SMART MONEY US100 The US100 is still in a Bearish Market Structure but the price need a little retracement to get some more liquidity and after the targets is still at lower lows
Imbalance
USDJPY - Buy IdeaWe're currently in a discount market where we would like to see the market move away from.
We have Sign of Strength when it took out previous highs, now coming down for a retracement.
We have a Liquidity Void (Imbalance) for the market to move Up to fill.
We have a Strong Orderblock that also took out previous lows, and the Orderblock has not yet been mitigated, making it even stronger.
My Entry is at Equilibrium of the Orderblock.
(Be cautious as we are in Summer Doldrums where markets may move very unpredictably, this trade may fail but it's a valid setup).
Small move up then a drop from 1hr Supply ZoneSo the pair tried to make a short term move up yesterday, hit the 1hr Supply and rejected.
Will continue to monitor the areas and flow with the market
Crab Before Reversal?USDJPY, this is where I believe price will reverse and if not reverse give a strong reaction/bounce at least 50/100 pips, I will be setting a limit order here, we have a daily order block + and imbalance fill in the same zone which lands directly inside the D point of this crab on the Daily chart.
Lots of confluence here.
What's your thoughts? a
When will the Correction start?With that huge drop yesterday we should expect a correction but when? Its clear to see all the imbalance on that drop.
I've explained the process for my trades and what I look at - these are always areas I monitor and don't trade from them blindly.
Although I hit my target yesterday holding on to the trade would have returned great profit - something I need to get better at.
So for today I have these areas as high and lows, will be watching closely to see what the 1hr chart creates then trade from what I see.
NZD/USD: LongPrice decelerating into an order block and showing signs of accumulation. Targeting imbalance from push down for last TP with early partials to cover risk. Long term accumulation on Daily chart also gives me confidence to look for another long on NZD/USD even if we break below this area.
Small push has been madeAreas I'm looking at for 28th September - Price is still in the range of initial push from Daily Demand and retrace below the 50% of that push.
For me the area its in now is showing a lot of selling - I'd like to see the supply areas taken out with candle body closure but ultimately it's the high of initial push that will need to be taken out.
But doesn't mean there wont be opportunities to buy or sell why while this works itself out.
Yesterday a Buy was possible on lower time frames which worked out very well.
Trade Safe
GBP USD stuck at the moment?This is what I'm looking at for a Monday, the initial push up had retraced to below the 50% then made a push up and at the moment has not made a lower low or broke the high.
I have my two structure lines and it's when those areas have a good 1hr Candle closure that i'll start looking at this a bit deeper
AUDJPYHello Traders Welcome back to another profit day
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
AUDJPY with OB
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
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have a good profit week guy
Where is GBP USD going?4hr view is easier for me today plus its Friday so who wants to work? ;)
New HH created based of previous LH break (for my trading style) if the low gets broken then we could be trending down - or no pullback below the 50% of the push up and a straight run right up to Supply then a reaction… who knows who cares?
Watch on lower timeframes for trend changes in key areas and trade safe
Will GBPUSD continue to push lower? These are areas I have marked out for today on GBPUSD - there has been a big reaction the one hour demand zone.
If the highs get beat by price action then there's a chance of some upside movement.
These areas are NOT where I will click buy or sell they are for monitoring when price gets there.
EURUSD BEARISH FLAG OR BULLISH REVERSAL?Good day traders
as we have seen that EURUSD has been on a down trend for a while now. we had the liquidity below the lows taken with weak retracement and further push to the down side. we see that pattern repeating it self to fall back down to the daily DEMAND zone. so a slight retracement into 1.17520 to fill imbalance before completing the bearish flag pattern to the downside
1.17000 as target 1 and
1.16800 as target 2
good luck
SPX - Fibonacci reactive sell - Neutral stance at presentNeutral Application until Imbalance forms:
Hello Traders and Analysts,
Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.
A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances.
Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Scarlet - Four day
Orange = Daily
Green = 8 Hour, 16hour
Grey = 4hour
Pink = 1 hour
Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming?
8Hour time frame.
Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high.
However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders.
Update or original 8 hour
The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart.
Weekly Chart
The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure.
The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. .
Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached.
The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to.
The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed.
The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels.
See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation.
See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs.
Adding in volume - to assist identifying the current up, down interest where buyers, sellers are at present.
This helps assist with searching for High Volume Nodes (HVN) which are peaks in volume at or around a price level, the operation behind this is buyers, sellers provide high volume, keeping price steady over a trading range e.g. 1-2weeks+ offering an area of fair value. This will help look for shorter term ranges to trade.
SPX VS VIX
Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index.
Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors.
With that being said, the risks presenting the wedge, come with a re-active level where the "low volatility below 20" has been supressed by the market, the risk implied that and the importance of hi-lighting the exposure to all time highs in the US , that and world markets a like has presented opportunities to sensitivity of prices to faulter.
Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system.
(QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus.
Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately.
Employment
In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'.
See the article snippet below affecting the US Market.
"On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money
Inflation or Deflation?
inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?!
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