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Imbalances

NZD USD - Arrival to the weekly awaits Series 7G'Day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are Bullish Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. We are live Previous analysis using sells - price will always revert back to the original Fresh Level - (from here on, Fresh Level). This zone will be retested as the monthly and weekly departure needed to overall capture the FL based around $0.665-0.652 range. The reason for this is clear as the FL has a 80-90 day consolidative zone where price has used price action to accumulate a strong buying imbalance. At the current daily chart - price is conforming a Rally Base Rally, at present price is possibly forming a Base, this is where price will reconsolidate the strong zone and present another rally towards. Monthly This upper imbalance has been established through the top of the wick down to the close of the body on the candlestick in focus - taking place July 2017. Why here? Well this has been a previous top of the structure where price has tested by looking right to 2018 and has been rejected where no wicks have created higher highs, solely lower highs, giving the high probability of this zone being the buyers imbalance take profit zone. As with Imbalances, these are retested just like double bottom patterns and also on lower timeframes, considered consolidation patterns. The lower imbalance which aligns with the Fibonacci extension (inverse) where a change of hands will occur with as the monthly candlesticks show a correctional two months - this whilst on the previous "covid" low - upon the rejection the imbalance formation had become this zone - reasons; 1. Price correction relieves the buying pressure and discounts additional opportunities 2. The second reason is due to the the previous Fibonacci "0" on the monthly aligns to the -0.618, -0.786 zone on the inverse Fibonacci.* See here* Weekly Chart - as posted The weekly imbalance zooming into the correction based on the engulfing move from the true imbalance rejection - formed an eight week period of trading ranges which tested tested the engulfing weekly low netting the the low , allowing buyers to begin the process of establishing the trading range as well as lower time frame of a rising channel creating higher lows and higher high wicks. From here this would ensue a breakout for buyers as a well established monthly range at the pivotal level gives a 95%confidence for a buying imbalance to continue to extension targets back to the arrival upon the OP. Where the price chart was back in Dec 2021 Daily Chart Bearish Continuation Judging by looking left - the zone below "0" has been tested - price will look to breakout from the low to correct to 0.694X as a test of the Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
US OIL - $100 move completed, Congrats!!See below for the tracking of analysis - happy to say, target achieved for the long term position holds. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Oil is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image of high probability of CP making natural moves aligned with Indexes, VIX and commodity pairs. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. The strong imbalance lays within the $57 - $67.5, whereby the monthly level has been tested leaving netting wicks upon the imbalance body highlighted. Weekly The weekly shows the strong whipsaw effect for the bearish indication however this ultimately created the activation for further longs to be added. With imbalances, these are always tested. Due to a first test needing a solid rested, the daily will present a closer look to the whipsaw movement October analysis Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. see here The current daily chart This shows three potential areas whereby price has clearly marked three daily imbalances - two of which are stronger zones. . Price originally broke from the channel, and reached the desired $80 zone, where a strong pivot is reached at a strong first touch of the -0.27 or on the monthly chart a top of the previous sell off initiation. Price begins to pivot off the fresh level and reverts back to a strong pivot, which is linked close to "0" of the Fibonacci monthly sequence. This offers a daily imbalance and weekly combination. On the daily, this retests the "0" and also follows the continued downward trendline - which presents an opportunity to create a buying discount. ** Imbalances always retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOIL
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - February update [Neutral Stance]G'Day traders, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Are you Long or short? It doesn't matter - there are pips to be made either side. Make your informed choice with risk-calculated decisions. Quick analysis The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Why these CP Levels were not respected: Here is the after bar pattern showing that sellers are not respecting the zones. Note: Price can develop overtime and does not have to stick to a timeframe of <1 month for a move to occur. There are exceptions to these rules; Confirmation of break/bounces upon imbalances Departure was strong Fresh level - showed lower high formation, based of the fact that the tap of the zone occurs. Using the Monthly and weekly imbalances in conjunction with Fresh levels and original levels - this is how the chart looks The imbalances are clearly defined at the top of the market structure and at the bottom also. The mid-markings are fresh levels or CP levels which indicate pivot points, daily imbalances and combined weekly im Here is the short term timeframe of where price is showing signs of faltering due to the strategy. Basing confirmations upon closes will indicate the opportunity to buy/sell. The strategy at play Using DCA - purchasing from these two levels, will obtain a lower price from BTC, but also will allow the accumulation of savings to put into the market. While smaller increments are being added in the monthly time period, there are periodic levels where price will a larger additional sum to be added within a price range. Tracking of Dominance - 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% 6th February 2022 - a QTR review Here is how the numbers look BTC - 42.55% ETH - 19.08% BNB - 3.63% ADA - 2.00% USDT - 4.05* XRP - 1.71% A multi-functional chart tracking; Please review the link below to track the all things BTC BTC.Dominance, correlated against the Crypto Index, vs BTC USD current price. What are the two largest crypto's doing? The Dominance of BTC and ETH are still in play, the networks upon these two still offer the largest value in terms of holdings and pathe the way for Crypto. Keep track of these. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
3
Potential Shark Forming 🦈🦈US30 - Potential Shark Forming, looking to swing this short for the HTF downtrend continuation, we've had some nice mitigations above along with the tweezer top and still have lots of imbalances to fill below. I will be trading this in both directions and I will be looking for buys/pullbacks at the "PRZ" Let me know your thoughts! * Disclaimer ** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only
UShort
by benalistarfx
2
SPX - A continued buying opportunity? [February]G'Day traders & analyst, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. SPX Daily chart A rising channel has always bounced of multiple levels, creating higher lows and subsequently pushing higher towards higher highs to be created. 10 year yields rise, with a 7 year inflation - who would hold bonds during period? The movement of cash exodus from foreign bond holders to place elsewhere has assisted in the fuel. The money from the bond market flows - will be placed into the SPX or NAS100, Small caps other assets. Key: White = channels Orange = higher high trendline Buying was present upon the weekly imbalance Please note, nothing is confirmed, until confirmations are in place using a daily confirmation for example. Time spans may differ for those with different strategies. SPX for those who love moving averages Here is the 200MA, where price is now trading below the 200. What are your thoughts using this simple technical analysis tool? Could this be a fakeout for the sellers? The low has been made, with now two lower high formations which have proved considerable moves to keep a bullish move intact. This corresponds to the weekly imbalance tap. Buying opportunity? An opportunity for a 22.74% est buy opportunity, to those who use Fibonacci as extension targets. Looking to the SPX and the S5TH which refers to the SPX stocks which are trading under the 200MA. The weekly has provided a key move Consumer Sentiment Weekly UMSCENT The Fed has been consuming QE, but ultimately will raise inflation if they feel necessary - despite after down turns. Monetary policy can either tighten or never tighten again - the university of Michigan tracking of consumer sentiment has provided key information that the "average person" is feeling the crunch, where the down turn of sentiment highs have created a low on the weekly, and bounced back, but ultimately now is beginning to show signs of bearish action, where consumer lows at the monthly imbalance - shows Fibonacci retracement extension targets align. VIX weekly Where we are now as at 25/01/2022 Using the tracking below, it is now clear to see the volatility movements which of course takes time to form, but spotting it early like we saw, shows the strong monthly and weekly imbalance which needed a strong suppressive test. ST LOUIS FED 10year breakeven chart fred.stlouisfed.org Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
SP:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
EUR GBP - Quick Take Series 5G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. EUR GBP is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Currently on a correctional play, but overall still short. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Quick analysis, shorting due to monthly and weekly timeframes The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Monthly These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 0.95 whereby the Euro Failed to overcome, this however was the pivotal imbalance to sell from a Fibonacci extension perspective. A large zone formed here on a monthly as previous historical monthly wicks have shown immediate whipsaw effects, revert to the daily chart in to see three examples of a trading week immediately 'tailing off' During February, March 2020 - the price surge accelerated growth but instantly rejected, the timeframe is sped up, but imbalance method still applies here as the zone failed to hold. GBP still holds a resounding power over the EU to prevent parity. The Monthly lower high upon the chart formed in September and December respectively, both coincide with Fig 1.0 Long term imbalance pathways It's clear, either sell upon confirmation with current positions Await the buying opportunity to reach a weekly 'resistance', but in reality is a pivot imbalance where price will form a sell opportunity. Weekly Imbalances Upon the weekly chart price has created a short opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has been previously tested twice. Subsequently creating two lower highs. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot Selling imbalance, the breakout and retest is a strong reset upon the imbalance zone, however, the price channel is still forming overall selling trends, so waiting for the confirmation upon a daily will show sell as the engulfing bullish candle will indicate a push for short buyers, but long term, sellers are in control. Daily Imbalance Here is the daily logical trendlines which show where price can break in the short term - before the next swing is prominent. Note the imbalance here (upper) is strong in terms of failing to be breached, whereby the wick of the high failed to nett off, meaning the selling imbalance is >95% confidence of selling. EUR USD overlay Something of interest, showing a stronger USD in conjunction with the SPX - again this correlated but not causative. Denote the lows of the SPX has followed with EUR USD creating lower highs. Review USD JPY, SPX Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Short
by LupaCapital
6
USDCAD might go down and rise up. (RTM and Fibonacci Tools)This Idea came from using The Demand Supply Zones and RTM *Reasons Below* Information in this trading Idea  - In Daily TF USDCAD from the Flag Pattern to the Up-side. - The recent supply zone can't push the price down because it's reaching its minor resistance and the price doesn't make the higher high position. - The information above is a sign of the Bull's weakness. Entering strategy - Prices might reach the lower demand to gain the strength to push the prices higher to continue the trend. - Using Demand as a Bias for Buy. (Continue the Bullish trend) *Wait for confirmation before entry* - If the prices break the structure to the upside and reach the POI. (Supply Zone + 88.6 Fibo) *Wait for confirmation before entry* . *Note: By looking at the previous price high, we can see that the price was reaching its break-even structure and didn't clearly make the higher high position. The supply zone might be the beginning of the downtrend. If it's breaking its recent low price in higher TF.
by SN_Trader
USD JPY - Quick take series 4G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. USD JPY is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Currently on a correctional play, but overall still long. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Monthly zones These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. The next strong zone identified on the weekly, monthly and daily as per below shows 113-112.5 lows as a strong long confirmation upon the imbalance. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. 113.27 shows an imbalance candle which is due a retest should price look for a "bearish correction" using the SPX as a reference point. Upon selling confirmations for short term sellers - use the daily close and monitor the three box combination before entering. Weekly zone Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot . Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27% and currently poised between the -0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Daily confirmations for longs Here is the daily logical trendlines which show where price can break in the short term - before the next swing is prominent. Crossover between the SPX500 & USD JPY Something of interest, showing a stronger USD in conjunction with the SPX - again this correlated but not causative. Denote the lows of the SPX has followed wit USD JPY higher lows. With Targets for USD JPY - the Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
3
US OIL - Quick take series 3G'day Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents/Warnings 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. USOIL is an investment, so here is the technical and logical analysis behind the long term investment. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Monthly Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. The strong imbalance lays within the $57 - $67.5, whereby the monthly level has been tested leaving netting wicks upon the imbalance body highlighted. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Weekly The weekly shows the strong whipsaw effect for the bearish indication however this ultimately created the activation for further longs to be added. With imbalances, these are always tested. Due to a first test needing a solid rested, the daily will present a closer look to the whipsaw movement There is a clear downward movement which applying a Fibonacci shows a strong squeeze of price fluctuating between the 70.5 Fibo pivot and the "0" daily level. Price targets aligned with the -0.27 Fibonacci. From the Squeeze, price had broken out and confirmed a daily close with a strong engulfing candle. October analysis Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. see here The current daily chart This shows three potential areas whereby price has clearly marked three daily imbalances - two of which are stronger zones. . Price originally broke from the channel, and reached the desired $80 zone, where a strong pivot is reached at a strong first touch of the -0.27 or on the monthly chart a top of the previous sell off initiation. Price begins to pivot off the fresh level and reverts back to a strong pivot, which is linked close to "0" of the Fibonacci monthly sequence. This offers a daily imbalance and weekly combination. On the daily, this retests the "0" and also follows the continued downward trendline - which presents an opportunity to create a buying discount. ** Imbalances always retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
9
ETH - Quick series (2)Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Monthly The monthly has indicate clear buying imbalances upon the price climbing. But the monthly distinctly plots a strong zone ahead where Fibonacci extension on the monthly plot and weekly Latest reference, has provided a buying opportunity, which also co-incides with the below weekly chart. Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Weekly correctional Price currently sits upon the -0.618% Fibonacci as a profit zone. On the Monthly, price is now looking to push higher, but buyers are exhausting and need to correct to change hands on a weekly level. Hence "0" is a probable scenario for retesting. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by LupaCapital
4
CHF JPY - buying on correctional - Quick take seriesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Quick analysis, The Monthly Imbalances are set: Add positions upon the following, clear directional sell hedges Confirmation upon the daily Higher timeframes provide a clearer image. Look for a three box setup, whereby draw your imbalance, a upper and lower confidence correctional move and set alerts, limits. Monthly The monthly has indicate clear buying imbalances upon the price climbing. But the monthly distinctly plots a strong zone ahead where Fibonacci extension on the monthly plot and weekly Latest reference, has provided a buying opportunity, which also co-incides with the below weekly chart. Box 1 being imbalance Box 2 being correctional pullback to retest an imbalance. Box 3 Target profit at an imbalance Price has now established a monthly imbalance candle at "0" Swing high. Look to this zone now for a correctional retest as imbalances upon a fresh touch retest in accordance to probability and the structure of the market. Not advised: For scalping purposes - If the desired trader finds a breakout pattern or clear reversal then - follow your strategy. Weekly correctional Price currently sits upon the -0.618% Fibonacci as a profit zone. On the Monthly, price is now looking to push higher, but buyers are exhausting and need to correct to change hands on a weekly level. Hence "0" is a probable scenario for retesting. Bi-monthly Here is the two week chart which also shows the same scenario taking place, where a strong pivot point is now providing a test of a supply pivot to overall refuel the buyers. To those who are patient, daily confirmations will indicate a scaling in positional play. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
2
Dash USD - Buy and hold for 2022Hello Traders and Analysts, Welcome to 2022. This year, less posting, but more closer measurement analysing a smaller group of pairs. This refines analysis and provides clearer insights, while the principles of investment are still covered in detail. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note* this analysis is a positional accumulation using a cost average upon positional aggregation. Short term losses incurred will not be realised, instead buying opportunities will be added. For CFD purposes, positions can be added with wider stop losses but minimal risk lost. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance for buying The main criteria for longs Strong wicks showing that the zone has failed to close within the imbalance. Net close out of the imbalance using August 20 - this coincides with the new monthly wicks proceeding creating higher highs. We have an inside bar which essentially on the monthly provides a bear trap - look down below for the weekly to see the change of hands closer. Looking left, the monthly candlesticks have created moves to establish supply imbalances. Adding supply imbalance as targets Structure understanding Using the Fibonacci from price formations - this has established zone for profit targets and change of hands zones which is a logical positional play in technical analysis. Things which are critical to understand here The swing low of the Fibonacci starts at "1", whereby price has established a strong imbalance candle The other established area is the retracement from the high, which >90% confidence within back testing scenarios across 11 crypto pairs, the established supply imbalance from the "0" or top of the swing - (which also aligns with a previous wick close). Price will look to a weekly pivot point. Price will extend to -0.618 or 1.1618 Fibonacci, which will provide a zone where price will enter a profit taking zone and subsequently a over buying imbalance and now create a selling imbalance. Not the previous top wick closes in line with the bearish open price. Weekly Imbalances Daily Fibonacci Sequence completed Price now has to break the following levels. I'm aware on the weekly a short opportunity is still present as the monthly zone can still be tested to buy at $108-100 zone, but the monthly also shows a positional change of hands from supply to demand imbalances. If the scenario where a rejection of either -0.27 and or -0.618 is present, then sell positions can be added to hedge or await buying due to the nature of a bear trap in smaller timescales. Let's view the Fibonacci chart The swing high and swing low can be applied, measured sells between $245-$222 would have been a high probability of a selling imbalance, this is due to the gearing of daily candle sticks forming a basis of structure which on the three day chart shows the netting off, where the imbalance meets the close out. 1.1 Here is the three day chart, which shows the selling imbalance where the netting had occurred. (note, on the weekly the wick created a half weekly high within the imbalance zone). What now? Well, two scenarios will occur for the bullish curve 1. being the likelihood of a buying position from a breakout of the buy where price will climb after being squeezed but creates lower highs on the daily and three day chart. 2. The second scenario, is based on the imbalance being retested on a deeper correction whereby the -0.618 or on a higher timeframe, Monthly* - the correction will be based on the wick low (looking left). So long as the chart pushes up and to the right, longs are activated. Buying zones - daily, removed Crypto dominance Possibilities Since it is impossible to predict paths understand scenario analysis I have concluded these two scenarios to create two pathways, there are opportunities to buy accumulate positions here. Orange - follows closer to a daily timeframe Weekly - downside can still occur, but will tail off due to additional volume, cash conversion to buying, profit taking from sellers to buying inputs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
KRAKEN:DASHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
4
USD CAD - a long path aheadHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance Update December Update Price had established itself within the monthly imbalance, had a breakout where the change of hands occurred - aligning with the inverse Fibonacci as previously analysed. From here price retested again which created a high - this aligns with the "range" top, but it is an imbalance zone - where price will look to retest the monthly as price has just reverted from this area. Inverse Fibonacci Monthly. Refer below for the weekly inverse Note the close out of the net highs, which combine with an imbalance formed based off - 'Three white soldiers' Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Update of the weekly chart Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes. Current weekly A closer look to where we are currently; Price had reverted back to the imbalance at 0.705 Fibonacci as imbalances are retested once a change of hands has begun. To others, trades will refer to this as a double bottom or triple bottom on smaller timeframes. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Review the DXY This is the weekly here, also a tracking of the DXY is below for full tracking Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. Previously replayed bars for a new entry Current view As per chart posting Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
BTC USD - buying on the below structure levelsNote* Before commenting, understand this analysis was private released Nov28th - so the anticipated analysis has played out. Revert to the link in the analysis to see the privatised idea. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances at the desired levels . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish with a short phase in focus at present. You must be aware of my analysis's - I do not short term trade, and hold positions for periods longer term, this means when trading positions have wider stop losses and risk reward setups for multiple shorter term trades to be taken while in the main position. The idea here is to have overall trades open and to take other positions in between. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons; I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability. II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone Monthly The current imbalances are now forming on the Zero Fibonacci structural path of the market. At the present time, price has made lower highs on the previous market top. So in scenario 1; a new higher low wick will form. Scenario 2: A structural break will retest a monthly zone, exhaust and liquidate buyers, then change of hands will occur for the buyers who will look to sweep up on a discounted price factor. Weekly updated chart using Fibonacci The zone speaks for itself where price is now testing the imbalance. Here is the before identified zone of interest which was analysed using the Daily chart The clear 50% Fibonacci and combination of the daily zone is clear for two reasons; I. Using the consolidative order block to the left of the structure - an opportunity to test here is considered a high probability. II. The main order zone of interest is $46,000 on the weekly, but on a shorter term corrective structure, the 50% is a testable zone. t.me Why is this level so important for a daily sell off? Well to put it simply - the imbalance is netted off here with the previous wick high matching a zone of a wick low. The main point or zone of interest is the most important to observe as the imbalance upon the weekly has formed and will now be retested. Upon a retest, it is clear to look for Daily lows and also the weekly wick and candlestick low - also combine with a four day chart - this will offer a highly anticipated zone where price will observe a low parity or a lower high. Upon the subsequent formation - buying upon a daily confirmation or anticipated psychological level will be imperative. On the Daily a profit taking zone offers a low towards the breakout of the formation between the previous analysis upon the confirmation and the daily imbalance from that zone. This is also a -0.618% Fibonacci inverse extension zone. Daily Chart Update: Price has now tested successfully, now be patient and await the true wick to see where the week closes and more importantly what occurs on a Sunday - price makes an impulse move on this day, looking back at historic movements. Here is the outcome from purchasing on the confirmation from the imbalance at hand. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation. The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin. Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% * based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat. Source: coinmarketcap.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
NZD USD - stay patient for thisHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short for a short term, due to selling power still in the picture, further increments upon imbalances will offer large opportunities to purchase. Until then, remaining neutral. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. - read to fully understand on what timeframe I'm referring to Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly This upper imbalance has been established through the top of the wick down to the close of the body on the candlestick in focus - taking place July 2017. Why here? Well this has been a previous top of the structure where price has tested by looking right to 2018 and has been rejected where no wicks have created higher highs, solely lower highs, giving the high probability of this zone being the buyers imbalance take profit zone. As with Imbalances, these are retested just like double bottom patterns and also on lower timeframes, considered consolidation patterns. The lower imbalance which aligns with the Fibonacci extension (inverse) where a change of hands will occur with as the monthly candlesticks show a correctional two months - this whilst on the previous "covid" low - upon the rejection the imbalance formation had become this zone - reasons; 1. Price correction relieves the buying pressure and discounts additional opportunities 2. The second reason is due to the the previous Fibonacci "0" on the monthly aligns to the -0.618, -0.786 zone on the inverse Fibonacci.* See here* Weekly Chart - as posted The weekly imbalance zooming into the correction based on the engulfing move from the true imbalance rejection - formed an eight week period of trading ranges which tested tested the engulfing weekly low netting the the low , allowing buyers to begin the process of establishing the trading range as well as lower time frame of a rising channel creating higher lows and higher high wicks. From here this would ensue a breakout for buyers as a well established monthly range at the pivotal level gives a 95%confidence for a buying imbalance to continue to extension targets. Where we are at current Review of the imbalance - using the daily chart 1. The higher low formations using the daily lower trend line captures three points from the lower anchor. 2. The "liquidity zone" has been tested multiple times where wicks have failed to equate to equal lows. 3. The final retracement of the channel fails to breach the "0" Fibonacci on the monthly - this pivotal rejection was the final tick off the checklist - now to scale and in buy upon the 4hour timeframe. Daily Chart Bearish Continuation Judging by looking left - the zone below "0" has been tested - price will look to breakout from the low to correct to 0.694X as a test of the 4Hour correctional channel Correlation; Keep up to date with the AUD USD correlation & NZD CHF AUD USD Monthly Chart We are currently testing the imbalance - now awaiting a further confirmation that price will continue to fall back towards the previous imbalance or consolidate between 0.70 to 0.72X Price has showed consistent lower high formations with correctional weekly channels which have allowed opportunities to hedge and keep short. Weekly chart shows consistent weekly shorting in motion towards the imbalance on the monthly - the monthly however is technically a profit taking zone where price will now consolidate and correct again at the Fibonacci zone "0". The remaining zone which is an untested imbalance - shows a strong complex completion for the full Fibo extension NZD CHF Monthly chart What have the imbalances shown? The monthly sell opportunity was where price had created a "wick" high into the monthly zone but was instantaneously rejected on the daily level. This began with a two day sell off - but upon a retested, price failed to close within the desired zone on the monthly. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
Potential Shark Forming 🦈🦈NDZUSD - Beautiful .886 Tap on the Daily downtrend pullback, multiple BOS and momentum, looking for PA to follow the direction of this shark and continue to break the DL Whats your thoughts? ** Disclaimer *** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Short
by benalistarfx
4
potential Butterfly 🦋 GBPNZD - Potential Butterfly, looking for a weekly downtrend continuation after the bullish daily pullback. Multiple BOS and momentum break on LTF, potentially a nice swing short. ** Disclaimer *** These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Short
by benalistarfx
4