, or have 50% levels around whole 25 pip values (quarters theory)
EURUSD Shorts EURUSD has just Liquidated previous lows. Usually when this happens, we should see a test of this area before moving lower. Right now, EURUSD is testing a LTF Bullish OB which should make EURUSD go up to our Short entry.
I see price reaching the SSL and to fill the Daily FVG Imbalance below. I dont see price reaching up any higher than the highest high it took out (marked with "x") before dropping.