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Imbalance

US Oil August update with USD CADHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: December 15th 2020. Updated Idea: April 30th 2021 Understanding where we are now with the imbalances. Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point. The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions. The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. . The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021. Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression. Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks. Volume Analysis The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place. Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity. Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over. USD CAD vs WTI Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone. Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise. The relationship between looks to the output of barrels. Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table. US www.tradingview.com CAD www.tradingview.com Fundamental Fans Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart. Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution. Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions. See below for the weekly chart. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
EURUSD Possible Long-Term Downside ObjectivesSeen on the Monthly Timeframe, we see that we have created an M pattern in the past, where we retested a strong Bearish Orderblock before melting to the downside. Now we have created this SAME M Pattern, and currently testing a big Bearish Orderblock once again. The market tends to repeat itself. We also have lots of imbalances to fill, as well as possible mitigation of the Bullish Orderblock where we could potentially have a rejection up again, and Sell-side liquidity all the way down as a double bottom which the market loves to come to, take out all the liquidity and then possible reverse. We may have a long-term bearish bias for the EU. + The USD will go to sh*t ... Targets: - imbalances - Sell-Side Liquidity - Order block
Short
by Bastianelton
2
(NZD/USD) Potential Long Term Move Down V2An alternative situation - we have a very well-respected Trendline that has a high chance of getting manipulated. The green area marked above also has a lot of orders laying above so we could see those highs get taken out as well as mitigate a bit more of that Orderblock ¨ (From my previous post) This is a Daily Timeframe perspective. The Market has just tested a strong Bearish Ordeblockwhich is supposed to hold the market down. We also made a deceleration, going from a bullish market which is now a bearish market. The black lines that are drawn on the chart, is Sell Side Liquidity which are attractive targets where the majority of Orders lay in the market, The yellow areas are imbalances, where the market has moved too fast, creating inefficiency, so the market should fill a lot of these yellow areas. Another attractive area which the market wants to mitigate. The blue area marked up all the way down is a bullish Orderblock, which could be a potential reaction point. I don't know how far the market will drop, but I do expect a lot of these areas to get filled.
Short
by Bastianelton
1
USDJPY - Sell IdeaOn the weekly - broke a major high, and now broke back below (run on massive liquidity) - Also created lot of imbalance (yellow area) with a tiny Orderblock inside which also could be respected IF the market were to come all the way down here. - Testing an Orderblock On the Daily - Created an M pattern with a higher right leg (no more liquidity above this level) later closing below. It gave a strong impulse down with a slow correction. Now we are testing the neckline which also lines perfectly up with EQUILIBRIUM (50%) of the fibonacci. We could see a move lower from here. TP points: - All the lines (Sell side liquidity) - Imbalance - Tiny Orderblock INSIDE imbalance Do own research*
Short
by Bastianelton
2
(NZD/USD) Potential Long Term Move Down V1This is a Daily Timeframe perspective. The Market has just tested a strong Bearish Ordeblockwhich is supposed to hold the market down. We also made a deceleration, going from a bullish market which is now a bearish market. The black lines that are drawn on the chart, is Sell Side Liquidity which are attractive targets where the majority of Orders lay in the market, The yellow areas are imbalances, where the market has moved too fast, creating inefficiency, so the market should fill a lot of these yellow areas. Another attractive area which the market wants to mitigate. The blue area marked up all the way down is a bullish Orderblock, which could be a potential reaction point. I don't know how far the market will drop, but I do expect a lot of these areas to get filled.
Short
by Bastianelton
AUD USD - Testing the 0 Fibonacci - June updateHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Fibonacci Weekly and Daily Fibonacci levels. Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Yields: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. Where are we now with the 8 hours? - update: Price is now testing the 0.76 zone however, this has been previously tested with a wick already established. With heavy bearish moves - price doesn't tend to whipsaw back to the original zone, but at this current moment. Price has established itself at the current Fibonacci zero. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
EUR CHF - Long opportunitiesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances The 2015 low sell off closed and reverted from the low to create a new imbalance for longs to occur. Upon the rejection - price was a clear buy upon rejection, however here the most important zone was return to retest 1.02 - 1.04 zone. From here using the daily and awaiting confirmations - buys were to be added. The reason, price pivot point and double retest and creating higher lows. Weekly trendline & imbalance The weekly trendline has been placed, price whilst climbing up to the imbalance - where price will in the long term will need to revert to. Using the weekly while awaiting the low to create a high. Use the Fibonacci for a safer opportunity to add a position at the 50 - 61.8% Daily imbalance So as is evident here the weekly and monthly imbalances - the daily has created an opportunity for longs as price has created a correctional channel, creating opportunities for shorts (to cover longs). Price created the imbalance sell and then the bull flag has allowed price to discount itself back to an imbalance zone at a deep zone - where the Fibonacci is applied. Here, also to note - the inefficient pricing is testing the trendline, but be aware price can retest the daily imbalance at 1.07XX-1.08XX Be patient and trade the probability. Fibonacci structure Here is the completion of the bearish positional move - which is also the matching zone of the trendline at -0.618 - which is a target zone for shorts to close out - now this is a high probability for the inefficient pricing to now look for a balancing act, and create a buying imbalance from this zone, Bull flag opportunity - combined with imbalances Simply explained with what is happening right now. Finally executing - this is down to the individual. For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
BTC - 61.8% structure now in actionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Chart pattern to watch for: - short term Below is the possibility of a Bearish pennant. Bullish Pattern to spot: Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low. 2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies. 3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information. Monthly Imbalances Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high. Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone . The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high. The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy. Here is the probable paths where price can show Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart: The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. Or simply wait the next liquidity spike to the next imbalance. align the timeframes together and the imbalances will become clearer. Daily chart Here is the current price chart for the daily price chart with the Fibonacci applied. The current price is testing the 61.8% retracement, the price also seems to find it's reversion (pivot point) at the 70.5% retracement* Caveat: The price will not always use this is a reversion point, price will use probability before falling to the monthly imbalance. 16 hour chart Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy. The eight hour Fibonacci is complete Now what is happening? This aligns with the bigger picture using the weekly and monthly. BTC VS VIX The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing. The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where; orange = value area up Blue = value area down *showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high. As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance. US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies. BTC vs ETH: Notice the imbalance pattern? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
GBP AUD - target 2.00+Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. The previous analysis Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since: Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Current scenario: since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
4