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Imbalance

USD CAD - Long and wait for it, longHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones at 1.466XX established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily, to execute sale positions. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance high in line with the previous high of 2016, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The high of 1.466 was a structural high point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural high using the three month chart* *Three month chart What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 1.39 - 1.46 - while a very large zone. The three month and weekly time frames provide a great indicator as that price has not wicked the previous high. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to sell for the positional sellers within the 1.44 - 1.46 zone. The reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly high fractal referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. - Notice here that is key on all currency crosses. 2. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot, fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view II. Monthly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Imbalances The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* 4 Day view This view has been added as the probability of a lower buying position could still be likely. While the edge of the zone has been touched, for the price to regress back to original pivot point can create a higher low. This will give a trading edge to assess the inefficient price and look for opportunities. Entry criteria - See this for an example - I will execute upon confirmation of a liquidity rejection and inefficient price point touch. Currently already long, but with a small position to assess the market conditions. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
8
GBP JPY - Final push to 155Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See our previous analysis here: Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalance write up The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Taking into account correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1.40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBPUSD LongsGBPUSD high & low timeframes are providing a potential long position for the coming week. What we have here is a market that is trapped between two large psychological levels - 1.4100 & 1.3800. From a bounce at 1.3800 the market has been shifting direction from downside to upside with its momentum and a lot of liquidity sitting above 1.4000 could draw prices higher this week. I am looking for the market to move over 1.4000 and potentially push an additional 100 pips into 1.41000. Right now I am focusing on the demand zone & key level 1.38750 for my entry zone to bring this market higher. Trade safe & manage risk as always.
Long
by jeafxtrading
3
AUD USD 0.80 achieved! Now check the imbalance to shortHello traders and analysts. 0.80 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair AUD USD at the current position. The investment strategy is neutral - while a short position is held at exactly 0.80 tap, the possibility for the price to still reach the liquidity engineer a higher low or... the sell off begins. Watch this space. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. . The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the .80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. End of 2021 scenario hypothesis: However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80, where price will then encounter a sell off from the imbalance or use this is a mid way imbalance and continue to hold to 2022 around or above 0.80+ 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie!! Remember any bearish news on the world will see a rush to the USD, however with the US attempting to remove the safehaven asset for investors, expect a good move for the Aussie to see bullish movements. Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. AUD USD - weekly time frame imbalances The weekly imbalances in place have provided Track the original idea: November 2020 Update using the daily timeframe Multi time frame analysis; AUD USD - Daily AUD USD - 4 hour Fibonacci extension target is 0.80 at -0.786 Current sale to hedge the longs SPX vs AUD USD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish, this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish. With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Using Yields: Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
GBP USD - Full analysis to the imbalanceHello traders and analysts, GBP USD full breakdown technical analysis. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon Lupa Capitals trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value and conduct individual entry points whether looking for long or short positions (time frame dependent). Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Weekly and monthly imbalances combined Price has moved from the monthly low of 1.1430 where price has immediately become oversold and an obvious imbalance has occurred here. The buyers imbalance has now taken over upon the Dollar strength - for it's position as a safe haven when looking at a fundamental view. From here price has moved and closed between a newly created imbalance zone between 1.143 and 1.1980 - a huge imbalance but price has reached its double top for the DXY. Weekly imbalances: The cable had successfully stabilised within the zone above the imbalance over extension and has become bullish again completing a clear path to 1.35XX. The reason behind this is the imbalance has enough buying power within the next cycle to take price to the previous sell imbalance. However, the consolidation or breathing point for the cable can be marked between 1.308 to 1.32. Daily imbalances Look left to see where price has created "liquidity zones", these are the imbalances which match the weekly time frame so the candle using weekly and monthly for our structure shows, the long term selling imbalance is at 1.35XX. This area of imbalance had previously been tested by the bulls but maintained structure. However, price over the course of 847 days price has reached the imbalance four times, slowly but surely adding pressure to this 'swap zone'. Here is the wider daily picture. Daily Fibonacci - imbalance to test 50% daily zone for bullish run. Imbalance view - using Fibonacci has been a great opportunity here for positional buyers to buy in. The reason for this zone was important is the imbalance swing to a 50% retrace is clear on this pair where price looks to this pivot point more often than not. The second reason is due to the fact that the bullish momentum impact here caused a nice opportunity for the price to re-engineer a profit taking for sellers imbalance and convert to buyers. Here is the current scenario, heading towards the extension -0.618 or 1.618 in extension Fibonacci terms. GBP USD VS GBP Futures both heading for the imbalance as the futures are aligning to the current market price. See the previous update to our explanation to see further review tools and analysis takes: Where will price take us from here? The USD will continue to see a deepening soft dollar, which is what the US want right now to keep pushing the stocks into 2021 with cheaper import/exports as a major player. Furthermore a cheaper dollar will boost 2021 visitors to the US and see Gold rushed to as a hedge of inflation . GBP we have a weekly zone the pound has now surpassed creating a good new daily demand to move further. The monthly zone towards 1.50 as our target for a position buy. Before this zone on the daily to take us to 1.44 on our weekly zone. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD still pushing to 0.80 The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80 - . 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie. Remember any bearish news on the world will see a rush to the USD, however with the US attempting to remove the safehaven asset for investors, expect a good move for the Aussie to see bullish movements.
Long
by LupaCapital
US OIL - snipe your profit targetsHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is an update to our original view back in December 2020 - for the start of 2021. Our imbalances are clearly identified on the chart - where the blue imbalance which relates to the monthly zones - where little price action is needed but identified on the higher time frames to provide insights as to where the fractals in the market are taking place. There imbalance price has previously broken through builds upon the support for Oil demand. Based on what merit? We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. Looking for an entry long term in 2021? Based on the orange trendline - we would be looking to buy further at $48.00 where price may look to establish a lower high. If* this zone is broken, the correction will deepen with $46-48 looking to be a buying area. price has now completed this zone New buy zone: $55.00 if a pullback breaks our blue trendline on a daily channel. This zone is still valid. Due to global recovery optimism, the demand is still very much in control with restricted access and output cuts still in play, the OPEC + JMMC both have not made any recommendations in the January meeting. Commodities here will still be in the balance upon economies re-igniting. Here is the chart from January 17, 2021 Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
6
GOLD Swing Long Trade | Next Stop 1950?Gold is providing a potential swing long trade setup towards some Daily key levels. I a seeing potential here for the Precious Metal to make a significant move higher towards $1925 & $195 in the medium-term. As you can see on the Daily chart, Gold formed a strong bounce from the $1810-$1815 demand zone printing a large wick and indicating that buying pressure is strong within that zone. From the bounce the market formed an accumulation phase and a bullish break of structure confirming the formation of new bullish orders. The commodity is now trading within the boundaries of the accumulation range and I expect it to move slightly lower before providing an opportunity to buy. For my entry targets I am primarily focused on the 4H demand zone at $1828, but the doors are open for price to trade once again into the $1810-$1815 demand zone, so no entry should be rushed. As traders we are here to REACT not PREDICT so the best course of action for this Gold swing trade will be to wait patiently for 4H confirmations adopting a 'top-down' approach to the market at $1828. If no confirmations form you can continue to wait until the market gives you something to work with back in the $1810-$1815 range. For my targets I am looking towards the $1925 Daily supply zone & Key Level, and the $1950 major resistance. I see precious metals moving considerably higher long term, but for this swing long 100% of my profits will be taken at the $1950 level. As always, be patient, manage risk & trade logically.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by jeafxtrading
GBP AUD - Buy updateGBP AUD - 4hour chart Be ready for either direction on the lower timeframe. Technicals to assess. We have a nice technical sell of yesterday but with the AUD USD rebounding in a negative light, the GBP has entered the supply again with a boost from the risk-off aversion. From the chart below, watch out for the fresh daily zone which has not been truly tested yet. Our new long zone is from the grey imbalance - where by price will now look at fibonacci retrace zones - where we will look to buy again. See the full breakdown here: See our previous buy zone Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise and clears your mind. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
XAUUSD SHORTPrice broke the previous uptrend without retesting aiming the previous support liquidity area, leaving an imbalance at 1906-1895. After a period of consolidation price created a downtrend formed a new trend liquidity which then were swept by a single instututional candle before creating the recover of the previous break. Now price is going to the imbalance area meanwhile retesting the break. I would not enter below 1970 for a sell as soon as the price arrives there, but would wait for everyone to enter on a sell and expect price to do the contrary, creating a stophunt. So basically i would enter only after this scenario.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Crifx
3