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Imbalance

Tracking MOC vs SPY (also potential Long Signal)First off, MOC and MOC Imbalances are two things I am still in the process of learning and understanding better, so I am not claiming to be an expert on the topic. Please chime in if I have wrote anything incorrect or if you have something valuable to contribute! A Market-On-Close (or "MOC") order is an order sent to trigger near the market close. We see this pretty routinely trigger 10 minutes before the closing bell, and it often produces some fireworks with sudden, spiky moves in one direction or the other. There is often an imbalance in one direction-- Buy, or Sell-- which can sometimes seem random, but when smoothed can help show flows into the market or out. I took a little bit of time to just color the periods on SPY in the last year or so for the 4 scenarios of the 20 day moving average of MOC imbalance. They are as follows- DARK RED MOC is Below 0 and Increasing in that direction --> Sell Imbalance LIGHT RED MOC is Below 0 and Decreasing/Reversing LIGHT GREEN MOC is Above 0 and Increasing in that direction --> Buy Imbalance DARK GREEN MOC is Above 0 and Decreasing/Reversing I think you could generally say these phases of the MOC Imbalance correlate with SPY. The two phases of Light Red and Light Green (moving from a Sell Imbalance to Buy Imbalance) have generally shown to be good old fashioned bull fun. Dark green often is a profit taking phase. Dark red is usually when its too late or just the start of the descent. Here are crude measurements of the light red and light green phases, their gains and length of time- +4.39% in 44 days +7.27% in 50 days +4.22% in 30 days +4.50% in 24 days +4.55% in 45 days +25.00% in 31 days +15% in 24 days Presently, so far: +4.15% in 15 days The times I did not include, which are obviously the recent outlier, is from February to early March. If you had a good chart of the 20sma MOC in front of you like I do, you could see there were a couple times when it looked like the MOC had reached its bottom and was going to start reversing and heading towards a Buy Imbalance, only to get rejected and keep selling. The actual confirmed bottom never happened until March 20th, so you could say that was the true start of this light red colored area, but I felt it was relevant to still color those as if it was a real-time scenario. It also helps show how that crash really manifested itself, with a lot of traders/investors thinking the end of February is just a dip or buying opportunity, to manifest into a rug pull. Myself and others have been thinking this week and last that a melt-up is on its way, and the MOC turning above 0 today to a Buying Imbalance could be a great bit of data to possibly confirm this. Where do you find MOC Reports? I only started looking at them recently from Market Chameleon so unfortunately I do not have any great resources to point people towards other than Market Chameleon. I hear that its publicly disseminated information, though. Here's their -free- daily report- marketchameleon.com They also have a more aggregated report, which is what I used, but that is behind a pay wall.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
5
DXY ANALYSIS for upcoming weeks CHECK IT OUT So As of right now I would be looking for short term and possibly long term BUYS on foreign currencies because I am bullish on the dollar. If we have a drastic market structure shift in the dollar then I will change my bias on the DXY and post it here. As you could see the DXY came down to the Order block but just missed the price on the mean threshold by a few pips that's why I said above short term buys and maybe not long term. If it would off came down to the mean threshold and tapped it along with reacting of that level that would off been more confirmations on a longer term scenario bullish prices on the DXY. After that happened you can see that I had the DXY prices for the FVG candle that was also tapped into but not fully filled in so for me this is telling me that there aiming for higher prices, such as some levels I have highlighted.... Enjoy and good luck trading.
TVC:DXY
by JohnnWick
GBPJPY trade Idea I would like to see GBPJPY make a run to that Volume imbalance. If you take a look at my last post about this pair you'll see how I dissected it on a lower timeframe. This market is showing a lot of bullishness I'll be expecting some lows to form and look for Buy entries. After the market took out the recent oderblock it was telling me that we are in bull territory so now we just look for retracements and wait. Also I am bearish on EURGBP so when EURGBP is bearish we will see GBPs do the opposite.
Long
by JohnnWick
AUDNZDHello People, AUDNZD This a scalp imbalance trade. Okay guys, as you know market does not move straight up in the sky. It needs to be equal so (some/most) people are out of the market. - Very big Bullish candle - Big Banks move - Price will come to the take profit as some point. I know! From there it will either move up or down. - We need to wait for price to do small pull back then I will enter the market at my entry. - Need to look how it is at market opens. I will be risking 2% on this trade that if I get the opportunity to enter. Risk management need to at finest! Goodluck guys
Short
by AyDevilss
2